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Priebus out...

smartcooky said:
hmmm, that has a familiar ring to it. Reminds me of something I was reading about just recently, which happened in 1934 shortly after the dissolution of the Weimar Republic... something about long knives, I just cant recall! :D
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I did just look that up the other day, too.

This week has shades of it in a more slow-motion/non-violent way. If he cans Sessions when the Senate goes to recess, then yes, he's completed a transition from riding the party into power to creating his own independent power base. He now has to play even more to that narrow rabid base of unwavering support while simultaneously feeling less restrained by establishment rules. I don't imagine much good will come of that.

While he's thankfully lacking the personal devotion and loyalty of the military, he is very much cozying up to law enforcement and overtly endorsing brutal treatment, especially of certain groups.
 
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I'd never heard of Preibus until this week, so I looked him up on Wikipedia - it looks as if I wasted my time, since he seems to be out already!
 
smartcooky said:
Well at the rate he is going, he will run out of lackeys... there will be no-one to lead.

Trump's biggest problem in this regard, IMO, is that he still has yet to figure out that you cannot run a COUNTRY the same way that you run a BUSINESS; being the President of a COUNTRY is not the same as being a CEO of your own small to mid-sized BUSINESS.

As an owner CEO, you have all the power to make Policy, and if members of the board disagree with you, they can resign or get fired. You just cannot do that as President, and expect to stay President for long.
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I can believe that Trump runs his business this way. I can't believe that you can be this dysfunctional and be a successful businessman. Why aren't I a CEO?
 
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smartcooky said:
Well at the rate he is going, he will run out of lackeys... there will be no-one to lead.

Trump's biggest problem in this regard, IMO, is that he still has yet to figure out that you cannot run a COUNTRY the same way that you run a BUSINESS; being the President of a COUNTRY is not the same as being a CEO of your own small to mid-sized BUSINESS.

As an owner CEO, you have all the power to make Policy, and if members of the board disagree with you, they can resign or get fired. You just cannot do that as President, and expect to stay President for long.
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You can if you continue to enjoy the support of enough people to make GOP Representatives and Senators feel worried that if the take a stance against you that they may lose their seat - either against the Democratic Party candidate in their next election, or in the case of people in safe seats, against a pro-Trump candidate in the primary.

That said, there are a lot of GOP Representatives and Senators who are very strongly pro-Trump in everything he says and does. Whether this is down to real respect and admiration for the President - which would weather criticism from within the party - or blind party loyalty - which would not; only time will tell.

I still expect Trump to serve a full term AND if he chooses to run for a second term, to get the GOP nomination (because a GOP where he's very likely to lose is screwed already) and to get close to, or win the electoral college a second time.
 
The Don said:
I still expect Trump to serve a full term AND if he chooses to run for a second term, to get the GOP nomination (because a GOP where he's very likely to lose is screwed already) and to get close to, or win the electoral college a second time.
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It is indeed awfully hard to challenge an incumbent within your own party.

Has there ever been a case where someone challenged a sitting incumbent, won the nomination, and actually won the White House? I don't think there has been. The closest I can recall is that Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford in 1976, and lost the nomination, but went on to become President four years later.
 
After sleeping this over, I come to the opinion that replacing Priebus with Kelly was one of the smartest possible moves Trump could have made in the current situation.

It's been pretty clear from the beginning of the Primaries that Trump is running not as a Republican but against all of the Republican establishment. So including a non-fan like Priebus as WHCoS has, from the outset, not been ideal. A CoS must have the President's utter trust, and Priebus never had that. he was a consolation to the GOP, and a weakness on Trump's chess board. Trump had to get rid of him sooner or later.
But who to pick instead?
Kelly is a good choice now, because he did run the DHS efficiently, quietly and, apparently, to the Donald's pleasure.

I think the move buys Trump a few more months.

Everybody seems to think that Sessions is safe for now, as he has more loyal support, especially in the Senate - but don't count on that. I have a feeling that Trump now considers playing the Senate, setting it up to fail by serving it nominees they must reject, and push legislative agendas that cannot go through. Then, as the campaigns for the midterm GOP primaries get near, field Trump loyalists against wavering incumbents!
 
dudalb said:
And I give Kelly about five months. IMHO the total chaos and insanity he is walking into is something his career as a Marine has not prepared him for.
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No, he lead US efforts in Haiti, that's about on par with working in this administration.
 
The day after Priebus was out of his job, rather than hiding, or starting a disgruntled routine, he went on Hannity - and continued to sing the High Praises for Donald:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB3l6DDvx2U

At 10:04 minutes:
Reince Priebus said:
I think people need to see more the human side of President Trump, that he is a genuine, decent, caring person that engages people. He is also extremely funny, I know you know that, I mean he can just crack you up all the time - and he is a good friend
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What the...???
 
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a_unique_person said:
I can believe that Trump runs his business this way. I can't believe that you can be this dysfunctional and be a successful businessman. Why aren't I a CEO?
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Who keeps saying he's a successful businessman? His primary business is licensing his name to developers, and his name has value as a luxury brand largely because of his TV show. He ran his AC casinos into the ground, filed six bankruptcies, ripped off his suppliers and contractors, etc. He's not even a big shot in the New York real estate world. If he had put his inherited fortune into the S&P he'd be far richer today. This "successful businessman" business is just part of his snake oil.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/opinion/sunday/trump-the-bad-bad-businessman.html
http://www.newsweek.com/2016/08/12/donald-trumps-business-failures-election-2016-486091.html
 
Bob001 said:
If he had put his inherited fortune into the S&P he'd be far richer today.
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I've seen this said, but it is very misleading, if not just plain false.

It is based on the idea of taking Trump's estimated net worth today, and comparing it to what it would be if he had stuck the money in an index fund.

A more fair comparison would be if, every year, he siphoned off enough of that money from the index fund to buy private jets, and expensive homes, and buy furniture for married women he wants to have sex with, and generally live the lifestyle of the Rich and Famous. Donald Trump has been a very successful businessman by any reasonable standard.

Those around him haven't been as successful, though, as the people who voted for him will learn soon enough.

[ZtP]Are we great again, yet?[/ZtP]
 
Meadmaker said:
I've seen this said, but it is very misleading, if not just plain false.

It is based on the idea of taking Trump's estimated net worth today, and comparing it to what it would be if he had stuck the money in an index fund.

A more fair comparison would be if, every year, he siphoned off enough of that money from the index fund to buy private jets, and expensive homes, and buy furniture for married women he wants to have sex with, and generally live the lifestyle of the Rich and Famous. Donald Trump has been a very successful businessman by any reasonable standard.

Those around him haven't been as successful, though, as the people who voted for him will learn soon enough.

[ZtP]Are we great again, yet?[/ZtP]
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Assets are included in your net worth.
 
Meadmaker said:
I've seen this said, but it is very misleading, if not just plain false.

It is based on the idea of taking Trump's estimated net worth today, and comparing it to what it would be if he had stuck the money in an index fund.

A more fair comparison would be if, every year, he siphoned off enough of that money from the index fund to buy private jets, and expensive homes, and buy furniture for married women he wants to have sex with, and generally live the lifestyle of the Rich and Famous. Donald Trump has been a very successful businessman by any reasonable standard.
Those around him haven't been as successful, though, as the people who voted for him will learn soon enough.

[ZtP]Are we great again, yet?[/ZtP]
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Fair point. But any investment strategy presumes taking out enough money to live on. He could have financed much of his lavish lifestyle with borrowing for home mortgages, plane loans etc. (and almost certainly did), and serviced the loans by drawing on a relatively small percentage of the principal while the rest grew. An index-fund strategy would also have protected him from his AC losses and other bad judgments.

And typically a businessman achieves success by manufacturing or marketing products or services that the public wants to buy. Trump makes much of his money by selling his name as some kind of fantasy fulfillment. If we're electing "businessmen," I'd vote for Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Jack Welch etc., etc. long before Trump.
https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9248963/donald-trump-index-fund
http://investorplace.com/2015/09/donald-trump-vs-vanguard-500-index-vfinx/
 
I don't love him as a person but Bezos in my mind is a brilliant business man. He knows exactly what he is doing and has shown far reaching understanding of the online market. Trump has only shown an acumen to hustle people for money walking a fine legal line depending on attorneys to threaten and shake down opponents and partners alike.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Meadmaker said:
... Donald Trump has been a very successful businessman by any reasonable standard....
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Does this success include earning money by swindles and money laundering for rich Russian oligarchs?

Does it include selling EB1 Visas or whatever they are called? While that one may be legal, Trump obviously skirted the intent of the law.

And we don't really know, do we, whether his debts exceed his assets. It is possible he's living on foreign loans.
 
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Oystein said:
The day after Priebus was out of his job, rather than hiding, or starting a disgruntled routine, he went on Hannity - and continued to sing the High Praises for Donald:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB3l6DDvx2U

At 10:04 minutes:

What the...???
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The Don said:
GOP omerta ;)
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That and Reince is a career player. Taking your thumping quietly and with dignity shows you will not stir the pot over personal upset, which raises your value as a strategist/insider/party contact. Especially after being accused of leaking, he has to put his discretion on display (as odd as that wording is) at least in public on news shows.

ETA: The Preibus/Spicer faction already got their shots in yesterday through intermediaries, anyways :9.
 
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