Presidential Primaries 2012

[a_unique_person]

LOL. Fundies voting for a catholic. Hope they enjoy supporting the church of rome.

 

[timhau]

So Santorum finally - FINALLY - gets his turn to be the flavor-of-the-month.

Yech.

 

[IMST]

Only a couple weeks until the republican caucuses in Washington. I'm quite excited.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/32/republican-convention
Act Two.
Probably NSFW w/o headphones.

 

[Puppycow]

Delegate count:

Romney: 85
Santorum: 29
Gingrich: 29
Paul: 8
Huntsman: 2
(1144 needed to win)

Santorum and Gingrich are tied in delegates, but Santorum has The Big Mo.

Update:
Romney: 105
Santorum: 71
Gingrich: 29
Paul: 18
Huntsman: 2
(1144 needed to win)

Now I think that Santorum can more plausibly argue than Gingrich that he's the one anti-Romney voters should rally around. Gingrich finished dead last in Maine, Minnesota and Missouri (he wasn't even on the ballot in Missouri) and a distant third in Colorado. Bettors at Intrade also think Santorum has a much better chance of being nominated than Gingrich.

 

[andyandy]

Clean Sweep: Rick Santorum Defeats Mitt Romney In Three States

This changes the betting somewhat. A couple days ago it was here:


Now:
Romney: 78.1% -7.9%
Santorum: 13.0% +9.9%
Gingrich: 3.5% -0.7%
Paul: 2.5% -0.5%

Delegate count:

Romney: 85
Santorum: 29
Gingrich: 29
Paul: 8
Huntsman: 2
(1144 needed to win)

Santorum and Gingrich are tied in delegates, but Santorum has The Big Mo.

Romney 73%
Santorum 14%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

Interesting - Romney's moving down, but Santorum not moving much up. Guess the difference is the chance of a brokered convention (and someone like Jeb Bush - who's now 3% gaining the nomination)

Sarah Palin's at 0.5% - now that would be a soap-opera

 

[Arisia]

Well, it looks like Super Tuesday might actually mean something!

 

[andyandy]

Also interesting that Santorum is now leading national polling -

RCP Average 2/8 - 2/17

Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, Paul

34.3 27.7 14.5 12.3

Santorum up by 6.6% on Romney - although that's not translating to a big shift in the intrade betting. Is that because people don't believe Santorum has the money/on the ground organisation to win? Or because he's just seen as the latest in a long line of here-today, gone-tomorrow "not Romney" candidates?

 

[IMST]

Intrade's blocked at work for me. What are the numbers like for the general at the moment?

 

[hgc]

Intrade's blocked at work for me. What are the numbers like for the general at the moment?

Obama 60%
Romney 30%
Santorum 5%

 

[JoeB]

Intrade's blocked at work for me. What are the numbers like for the general at the moment?

Obama 59.4%
Romney 29.7%
Santorum 4.7%
Gingrich 1.4%
Paul 1.3%

Dem: 60.0%
Repub: 39.1%

 

[hgc]

It's been a long time since I struck C. "B." Roemer due to irrelevance. But now he has struck back. He has announced (finally!) that he's dropping out of the GOP race, and also (!) that he will be running for the Reform Party (remember them?) nomination.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/02/roemer-running-as-independent-115180.html

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News
W. "M." Romney •
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News •
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty •
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père) •
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China •
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News •
M. Bachmann •
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson (free the buds!) •
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan
H. Cain •
D. Trump
S. Angle
C. "B." Roemer •
R. Paul (le fils)
F. Karger •
R. Perry •
R. Moore •
T. McCotter •
D. Duke (All new! Frosty beard!) •

Dem
B. Obama •
R. Terry •

Libertarian
G. Johnson •

Reform
C. "B." Roemer •

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump (Hair today, gone tomorrow)
H. Schultz (the first barista president?)

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •

 

[Spindrift]

The Rent is Too Damn High
J. McMillan •

That's reminds me. I saw Jimmy McMillan, gloves and all, at a rest stop on the Jersey Turnpike a couple weeks ago.

He is unique looking but I couldn't place him at first. Then someone else walked up and said "Aren't you the Rent is too high guy?" and the light bulb went off.

He's the first presidential candidate of the 2012 season I've seen in person.

 

[JoeB]

What a sideshow this would be.

Donald Trump told CNBC he would “seriously, seriously” consider jumping into the White House race if Rick Santorum wins the GOP presidential nomination.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/21/trump_may_reconsider_presidential_bid.html

 

[hgc]

Donald Trump told CNBC he would “seriously, seriously” consider jumping into the White House race...

Right. And I'll seriously, seriously consider hopping to the moon on a po-go stick.

 

[IMST]

No ashes for Santorum at the debate. I have a sad.

 

[Puppycow]

It seems to be agreed that Santorum had a bad debate.

Out of Air in Arizona

That Was Not the GOP Debate Rick Santorum Needed

Waiting to see if this translates into falling poll numbers.

Already seems to be affecting the betting at Intrade.

Romney: 79%
Santorum: 6.3%
Gingrich: 4.5%
Paul: 3.0%

 

[Puppycow]

Nate Silver projects Romney to win the most delegates on Super Tuesday.

Here's his forecast:
Romney: 217
Santorum: 107
Gingrich: 61
Paul: 25
Uncommitted: 27

 

[Puppycow]

Trouble with the caucuses in Washington state:

Why hundreds of caucus-goers were turned away in Kennewick

Organizers overwhelmed by nearly double the anticipated turnout

By Michelle Dupler

Tri-City Herald

KENNEWICK — Heather Duncan of Benton City hoped to be elected a delegate at Saturday's Republican caucuses in Kennewick so she could go on and represent her community at GOP county and state conventions.

But Duncan and an estimated 1,500 other people who showed up at the Three Rivers Convention Center hoping to participate were told at about 10:30 a.m. — some after standing in line for 90 minutes — that they wouldn't be allowed in.
. . .
Benton County Republican Party members who organized the caucuses said they predicted — and prepared — for 2,000 people to show up and participate.

Their jaws dropped when they saw people packed into the convention center's hallways and spilling outside.

"We where overwhelmed," said Tony Benegas, who ran the Kennewick caucuses. "It's tough because it's all volunteers — nobody gets paid to do this."
. . .
The party was under pressure to finish by 11:30 a.m. so results could be tabulated and turned over to the state party.

"We did pull the leadership aside and said, 'What are we going to do?'" Benegas said.

The only apparent choice was to close the doors and turn people away, he said.

"I am extremely sorry we could not accommodate everyone," he said. "I apologize to those folks who we had to turn away. We fit in as many as we could, but we had more than we could physically fit in the rooms."

 

[IMST]

I went to the WA caucuses. It was hilarious. My entire precinct was convinced that Gingrich was the one that could beat Obama. Because debating. I signed in for Santorum, convinced the one person leaning Romney to go with Gingrich, her second choice, and then on the issues matters used vaguely conservative language to argue moderate to liberal positions. And they freakin' loved me. Even though I disagreed with everyone else at the table on candidate (and most of the issues even in my stated opinions) I got credentialed to the district caucus. Where I get to do it again.

 

[hgc]

I went to the WA caucuses. It was hilarious. My entire precinct was convinced that Gingrich was the one that could beat Obama. Because debating. I signed in for Santorum, convinced the one person leaning Romney to go with Gingrich, her second choice, and then on the issues matters used vaguely conservative language to argue moderate to liberal positions. And they freakin' loved me. Even though I disagreed with everyone else at the table on candidate (and most of the issues even in my stated opinions) I got credentialed to the district caucus. Where I get to do it again.

All I can say is: Be Careful. You have tasted the honey of adulation, but it is a trap. Don't be seduced into basking in the admiration of your new, Republican friends. You will wake up one day early next November having convinced yourself, by imperceptible steps, that Romney is the preferred candidate.