Presidential Primaries 2012

A couple of housekeeping chores -- C. Christie is giving a clear "no" and so is struck. J. Bolton is noted as a Fox Newser. K. Baily Hutchison is struck for losing her primary bid for governor.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News and The Learning Channel
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence (Look for early declaration from here -- I predict by March 2011)
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump
 
Obama is pretty much a shoe-in for another term unless he's involved in some sort of insane scandal. The republicans don't have anyone remotely capable of taking him on in 2012.
 
So, don't people start to declare around about now? IIRC, Obama declared his candidacy in Febuary 2007..
 
Undesired Walrus said:
So, don't people start to declare around about now? IIRC, Obama declared his candidacy in Febuary 2007..
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Yes, it's time to start handing out dots to these characters. Of the GOP field, I'm 100% certain only of M. Huckabee and W. "M." Romney. I also think that T. Pawlenty and J. Thune are pretty good bets to take the plunge. N. Gingrich's very public dosey-doe is simply PR to keep jerking the rubes for a few more shekels -- it couldn't be more obvious. The buzz around M. Daniels is intensifying, as is the "draft" C. Christie movement. There is also buzz building for J. Huntsman. That one sounds particularly like insider wankery.

Of course the biggest wild card is S. Palin. Poll numbers show her to be absolutely toxic in the middle of the electorate, but she's too dense to let that influence her decision. In any case, she's also incredibly lazy and undisciplined, so is seriously hobbled. I think in the end, she'll opt to attempt to play king-maker, and find new ways to milk the rubes.

My system for updating the list is that I will add a dot (meaning the candidate is running) to the name upon the announcement of an exploratory committee or similarly definitive utterances by the candidate. I will strike a name if the candidate says unequivocally that they are out, or if some overwhelming externality makes it obvious.
 
hgc said:
What does it take to become a presidential mentionable? Well, I think that if political superstar Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota bandies your name about, you've arrived. Thus Steve King, from neighboring Iowa, joins the fray. She's also taken herself out, and gets her strike today. I hope to remove it and add it often over the next couple of years' action.
http://iowaindependent.com/21051/steve-king-for-president
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Here's another opportunity, hgc:

"Bachmann considering White House bid"
By: CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney
January 5th, 2011
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/05/bachmann-considering-white-house-bid/

Found in this thread which was quickly derailed.

From your earlier link:
As for herself, Bachmann said, “Goodness, I’ve only been in the House for three years, so, no, I’m not considering anything like that.”
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But four years there is enough.
 
Not too much excitement today, except that M. Bachmann has earned the first un-strike of the cycle, coming back into contention after previously pulling her name out. Perhaps she's answering the call of Jesus to run for higher office, or perhaps she just hears the phone ringing, and assumes it's Jesus calling. Who knows? (Thanks to GrayArea)

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News and The Learning Channel
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence (Look for early declaration from here -- I predict by March 2011)
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump
 
Question: Does the sudden focus on S. Palin's "take back the 20" target list ad of Dem seats, including that of Rep Giffords, cause a sharp drop in her prospects for 2012?
 
So what about a Glenn Beck / Romney ticket? :|

On Palin - her popularity is a bit of a mystery to me. You can be dumb and be a good president, but she has a foolish streak that I think will gradually wear down any presidential chances she might have had. Maybe she could work for Fox news someday if Beck becomes president. (Oh, I scared myself!)

Karl Rove is a smart guy and said it pretty well - something like she needs do decide if she wants the reality tv fame or the presidency.
 
hgc said:
Question: Does the sudden focus on S. Palin's "take back the 20" target list ad of Dem seats, including that of Rep Giffords, cause a sharp drop in her prospects for 2012?
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Well it won't hurt her with her dyed in the wool fans, but for the moderate and more reasonable centerists, it's not helping any.

So, yes. it's going to hurt her in the long run.
 
hgc said:
Not too much excitement today, except that M. Bachmann has earned the first un-strike of the cycle, coming back into contention after previously pulling her name out. Perhaps she's answering the call of Jesus to run for higher office, or perhaps she just hears the phone ringing, and assumes it's Jesus calling. Who knows? (Thanks to GrayArea)

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News and The Learning Channel
W. "M." Romney, noted health care reformer
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul (le père)
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (Jeesh! Is he still stinking up the joint?)
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence (Look for early declaration from here -- I predict by March 2011)
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels (Lots of buzz from the tiny, sane GOP faction)
G. Johnson
J. Bolton of Fox News
C. Christie
P. Ryan

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump
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You forgot Andy Martin
 
Alferd_Packer said:
Well it won't hurt her with her dyed in the wool fans, but for the moderate and more reasonable centerists, it's not helping any.

So, yes. it's going to hurt her in the long run.
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Some of the pundit mandarins (Krauthammer, Rove) over at the GOP media operation (Fox News) have already been administering the first of the thousand cuts to come. They never wanted her to actually run for president, and will certainly ensure that her credibility as a national leader in Teabagistan continues to ebb.
 
Tim Pawlenty is definitely going to run. The dude is on a book tour selling his memoir. In New Hampshire and Iowa. I think it's officially time to move him out of the "might be" to "will be" column in our minds.
 
Sarah Palin isn't going to be the 2012 Republican candidate...Liberals you can get that dream out of your little heads right now.

Seriously, you're wasting your time these 4 years trying to trash her in the hopes that she runs against Obama.

it ain't gonna happen.

The election season is gonna come around and your gonna see Obama up against Huckabee, Romney or even Christie...and then you're gonna say to yourselves, "I wasted the last 4 years on my PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) for this!?"
 
deepatrax said:
Sarah Palin isn't going to be the 2012 Republican candidate...Liberals you can get that dream out of your little heads right now.

Seriously, you're wasting your time these 4 years trying to trash her in the hopes that she runs against Obama.

it ain't gonna happen.

The election season is gonna come around and your gonna see Obama up against Huckabee, Romney or even Christie...and then you're gonna say to yourselves, "I wasted the last 4 years on my PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) for this!?"
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Boosting the Palin persona as the face of the GOP is never a waste of time.
 
The GOP media has been putting too much emphasis on Sarah Palin and they really need to start marketing someone better. I would never vote for Palin, I might even vote for Obama instead of her. GOP needs to come up with something decent quick, Ron Paul would be great but he is not what the "conservatives" want. Maybe McCain could run again, he changes his positions all the time but at least he is a real person and somewhat independent minded.

I think something like David Petraeus with Allen West as the vice president could be a real good ticket, I don't know if Petraeus has any interest in running but he would get support from both parties. Allen West would get some of the black vote, but both being military men might make it a bit too militaristic.
 
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It looks like we'll have a better view of the Republican field in about seven months. According to this press release (albeit from a website with which I am not familiar), there will be a Republican Presidential debate around Labor Day.

CNN and Tea Party Express will co-host a primary debate among the 2012 Republican presidential candidates during Labor Day week 2011. The candidates will spar in Tampa, Florida, the site of the 2012 Republican National Convention. The debate will focus on wide-ranging topics with a specific emphasis on the issues that matter most to Tea Party Express: the economy and government spending. More details about the debate will follow.
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If this happens it will be interesting to see how Kaloogian, Russo, and Wierzbicki's sponsorship of the event shapes the questioning and the winnowing. Their last set of candidate choices didn't fare so well in the general election.
 
A Laughing Baby said:
Tim Pawlenty is definitely going to run. The dude is on a book tour selling his memoir. In New Hampshire and Iowa. I think it's officially time to move him out of the "might be" to "will be" column in our minds.
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I was trying to imagine how bored I'd have to be to read Tim Pawlenty's memoirs, but I got scared and had to stop.
 
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