Presidential Primaries 2012

hgc said:
It'll be 3 years until we get close to the answer that this thread asks, but we might as well get started.

GOP
S. Palin (a colossus bestrides the world)
W. "M." Romney
M. Huckabee
N. Gingrich (my perennial favorite)
B. Jindal (already says he's out)
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge (abortion position update alert!!!)
J. DeMint
C. Crist (here's a hint: teh gay)
R. Paul
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani (notice how the crazy increases with the list)
D. Hunter (my candidate for Next Serial Retread)

Dem
B. Obama
Click to expand...

As someone who almost invariably pulls the lever for the big R (in my state, we don't get sane Dems, and at least the Repubs here remember to take their meds) I don't think any of those mentioned will be on the top of the ticket.

That includes Obama, btw. Ok, that was a joke...sorta.

The public seems to choose presidents based on the percieved flaws of the previous president. Carter was seen as weak, Reagan was seen as strong. Bush Sr. was seen as a cold fish, Clinton played a sax and felt our pain. At the end of his two terms, Clinton was percieved as a lying womanizer, Bush Jr. was a straight talking teetotaler. At the end of his two terms, Bush was seen as an embarassingly stupid cowboy who couldn't string two sentences together whereas Obama was the suave former law professor with flowing cadence and dulcet tones.

My guess is that the next Republican candidate will be someone who has a proven track record of competence at an executive position, most likely someone who is currently (or was until very recently) in an executive position. I think the biggest thing that is going to stick to Obama is the feeling that he simply isn't competent as an executive. For those who are ideological, they might dislike him becase of policy position X, but that's not the general public. Voters seem to choose style, percieved competence, and percieved character before ideology, because most voters really aren't that ideological.

Jindal has developed a reputation as being very competent as an executive, and likely would have a very good shot at getting the nomination despite any other issues he might have, but he isn't going to run. Jan Brewer is even a possibility, simply because she's gotten her name out there and is a current governor. Paul Ryan has gotten alot of exposure in the past couple of years, even someone like Chris Christie. Someone who is actually doing something right now that voters approve of, as opposed to someone who did something 4 years ago. I would not be surprised if someone with (currently) very little national name recognition got the Republican top spot.
 
MikeMangum said:
As someone who almost invariably pulls the lever for the big R (in my state, we don't get sane Dems, and at least the Repubs here remember to take their meds) I don't think any of those mentioned will be on the top of the ticket.

That includes Obama, btw. Ok, that was a joke...sorta.

The public seems to choose presidents based on the percieved flaws of the previous president. Carter was seen as weak, Reagan was seen as strong. Bush Sr. was seen as a cold fish, Clinton played a sax and felt our pain. At the end of his two terms, Clinton was percieved as a lying womanizer, Bush Jr. was a straight talking teetotaler. At the end of his two terms, Bush was seen as an embarassingly stupid cowboy who couldn't string two sentences together whereas Obama was the suave former law professor with flowing cadence and dulcet tones.

My guess is that the next Republican candidate will be someone who has a proven track record of competence at an executive position, most likely someone who is currently (or was until very recently) in an executive position. I think the biggest thing that is going to stick to Obama is the feeling that he simply isn't competent as an executive. For those who are ideological, they might dislike him becase of policy position X, but that's not the general public. Voters seem to choose style, percieved competence, and percieved character before ideology, because most voters really aren't that ideological.

Jindal has developed a reputation as being very competent as an executive, and likely would have a very good shot at getting the nomination despite any other issues he might have, but he isn't going to run. Jan Brewer is even a possibility, simply because she's gotten her name out there and is a current governor. Paul Ryan has gotten alot of exposure in the past couple of years, even someone like Chris Christie. Someone who is actually doing something right now that voters approve of, as opposed to someone who did something 4 years ago. I would not be surprised if someone with (currently) very little national name recognition got the Republican top spot.
Click to expand...

Interesting analysis, but I doubt the GOP will go with an unknown. GOP nominees in my lifetime:

1956 Eisenhower. Sitting President and former war hero.
1960 Nixon. Sitting VP.
1964 Goldwater. Senator and famed author of best-selling Conscience of a Conservative.
1968 Nixon. Former VP.
1972 Nixon. Sitting President.
1976 Ford. Sitting President.
1980 Reagan. Former California governor and famed actor, finished second for nomination in 1976.
1984 Reagan. Sitting President.
1988 Bush Sr. Sitting VP.
1992 Bush Sr. Sitting President.
1996 Dole. Senate Majority Leader and former VP candidate.
2000 Bush, Jr. Sitting Texas Governor and son of former President.
2004 Bush, Jr. Sitting President.
2008 McCain. Senator, finished second for nomination in 2000.

Of those, the least well-known at the time of his nomination was Goldwater.
 
Gingrich Update!!!

Well, Newt makes it official: He's considering running for president. He'll decide, as we knew already, soon after the November elections, perhaps dragging it out until Feb next year.

I'll be watching to see how closely he tracks with his main rival, Sarah Palin. Already, he's followed closely on the heels of her idiotic Twitter postings about the heart-stabbing mosque in downtown Manhattan with his own suggestion that the US ought to follow Saudi Arabia's lead on issues of religious freedom. If that's not a declaration of running in the Republican presidential primary, I don't know what is.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/38401943/ns/sports-othersports/
(I don't know why this article is on NBC Sports website. It came up high in Google results.)
 
I notice that Romney is keeping a very low profile and trying to ignore the whole Tea Party uproar. He is trying to position himself as a mainstream conservative who can appeal to moderates while not making enemies of the Tea Party wing.
I still think that Newt will not get far. Too many people in the party see him as someone who had his chance back in 1994 when he became speaker and pretty much blew it.
 
Last edited:
Bush le frère declines.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News (former half-term governor)
W. "M." Romney
M. Huckabee of Fox News
N. Gingrich of Fox News
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
 
If she wins the South Carolina's governor's race, which seems almost a done deal, Nikki Haley might get a lot of attention. Fiscal conservative, but seems to be moderate on most social issues,or at least does not stress them. She is of Sikh Descent, and attends both a Methodist Church and a Sikh temple.
Of course that might be a negative among some GOP voters, but she might have Sarah Palin's appeal without Sarah Palin's negatives. And she is prettier.....and, let's face it, that is an advantage.
 
We on the Presidential Primaries 2012 thread executive committee have created a new feature -- the Opposes Mosque at near Ground Zero symbol: ◊

If we missed any, please write in.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News (anti-mosque trailblazer) ◊
W. "M." Romney ◊
M. Huckabee of Fox News ◊
N. Gingrich of Fox News ◊
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty ◊
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul
A. Keyes
J. Bush
R. Giuliani ◊
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King ◊
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
 


Oh, God! Oh, God! Make it stop! This can't be happening. J. Bolton, Cheney's cat's paw in Powell's and then Rice's State Department, is making sweet goo-goo noises about running for president. Let's join in welcoming him to the fun.

... also, A. Keyes gains an anti-mosque diamond pendant. But he may eventually have to be moved to a new Natural Law category. Natural Law: the invisible pink dragon of the crackpot political theory contingent.

GOP
S. Palin of Fox News (anti-mosque trailblazer) ◊
W. "M." Romney ◊
M. Huckabee of Fox News ◊
N. Gingrich of Fox News ◊
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty ◊
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul
A. Keyes ◊
J. Bush
R. Giuliani ◊
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King ◊
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson
J. Bolton

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News[/quote]
 
You knew it was coming. He craves publicity. He's got a big mouth. He holds mega-press events for the non-firing of party-girl beauty queens, where he displays absurdly pompous magnanimity. And about all, every four years he talks how things would be different if he were prez, so that Chris Matthews can ooze all over him for a few months.

Yes, you know he's never in a million years gonna run for president, but he sure is gonna fuel idiot speculation.

Welcome to everyone's favorite short-fingered vulgarian from Queens: Donald Trump. He was recently in the news saying that he offered x millions to the developer of the (sorta, kinda near) GZ Islamic Cultural Ctr for the property, so he gets an anti-mosquer diamond pendant.


GOP
S. Palin of Fox News (anti-mosque trailblazer) ◊
W. "M." Romney ◊
M. Huckabee of Fox News ◊
N. Gingrich of Fox News ◊
B. Jindal
T. Pawlenty ◊
K. Bailey Hutchison
M. Sanford
D. Patreus
T. Ridge
J. DeMint
C. Crist
R. Paul
A. Keyes ◊
J. Bush
R. Giuliani ◊
D. Hunter
J. Huntsman Amb. to China
M. Steele
J. Ensign
H. Barbour
R. Santorum of Fox News
M. Bachmann
R. Cheney
M. Pence
S. King ◊
R. Ailes of Fox News
G. Pataki
S. Brownback
J. Thune
M. Daniels
G. Johnson
J. Bolton

Dem
B. Obama

Anti- Certain Things Too Much Habituated in the 2 Major Parties
L. Dobbs of Fox News
D. Trump ◊
 
Now if you want a Indy candidate who could actually have an impact, I suggest hizzoner Bloomburg.........
 
dudalb said:
Now if you want a Indy candidate who could actually have an impact, I suggest hizzoner Bloomburg.........
Click to expand...


He hasn't made the list because he says, consistently and unequivocally, that he won't do it.
 
dudalb said:
Now if you want a Indy candidate who could actually have an impact, I suggest hizzoner Bloomburg.........
Click to expand...

Do you really think this country is so far gone as to elect a Jew as President?
 
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