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Predict The Electoral College

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[Imgw=640]http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/lD61g.png[/imgw]

I may be overly optimistic on Ohio and Arizona but I think she pulls out a squeeker there and Donald may pull off Utah.
 
I might flip Ohio and NC in my prediction. Major push by Clinton campaign in Ohio shows it's closer than media polling shows and her campaign has a GOTV operation. The new voter fraud supress the African American vote laws in NC have been successful.
 
dudalb said:
We can take FBI email leaks off the list.
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SezMe said:
Well, there was a revelation from the FBI but not what Don the Con hoped for. The email issue is dead, although such a late news bulletin probably won't have much effect.
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True, but even the admission that there's nothing new to see gets the story back in the news and if you've got enough low-information voters or people looking for the tiniest fig-leaf of a reason to vote for Trump then that may be enough.

After all, in order to explain why "there's nothing more to see here", the news agencies need to describe the "e-mails scandal" in full. :rolleyes:
 
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The Don said:
True, but even the admission that there's nothing new to see gets the story back in the news and if you've got enough low-information voters or people looking for the tiniest fig-leaf of a reason to vote for Trump then that may be enough.

After all, in order to explain why "there's nothing more to see here", the news agencies need to describe the "e-mails scandal" in full. :rolleyes:
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For those voters who just arrived from a fourteen month tour of Venus with no communications back to the home planet? Read some of the articles or watch some of the video of this news item. None of them go into explanation or recap. It was sort of like "Germany Surrenders".

Here's the AP story.
REIMS, France (AP) — Germany surrendered unconditionally to the Western allies and the Soviet Union at 2:41 a.m. French time today. (This was at 8:41 p.m. Eastern war time Sunday, May 6, 1945.)
The surrender took place at a little red school house that is the headquarters of Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower.
The surrender was signed for the Supreme Allied Command by Lt. Gen. Walter Bedell Smith, chief of staff for Gen. Eisenhower.
It was also signed by Gen. Ivan Susloparov of the Soviet Union and by Gen. Francois Sevez for France.
Gen. Eisenhower was not present at the signing, but immediately afterward Gen. Alfred Jodl and his fellow delegate, Gen. Admiral Hans Georg von Friedeburg, were received by the supreme commander.
They were asked sternly if they understood the surrender terms imposed upon Germany and if they would be carried out by Germany.
They answered yes.
Germany, which began the war with a ruthless attack upon Poland, followed by successive aggressions and brutality in concentration camps, surrendered with an appeal to the victors for mercy toward the German people and armed forces.
After signing the full surrender, Gen. Jodl said he wanted to speak and received leave to do so.
"With this signature," he said in soft-spoken German, "the German people and armed forces are for better or worse delivered into the victor's hands.
"In this war, which has lasted more than five years, both have achieved and suffered more than perhaps any other people in the world."
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Notice how they don't tell the reader much about the war, who started it, where there were advances and setbacks, etc.... Why? Because everyone knows the story.

Emailgate is not quite WWII, but the parallel works for me. Everyone knows all about the emails, Comey's November surprise and the accusations. All the reports are saying, with various degrees of "wow", is that Comey has now yet again reversed himself.

Remember, you're hoping (in order to win prognostication stripes) for idiots who only hear simple words to want to look for complex explanations. They don't hear that. They hear, "Hillary Guilty; Hillary Bad" or "Hillary Innocent; Hillary Not Bad"(they won't go so far as "good").

The hidden factor in all this is that most of those people had already decided and they weren't enough to give Trump the lead in the swing states. It'll be an early night on Tuesday.
 
I sincerely hope you're right but Trump is just doubling down on it and saying it's evidence that the system is rigged and Hillary is protected.

The 'no smoke without fire' brigade are going to lap that up.

Comey has had a massive effect on this election - remember Hillary was sweeping it before his announcement. He may not have facilitated a Trump win but he has ensured a Clinton administration will be less effective by saving the Republicans asses.
 
Incidentally, I'm far from a fan of litigation culture but surely at some stage there has to be some consequences for the constant lies that are told about Hillary?
 
Ethan Thane Athen said:
Incidentally, I'm far from a fan of litigation culture but surely at some stage there has to be some consequences for the constant lies that are told about Hillary?
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Not really. The bar for libel/slander is really high in the US for public figures.
 
Worst case a slim Clinton win by 12 votes (275/263). This is unlikely. More likely is a serious Clinton win by over a hundred EC votes (323 to 215).
 
In order from a as strong as reasonably possible Clinton victory to as strong as reasonably possible Trump Victory.

Scenario 1: - Hillary takes Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire. 322 to 216 win for Hillary.
Scenario 2: - Hillary takes New Hampshire and Nevada but loses either Florida or (more probably) North Carolina. 307 or 293 to 260 or 245.
Scenario 3: (And this would be my bet) - Hillary only takes New Hampshire and loses Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. 270 to 266 win for Hillary.
Scenario 4: (IMHO the only reasonably possible Trump Win) - Trump wins New Hampshire. 270 to 266 win for Trump.
Scenario 5: Extreme outlier - Upset victory for Trump in Colorado or Pennsylvania.

Possible wildcard in all scenarios: A faithless elector. Politically interesting but I don't see a scenario in which it could tip the election.
 
More bad news for the Orange Menace.

An important question about the surge of early votes is whether the increased numbers represents new voters or merely “cannibalizes” the votes of people who would have turned up at the polls anyway on Election Day. To find the answer, Smith used a database he’s built to compare this year’s early voters against a list of people who voted in 2012. His conclusion: hundreds of thousands of new black and Hispanic voters are casting ballots, an ominous sign for Trump. “Of the 707,844 voters in Miami-Dade, 201,000 did not vote in 2012—and 127,000 of them are Hispanic,” he says. “Hispanic voters are over-performing their share of the electorate.”*

Among the 117,000 African Americans who voted early, 22,500 didn’t vote in 2012. “Basically, one in five blacks and one in three Hispanics didn’t vote in 2012 in Miami-Dade and have already cast a ballot,” said Smith. “I have a hard time believing that many of these first-time voters are in the Trump camp after his scorched earth campaign against immigrants and, specifically, Hispanics.”

Broadening the lens to Miami’s designated market area (which includes Broward and Monroe counties) doesn’t improve Trump’s performance. Of the area’s 1.3 million early voters, nearly 351,000 did not vote in 2012—and 47 percent are Hispanic. “The numbers are even worse for Trump,” said Smith.
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