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Predict The Electoral College

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  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .
Clinton 317. The get out the vote ground game here in Florida will cause her to out perform the polls. Same with Nevada and North Carolina.
 
MikeG said:
:D Luckily, I know you're joking.

319 Hilary
219 Trump
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Not really. I'm worried that at some point in the next 24 hours that something will drop which will skew things decisively and finally in Trump's direction.

  • A successful terrorist attack on the US, claimed by ISIS or another Islamic terrorist organisation
  • The FBI claiming that they have foiled such an attack
  • More FBI leaks and relevations regarding the emails - all nonsense or irrelevant
  • A story in the media detailing horrible crimes committed by the Clintons - maybe allegations of child molestation

Of course nothing seems to damage Trump permanently.
 
I'm going for the optimistic scenario.
Hillary 324
Orangutan 208
McMullin 6

Hillary wins all of ME, NH, OH, NV, AZ, and NE2.
Orangutan wins FL
McMullin wins Utah

It's depressing that the optimistic scenario is not simply 538-0.

And my apologies to a whole primate species.
 
ddt said:
I'm going for the optimistic scenario.
Hillary 324
Orangutan 208
McMullin 6

Hillary wins all of ME, NH, OH, NV, AZ, and NE2.
Orangutan wins FL
McMullin wins Utah

It's depressing that the optimistic scenario is not simply 538-0.

And my apologies to a whole primate species.
Click to expand...

You misspelled "orangeutan".
 
The Don said:
Not really. I'm worried that at some point in the next 24 hours that something will drop which will skew things decisively and finally in Trump's direction.

  • A successful terrorist attack on the US, claimed by ISIS or another Islamic terrorist organisation.........
Click to expand...


  • Why would this impact on Clinton? She's not in charge of anything at the moment, and is rather occupied. She couldn't really be blamed for any such security lapse.
 
MikeG said:
Why would this impact on Clinton? She's not in charge of anything at the moment, and is rather occupied. She couldn't really be blamed for any such security lapse.
Click to expand...
No, but things like terrorist attacks play into the hands of candidates that play the "law and order" card, in this case Trump. Specifically, a terrorist attack clearly shows that all those evil muslims must be deported at once. Even if the attack was not made by a muslim, it's still the muslims' fault. Isn't that crystal clear?
 
Well, if the FBI foils such an attack, it may not have much of an effect on the voting public.

Setting that aside though, I read a statistic that of the 200+ million eligible voters in the US, only around 57% voted in the 2012 election, or around 115 million (I'm estimating; not doing actual math here, FYI). I'm guessing that this election will barely top 50%, despite exhortations to vote from President Obama and other members of both political parties, because people are just too disillusioned with this election cycle in general to bother. I'd love to be proved wrong on that, by the way. Given that, we've already had around half of the people who will vote turn in their ballots thanks to early voting, meaning that this Tuesday will not have as much of an effect as one might otherwise think (nearly 40 million early votes have been cast already). There would have to be something drastic, like a nuclear bomb being dropped somewhere in CONUS, for people to flock so much to Trump at this point, I think.

I don't really have a prediction, per se; I do think Clinton will top 300 EVs and will win the election, but at this point I wouldn't want to predict which state will go to who. I did see something that said South Carolina might possibly be in play, but who the hell knows at this point. So, to cleanse the palate of all you disillusioned voters out there, I give you... EPIC RAP BATTLES OF HISTORY: HILLARY CLINTON VS. DONALD TRUMP!!!

 
ddt said:
No, but things like terrorist attacks play into the hands of candidates that play the "law and order" card, in this case Trump. Specifically, a terrorist attack clearly shows that all those evil muslims must be deported at once. Even if the attack was not made by a muslim, it's still the muslims' fault. Isn't that crystal clear?
Click to expand...

About as clear as why using the wrong computer to send emails is the end of the world when Hillary does it, but not when Colin Powell or Jeb Bush do the exact same thing.
 
The Don said:
Not really. I'm worried that at some point in the next 24 hours that something will drop which will skew things decisively and finally in Trump's direction.

  • A successful terrorist attack on the US, claimed by ISIS or another Islamic terrorist organisation
  • The FBI claiming that they have foiled such an attack
  • More FBI leaks and relevations regarding the emails - all nonsense or irrelevant
  • A story in the media detailing horrible crimes committed by the Clintons - maybe allegations of child molestation

Of course nothing seems to damage Trump permanently.
Click to expand...

We can take FBI email leaks off the list.
 
MikeG said:
About as clear as why using the wrong computer to send emails is the end of the world when Hillary does it, but not when Colin Powell or Jeb Bush do the exact same thing.
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It was actually GW Bush, when he was president. But yeah, I agree.
 
Foolmewunz said:
It's almost midnight (here) on the 5th.

Based on the current RCP map, showing 216-164 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Clinton will pick up the following:

*NH 4
ME - 2
ME2 - 1
PA - 20
MI - 16
NC - 15
FL - 29
CO - 9
NM - 5
NV - 6

Hillary Clinton - 323
Donald Trump - 215

Clinton might get +1 in NE 2. There hasn't been a poll there since forever, but while they have Bernie doing the midwestern states, the Dems are skipping it. I guess they think Bernie delivers more in IA, CO, AZ, NV. He had dedicated supporters in all of them, particularly NV as we all should recall.


*NH polls... don't believe the Trump surge. It's a dead heat, not a Trump lead. Gravis Marketing and another even worse poll (American Research) are the only reason Trump's showing a lead in the RCP average. I believe that how goes NH also goes ME2.
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Foolmewunz said:
ETA: Like Silver, Rasmussen, Fox, et al I reserve the right to adjust those numbers as more polling becomes available.
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Ohio may be coming home. Donnie is making fun of Jay Z for a reason. He and Beyonce and LeBron got out a lot of support. Black voters are being called home by the Obamas, too.

I am thinking of adding 19 to Hillary's column. I'll let you know at the press conference at the New Bigly Great Foolmewunz Resort and Casino.
 
The Don said:
More FBI leaks and relevations regarding the emails - all nonsense or irrelevant.
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Well, there was a revelation from the FBI but not what Don the Con hoped for. The email issue is dead, although such a late news bulletin probably won't have much effect.
 
SezMe said:
Well, there was a revelation from the FBI but not what Don the Con hoped for. The email issue is dead, although such a late news bulletin probably won't have much effect.
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Well, the net effect could be based on:

22 million people had cast advance votes BEFORE the Comey Sandbag-agram.
11.4 million more have voted since then

The GOP may have gotten their window to preserve the House and Senate. They still leave Trump struggling to break 200 EV.
 
SezMe said:
I've noticed you link to Twitter a lot. I just read an article that says a lot (~15%) of Twitter posts are from bots, not people. Ya gotta be careful.
Click to expand...

Accounts with blue checkmarks are verified. That tweet is from Glenn Thrush Chief Political Correspondent POLITICO and Senior Staff Writer POLITICO Magazine.
 
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