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Predict The Electoral College

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Loss Leader said:
There are some great things about tracking the same group of people. It captures changing attitudes, perceptions and reactions. It does, however, have the weakness of an unfixable partisan lean.

In all, it's a useful tool when combined with other types of polling.
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In this particular case they didn't cap the demographic multipliers, so he's worth something like 80 times as much as the other voters.
 
Foolmewunz said:
I'm exercising my Ohio option, as mentioned earlier. There's got to be one that puts the talking heads in a tizzy and I think Clinton takes OH.

My guess, now is

Clinton 341 - Trump 197

(Those betting on the "one faithless elector" should note that we won't know that on election night. That only becomes a vote when the Electoral College votes.)

The final popular vote??? Anyone wanna pick the points. Based on adjusting the negatives (like the bias I believe is in the LA Times sampling and the IBD TIPP call list), I now think we're going to see

Clinton +5.
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Clinton +4
 
Seriously, though, this is my guess...

Hillary Clinton: 292
Donald Trump: 235
Gary Johnson: 5
Evan McMullin: 6
 
Loss Leader said:
Nate Silver is giving Clinton 302.
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302.2, even!

Of course that isn't the single most likely electoral distribution, it's just a weighted average. It's the number to pick if you want to get close, but not if you want to be exactly right, and not if you want to be closest.

Implicitly, I think the game here is to get closest, because that's what people remember after the fact.
 
Clinton 308 Trump 230

If I had stayed off the internet, I'd probably have predicted Clinton to reach 360 or more.

Even here in the OC, which is known as the Orange Curtain of Republicans, the Presidential vote is sure to go to Clinton this time. It's been 80 years since a Democrat won this county.

Fun fact: Orange County is currently 44%R-32%D and has a higher population than 20 US states ---> at 3.2m, a little more than Iowa. I wanted to see how many electoral votes are represented here even though CA is winner-take-all.
 
Sherkeu said:
Clinton 308 Trump 230

If I had stayed off the internet, I'd probably have predicted Clinton to reach 360 or more.

Even here in the OC, which is known as the Orange Curtain of Republicans, the Presidential vote is sure to go to Clinton this time. It's been 80 years since a Democrat won this county.

Fun fact: Orange County is currently 44%R-32%D and has a higher population than 20 US states ---> at 3.2m, a little more than Iowa. I wanted to see how many electoral votes are represented here even though CA is winner-take-all.
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It's also a county whose most famous resident is a rodent.
 
Meadmaker said:
Did you do that on purpose?


Two famous residents of Orange County: Mickey Mouse, and Richard Nixon.
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No, but your spoiler is awesome!

Many years ago, while temporarily working in the LA area, I heard a sports reporter on the radio whining about coach Chuck Knox going to the Seahawks, instead of the Rams. He said the Hawks were "a Micky Mouse team in a Micky Mouse town." I pretty much chortled, since the Hawks had a much better record the previous year and the Rams played in Anaheim.
 
So who won? Skeptic Tank? I was close for a non-Hillary win, although technically Shemp was closer.

My feeling is: nobody won. nobody.
 
Funny thread.

Foolmewunz said:
I'm exercising my Ohio option, as mentioned earlier. There's got to be one that puts the talking heads in a tizzy and I think Clinton takes OH.

My guess, now is

Clinton 341 - Trump 197

(Those betting on the "one faithless elector" should note that we won't know that on election night. That only becomes a vote when the Electoral College votes.)

The final popular vote??? Anyone wanna pick the points. Based on adjusting the negatives (like the bias I believe is in the LA Times sampling and the IBD TIPP call list), I now think we're going to see

Clinton +5.
Click to expand...


I think you owe us a name change. Foolmetwice, how does that sound?
 
wareyin said:
You haven't seen the demographic breakdowns, I take it? Trump lost among women, black, Latino, Asian, and "other" demographics. He won big among white men only, and white without a college degree.
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All groups will do much better under him. The dems have been very successful in dividing groups but now they have very little power. Take power from the corrrupt and let the healing begin.
 
logger said:
All groups will do much better under him. The dems have been very successful in dividing groups but now they have very little power. Take power from the corrrupt and let the healing begin.
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I remain amazed that anyone can think Trump is not corrupt.
 
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