Post-revolution polls in Egypt

[crescent]

From this link, previously quoted by AntPogo:

The constitution, which was ratified in a nationwide referendum in December with a relatively low turnout of around 35 percent, will also remain in effect.

From what I recall, the initial referendum (or perhaps the election before that) was boycotted by many of the more liberal, secular political parties.

You know, when Iraq was forming its government and constitution, the Sunni parties boycotted, and a Shia friendly government formed which further disenfranchised Sunnis and cemented that with a government and constitution written to favor Shias.

I think I heard that many of the more secular groups boycotted the first round of elections in Libya.

Boycotting elections seems to be a common, but very misguided tactic in fledgling democracies. I hope that if the Arab spring continues, that new groups will not keep making this mistake.

 

[Childlike Empress]

From what I recall

Here's a quite comprehensive "How did we get here" article.

If you click the "Livestream" link in my post three above yours you can see still thousands at Tahrir square in the middle of the night. Many (on Twitter) said that this was the largest single political rally in human history. Certainly in the millions alone in respective Cairo and Alexandria.

 

[A'isha]

Here's a quite comprehensive "How did we get here" article.

It is, actually. Definitely worth reading.

 

[Eddie Dane]

Maybe it's good that the Islamists immediately got to prove themselves in government.

Conclusion until now: they suck.

Now, let's have some real elections without the Army intervening. And hopefully someone ratonal at the helm who will be able to make deals, make all Egyptians feel included and keep Egypt out of the Sunni-Shia proxy war in Syria.

Unfortunately, Egypt is so deeply screwed on so many levels that even if we managed to clone Willie Brandt, George Washington and Nasser and combine them into one Egyptian super-hero, he still couldn't unscrew all that corruption, failing infrastructure, lack of agriculture etc etc.

 

[A'isha]

Maybe it's good that the Islamists immediately got to prove themselves in government.

Conclusion until now: they suck.

The Brotherhood (apparently drunk with success) decided it was a good idea to immediately try remake Egypt in their own image as soon as they took power, rather than actually try to govern the country and fix its many, many problems.

Unfortunately, Egypt is so deeply screwed on so many levels that even if we managed to clone Willie Brandt, George Washington and Nasser and combine them into one Egyptian super-hero, he still couldn't unscrew all that corruption, failing infrastructure, lack of agriculture etc etc.

One commenter whose name I sadly cannot recall now noted that, even if the Brotherhood had devoted all their energies to trying to actually fix the problems in Egypt's security and economy situation, there's no way they could have pulled it off. In other words, whoever took power after Mubarak was screwed.

It, perhaps, is a good thing that the Brotherhood were the ones in the barrel and screwed up so spectacularly by not even making the attempt to fix things, because this has massively, massively tarnished that organization in the eyes of Egyptians. On the downside, even if Morsi gets toppled and the Brotherhood run out of town, whoever replaces them doesn't really stand much of a chance of doing better in terms of fixing things, which means they're more than likely going to face the same kinds of angry protests that are going on right now.

 

[Eddie Dane]

The Brotherhood (apparently drunk with success) decided it was a good idea to immediately try remake Egypt in their own image as soon as they took power, rather than actually try to govern the country and fix its many, many problems.



One commenter whose name I sadly cannot recall now noted that, even if the Brotherhood had devoted all their energies to trying to actually fix the problems in Egypt's security and economy situation, there's no way they could have pulled it off. In other words, whoever took power after Mubarak was screwed.

It, perhaps, is a good thing that the Brotherhood were the ones in the barrel and screwed up so spectacularly by not even making the attempt to fix things, because this has massively, massively tarnished that organization in the eyes of Egyptians. On the downside, even if Morsi gets toppled and the Brotherhood run out of town, whoever replaces them doesn't really stand much of a chance of doing better in terms of fixing things, which means they're more than likely going to face the same kinds of angry protests that are going on right now.

I don't know.

Maybe demand a seat at the table in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, so you look good in the West and don't have to beat the war drum at home.
Then reorganise police to provide more security for Egyptians and tourists.
Looking all moderate and stuff, get IMF loan.
Invest in infrastructure (jobs, logistics and safety). No luxury in Egypt. I recently met an Egyptian who had lost both his children to Cairo traffic.
And he's a rich guy who had his children taken to school in a new Mercedes.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Bye Bye Mursi: Egypt's army gives Mursi 48-hours to step down

Egypt's armed forces warned on Monday that it will intervene if the people's demands are not met within 48 hours, after millions took to the streets to demand the resignation of Islamist President Mohammed Mursi.

In a statement read out on state television, the armed forces reiterated its "call that the demands of the people be met and gives (all parties) 48 hours, as a last chance, to take responsibility for the historic circumstances the country is going through."

"If the demands of the people are not met in this period... (the armed forces) will announce a future road map and measures to oversee its implementation," the statement said. [...]

Egypt's main opposition movement Tamarod, which led nationwide protests against Mursi, had earlier given the Islamist leader a deadline of Tuesday to resign as protesters took over his office's headquarters.

"We give Mohammed Mursi until 5:00 pm (1500 GMT) on Tuesday July 2 to leave power, allowing state institutions to prepare for early presidential elections," Tamarod said in a statement on its website.

Otherwise, "Tuesday, 5:00 pm will be the beginning of a complete civil disobedience campaign," it said. [...]

Well, I guess that's the only rational thing to do after the breathtaking vastness of yesterday's protests. Tamarod has some six-months transition plan leading to a new election. Let's hope the best. People power!

 

[Polaris]

One commenter whose name I sadly cannot recall now noted that, even if the Brotherhood had devoted all their energies to trying to actually fix the problems in Egypt's security and economy situation, there's no way they could have pulled it off. In other words, whoever took power after Mubarak was screwed.

The Ikhwan are David Lee Roth to Mubarak's Howard Stern!

 

[A'isha]

I'm seeing estimates being batted around that there are 33 million protesters in the streets of Egypt. That's over a third of the entire Egyptian population.

 

[Eddie Dane]

I'm seeing estimates being batted around that there are 33 million protesters in the streets of Egypt. That's over a third of the entire Egyptian population.

Jesus. And I thought I wasn't popular

 

[trustbutverify]

The Egyptian military hasn't given Morsi 48 hours to resign. They've given him 48 hours to "share power and diffuse the protests", however that would actually work.

The 33 million protester estimate is probably a wild exaggeration, given relevant precedent.

A military source said as many as 14 million people in this nation of 84 million took part in Sunday's demonstrations in sweltering heat. There was no independent way to verify that estimate, which seemed implausibly high, but the armed forces used helicopters to monitor the crowds.

Pre-Arab spring polls in Egypt seemed to reflect the opinions of a strictly fundamentalist population and overwhelming support for the Brotherhood. But it seemed from my reading that a common hatred for Mubarak was the main driver for these feelings. After his regime was ousted, it seemed a strong anti-fundamentalist/Brotherhood undercurrent began to bubble to the surface. I agree that any party achieving governance during this time would probably be screwed... to some extent. However, the Islamist character of the current regime has provoked a particularly venomous reaction.

 

[A'isha]

The Egyptian military hasn't given Morsi 48 hours to resign. They've given him 48 hours to "share power and diffuse the protests", however that would actually work.

The "Egyptian military has given Morsi 48 hours to resign" thing comes from the verbiage in their statement that "the armed forces repeat their call for the people's demands to be met", considering that the main demand of these protesters is that Morsi resign.

In any event, Morsi doesn't look like he's going anywhere just yet.

 

[trustbutverify]

The defense statement is somewhat vague, outside of the specific 48 hour window. To me, the gist of it is that Morsi is being given one last chance to somehow placate the crowds (while maintaining power) before being escorted off the premises. Maybe something is lost in the translation.

 

[Childlike Empress]

The Egyptian military hasn't given Morsi 48 hours to resign. They've given him 48 hours to "share power and diffuse the protests", however that would actually work.

Did you actually read the article? Even they have to mention the dots ANTPogo pointed out, but try to keep them as far from each other as possible, with a misleading (sub-)headline. "Even" they because ... are you able to connect those dots?

 

[A'isha]

The defense statement is somewhat vague, outside of the specific 48 hour window. To me, the gist of it is that Morsi is being given one last chance to somehow placate the crowds (while maintaining power) before being escorted off the premises. Maybe something is lost in the translation.

An Egyptian writer and novelist interviewed about it on NPR today said the army's statement was phrased very "diplomatically", but everyone (Morsi's bunch included) seems to be reading it as the army essentially saying "you're going to give in to the protesters' demands, whether voluntarily or involuntarily".

 

[CapelDodger]

An Egyptian writer and novelist interviewed about it on NPR today said the army's statement was phrased very "diplomatically", but everyone (Morsi's bunch included) seems to be reading it as the army essentially saying "you're going to give in to the protesters' demands, whether voluntarily or involuntarily".

The least they're saying is that things will change, get over it. "The armed forces put everyone on notice ...". Exactly how they'll change is still negotiable but I doubt Morsi has much room. So the road-map, which the protesters will no doubt accept for now.

It's a remarkable statement, full of patriotism and historic national mission (Nasser reference) and no religion. This, I imagine, will go down well, since nothing puts people off religious rule quite like the experience of it.

 

[trustbutverify]

An Egyptian writer and novelist interviewed about it on NPR today said the army's statement was phrased very "diplomatically", but everyone (Morsi's bunch included) seems to be reading it as the army essentially saying "you're going to give in to the protesters' demands, whether voluntarily or involuntarily".

I listened to that interview. It's natural that the regime would react to the statement that way.. as a declaration of a military coup. I've read the entire alert and as much commentary as I could. I see it as the army giving Morsi three choices: convince the crowds to back down (highly unlikely), resign or be resigned. Which is not quite the same as giving him 48 hours to get out of Dodge. Obviously, the chances of this regime surviving are exceedingly slim. Either way, that's just how I see it.

 

[geni]

I don't know.

Maybe demand a seat at the table in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, so you look good in the West and don't have to beat the war drum at home.

Talking to Isreali is politicaly dicey in that area. I doubt any leader would want the hastle.

Then reorganise police to provide more security for Egyptians and tourists.

Not viable within the availible timescale.

Looking all moderate and stuff, get IMF loan.

Lot of islamic groups still in play which makes loans tricky. The IMF also likes to get its money back.

 

[Childlike Empress]

I remembered where I read about the transition plans: Egypt: What if the President Is Toppled?

June 26th Article.

[...] On Saturday, June 22, the opposition forces launched an initiative dubbed “After the [President’s] Departure.” During a two-day conference, experts in all fields deliberated economic affairs, national security, the Sinai, and even the future of the Nile, following the Ethiopian bid to go ahead with the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam. Their goal: to manage the post-Mursi transition.

The opening session was attended by Dustur Party head Mohamed el-Baradei, Popular Movement founder Hamdeen Sabahi, and a plethora of other opposition leaders. In a speech, Baradei called on Mursi to resign “for the sake of Egypt and a new era.” [...]

Sounds like a plan (some legalese follows in the article, also touching on the constitutional court rulings from early this month see #453):

[...] Ahmad Eid, a Dustur Party official, said that the majority of opposition forces agreed that the chairperson of the Constitutional Court would take over presidential powers during any transitional period, provided that the post would be “honorary.” Full powers would be given to a government consisting of technocrats led by a figure that has popular approval and the respect of all political forces.

This government’s task would be to supervise security and the economy during the transition, while a committee would be formed to draft a new constitution and prepare laws for presidential and legislative elections.

This scenario proposed by Ahmad Eid is almost identical to the one put forward by the coordination committee for the June 30 protests, and called on all political factions to agree over it. [...]

 

[WildCat]

If they get a do-over let's hope they learned their lesson and keep religion out of the Constitution.