Pope Prophecy - need help debunking

[Confusion]

Hi folks,

I'm new here, and I need some help debunking something that has me scared. I am an atheist and a skeptic but I suffer from heavy existential anxiety and I've come across something I'm having trouble rationalising.

I'm sure you've all heard of St Malachy's Popes Prophecy. I've done a LOT of digging on this to try and help but I'm still scared and my anxiety is through the roof.

I've read through various cited sources including O'Briens work on the prophecy, and I'm well aware of the arguments against the prophecys authenticity (mottos only spot on until the publication date around 1590, errors in the mottos replicated from Panvinius' erroneous works).

I know all of this, and the rational part of my brain is trying to get through. However, one of the later post publication mottos, corresponding to pope Gregory XVI states "from the baths of etruria". As it turns out, Gregory was a Camaldolese monk, who originate from Balneum (Bath in latin), in Etruria (now Tuscany). So far, this pope has been the only pope from this particular order.

I've researched this endlessly, trying to find confirmation that somehow, the prophecies influenced the conclave, or i've tried to find rationale based in chance, coincidence and statistics.

My anxiety flares up when I find something that challenges my worldview. I can function when I know the world is a rational, scientific, materialistic place that makes sense. I can't handle this though. I know this might sound really stupid to some of you but I'm getting physically sick over this. Please help.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Hi folks,

I'm new here, and I need some help debunking something that has me scared. I am an atheist and a skeptic but I suffer from heavy existential anxiety and I've come across something I'm having trouble rationalising.

I'm sure you've all heard of St Malachy's Popes Prophecy. I've done a LOT of digging on this to try and help but I'm still scared and my anxiety is through the roof.

I've read through various cited sources including O'Briens work on the prophecy, and I'm well aware of the arguments against the prophecys authenticity (mottos only spot on until the publication date around 1590, errors in the mottos replicated from Panvinius' erroneous works).

I know all of this, and the rational part of my brain is trying to get through. However, one of the later post publication mottos, corresponding to pope Gregory XVI states "from the baths of etruria". As it turns out, Gregory was a Camaldolese monk, who originate from Balneum (Bath in latin), in Etruria (now Tuscany). So far, this pope has been the only pope from this particular order.

I've researched this endlessly, trying to find confirmation that somehow, the prophecies influenced the conclave, or i've tried to find rationale based in chance, coincidence and statistics.

My anxiety flares up when I find something that challenges my worldview. I can function when I know the world is a rational, scientific, materialistic place that makes sense. I can't handle this though. I know this might sound really stupid to some of you but I'm getting physically sick over this. Please help.

Hi there Confusion, and welcome.

I assure you that almost no one has heard of the St Malachy's Popes Prophecy.
I certainly haven't.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Just from taking a glance at the Wiki, it's obvious that this Prophecy is exactly like most of its kind:

vague enough for others to do the interpretation for you. It is an example of Cold Reading that "psychics" are really good at.

There is also the obvious Con of claiming to be from an older text, written at a time when the author couldn't possibly have known the future, but mysteriously only discovered after the event described had already passed. This is a trick to give the prediction credibility - problem is, of course, that it's not a prediction, it's a retelling, thus the accuracy.
The fact that the author used this trick strongly suggests that he was trying to deceive.

Don't you think the prophet would have mentioned that, shortly before the END, we would have 2 living Popes in Rome?


But instead of getting into the weeds of a specific doomsday prophecy, keep in mind that there have been hundreds and hundreds of Prophets of the Apocalypse, and not one of them has been right.
It's unlikely that this particular one will turn out to be the exception.

 

[Confusion]

Thank you.

I'm aware that the first half of the prophecies appear to be post-diction forgeries, but I can't rationalise how one of the mottos for a future pope (300 odd years after the publication date) could be so spot on about the pope being from a specific order in a specific location, and only this one pope has ever been from this order.

 

[Stylesjl]

Are you referring to this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prophecy_of_the_Popes

The Prophecy of the Popes (Latin: Prophetia Sancti Malachiae Archiepiscopi, de Summis Pontificibus, "Prophecy of Saint-Archbishop Malachy, concerning the Supreme Pontiffs") is a series of 112 short, cryptic phrases in Latin which purport to predict the Catholic popes (along with a few antipopes), beginning with Celestine II. It was first published in 1595 by Benedictine monk Arnold Wion, who attributed the prophecy to Saint Malachy, a 12th-century archbishop of Armagh.

Given the accurate description of popes up to around 1590 and lack of accuracy for the popes that follow, historians generally conclude that the alleged prophecy is a pseudepigraphic fabrication written shortly before publication. The Catholic Church has no official stance, though some Catholic theologians have dismissed it as forgery.[1][2]

I wouldn't really pay much attention, but I did learn something new!

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Thank you.

I'm aware that the first half of the prophecies appear to be post-diction forgeries, but I can't rationalise how one of the mottos for a future pope (300 odd years after the publication date) could be so spot on about the pope being from a specific order in a specific location, and only this one pope has ever been from this order.

how, exactly, are they spot-on?

how is a throw-away line a sufficiently specific description of a single individual?

Could not the same text have applied to many other people?
And what about the number of cases where the description is outright wrong? (like Clement XIII )

 

[Confusion]

Do you think that its likely the conclaves have been unofficially influenced by these prophecies? There are reports of some popes actively trying to fulfil their supposed prophecy.

 

[Confusion]

This is what im having a hard time with. This particular line. See, it couldn't really be applied to anyone else. Gregory XVI is the only pope to have ever come from the Camaldolese order, based in Balneum in Etruria.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

This is what im having a hard time with. This particular line. See, it couldn't really be applied to anyone else. Gregory XVI is the only pope to have ever come from the Camaldolese order, based in Balneum in Etruria.

Well, that is obviously wrong.

It could have applied to thousands of people.

You are only thinking of the persons who actually became Pope, and what we know about them. But that is a classical attention bias fallacy.
The chance to find something to link a Pope to a random line of text is rather high, as few contemporaries of a Bishop of Rome will have as much historical data preserved about them.

 

[Confusion]

I'm also kind of hoping that these prophecies maybe had some influence on who was elected? Do you think thats a possibility?

 

[Dave Rogers]

This is what im having a hard time with. This particular line. See, it couldn't really be applied to anyone else. Gregory XVI is the only pope to have ever come from the Camaldolese order, based in Balneum in Etruria.

Is the Camaldolese order actually based in Balneum? As far as I can see that's not far from Poppi, where it originated, but not the actual location; Bagno di Romagna (present day Balneum) is in Emilia-Romagna and Poppi is in Tuscany. In other words, the origin of Gregory XVI has been somewhat adjusted to agree with the prophecy. Take away the association with baths, which is a false association, and all you have is that Gregory XVI has some association with something that's associated with Etruria; I suspect the same could be said of the vast majority of Italians. It's the usual scam; say something vague so that people will stretch its meaning to find a possible loose association, then claim it as a precise prophecy.

Dave

 

[Confusion]

Thanks Dave.

I'm sorry everybody. This is anxiety talking. I don't want to believe this stuff. The rational part of my brain doesnt. But when I see something I, at least initally, can't explain, my amygdala crumbles and the world loses all logic.

 

[Puppycow]

Is this some kind of elaborate troll?

I'm sure you've all heard of St Malachy's Popes Prophecy. I've done a LOT of digging on this to try and help but I'm still scared and my anxiety is through the roof.

I've never heard of this so-called prophesy.

But OK, I'll humor you. Nothing here suggests some person saw the future through some sort of supernatural divination.

If someone makes 112 predictions and most of them are wrong but one turns out to be right (assuming you interpret it liberally), it means they were guessing. Making it up. Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

"Psychics" use the same trick: make lots of vague statements or predictions about things that might happen or might be true and hope that one or more of them is somewhat accurate. Ignore the misses and focus on the few rare hits.

 

[Confusion]

Thanks Puppycow. Again, I'm not here seeking arguments. I want all of your help to debunk this, as it's been scaring me.

 

[Puppycow]

I'm also kind of hoping that these prophecies maybe had some influence on who was elected? Do you think thats a possibility?

It's certainly possible. If the people in the conclave knew about the "prophesy" it might have influenced their decision process, especially if some of them wanted the "prophesy" to be true.

 

[psionl0]

I can't rationalise how one of the mottos for a future pope (300 odd years after the publication date) could be so spot on about the pope being from a specific order in a specific location, and only this one pope has ever been from this order.

Would you be just as uneasy if this were the prophecies of Nostradamus instead of a Papal prophecy?

The principle is much the same. Some of his quatrains were uncannily accurate. Some could be considered accurate if you interpret them the "right" way. Some could not possibly be true no matter how you interpret them and some are just sheer nonsense.

I'm sure that if you go through the Papal prophecies, you will see something similar. Make enough predictions and, like a stopped clock, some will turn out to be true.

 

[catsmate]

Hi there Confusion, and welcome.

I assure you that almost no one has heard of the St Malachy's Popes Prophecy.
I certainly haven't.

I have .
It was moderately popular with certain catholics here in Ye Olde Days.

It's a pretty obvious fake, for the reasons given.Specifically it has no historical record prior to c.1590 when Wion "discovered", when it was very convenient for the Papal conclave, none of Malachy's contemporaries referenced the purported "prophecies".

A little textual examination shows the "prophecies" are mainly plagarised from Panvinio, including several mistakes from his History of the Popes.

The Gregory XVI reference is an example of the attempts by proponents of the prophecies to support them; the reference to the Camaldolese Order is pretty strained. Bartolomeo Cappellari was born in Belluno (near Venice) which does not correlate with 'bath' in any reasonable sense.

 

[Confusion]

Is the Camaldolese order actually based in Balneum? As far as I can see that's not far from Poppi, where it originated, but not the actual location; Bagno di Romagna (present day Balneum) is in Emilia-Romagna and Poppi is in Tuscany. In other words, the origin of Gregory XVI has been somewhat adjusted to agree with the prophecy. Take away the association with baths, which is a false association, and all you have is that Gregory XVI has some association with something that's associated with Etruria; I suspect the same could be said of the vast majority of Italians. It's the usual scam; say something vague so that people will stretch its meaning to find a possible loose association, then claim it as a precise prophecy.

Dave

Apparently, Bagno Di Romagna WAS part of Tuscany until 1923.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Apparently, Bagno Di Romagna WAS part of Tuscany until 1923.

Which isn't really relevant to the prophecy in any way; the point is that there's no particular reason to associate the word "bath" with the Camaldolese order because it wasn't actually founded there, just somewhere near there. So the only association is with Etruria; depending on interpretation that could cover nearly half of Italy. Given the latitude of interpretation required, it more or less comes down to "The Pope is Italian," which is not an unusual attribute of Popes.

Dave

ETA: Or, maybe, "The Pope is a member of an Italian religious order." The prophecy is basically saying that the Pope is a Catholic.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Well, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, born in Buenos Aires, adopted name Francis would be "Peter the Roman", according to the prophecy.

Give me a minute to make that fit.