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Zogby has Obama increasing his lead to 7 (50%-43%) ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081030

Obama leads McCain by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, building on his 5-point advantage on Wednesday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

It was the second consecutive day Obama's lead has grown as the two-year presidential battle draws to a close. McCain is struggling to overtake Obama's lead in every national opinion poll and in many battleground states.

"This is not good news for McCain. The race was tightening for a few days but now it is going back the other way," pollster John Zogby said.
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Rasmussen has Obama increasing his lead to 5 (51%-46%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch
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Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-174.
Click to expand...
 
Latest Bush State polls ...

Colorado (9)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 9 (50%-41%)
October 28 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)

Florida (27)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)
October 29 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 28 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Tied (47%-47%)
October 27 - Suffolk: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)

Indiana (11)
October 30 - Indy Star/Selzer: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
October 28 - Research 2000: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 28 - Howey-Gauge: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: McCain by 6 (50%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 29 - CNN/Time: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 27 - SurveyUSA: Tied (48%-48%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Montana (3)
October 28 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 4 (48%-44%)

Nevada (5)
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 12 (52%-40%)
October 28 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 28 - Suffolk: Obama by 10 (50%-40%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 27 - PPP (D): Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)

North Dakota (3)

Ohio (20)
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 29 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 29 - Marist: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 28 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 28 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)

Virginia (13)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 28 - Roanoke College: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 27 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 27 - Washington Post: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 27 - VCU: Obama by 11 (51%-40%)

West Virginia (5)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: McCain by 10 (50%-40%)


Obama still has a lock on the Kerry States giving him 252 electoral votes to start with. He has a lock on 2 Bush States (Iowa-7 and New Mexico-5) giving him a total of 264 votes. Obama only needs 5 more electoral votes from any of the Bush States listed above to reach 269 (an electoral tie which gives Obama the win).
 
RCP just switched PA from solid Obama to leaning Obama:

10/30 Pennsylvania Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama Obama 311 - McCain 142
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Lower on the same page they still have him with a 9.5% PA lead. That's a pretty heavy lean.

There national poll average is 6.2% lead for Obama, up from 6.0% yesterday.
 
gdnp said:
RCP just switched PA from solid Obama to leaning Obama:



Lower on the same page they still have him with a 9.5% PA lead. That's a pretty heavy lean.
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It's probably because of the NBC/Mason-Dixon poll that has Obama's lead at 4. It's an outlier for now. A poll out today as well by CNN/Time shows the lead at 12. Five other polls came out yesterday showing an Obama lead between 11 and 14.
 
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Gallup has Obama gaining 2 points in the "traditional" poll (up by 5 - 50%-45%), and remaining unchanged in the "expanded" version (up by 7 - 51%-44%).

Fox has a national poll out showing Obama up by 3 (47%-44%)

Here are some updated Bush polls since this morning ...

Colorado (9)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 9 (50%-41%)
October 28 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 8 (53%-45%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)

Florida (27)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)
October 29 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 28 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Tied (47%-47%)
October 27 - Suffolk: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 31 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 27 - PPP (D): Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)

Ohio (20)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 30 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 7 (48%-41%)
October 29 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 29 - Marist: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 28 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 28 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 9 (49%-40%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)

Virginia (13)
October 30 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 29 - CNN/Time: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
October 29 - Associated Press/GfK: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 28 - Roanoke College: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 27 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 27 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 27 - Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 27 - Washington Post: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 27 - VCU: Obama by 11 (51%-40%)
 
David, I really think you should lay off the election until the result is called. You are going to give yourself a heart attack at this rate.
 
Anybody look into the projected weather reports in the swing states on election day? Bad weather may keep many voters away from the polls.
 
TexasJack said:
Anybody look into the projected weather reports in the swing states on election day? Bad weather may keep many voters away from the polls.
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That could actually be more good news for Obama, because the Democrats seem to be leading quite strongly in early voting. So if the weather is bad and keeps some people home, the edge in early voting is even more important since those votes have already been cast.
 
Current numbers from the Vote-Share at the Iowa Electronic Market...

Obama 54.5
McCain 46.9

That's a 7.5% spread in the nationwide popular vote. If this holds true, and I trust the IEM more than any poll, then Tuesday is going to be a real ass-kicking for the Republicans.

We shall see in... 5 days.
 
MattusMaximus said:
That could actually be more good news for Obama, because the Democrats seem to be leading quite strongly in early voting. So if the weather is bad and keeps some people home, the edge in early voting is even more important since those votes have already been cast.
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Good point, and it may keep away some more elderly conservative voters. Regardless, I'll be shocked if Obama loses, there are just too many things going his way.
 
Obama has many more offices in swing states, which should help the get-out-the-vote effort, and has a more energized base. I would be shocked if this election did not break all records for African American turnout. This should at least offset some of McCain's lead in demographics that tend to vote more reliably.
 
MattusMaximus said:
That could actually be more good news for Obama, because the Democrats seem to be leading quite strongly in early voting. So if the weather is bad and keeps some people home, the edge in early voting is even more important since those votes have already been cast.
Click to expand...
TexasJack said:
Good point, and it may keep away some more elderly conservative voters.
Click to expand...
Here comes the science.

"For nearly 95 percent of our observations, the effect of rain on vote share is positive, significant, and increases in magnitude as the county becomes more Republican," the study found.

Specifically, "for every one-inch increase in rain above its election day normal, the Republican presidential candidate received approximately an extra 2.5 percent of the vote," the study found. "For every one-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate's vote share increases by approximately 0.6 percent."
Click to expand...
 
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