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Poll Vault

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And Pew has it at +15. The other polls are in the 4-8 range. Looks like some tightening nationally.
 
Malerin said:
And Pew has it at +15. The other polls are in the 4-8 range. Looks like some tightening nationally.
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I'm not seeing any kind of trend I'd call "tightening". If you smooth out the noise, Obama's numbers have been going up steadily since mid-September, with a couple of brief plateaus but no real dips. McCain's numbers have been more volatile, but they've been bouncing around within a fairly narrow range of about 2 points, give or take, since the end of September.

The gap has probably just about peaked--it's been hovering around 6-8 points on average for most of October.

I definitely think we'll see some tightening when the actual votes are tallied, because I suspect the undecideds will break in favor of McCain, but I don't see the tightening showing up in the national polls yet.
 
chipmunk stew said:
I definitely think we'll see some tightening when the actual votes are tallied, because I suspect the undecideds will break in favor of McCain, but I don't see the tightening showing up in the national polls yet.
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And that's where we have to look closely at the map, as in how many are vunerable if McCain see the kind of election-day bounce Al Gore saw in 2000 (who was down by 5% a week before the election, but won the popular vote).

Same scenario for McCain, who's also running for the incumbent party. It's true that Bush is less popular than Clinton was in 2000, but it's also true that Obama is black.

In 2000, on election day enough voters changed their minds in the voting booth and fell back to the familiar to erase a 5-point deficit. If McCain sees the same phenomenon - and I believe he will - you have to look at the map and see which states are vulnerable.

Right away you'd think Indiana, Florida, Ohio and Missouri would fall to McCain. But even if you give him North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado as part of that November 4th comeback... he still loses 277 to 261.

It would have to be enough of a tide to turn another state, like Virginia or Pennsylvania. Rasmussen only has Obama up by 4 in Virginia, so I guess it's not out of the realm of possibility.

But again, we're not talking about science fiction here; we're talking about a scenario that happened just two elections ago. Only the Florida recount craziness has kept us from talking about it as proof of unreliable polling.
 
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David Wong said:
And that's where we have to look closely at the map, as in how many are vunerable if McCain see the kind of election-day bounce Al Gore saw in 2000 (who was down by 5% a week before the election, but won the popular vote).
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He was?

Article from October 30, 2000:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Bush: 47 - Gore 43
ABC News Bush: Bush 47 - Gore 47
Washington Post: Bush 47 - Gore 46
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby: Bush 45 - Gore 42

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/30/tracking.poll/index.html
 
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David, one thing you're not taking into account is just how energized the Democrats are this year. Especially the minority (specifically, black) vote is going to be huge in terms of turnout.

The minority turnout alone will likely tip states like Florida, Nevada, New Mexico & Colorado (high Latino populations) as well as Virginia & North Carolina (high black populations) towards Obama.

I get the sense that a very large "tsunami" is in the making. Just take a look at early voting among blacks as an early indicator...

The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress

According to Michael McDonald's terrific website, there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent). ...
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... The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total. ...
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Couple this with the fact that Obama has lately been polling slightly ahead of McCain with white voters in general, and I think the GOP is going to have a rough go of it come next Tuesday.

We will see.
 
The latest on battleground state prediction markets from the Yahoo Political Dashboard (YPD). Note these numbers are winner-take-all predictions.

Nevada
Obama 81.9
McCain 17.6

Colorado
Obama 87.9
McCain 16.4

Missouri
Obama 57.8
McCain 42.0

Indiana
Obama 38.2
McCain 64.9

Ohio
Obama 76.1
McCain 20.0

Pennsylvania
Obama 86.0
McCain 10.0

Virginia
Obama 82.0
McCain 15.1

North Carolina
Obama 58.0
McCain 38.0

Florida
Obama 69.9
McCain 28.6

Predicted outcome of the Electoral College
Obama 364
McCain 174

McCain seems to be favored to win Indiana now. This is the only real change in the market in the last few days, and as you can see, even with McCain taking IN he will still lose to Obama by a huge margin.
 
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Peephole said:
He was?

Article from October 30, 2000:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Bush: 47 - Gore 43
ABC News Bush: Bush 47 - Gore 47
Washington Post: Bush 47 - Gore 46
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby: Bush 45 - Gore 42

http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/30/tracking.poll/index.html
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Yep. From your link:

"A broader six-day tracking poll shows Bush with a 48 percent-43 percent edge."

He was up by as much as 7 just days before.

This has been much written about this election season, 5% is the figure they all throw around but, yeah, there's no question Gore made an election-day comeback when the undecideds all broke for the more familiar face. It's common knowledge, I've never seen anyone counter the idea.
 
McCain is getting 9% of the Democrats.

What percentage of Democrats does the Republican candidate usually get?

What is the principal driver for the Democrats that are voting for McCain?
 
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111580/Early-Voting-Now-18.aspx
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking data collected through Monday night indicate that 18% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted, and another 15% say they will vote before Nov. 4; so far the voter preferences of this early voting group are somewhat more tilted toward Obama than those who say they will wait to vote on Election Day...

The voter preferences of the group of 1,430 individuals who have already voted and who were interviewed by Gallup between Oct. 17 and Oct. 27 show a 53% to 43% Obama over McCain tilt.

Among the group of those who say they have not yet voted, but will before Election Day, the skew towards Obama is more pronounced, at 54% to 40%. By comparison, those who are going to wait to vote on Nov. 4 manifest a narrower 50% to 44% Obama over McCain candidate preference. (Across all registered voters over this time period, Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 43% margin).
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David Wong said:
ABC News:

McCain creeps closer to Obama.

Though I'm not ready to get as silly as Dick Morris, who says McCain should win but that "we shouldn't count Obama out yet."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/undecideds_should_break_for_mc.html

And I don't know if I buy terms like "energized" regarding the voters. Every election the young, excitable voters get "energized" but who shows up? The elderly. Not, "energized," just reliable.
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I think every election, there's a candidate who strikes a chord with young voters. Sometimes the same candidate also strikes a chord with other voters, sometimes not. But the young voters will only turn out in large numbers for their number one candidate. Older voters are more likely to turn out even if they have to hold their nose to vote for their second or third choice.

In this election, the youth candidate is the overall front-runner. Last time that happened was Reagan. I don't think young people will sit this one out.
 
Two things: How are pollsters dealing with the fact that early voting in key states is heavily democratic and therefore shrinking the pool of hardcore democrats who would take part in a poll? I would think at the least this is causing the number of undecideds to be inflated.

Also, national trends are interesting, but pretty much irrelevant. If Mccain is doing well in Texas, New York and California, his national numbers will also look closer, but so what? How does that help him in Virginia and Ohio, which both show Obama up by 9? And even if the national polling reflects tightening in the state polling, the numbers of voters is steadily dwindling thanks to early voting.
 
Malerin said:
Two things: How are pollsters dealing with the fact that early voting in key states is heavily democratic and therefore shrinking the pool of hardcore democrats who would take part in a poll? I would think at the least this is causing the number of undecideds to be inflated.
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The polls ARE NOT excluding early voters. Right now, it's looking like the early voters are the only edge Obama has.

Here's the most shocking fact from that Rasmussen poll, and this is why I think it's now 50/50 that McCain will win this thing:

"As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided."


That "enthusiasm gap?" The more "energized" voters for Obama?

Doesn't exist. Period. Of those who ARE going to vote, THIS RACE IS TIED.

It's true Obama has earned himself about a 2-3 point cushion thanks to early voting (Rasmussen says he has a 9-point lead, and other estimates say about 20% have voted so far). But that's all he has right now, those numbers in the early voting are the fingernails he's hanging by.

This is 2000 all over again. When the chips were down, all the undecideds broke for the more familiar face. The McCain campaign strategy is working to perfection (ie making voters scared of Obama) and six days should be plenty of time to shave off 1-2 points off Obama's numbers. That's all he needs.

If Obama wins, history may say that it was early voting that won it for him, because he was able to get his people to the polls BEFORE the tide turned toward McCain.
 
David may have a valid point about the early voting deciding it for Obama.

But, by that same argument, early voting broke in favor of the GOP in 2000 and 2004, handing them the victories.

Early voting is still voting. Obama is still going to win, imo.

Note to David: You really need to look at state-by-state polls. National polls are nice brain candy, but the Electoral College is what matters.
 
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