Poll Vault

[not_so_new]

This seems odd....

Iowa (7)
September 21 - Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
September 19 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Something seems off there.

I always hold a good deal of skeptisim for polling numbers.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Economy hurting GOP in fight for Congress?

I speculated in a previous post that perhaps the trouble McCain is having with economic issues in the past week could carry over onto the GOP in general. Well, it seems that there's a new poll (again, only one so far) that indicates this is the case...

Democrats widen lead in battle for Congress

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Call it the overlooked election. An intense battle is going on right now for control of Congress, but it's overshadowed in the media by a historic race for the White House.

So which party has the upper hand in the fight for Capitol Hill?

The answer, according to a new national poll, appears to be the Democrats. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Tuesday, 56 percent of those questioned are backing the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42 percent support the Republicans.

That's a change from immediately after the GOP convention, when the Democrats had only a 3-point lead lead over the Republicans, 49 percent to 46 percent. ...

Now how much this is due to the inevitable demise of the GOP convention bounce and how much is due to the issue of the economy is still unknown. But if this bears out in other polls (anyone seen any on this question?), then not only is McCain's situation looking bleak, but it also seems the Republican party in general is in trouble in November.

 

[MattusMaximus]

This seems odd....

Something seems off there.

I always hold a good deal of skeptisim for polling numbers.

Your skepticism is well-placed. I tend not to really trust polls unless they can show consistent results from poll to poll. That's why whenever I post something about a specific poll here (such as my last post) I always ask others if they've seen similar polls on the same question.

If you haven't, you should watch this video about polling...

 

[MattusMaximus]

Here is another interesting poll tidbit:

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters

From the linked article:

"The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues."

I was going to ask you if this was the only poll you've seen on the question, but when I read the article I saw this:

... Other September polls have shown Obama making progress in recent weeks with one-time Clinton backers and doing better with them than in the AP-Yahoo! News survey. One by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama with 78 percent of their support and McCain with 18 percent; another by ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama ahead 72 percent to 23 percent.

Those figures measured Clinton supporters who are registered voters — who in the AP-Yahoo! News poll leaned toward Obama over McCain 61 percent to 26 percent. The discrepancies in the polls might come from how they were conducted. ...

So, on balance, it seems that while Obama is still having some trouble convincing the die-hard Clinton supporters (not surprising), he has made at least some progress in appealing to them as a group. Now, the real question is will it be enough progress to ease his victory in states that went overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primaries?

I find it tough to gauge from these damned inconsistent polls. Grrr

 

[Wangler]

I was going to ask you if this was the only poll you've seen on the question, but when I read the article I saw this:




So, on balance, it seems that while Obama is still having some trouble convincing the die-hard Clinton supporters (not surprising), he has made at least some progress in appealing to them as a group. Now, the real question is will it be enough progress to ease his victory in states that went overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primaries?

I find it tough to gauge from these damned inconsistent polls. Grrr

The part that I find hard to believe is that the "die hard Clinton supporters" are even considering McCain.

True die-hards like Hillary for her policial stances; methinks the "die hards" only think they are die hards, when they are actually "undecideds"

 

[BenBurch]

Indeed the true die-hards seem to be either voting for Cynthia McKinney or WRITING IN Hillary.

 

[Foolmewunz]

11 this year. Sorry, you have to cater to NJ too.

And you might have trouble losing some of those 40 states by 10 million votes. And by some of them, I mean all of them. You might consider dropping a 0, there.

I meant in total. In the world of absurd fantasy math, you could win the White House with a plurality of 1 vote each in 11 states (thanks for the update), and then not take a single vote in 39 states.

 

[Pookster]

This seems odd....



Something seems off there.

I always hold a good deal of skeptisim for polling numbers.

Obama has been polling very well in Iowa for some time.

 

[MattusMaximus]

The part that I find hard to believe is that the "die hard Clinton supporters" are even considering McCain.

True die-hards like Hillary for her policial stances; methinks the "die hards" only think they are die hards, when they are actually "undecideds"

Agreed. The "die-hard" label is a misnomer, in this context.

 

[gdnp]

Before bemoaning the fact that EVERY Hillary supporter will not support Obama, it is important to realize that not every supporter necessarily agreed with her stands on the issues. Some may have felt that having a woman in power outweighed any disagreements on the issues, and those people may be switching back to McCain/Palin because they are more philosophically in tune with the Republicans. Others vote on personality: My wife is turned off by Obama's style, but will hold her nose and vote for him.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Wow.

Obama up by 9

 

[chipmunk stew]

Here is another interesting poll tidbit:

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters

From the linked article:

"The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues."

People make too much of "Clinton voters". The only number that matters is the aggregate. If Obama has pulled ahead despite reluctant Clinton voters, then either they'll boost his numbers or they'll maintain the status quo. Either way, Obama is ahead.

There must be other segments of the voting population that matter more in this process, because Clinton voters haven't budged since June, but the numbers have.

Let's move on to things that matter...

edit: It's not as though Obama's share of Clinton voters is shrinking! I mean really...

 

[chipmunk stew]

Wow.

Obama up by 9

It's an outlier, but it balances out another outlier putting McCain up by 2. The RCP average has Obama up by 3.0 this morning.

 

[Pookster]

Wow.

Obama up by 9

A note from the ABC News/Wash Post poll ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.

The survey also found that the strong initial public reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, has cooled somewhat. Overall, her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent.

She remains broadly popular -- 52 percent of voters view her positively -- but there have been some notable declines. Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent.

And probably the worst news for McCain in all of this ...

Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits.

 

[Pookster]

Here is a summary of most of the national polls out recently ...

September 24 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
September 24 - Ipsos-McClatchy: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 23 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 3 (47%-44%)
September 23 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
September 23 - Rasmussen Tracking: Tied (48%-48%)
September 23 - Battleground Tracking: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 22 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 4%-Barr 1%)
September 18 - Pew Research: Tied (46%-46%)


In two days, you have one poll showing McCain with a 2 point lead, and one with him being down by 9. I'm guessing it's Obama by 2-3 points right now.

 

[Pookster]

Also from the WaPo poll ...

Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention. McCain is the choice of 86 percent of Republicans, while about as many Democrats, 88 percent, back Obama.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 today (49%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

It’s the first time in more than two weeks that Obama has enjoyed a lead larger than a single percentage point

As consumer and investor confidence keeps tumbling, 47% of voters now say the economy is the top voting issue for Election 2008. National security is a distant second at 19%. Seventy-six percent (76%) now say the economy is getting worse and just 25% of voters currently support the financial rescue plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Obama's progress on the Rasmussen poll resembles taking a long, painful crap. The economic crisis is seemingly his constipation pill.

 

[Pookster]

Obama's progress on the Rasmussen poll resembles taking a long, painful crap. The economic crisis is seemingly his constipation pill.

Rasmussen's poll doesn't swing as much as many others. It's why the convention bounces were so small.

Another national poll out - Hotline/FD Tracking has Obama up by 6 (48%-42%). This is up 2 points since yesterday for them as well.

 

[gdnp]

Let's see how they look monday after the debate. Obama is going in with high expectations which may blunt any benefit from a good performance. On the other hand, if he looks presidential and holds his own it may blunt McCain's last remaining advantage, foreign policy/national security.