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General Election: McCain vs. Obama

RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcCain (R)Obama (D)SpreadRCP Average09/05 - 09/07--48.345.4McCain +2.9ABC News/Wash Post09/05 - 09/07LV4947McCain +2CBS News09/05 - 09/07655 RV4644McCain +2USA Today/Gallup09/05 - 09/07823 LV5444McCain +10CNN09/05 - 09/07942 RV4848TieRasmussen Tracking09/05 - 09/073000 LV4847McCain +1Hotline/FD Tracking09/05 - 09/07924 RV4444TieGallup Tracking09/05 - 09/072733 RV4944McCain +5
See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

 

[David Wong]

If there's good news for Obama supporters, it's that Obama's convention bounce had him up 6-8 points, where McCain's bounce has him up by 2 or tied, everywhere but at Gallup.

If the bounce fades then it doesn't go back to tied, it goes back to McCain down by 3 or so. Guess we'll see.

 

[Puppycow]

All I can say is, Joe Biden better win that debate.

I would rather have Hillary debate Palin than Biden, but it's too late now.

I thought at the time that an Obama/Clinton ticket would have been the best, and I'm sorry that Obama or the people around him couldn't see that.

I'm sorry to say that I agree with Ed Rollins

Commentary: Obama wrong to spurn Hillary, pick Biden

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Ten days ago, Sen. Joe Biden was the most brilliant vice presidential pick imaginable. He was going to add the experience and foreign policy credential that Sen. Barack Obama's thin resume was missing.

The so-called expert commentators were arguing that blue-collar Joe was going to guarantee Pennsylvania (because he was born in Scranton) and other states and get Catholic voters because he is a pro-choice Catholic.

I guess they forgot that Joe didn't do so well with Iowa Catholics (23 percent of the population) when he campaigned there for more than a year in the Democratic caucus race. But then getting less than 1 percent of the vote and coming in fifth place showed he didn't do real well with any voter group in Iowa. Nor did he do well anywhere else, other than Delaware.

Then, after Sen. John McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, people laughed and said Biden was going to wipe the floor with Palin in the vice presidential debate. Now, after her incredible convention speech, Biden is saying that he's the underdog because he's not a very good debater.

If Obama had done the smart thing, he would have picked Sen. Hillary Clinton for vice president. If he had, he would have united his party for sure and energized his base.
He just couldn't do it and maybe thought he didn't need to do it. He was wrong. That choice would have meant that McCain probably wouldn't have picked Palin. And if McCain had picked anybody else from his shortlist, the Republican convention would have been boring, and the party's base would not have been motivated.

The one thing we know for sure -- the selection of Biden did the least to enhance any ticket since George H.W. Bush picked Dan Quayle back in 1988. This is turning out to be another election the Democrats were convinced they couldn't lose. So far, the selection of Palin has been a game-changer and has energized my party like no one since Ronald Reagan did four decades ago.

The polls are back to even again. The only difference is the Republicans now have a communicator to match Obama and the Democrats have on their ticket an older veteran of Washington politics to match McCain's experience. The reformer Obama who was going to be the candidate of change is now running with Mr. D.C. establishment.

 

[Pookster]

ABC News/Washington Post shows Obama with a 1-point lead (registered voters), and McCain with a 2-point lead (likely voters) but the big takeaway from the poll, mentioned before they even get to the bottom line results, is that white women have switched to McCain (PDF file) in huge numbers.

How huge? White women preferred Obama to McCain by 8 percentage points in August. They now prefer McCain over Obama by 12 percentage points. That's a staggering switch and indeed, I can't help wondering how Obama could still possibly be in the lead among registered voters with that result.

1,133 adults including 961 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% (for the registered voters).

(emphasis added)

I wonder what the margin of error is for that subgroup. Typically they're much larger than the poll's margin of error. I don't doubt there hasn't been a shift, but this just seems too extreme to me.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

 

[Pookster]

To add to the above, from the CNN poll ...

The gender gap is also apparent when it comes to whether Palin is qualified to serve as president. Fifty-seven percent of male respondents said Palin was qualified, 14 points higher than women. A majority of women polled, 55 percent, said Palin is not qualified.

"In a hypothetical race with no running mates, [Sen. Barack] Obama gets 49 percent and McCain gets 48 percent," he said. "In the real world, the McCain/Palin ticket and the Obama/Biden ticket are tied at 48 percent apiece, indicating that the running mates bring virtually no votes to the ticket by themselves."

Given those findings in the CNN, I don't see much support for McCain to have swung over so many white women over the past few weeks. CNN even has this for all women ...

Another factor may be gender. "Although Sarah Palin is the first woman on a GOP ticket, women nationwide are sticking with Obama -- 52 percent of women are planning to vote Democratic, while 51 percent of men are in the GOP column," Holland added.

The numbers just don't work for me, but they are two different polls.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

One week ago today, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage (see recent daily results). Now, for the first time in Election 2008, Rasmussen Markets data shows the race to be a toss-up.

It looks like the McCain bounce has likely peaked. The coming days will be interesting to see if he can maintain 48%.

 

[David Wong]

All I can say is, Joe Biden better win that debate.

I would rather have Hillary debate Palin than Biden, but it's too late now.

I thought at the time that an Obama/Clinton ticket would have been the best, and I'm sorry that Obama or the people around him couldn't see that.

Why can't people understand that "winning the election" CANNOT be the primary criteria for choosing a VP?

He didn't reject her because he though Biden gave him a better chance at winning (he knew he didn't). He rejected her because trying to govern with Hillary and Bill both in the whitehouse, both trying to be President, would have been a disaster.

You can't just look at the election. That's also why that whole "you need to pick somebody from a key battleground state!!!" logic was ridiculous. They never do that, and for good reason. You actually need someone who would make a good VP, not just a good VP candidate.

All the difference in the world. That Obama took the long view on this makes me respect him more than if he had just made the quick grab for votes with no eye on how he'd actually govern later.

 

[gdnp]

All the difference in the world. That Obama took the long view on this makes me respect him more than if he had just made the quick grab for votes with no eye on how he'd actually govern later.

I'd like to hear the Republican response. Really think that Palin would make the best VP?

 

[Brainster]

John Edwards was clearly chosen because of his excellent qualifications hair to be vice president.

VPs are always chosen to provide balance to a ticket, whether it's geographic, experience, charisma, etc. Joe Biden was not chosen because he was the best candidate, but because he addressed a glaring weakness: Obama's thin resume for the job.

Gallup shows McCain winning independents:

John McCain's 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

This is a crosstab from the Gallup tracking poll of 2,733 registered voters. The error margin for the poll is +/-2%, but it is clearly higher for the independent voter subgrouping.

 

[David Wong]

McCain is up by 5 on Gallup for the second consecutive day, so yeah that is the high water mark for his convention bounce.

First debate is September 26th, I assume the race will be tied again going into that.

 

[David Wong]

On this day in 2004...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html


Looks like Bush was up by 7 to 16 points, depending on the poll.

 

[chipmunk stew]

On this day in 2004...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html


Looks like Bush was up by 7 to 16 points, depending on the poll.

McCain should average about a 6 or 7 point lead over Obama through the end of this month if he's going keep up with Bush.

He better hope his convention bump hasn't peaked.

 

[Pookster]

NBC News/WSJ has Obama up by 1 (46%-45%) ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122099348086116259.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

The poll was taken starting Saturday -- two days after the end of the Republican National Convention ended in St. Paul, Minn. -- through Monday night. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, meaning either candidate could be slightly ahead.

The Palin effect helps explain why Sen. McCain is now even with Barack Obama in the head-to-head race.

The survey had good news for Sen. Obama as well, showing that he improved his standing with the electorate in areas where he had been seen as weak. More voters found said they were comfortable with him as president that they did in a Journal poll three weeks ago, as did the portion who said they were confident in his ability to be commander in chief.

 

[Pookster]

Interesting tidbit from the NBC poll ...

Politics aside, Sen. Obama and Gov. Palin emerged in the poll as the most desirable dinner dates. Asked who they would most like to have dinner with, 40% picked Sen. Obama. Gov. Palin was second with 33%. The white men finished last: 15% want most to dine with Sen. McCain, and for Sen. Biden, it was 7%.

 

[Brainster]

To add to the above, from the CNN poll ...

Given those findings in the CNN, I don't see much support for McCain to have swung over so many white women over the past few weeks. CNN even has this for all women ...

The numbers just don't work for me, but they are two different polls.

I thought of a way to reconcile this. Let's assume that McCain is getting about 5% support among black women, who make up about 13% of all women. That doesn't seem unreasonably low; Republicans generally get about 10% support from blacks in general and I assume there's stronger than usual support for the Democrat this time around since he's black (partly) as well. And let's go with the ABC News/WaPo and say that McCain's support among white women is 52%. We'll say the remaining 87% are white; that's obviously slightly off because of Asian women, but I'd suspect they vote more like whites than blacks. What does that indicate about McCain's overall level of support?

Black women: 5%*13%=0.65%
White women:52%*87%=45.24%
Totals: 45.89%

This would indicate that McCain has the overall support of right around 46% of all women. Which means (with error margins) that Obama could be at 52%.

 

[Brainster]

Interesting tidbit from the NBC poll ...

Yeah, but they only want to eat with Sarah because they've never had mooseburgers before!

 

[David Wong]

I love these "who would you like to have dinner with" questions. They should totally get more creative with those to explore the psyche of the voters.

"Which candidate would you prefer to be stuck on an elevator with for two hours?"

"Which candidate do you think you could win a wrestling match with?"

"Which candidate would you trust to make a batch of chili for your whole family?"

 

[Brainster]

North Carolina moves strongly in the red column:

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.

Of course, NC is a must-win for McCain and not for Obama. Still it helps McCain to have states like this taken off the board so he can concentrate on the usual battlegrounds.

671 likely voters, Sept 6-8. MOE not given but probably around 4.5%.

 

[chipmunk stew]

North Carolina moves strongly in the red column:



Of course, NC is a must-win for McCain and not for Obama. Still it helps McCain to have states like this taken off the board so he can concentrate on the usual battlegrounds.

671 likely voters, Sept 6-8. MOE not given but probably around 4.5%.

Then again, if this pattern is repeated across the country and his bump is concentrated in states he's likely to take anyway, then it may be obscuring a much smaller electoral college bump, or even a dip.

 

[Brainster]

Meanwhile, Obama seems to have locked up the global vote:

More than 22,000 people were questioned by pollster GlobeScan in countries ranging from Australia to India and across Africa, Europe and South America.

The margin in favour of Senator Obama ranged from 9 per cent in India to 82 per cent in Kenya, while an average of 49 per cent across the 22 countries preferred Senator Obama compared with 12 per cent preferring Senator McCain. Some four in 10 did not take a view.