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Wangler said:
And the really interesting one:

Recession in 2008: 10.0, down 7.5

Is that just because we're getting close to the end of the year?
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It may also come down to the technical definition of a recession, which is fuzzy but often defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Since the average recession lasts around a year and a half, and there are lags in the economic data, you are usually half way through before you can say that there is a recession.
 
gdnp said:
It may also come down to the technical definition of a recession, which is fuzzy but often defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Since the average recession lasts around a year and a half, and there are lags in the economic data, you are usually half way through before you can say that there is a recession.
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You could be right, but the curve of the past few quarters looks thusly:





You note the sharp decline in May...it's amost as if this was tracking the Democratic primary rhetoric wars.

:)
 
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Brainster said:
... And if McCain shows any kind of a lead (as seems likely in the next few days), then we should expect the markets to tighten even further. You're probably right that he won't break 50 by Monday.
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He might by the end of Monday. At this very moment at intrade, it's ...

52 Obama, 48 McCain
 
Pookster said:
He might by the end of Monday. At this very moment at intrade, it's ...

52 Obama, 48 McCain
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Jeepers, that's a big shift from earlier today.

Hey, can one make money on these prediction markets?
 
Pookster said:
He might by the end of Monday. At this very moment at intrade, it's ...

52 Obama, 48 McCain
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Yep. I tend to be confused by these rolling average polls; when I originally made the prediction, I had seen the Obama lead (with leaners) decline from five points to two. It seemed likely that trend would continue for the next couple days or so, but it didn't happen. The next day Obama was back up to three points in the lead. But then it went to even and McCain up one.

It does highlight that the markets are basically following the polls these days, which makes sense as we get closer and closer to the election.

ETA: Here's what I'm getting at with the rolling average problem. We know that Rasmussen surveys 1000 likely voters per day, and averages the three days to get their total. On 9/4/08 the Poll stood at +5 for Obama. Now that could shake out several ways, but let's just use the easy one, by assuming that the last three days had all seen Obama up by 5. What would it take to turn that to +2 for Obama on 9/5? Well, we drop off one of the +5 days, so the latest day would have to be -4 for Obama (or +4 McCain). The next day showed +3 for Obama; what would that take? Well, the prior days were +5, -4, so in order to get +3 for Obama on average, we'd have to have +8 for Obama. The next day showed dead even; that requires another -4. The next day shows -1 for Obama, which means that the latest day had to be -7.

Very confusing. You can try starting with different numbers, but you'll still have that oddball three days in the middle with huge swings back and forth.
 
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Currently, the Iowa Electronic Markets have the following scores:

Vote-Share
Obama 52.9
McCain 48.1

Winner-Take-All
Obama 55.8
McCain 44.9

Looks like I was wrong about McCain not cracking 45 on the WTA-IEM. I was willing to lay down some cash... someone should've taken me up on that action. I still don't see him cracking 50 on the WTA-IEM by next Monday though.

Aside: I would also note that if you compare the history of the IEM in the 2004 race to the current race, you'll see that (at least in the vote-share market) the lead Bush had over Kerry was never very substantial after Labor Day. With the exception of a weird spike for Kerry in early October (anyone know what that was all about?), it looks very much like the current Obama/McCain graph but with the Democrat on top.

It will be interesting to see how much tighter - if at all - the markets get. My guess is that as the news of the RNC recedes and attention turns elsewhere, the markets will stabilize (as will most polls). The real test of what's going to happen to the markets next will be the debates. I think that is where we're going to see the next substantial movement one way or another.

Of course, there's always the possibility that some random event could change the landscape: a terrorist attack, McCain has medical issues, a horrendous jobs report for September, etc. Something of that magnitude could very easily change things fast.
 
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ABC News/Washington Post shows Obama with a 1-point lead (registered voters), and McCain with a 2-point lead (likely voters) but the big takeaway from the poll, mentioned before they even get to the bottom line results, is that white women have switched to McCain (PDF file) in huge numbers.

How huge? White women preferred Obama to McCain by 8 percentage points in August. They now prefer McCain over Obama by 12 percentage points. That's a staggering switch and indeed, I can't help wondering how Obama could still possibly be in the lead among registered voters with that result.

1,133 adults including 961 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% (for the registered voters).
 
Heading into the near future, I predict that McCain/Palin will get a minor bump after her first interview (barring a complete flail on her part).

Obama/Biden gets a bump after first presidential debate, regardless of who "wins" the debate.

Whoever "wins" the VP debate will provide a large bump for their ticket. This debate will easily be most watched VP debate in history.

The final two presidential debates will provide bumps for whichever side "won" the VP debate.

Of course, any of these predictions will be rendered useless if some big scandal breaks, or something equally shocking happens, like a terrorist attack, or something.
 
Brainster said:
ABC News/Washington Post shows Obama with a 1-point lead (registered voters), and McCain with a 2-point lead (likely voters) but the big takeaway from the poll, mentioned before they even get to the bottom line results, is that white women have switched to McCain (PDF file) in huge numbers.

How huge? White women preferred Obama to McCain by 8 percentage points in August. They now prefer McCain over Obama by 12 percentage points. That's a staggering switch and indeed, I can't help wondering how Obama could still possibly be in the lead among registered voters with that result.

1,133 adults including 961 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% (for the registered voters).
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It could be that many of those white women were undecideds or GOP women who were on the fence about McCain. This is weird, because somewhere today or yesterday I thought I saw another poll which indicated that independent & Democratic women (most likely Hillary voters) were basically staying put.

You're right, it's damned confusing. Damn polls :rolleyes:
 
MattusMaximus said:
Why would you say this?
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I guess because I'm not sure how effective McCain is going to be.........and if he does "win" the debate on "substance" he will loose on "style"...I'll be just like that Kennedy-Nixon debate.
 
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