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aerosolben said:
(and Ron Paul? I think you may be confusing the Internet with actual, real voters).
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Exactly. In how many pre-election polls was Paul ahead by 5-14% in the primaries? I'm guessing that those who don't go on the Internet that much had hardly heard of him.
 
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Latest Bush State polls ... with the addition of Montana ...


Bush States in play:

Colorado (9)
October 21 - InsiderAdvantage: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 24 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 24 - Strategic Vision (R): McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 23 - St. Petersburg Times: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 23 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 22 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 21 - PPP (D): Obama by 1 (48%-47%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 17 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 23 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
October 21 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 13 (52%-39%)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Montana (3)
October 23 - Montana State U.: Obama by 4 (44%-40%)

Missouri (11)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 20 - Suffolk: McCain by 1 (45%-44%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Nevada (5)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 15 - Rasmussen: Obama by 13 (55%-42%)
October 15 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 24 - Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
October 24 - Winthrop/ETV: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 22 - WSOC-TV: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 21 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 21 - SurveyUSA: Tied (47%-47%)
October 21 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (51%-48%)
October 20 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 18 - Research 2000: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

North Dakota (3)
October 17 - Research 2000: Tied (45%-45%)
October 16 - North Dakota UTU (D): Obama by 3 (44%-41%)
October 13 - Forum Poll/MSUM: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)

Ohio (20)
October 24 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 24 - Strategic Vision (R): McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
October 23 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 14 (52%-38%)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 12 (53%-41%)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 20 - Suffolk: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 24 - Winthrop/ETV: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 21 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 20 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 20 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

West Virginia (5)
October 22 - CNN/Time: McCain by 9 (53%-44%)
October 21 - Rasmussen: McCain by 9 (52%-43%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 6 (47%-41%)
October 19 - PPP (D): McCain by 8 (50%-42%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
 
Latest national trackin polls ...

October 24 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (53%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 23
October 24 - IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 3.5 (45.8%-42.3%) -- Obama lead +2.4 from Oct 23
October 24 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 23
October 24 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 7 (51%-44%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 23
October 24 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 7 (50%-43%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 23
October 24 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 3 (49%-46%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 23
October 24 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 7 (52%-45%) -- Unchanged from Oct 23
October 24 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 10 (51%-41%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 23
 
Dr Adequate said:
Arizona?

Summary of article: there were seven points between them at the last poll, which was taken before the economic crisis and all the other things that went wrong for McCain lately. Could Arizona become a battleground state? Poll to be released Monday.

Stranger things have happened.
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True enough. After all, Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000 - if he'd won there, he would have won the presidency :rolleyes:
 
Just something to note, the Indiana Supreme Court ruled today 3-2 in favor of allowing three big early-voting stations to stay open in northwestern Indiana. The Indiana GOP had sued to have these stations shut down because of claims of potential "voter fraud", and this decision is a real blow to them.

Ind. Supreme Court won't rush early voting tiff

... The state's highest court, voting 3-2, declined to grant a GOP request to rush its appeal of a special judge's ruling this week that the voting centers in the Lake County cities of Gary, Hammond and East Chicago should remain open and that closing them could jeopardize residents' right to vote.

But that left the matter with the Indiana Court of Appeals, which agreed to expedite the case and set oral arguments for Oct. 30, five days before the general election. ...
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If they don't even argue the case before the appellate court until Oct. 30th, I think the point will be largely moot.

The turnout at these early-voting sites has been huge, and that section of Indiana is the one which nearly gave the state to Obama in the primary vs. Clinton. This decision, like a similar one in Ohio, could very well make the difference and ultimately end up with Obama winning the state.

If Obama takes both Ohio and Indiana, McCain is sunk.

ETA: This news seems to be reflected in a shift in the Yahoo Prediction Market (YPD) for Indiana. Over at the YPD the market has now flipped Indiana from red to blue with a 56% chance it'll go to Obama. Just two days ago he was down by double digits in the prediction market in Indiana. I really think this decision could make the difference there.

With the adjustment of Indiana, the YPD Electoral College market is now showing...

Obama 375
McCain 163

Especially with these recent court decisions in OH and IN, which will ultimately result in more Democratic turnout in these two battlegrounds, I see no way for McCain to dig himself out of this hole.
 
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Being in Illinois I get MAJOR numbers of solicitations to come to Indiana and campaign door-to-door. And were I not glued to this desk keeping my Liberal Radio Network on the air, I would have gone by now.

Sadly, we had some people leave us in recent weeks (drama) and I am the only strong tech guy left in the operation. So I am working 18 hour days...

But the point is that with thousands of canvassers that there must be in IN now, Obama absolutely has to be doing well.
 
Newsweek has Obama up by 12 and the RCP average is 7.9. The "good" news for Mccain is that there was some tightening in the battleground polls. If the early voting is any indication, though, this is looking more and more like Clinton Vs. Dole.

Palin will, no doubt, continue her downward slide in the polls. Today, she claimed the #1 problem for Mccain is Bush's unpopularity. I'm sure the conservative base (a lot of whom still regard Bush favorably), will love hearing Palin bash Bush.

Anyone catch Christopher Hitches today on Hardball? "Senile" was actually used to describe Mccain.
 
MattusMaximus said:
If Obama takes both Ohio and Indiana, McCain is sunk.
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If Obama's tide has risen so high that he can flip a state as red as Indiana, then we are looking at a major electoral victory. I am hoping for 55%-45%, but that may be unrealistic. 6-8 points seems possible. Anything less would be a disappointment. Although I would happily trade a few percent in the popular vote and whatever "mandate" that implies for an extra seat or two in the Senate...a win is a win.
 
Could McCain lose Georgia?

Bob Barr thinks so

McCain's support of the bailout gives Barr (a former congressman from Georgia) an issue to maybe pry a few more votes from McCain and throw Georgia to Obama.

ATLANTA, GA – "Senator John McCain will not win Georgia," predicts Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party nominee for president. "His shrinking poll numbers are an indication that McCain is losing touch with the American public as we get closer to November 4th."

"Sen. McCain never connected with the fiscal conservatives in Georgia," says Barr. "His lack of a principled stand on issues such as reducing the size of government and cutting spending bothers Georgia voters. Sen. McCain can't say with a straight face he will not raise taxes or increase government spending, given his support for such extremely expensive federal government programs like the recent massive bailouts for Wall Street. Clearly, McCain has failed to attract the hearts and support of Georgia voters."

"Sen. Obama will not so much win Georgia, as Sen. McCain will lose the state," Barr adds.

"Georgia voters looking for a candidate who truly believes in limiting the size of government and reducing taxes should vote for Bob Barr and the Libertarian Party," says Barr.

Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr represented the 7th District of Georgia in the U. S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 2003. Barr's name will appear before 95 percent of Americans when the vote on Election Day – more than any other third-party or independent candidate.
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A few national tracking polls ...

October 25 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 8 (52%-44%) -- Obama lead +1 from Oct 24
October 25 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 9 (51%-42%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 24

From Rasmussen ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Today’s results mark the 30th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.

Thirty days ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain
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A few new State polls ...

Colorado (9)
October 25 - Rocky Mtn News/CBS4: Obama by 12 (52%-40%)
October 21 - InsiderAdvantage: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Ohio (20)
October 25 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 24 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 24 - Politico/InAdv: Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 24 - Strategic Vision (R): McCain by 3 (48%-45%)
October 23 - Quinnipiac: Obama by 14 (52%-38%)
October 23 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 12 (53%-41%)
October 22 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (50%-46%)
October 20 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 20 - Suffolk: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
 
Obama just hit 8 in the RCP polling average (damn that AP outlier!). Mccain doesn't seem to be getting anywhere with Plumber Joe. I don't think he'll get much with Biden's comments either, not when 3-digit swings in the stock market are the norm.

New poll in Pennsylvania: Obama +11

CNN is reporting Palin is stumping in Iowa. They've never led in Iowa. Why is Palin there?
 
Malerin said:
CNN is reporting Palin is stumping in Iowa. They've never led in Iowa. Why is Palin there?
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McCain is supposed to heading there himself. He's also visiting New Mexico.

The McCain campaign is in fact run by the mentally retarded.

And that's probably being very unfair to the mentally retarded. You could at least probably teach them that BLUE LINE ABOVE RED LINE + BIG GAP = BAD.
 
Puppycow said:
Could McCain lose Georgia?

Bob Barr thinks so

McCain's support of the bailout gives Barr (a former congressman from Georgia) an issue to maybe pry a few more votes from McCain and throw Georgia to Obama.
Click to expand...

Word has it that Obama's campaign is so fat with cash that they plan to go on the offensive in Georgia with TV ads, if they haven't already.

I suspect any lucky flip of Georgia would be due more to Barr's influence, as the article suggests. I think this time around McCain has much more to worry about with Barr than Obama does with Nader.

Does anyone have a link to polls that factor in Barr/Nader?
 
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