Poll vaccine distribution priorities

[Vixen]

Me.

"He who is first shall be last".

 

[Sherkeu]

As things get more under control I'd consider doing mass vaccination drives geographically, starting with the cities where the prevalence is highest, to try to break community transmission in the problem areas.

Getting those urban areas controlled seems like a good idea. They have the density that promotes spread after all.

But...just before this, I'd make sure to hamper the ability for mutant strains to cross borders. So anyone who comes in contact with people who travel, or are travelers themselves, need to be dealt with before the worst strain that arises gets spread everywhere.

(pilots, cargo workers, airport workers, dock workers, border control, embassies, etc...)

 

[Puppycow]

Here are some numbers:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201.../hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...a/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.jpg

In the US, American Indians, African Americans, and Latino persons all have significantly higher risk of hospitalization and death than white or Asian Americans.

There's also a Lancet analysis that includes UK data:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30374-6/fulltext

Findings

18,728,893 patients from 50 studies were included; 26 were peer-reviewed; 42 were from the United States of America and 8 from the United Kingdom. Individuals from Black and Asian ethnicities had a higher risk of COVID-19 infection compared to White individuals. This was consistent in both the main analysis (pooled adjusted RR for Black: 2.02, 95% CI 1.67–2.44; pooled adjusted RR for Asian: 1.50, 95% CI 1.24–1.83) and sensitivity analyses examining peer-reviewed studies only (pooled adjusted RR for Black: 1.85, 95%CI: 1.46–2.35; pooled adjusted RR for Asian: 1.51, 95% CI 1.22–1.88). Individuals of Asian ethnicity may also be at higher risk of ITU admission (pooled adjusted RR 1.97 95% CI 1.34–2.89) (but no studies had yet been peer-reviewed) and death (pooled adjusted RR/HR 1.22 [0.99–1.50]).
Interpretation

Individuals of Black and Asian ethnicity are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection compared to White individuals; Asians may be at higher risk of ITU admission and death. These findings are of critical public health importance in informing interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality amongst ethnic minority groups.

So, yes, you can treat race in the same way as you would a pre-existing medical condition such as diabetes or obesity. It is a risk factor.

 

[casebro]

Others.

Rather than listing occupations, I'd go by living conditions. "Those living in large /extended families and group homes". Which might account for many of the lower income occupations as well as ethnicities.

 

[Distracted1]

The uninsured should take priority.
They put the heaviest strain on our healthcare system if they get ill.

 

[Thermal]

Worry less about who is first in line and focus on moving that line along as fast as possible.

 

[marting]

I would vaccinate whatever groups reduce Rt the most rapidly. Initially assuming current NPIs then shifting towards no NPIs.

Alternately, vaccinate groups that reduce expected total covid-19 deaths. This might be somewhat different than the above but should be fairly close.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Why is the elderly not an option? Or did you mean who's next after the elderly?

Yes. Sorry that wasn't clear it was included in "very high risk people".

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
But...just before this, I'd make sure to hamper the ability for mutant strains to cross borders. So anyone who comes in contact with people who travel, or are travelers themselves, need to be dealt with before the worst strain that arises gets spread everywhere.

(pilots, cargo workers, airport workers, dock workers, border control, embassies, etc...)

I'm not sure but I think it's too late for this in most states.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Worry less about who is first in line and focus on moving that line along as fast as possible.

WA State did this by lowering the age to 65.

But at some point there isn't enough vaccine and decisions have to be made.

 

[Nessie]

Some death rates per 100,000, by in the UK, mainly from the ONS and mainly split male/female because of the large differences. The only job not split is the police.

Police officer and staff 14.9
Female teacher 21.2
Female nurse 24.5
Female sales/retail 26.9
Female govt admin 27.9
Female factory 33.7
Male teacher 39.2
Male govt admin 72.1
Male nurse 79.1
Male taxi driver 101.4
Male carer 109.9
Male factory 143.2

Hence I voted food processing should go next, but in fact anyone who works in a factory should be next.

 

[Sherkeu]

I'm not sure but I think it's too late for this in most states.

True-- for the current mutations, but there will be more. Ideally, they stay isolated wherever they arise.

We could be in danger of starting this whole vaccination thing all over again.

 

[cullennz]

Doesn't seem like rocket science to me tbh, but then maybe I am talking ****.

Give it to priority wise.

The people most likely to get it, and then give it to others. Ie customs and medical workers and cops.

Then older people (60 up maybe?), with the priority being the most at risk, be that by race or whatever health factors.

Younger ones who have an underlying health factor, again, if some groups are more at risk, them first.

Everyone else.

While at the same time putting a priority on places with the most congested population as it is obviously caught easier if everyone has less space.

Edit: Missed customer facing workers, like shop keepers, taxi drivers, teachers etc from the first group

 

[Rolfe]

There are so many variables that no one answer is incontrovertibly correct. The ultimate goal is to end community transmission, but given how high the prevalence is at present it's clearly right to start with the most vulnerable people.

However at some point the focus has to move away from a strict vulnerability priority ranking. You're setting up a vaccination hub in a town or village. Yes you can invite people by priority but really, it makes no sense to dismantle that hub and move on before everyone is done - otherwise you just have to come back and set up again. They have already said that in Scotland in the more rural areas they will do, say, everyone over 50 while they're in the village, regardless of overall priorities, and presumably they'll only have to come back once to do everyone else.

Ideally every hub should stay open until everyone in their patch has been done and while this may not be entirely possible, repeated moving out then moving back in again needs to be kept to a minimum.

 

[Thermal]

WA State did this by lowering the age to 65.

But at some point there isn't enough vaccine and decisions have to be made.

I'm in favor of hospital workers having first grab, then first come first serve to all else. The sooner the bulk of the population is stuck, the less important the order is. While government screws around tryinh to efficiently work this out (LOL), we could have 3/4ths of the population no longer spreading.

I shouldn't have been stuck so soon (1C). But the vac center actually said to roll us in as family members/cohabilitators for my 1B wife. Just do it, fast and furious.

 

[cullennz]

There are so many variables that no one answer is incontrovertibly correct. The ultimate goal is to end community transmission, but given how high the prevalence is at present it's clearly right to start with the most vulnerable people.

However at some point the focus has to move away from a strict vulnerability priority ranking. You're setting up a vaccination hub in a town or village. Yes you can invite people by priority but really, it makes no sense to dismantle that hub and move on before everyone is done - otherwise you just have to come back and set up again. They have already said that in Scotland in the more rural areas they will do, say, everyone over 50 while they're in the village, regardless of overall priorities, and presumably they'll only have to come back once to do everyone else.

Ideally every hub should stay open until everyone in their patch has been done and while this may not be entirely possible, repeated moving out then moving back in again needs to be kept to a minimum.

Fair call.

The other way of doing it (forgive me if odd), is like we had (maybe still have) with some supermarkets here, but tweaked.

Long story short, The elderly were getting grief trying to shop, so a few supermarkets had an "elderly hour" where only they and disabled people were allowed in to do their thing, then it opens fully.

You could kind of morph it so maybe for 4-5 hours a day the most vulnerable are lined up and then just everyone else.

Whilst you have a travelling team to sort whoever else can't leave their house due to health age reasons.

Probably a dumb idea.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Some death rates per 100,000, by in the UK, mainly from the ONS and mainly split male/female because of the large differences. The only job not split is the police.

Police officer and staff 14.9
Female teacher 21.2
Female nurse 24.5
Female sales/retail 26.9
Female govt admin 27.9
Female factory 33.7
Male teacher 39.2
Male govt admin 72.1
Male nurse 79.1
Male taxi driver 101.4
Male carer 109.9
Male factory 143.2

Hence I voted food processing should go next, but in fact anyone who works in a factory should be next.

Those numbers are shocking. It makes sense to use per capita deaths as a guiding principle. Why are male nurses and male factory workers more prone to dying than females?

Does the UK also have per capita new infections?



A lot of people are emotional about vaccinating teachers mostly because they want the schools open.

Rural community in shock after Georgia health officials raid clinic vaccinating teachers

The clinic decided teachers and other school staff were in the "essential group".

Still, as recently as Dec. 7, educators were considered by the state to be in that "essential group," Poon said, adding that they were able to vaccinate about 177 school workers before the public health department shut them down. ...

I'm not sure how that is consistent with the health department's actions.

Jones [a reporter] said he asked the public health department workers if they had a warrant or court order and that clinic staffers were "crying" and "pleading" with them not to take the vaccines....

The confiscated vaccines were redistributed to five other providers in rural Elbert County on the South Carolina border, along with an additional 2,100 doses, the public health department said....

The other recipients of the confiscated vaccines are the Elbert County Health Department, Elbert Memorial Hospital, MedLink and a local Ingles grocery store.

It's worth noting the schools had already reopened. That's problematic for teachers who don't want to return to classes until they are vaccinated. But it also suggests vaccinating teachers is not a measure that will protect the community. That's a dilemma on its own.

It's also worth noting there is no consistency between states:

Covid-19 vaccinations are already being provided to teachers from kindergarten through high school in 25 states and Washington, D.C., although in some of those states it’s limited to select counties, according to a New York Times survey of vaccination eligibility rules.

In a separate NBC News survey, teachers are eligible for a Covid-19 vaccination in 22 different states.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There are so many variables that no one answer is incontrovertibly correct. The ultimate goal is to end community transmission, but given how high the prevalence is at present it's clearly right to start with the most vulnerable people....

Regardless, there isn't enough vaccine for everyone yet.

The point of the poll is to ask people who they view should be next. Of course "no one answer is incontrovertibly correct." We are down to values here.

As for one key variable, one has to decide to prioritize either protecting the at-risk individuals, or taking measures that would most decrease spread.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm in favor of hospital workers having first grab, then first come first serve to all else. The sooner the bulk of the population is stuck, the less important the order is. While government screws around tryinh to efficiently work this out (LOL), we could have 3/4ths of the population no longer spreading.

I shouldn't have been stuck so soon (1C). But the vac center actually said to roll us in as family members/cohabilitators for my 1B wife. Just do it, fast and furious.

I can't see that a free-for-all is a good idea.

Expanding the group in WA was a good idea, IMO. But some control over the situation is still needed.

 

[shemp]

Yes, some people appear to be having trouble with this mental interference. Maybe I should have said, "besides yourself".

I edited a comment in about that.

Indeed, I apologize for my selfishness. I will amend this to "Me, and those who worship me as a god and make substantial donations to The Church of Shemp^TM."