Poll vaccine distribution priorities

[Sherkeu]

While you do want to vaccinate the people most likely to spread it, vaccinating those most likely to suffer severe disease decreases the burden on hospitals, also a key issue.

That is true if you can predict it with some accuracy.

Made me think of fires here.
Depending on wind, steepness, and the amount of 'fuel' for a fire, the firefighter strategy might not be to fight the immediately vulnerable area that is currently burning in front of them and follow it up the hill. Fires are tricky and so fast...they can turn on you.
It just might be (and usually is!) better to get ahead of it to the top of that hill and fight it from that side so embers don't fly to another area, sometimes miles away, and start a new fire.

Real story. Happens all the time here.

I tend to think fighting the 'next' move of a virus and stopping potential for new variants being seeded elsewhere will could easliy be the thing turn that saves the most lives. Just not the ones easy and obvious ones we see right now.

Difficult decisions.

 

[Nessie]

The combined police Federations of England & Wales have written an open letter as to why they should get the vaccine sooner, and jump the queue, though they deny it is queue jumping.

https://www.polfed.org/news/latest-...-the-government-over-police-officer-vaccines/

"Police officers feel betrayed by the lack of action from the Governments of England and Wales to protect them from exposure to this deadly virus."

So far 53 police officers and staff have died from the virus in the whole of the UK, which works out at 14.9 per 100,000, which is lower than every single occupation being tracked by the ONS.

"Frontline health and social care workers at high risk of acquiring infection, at high individual risk of developing serious disease, or at risk of transmitting infection to multiple vulnerable persons or other staff in a healthcare environment, are considered of higher priority for vaccination than those at lower risk."

Many health and many more social care workers are in their 50s and 60s and have underlying health conditions. The HR department where I work in care told me they have hardly anyone who does not have underlying health issues, as I declared mine before getting my care job. The vast majority of police officers are under 55, even more so front line officers, many of whom are in the 20s and 30s. Not only that, they are healthy with minor, if any underlying health conditions. The police rarely get up close and personal with the over 55s, most arrests are people in their 20s. An arrest is not as intimate as personal care.

"One in three officers have reported being threatened by somebody claiming to have Covid. The level of incidents of people weaponising the virus – by coughing or spitting at them – has increased considerably during the pandemic."

Many care clients have dementia and will cough and touch and not socially distance. The police are acting as if they are the only job where they have to deal with angry people. Try working in a shop, especially late at night!

I get police fall ill and shifts go short, but crime has also dropped and there has not been a collapse in law and order. The police just need to wait, they are not a priority.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

But the police cannot not do their jobs, people they deal with probably have a higher risk of not taking care of their health ergo they might have more untreated COVID, COVID is an issue in prisons so people getting in and out of jails might be at higher risk and most of all, they can't stay behind a plexiglass barrier like store clerks do. Even teachers have more control over their potential exposure.

I don't understand why you don't think police are a priority group?

 

[xjx388]

No more "priority groups." Once we get all the elderly and healthcare workers, open it up to everyone and focus on acquiring and distributing as many doses as possible to as many venues as possible. Would you like a vaccine with that burger and fries?

ETA: It's impossible to do the kind of moral calculus you are trying to do here. There are no good criteria that everyone will agree with.

 

[Nessie]

But the police cannot not do their jobs, people they deal with probably have a higher risk of not taking care of their health ergo they might have more untreated COVID, COVID is an issue in prisons so people getting in and out of jails might be at higher risk and most of all, they can't stay behind a plexiglass barrier like store clerks do. Even teachers have more control over their potential exposure.

I don't understand why you don't think police are a priority group?

It is because

1 - the JCVI priority is to protect the NHS and reduce deaths and ICU admissions. Very few police die or end up seriously ill because they are younger and with fewer problematic health conditions than most of the workforce.

2 - there has not been a collapse in law and order. Crime has dropped, so the police can cope with the increase in sickness and cops having to isolate. It must be odd with no pubs and clubs to heavily police at the weekend.

3 - there is no evidence they are superspreaders. A lot of policing is outdoors, which is lower risk than indoors. Many indoor situations now rarely if ever happen, such as inside pubs, schools and meetings. Most police contacts with the public are routine and can be easily managed with PPE and social distancing.

4 - I know many police have had the virus, it was minor for them and then they get some immunity for the next while. I do not know of any police who have had the virus twice, though that is anecdotal, not the result of a study.

 

[Dr. Keith]

No more "priority groups." Once we get all the elderly and healthcare workers, open it up to everyone and focus on acquiring and distributing as many doses as possible to as many venues as possible. Would you like a vaccine with that burger and fries?

ETA: It's impossible to do the kind of moral calculus you are trying to do here. There are no good criteria that everyone will agree with.

I agree. The priority should be to hit as many arms as possible as quickly as possible. I voted for Teachers, because it pisses me off personally that teachers in our state are required to work*, but really we just need to be jabbing everyone.

Side note: I saw a story that one of the vaccination jurisdictions was giving vaccines to those who brought in elderly patients. So, if you take an older person who is qualified you get the jab even if you aren't qualified.

I don't know if it was to encourage people to bring in elderly patients or if it was to acknowledge that the person brining in the elderly patient likely is often exposed to the elderly. Either way it sounded like a good idea.




*Our Teacher Retirement system is state based and ours in Texas sucks on many levels. OT expansion on this spoiled:

If you leave teaching for more than five years you may drop from one Tier to the next, depending on your Tier. Later Tiers have far worse benefits than the earlier Tiers. If you are a few years from retirement it is hard to get a job in Texas schools because they know you will just retire once you are able. So, if you quit a current job out of fear of covid you may not get another job in the next few years and you could be out of a job long enough that you are dropped a Tier. Or, you have to take job for one or two years, only to then retire and screw over your current employer.

 

[Nessie]

Going by death rates, the male population should be vaccinated next, followed by the female of the species.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Also what happens when a group is offered the vaccine and refuses it in statistically meaningful number?

*Coughs* Nurses *Coughs*

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

No more "priority groups." Once we get all the elderly and healthcare workers, open it up to everyone and focus on acquiring and distributing as many doses as possible to as many venues as possible. Would you like a vaccine with that burger and fries?

ETA: It's impossible to do the kind of moral calculus you are trying to do here. There are no good criteria that everyone will agree with.

Who is "you"?

No one said this was about moral decisions and I don't see anyone going that route in their comments.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Also what happens when a group is offered the vaccine and refuses it in statistically meaningful number?

*Coughs* Nurses *Coughs*

Evidence?

Some might have wanted to wait for the vaccine to have more data. And there have always been a few antivaxxer nurses as there are in any large group.

Beyond that, I've not seen any widespread healthcare worker refusal of vaccine.

 

[Sherkeu]

Evidence?

Some might have wanted to wait for the vaccine to have more data. And there have always been a few antivaxxer nurses as there are in any large group.

Beyond that, I've not seen any widespread healthcare worker refusal of vaccine.

There was this article saying that LA firefighters aren't getting vaccines and not showing up during 'vaccine' days.

But the article kept switching its description between total dept personnel and 'firefighter' but then also mentioning EMTs and paramedics.
40% remain unvaccinated!!! it says...but then 25% have had a positive test for Covid. No mention of people in HR and accounting, etc.. who sit in an office all day (or more likely at home now)

So the whole thing was garbage because I had no clue what the numbers meant.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There was this article saying that LA firefighters aren't getting vaccines and not showing up during 'vaccine' days.

But the article kept switching its description between total dept personnel and 'firefighter' but then also mentioning EMTs and paramedics.
40% remain unvaccinated!!! it says...but then 25% have had a positive test for Covid. No mention of people in HR and accounting, etc.. who sit in an office all day (or more likely at home now)

So the whole thing was garbage because I had no clue what the numbers meant.

News media is always looking to gin up a story.

From my experience giving flu vaccine to multiple fire departments for the last 30 years, at first I had to convince a lot of them the vaccine was safe, didn't make people sick, all that stuff. They used to make fun of me with one guy saying flu shots make you ill because they knew it would trigger my spiel. I also taught infectious disease classes to them where I covered the dangers of flu.

After a few years, most of them started getting flu shots every year. But if one guy from one station/one shift declined, that would often mean that whole crew (3-4 guys) refused. They are easily led.

Overall most are good with vaccinations here in this area. They did express some concern over the mRNA vaccines as did I. But I think they got over that fairly quickly as millions of doses were safely given.

No one has to convince them COVID is seriously dangerous. They see it first hand.

 

[Francesca R]

No one said this was about moral decisions and I don't see anyone going that route in their comments.

It’s pretty much entirely what it is about. And what your poll is implicitly about.

 

[Francesca R]

Evidence?

Some might have wanted to wait for the vaccine to have more data. And there have always been a few antivaxxer nurses as there are in any large group.

Beyond that, I've not seen any widespread healthcare worker refusal of vaccine.

Care home staff across the UK are for some reason or other more reluctant to get vaccinated than average. Some say “cultural reasons” but it is a definite difference. Fortunately the percentage uptake is still high in this group compared to many other countries.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Care home staff across the UK are for some reason or other more reluctant to get vaccinated than average. Some say “cultural reasons” but it is a definite difference. Fortunately the percentage uptake is still high in this group compared to many other countries.

Still no evidence. I don't doubt there are news stories making such claims. Ginning up facts is how they sell the news.


As for moral, by the definition you appear to be using, all decisions are morally based.

The arguments have been around lowering hospital admissions or decreasing spread.

Maybe the decision to prioritize teachers and I see no one has voted for prisoners are influenced by moral reasoning. But some people think teachers are key to getting people back to work, not a morality based opinion.

OK, maybe wanting equity for the poor and other groups not getting an even deal is a moral issue.

 

[Francesca R]

Still no evidence

Eh, I didn't anticipate that you'd just refuse to believe it. Since you have also peremptorily dismissed news on this as fake, it would appear that you are on some kind of denial mission that probably doesn't interest me.

As for moral, by the definition you appear to be using, all decisions are morally based.

Not really. But forming the objective to be served by subsequent prioritisation, is.

The arguments have been around lowering hospital admissions or decreasing spread.

I think you left arguments up to responders. Most of them follow moral-ethical assumptions as far as I can tell.

Maybe the decision to prioritize teachers and I see no one has voted for prisoners are influenced by moral reasoning. But some people think teachers are key to getting people back to work, not a morality based opinion.

As I noted above somewhere if the objective was economic acceleration then the priority would seem to be working age people and not elderly--the reverse of the almost universal approach worldwide (but being followed by Indonesia--though even in Indonesia it seems they are claiming that this protects the elderly, not that the consensus agrees with them)

OK, maybe wanting equity for the poor and other groups not getting an even deal is a moral issue.

I think all the various objectives: economy, protection of those most at risk, relieve stress on health service . . . . are moral issues. How else would anyone settle on an objective as being their favoured one?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Eh, I didn't anticipate that you'd just refuse to believe it. Since you have also peremptorily dismissed news on this as fake, it would appear that you are on some kind of denial mission that probably doesn't interest me. ...

I asked for evidence that I could look at in context and see whether you are looking at a single care home, a single news report or some actual assessment of the problem that was systematically collected.

So your being miffed that I don't believe you is misplaced.

From your first link:

Data obtained by the Press Association shows that between 5% and 21% of care home staff offered the vaccine had declined it with young workers more resistant to declining the jab.

5 to 21 is a big spread and the source is the "Press"

It goes on to say:

The NCA said around 6-8% of staff remained nervous or resistant about vaccination due to health and cultural factors, down from 18-20% at the beginning of the programme. ...

That's true for a lot of health care workers and I said so. There was reluctance because mRNA was a new process. It's normal caution.

The second link isn't a study, it's a discussion of making the vaccination mandatory.

From the third link:

Barking and Dagenham, which has some of the highest virus rates in the country, said it had also now vaccinated more than 70 per cent of residents aged 80 and over who are living independently.

But younger frontline workers in the first priority category for jabs had not come forward at the same rate, Barking’s cabinet member for health Maureen Worby said.

So not 70%, but no figure is given.

It also covers a period before Jan 25th. According to Wiki vaccinations began on 8 December in the UK so that means the period covers 6-7 weeks.

This is all consistent with what I said.

Joe said nurses were declining the vaccine in "significant numbers." This ^ is what I doubted and still do. I replied: "Some might have wanted to wait for the vaccine to have more data. And there have always been a few antivaxxer nurses as there are in any large group."

Sherkeu said firefighters were reluctant and I agreed then described my experience having to educate them over many years about flu vaccine.

The you joined the conversation saying in response to my asking for evidence:

Care home staff across the UK are for some reason or other more reluctant to get vaccinated than average. Some say “cultural reasons” but it is a definite difference. Fortunately the percentage uptake is still high in this group compared to many other countries.

So I asked again for evidence of that.

Your being miffed was not called for. Evidence is what this whole forum is about.

 

[Sherkeu]

SG- I think this does follow past compliance with flu vaccines.

Almost all the elderly are fine getting a flu vaccine yearly, but the younger you get, even health workers, might not get it, because their risk/reward decisions are different, for whatever reasons they have for themselves.

My father's senior community have been given both doses now of the Pfizer vaccine at a compliance of over 99%. Over 600 people. I'm sure they are just about done with not being able to have their favorite buffet, eating from plastic containers delivered to them, no social activities, and guests and non-essential deliveries banned from entry at the gate- for nearly a year now! (of course all in addition to the 'not dying' part)

I also think part of that is that they did it on site, all at once, as a community where they all lived in a small area. If people are given a 'vaccine day', but need drive somewhere miles away and wait in a line, you'll likely get many no-shows.

 

[xjx388]

Whenever you talk about prioritizing one group or another, you are inherently talking about moral/ethical issues.

I have no problem prioritizing the most vulnerable, which is the elderly, healthcare workers and people with scientifically defined risk factors for severe disease and death. That’s how you reduce death and disability. It’s a scientific argument, not a moral/ethical one.

Beyond that, it doesn’t matter because the younger, non-vulnerable population simply doesn’t suffer as much death and disability and what becomes important is to get the doses in as many arms as possible as fast as possible. Because that’s how you achieve herd immunity and stop the spread.

Police vs teachers vs grocery store workers...Those are moral arguments not scientific ones.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

SG- I think this does follow past compliance with flu vaccines.

Almost all the elderly are fine getting a flu vaccine yearly, but the younger you get, even health workers, might not get it, because their risk/reward decisions are different, for whatever reasons they have for themselves.

My father's senior community have been given both doses now of the Pfizer vaccine at a compliance of over 99%. Over 600 people. I'm sure they are just about done with not being able to have their favorite buffet, eating from plastic containers delivered to them, no social activities, and guests and non-essential deliveries banned from entry at the gate- for nearly a year now! (of course all in addition to the 'not dying' part)

I also think part of that is that they did it on site, all at once, as a community where they all lived in a small area. If people are given a 'vaccine day', but need drive somewhere miles away and wait in a line, you'll likely get many no-shows.

The flu vaccine part of my business is successful because more healthcare worker employees will get a flu shot if the employer provides it at work. They can all go get one covered by insurance but fewer employees get the vaccine when they have to take that extra initiative.

My issue with the news media claiming healthcare workers aren't getting vaccinated is twofold. One just because they've taken a couple weeks to decide to get the vaccine (hell it took me years to get some police and fire to get routine flu shots) it doesn't mean most of them are reluctant to get vaccinated.

And two, when the news media plays this distorted view up because it sells the news, it makes other healthcare workers think there is something wrong with the vaccine. It's like those fire station crews where one guy doesn't get the flu shot so no one at the same station and shift get it.

Let Mikey try it. Remember that commercial? If the news reported honestly instead of with the goal of selling their commodity, more healthcare workers would get vaccinated.