My basic point here is that, while Spektator may have had the experience he describes, it's such an unlikely one that it's not a good general explanation for other alleged paranormal experiences.
Perdicting Earthquakes
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Spektator
Is that right?
Thank you, Reno. That was really my only point in bringing it up. For a while there I thought I had lost my ability to communicate.
And FWIW, I still think about my old friend, though he's been gone thirty years. Re-reading that journal entry made me feel the loss again and cost me one sleepless night.
And FWIW, I still think about my old friend, though he's been gone thirty years. Re-reading that journal entry made me feel the loss again and cost me one sleepless night.
trvlr2
Muse
Anyone else notice that Rodney is disturbing the sod when he drags those goalposts around?
First , there was NO corroborating dream story-then, one was documented. Now, that is not sufficient!
AWWW, Rodney! At least replace the divots.
First , there was NO corroborating dream story-then, one was documented. Now, that is not sufficient!
AWWW, Rodney! At least replace the divots.
Spektator
Is that right?
I also found in a psychology text an account of experiments with dream recall that found that dreams, remembered at intervals over a period of time, tended to be recounted differently over the span of time, with the dreamer gradually filling in details not originally mentioned (embroidering and making the dream more elaborate) and turning images into narratives. One of the most common errors the dreamers make in talking about their dreams is to recall them taking place at an earlier or later date than they actually did.
But of course I doubt that Rodney would accept that, since there's no specific statement that the dreams in the experiment dealt with seeing the spirits of the dead, so they can't be parallel, right?
And I imagine the reason that no one here has had a dream (and made a mistake) like mine is that most of us have not dreamed of a dead friend or loved one visiting us on the night of the death, though I'll bet many of us have dreamed about someone who is no longer among the living. My father died five years ago, and I still occasionally see him in dreams. But I don't think he's coming back from beyond to visit me just because I dream about him.
Point 1): It's not clear how well the story has been documented.
Point 2): The story is different than Spektator's because his concerned a close friend.
Spektator
Is that right?
So go and find the books and read the documentation! That's what I did.
And point 2 is just splitting hairs. Most reasonable people would see a parallel between my experience and that of Judge Hornby.
trvlr2
Muse
Just replace the divots. No harm done.
There's a good boy, now run along.
There's a good boy, now run along.
Well, you have my respect, sir!
"New to this whole thing, and still learning": Does this mean that you will stick to the original idea and maintain that you - or anybody else - can make predictions? How many failed predictions do you think woul dbe needed to make you change your mind, if at all possible.
Parapsychologists have had more than a hundred years of scientific investigation to come up with nothing, so I cannot blame you for being a particularly stubborn believer if you will not change your mind.
But we have already pointed to the predictions of earthquakes to be something that is more likely to "hit" than to "miss", and we have pointed out that confirmation bias is a strong force than can explain most predictions. Is this something you would consider?
Posting your predictions here will of course eliminate confirmation bias, because we are not likely to forget. Which brings us back to the original question, How many failed predictions would you need to to change your mind?
Don't worry, Rodney is a regular at this sort of thing and has severe difficulties with mobile goalposts and listening to reason. However, if all we're looking for is evidence that perception and memory can be rather unreliable there are a couple of famous experiments that demonstrate that quite nicely.
http://www.apa.org/monitor/apr01/blindness.html
Unfortunately I can't seem to find a link to the other one at the moment. In essence, a fake trial took place in a courtroom with the experiment subjects as the audience. At some point, a person burst in, ran up to the front and shot someone, then ran away. When statements were taken afterwards, no-one could even agree whether the person was male or female, or black or white, let alone what clothes they were wearing or a general description of their appearance.
It seems incredible, but it is entirely possible to watch someone run up and shoot someone next to you, and yet half an hour later you are unlikely to remember reliably their gender or colour, the most obvious of their traits. You can even fail to notice a gorilla standing in the middle of a screen for 10 seconds while you are concentrating on it. Given this, misremembering the exact timing and content of a dream really doesn't seem that surprising.
Spektator
Is that right?
To reiterate, I'm not disputing the notion that our memories can play tricks on us, including with regard to dreams. I am, however, strongly disputing the notion that it's even somewhat common for a traumatic event to precede a dream by several days (or even weeks or months) and yet the dreamer becomes convinced that the dream actually preceded that event.
Miss Anthrope
Illuminator
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Even though memory is memory is memory, and a similar case was noted for you.
So you think that even though it is quite possible to forget a dancing gorilla after a few seconds it is not possible to forget the exact day of a dream when recalling it several years later. As always, your wilful ignorance in the face of reality provides much amusement.
Spektator
Is that right?
A week ago I predicted an earthquake in California for today, tomorrow, or Thursday of magnitude 3.0 or greater.
I wish to point out that the NEIC at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php has recorded an earthquake today in central California of magnitude 3.1.
And there was absolutely nothing psychic about my prediction, and it proves absolutely nothing. I was just predicting an earthquake in an earthquake-prone area, and by giving myself a three-day spread, I knew I had a pretty darn good chance of being right. However, were I inclined to think I might have the ability to foresee earthquakes, such an incident could easily spark confirmation bias in me and reinforce my belief.
I wish to point out that the NEIC at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php has recorded an earthquake today in central California of magnitude 3.1.
And there was absolutely nothing psychic about my prediction, and it proves absolutely nothing. I was just predicting an earthquake in an earthquake-prone area, and by giving myself a three-day spread, I knew I had a pretty darn good chance of being right. However, were I inclined to think I might have the ability to foresee earthquakes, such an incident could easily spark confirmation bias in me and reinforce my belief.
Cuddles, try thinking instead of making sarcastic comments. Your friend dies in a tragic accident. You commisserate with his/her relatives and other friends and attend the funeral with them. Then, and only then, do you have a dream about your departed friend visiting you. Wouldn't that dream be clearly fixed in your mind as occurring after his death? I've had many after-the-fact dreams about departed friends and relatives and never once had the slightest doubt about their occurring after-the-fact.
Miss Anthrope
Illuminator
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Whether or not you have any doubt bears nothing on the fact that Spektator's experience fits the scientific norm.
Instead of asking others to do some thinking, perhaps you should do some of your own.
trvlr2
Muse
But, Miss A-Rodney has done some thinking. He just can't quite remember it correctly!
And the evidence that Spektator's experience fits the scientific norm is . . .