Perdicting Earthquakes

[Spektator]

No problem, Miss Anthrope. I hope Drew realizes that in none of this did I intend to mock him or his beliefs, but I am interested to watch for the Midwest bomb event he predicted. If--God forbid--it happens or if it does not happen, I still want to learn what he has to say about the experience. And I promise not to make fun of him should the latter case prove true.

 

[Miss Anthrope]

No problem, Miss Anthrope. I hope Drew realizes that in none of this did I intend to mock him or his beliefs, but I am interested to watch for the Midwest bomb event he predicted. If--God forbid--it happens or if it does not happen, I still want to learn what he has to say about the experience. And I promise not to make fun of him should the latter case prove true.

The same for me. In Drew's case he seems to be sincere, not the arrogant challenger type that we also see.

As said earlier in this thread, I was quite a woo and often felt things similar to what he described. But, I started writing down every feeling and telling people every time I had a "prediction", and found that I had a classic case of "confirmation bias" and was wrong more than vaguely correct. The fact that I missed every major disaster that would impact me the most (The Northridge quake and every major aftershock, the death of my own brother and other life and death situations) told me a lot. And once I learned about cold reading, I experimented with readings I gave and found out I was indeed doing cold readings. I was really good, but when people answered dishonestly (I asked some to decide if they would be truthful or not, not knowing who would be), it was plain as day.

I'm pushing on the memory issue only because it is a substantiated phenomena, and it serves the greater purpose of educating those who may experience it.

 

[Spektator]

We have other books in our library that mention the Hornby case. One of them, C.E.M. Hansel's E.S.P.: A Scientific Evaluation quotes from original documents and adds some detail.

Sir Edmund's first wife died in 1873; however, he remarried in April, 1875. It was his second wife that he mistakenly recalled as being in his house on the night of January 19, 1875, when he thought he had his vision. Oddly, Lady Hornby remembered the dream as occurring on the night of the reporter's death, too, though she did not recall the date. She had picked up her false memory from hearing her husband tell about the experience! And in this version, Sir Edmund had first said that the dead man's family brought him a notebook found clutched in the dead man's hand, in which the summary of the case was written--proof that the dead man's spirit had visited him.

However, that never happened. The family were quite clear that the reporter spent a quiet night before his death on the morning of January 20 and had no notebook on him. And the case the Judge remembered telling the reporter about had not yet taken place.

I understand that in his autobiography--which unfortunately we do not have, but which I may be able to get through interlibrary loan--Hornby spends some time on this, explaining how he discovered his memories were false and speculating on the nature of memory.

And, Miss Anthrope, like you I used to be much more inclined to believe in the paranormal. I even personally went on a (fruitless) ghost hunt once. But that's not a story for this thread.

 

[steenkh]

I am sure a bit of data mining can come up with a hit. Let us see ...

... here: Siberia mine blast deaths hit 78:

The blast happened at 1030 Moscow time (0730 GMT) at the Ulyanovskaya mine in Kemerovo region.

So the perdiction was off by a continent, but as the man said, it was in the middle of the continent. And it was an unplanned explosion. Even more astonishing, the explosion was at 6:30 (in a tiny part of Greenland), as perdicted!

 

[NoZed Avenger]

Guys, can we drop the "perdicted" business?

It's a typo. Everyone makes them, and the original poster seems like he's a decent sort, even if we/you don't agree with everything he's saying. He's also been pretty reasonable in giving his predictions and listening to feedback, so I would request that we save the snark for those posters who have earned it.


Like me.

 

[Dan O.]

I even personally went on a (fruitless) ghost hunt once. But that's not a story for this thread.

Ghost hunts are always better when there is fruit involved


My earliest recollection of a premonitory dream was one where I was startled awake by what sounded like a gunshot going off. What made it premonitory was when I recalled the dream that I just had it was a long sequence involving guns and one being drawn and fired just at the same time as the real sound.

Rather than deriving that I somehow subconsciously predicted that the sound was going to occur, I had determined that sequence and details of dream memories could be created after one is awakened.

 

[chillzero]

Ghost hunts are always better when there is fruit involved


My earliest recollection of a premonitory dream was one where I was startled awake by what sounded like a gunshot going off. What made it premonitory was when I recalled the dream that I just had it was a long sequence involving guns and one being drawn and fired just at the same time as the real sound.

Rather than deriving that I somehow subconsciously predicted that the sound was going to occur, I had determined that sequence and details of dream memories could be created after one is awakened.

I often waken with sounds, smells and even tastes from dreams 'following' me. I don't know anything about it, but assume there is a scientific explanation for it.

 

[Reno]

I am sure a bit of data mining can come up with a hit. Let us see ...

... here: Siberia mine blast deaths hit 78:

So the perdiction was off by a continent, but as the man said, it was in the middle of the continent. And it was an unplanned explosion. Even more astonishing, the explosion was at 6:30 (in a tiny part of Greenland), as perdicted!

This wasn't an attack though. So I'm afraid that bit of data mining was not even close. Try again though, I'd like to get all of the 'possible hits' out of the way before Drew posts here after his dates are past. (If he ever returns to post)

 

[Miss Anthrope]

I often waken with sounds, smells and even tastes from dreams 'following' me. I don't know anything about it, but assume there is a scientific explanation for it.

I often wake up thinking I need to get that pile of money from my bedside table, takes a few minutes for the disappointing reality to sink in

 

[Cuddles]

I wish to correct an error in my posting about the chapter from the Encyclopedia of Ghosts book (I was up very late last night, and I read the faxed pages too rapidly, I guess). The name of the judge was not Sir Edward Hornby, but Sir Edmund Hornby. I admit the mistake and apologize for it!

I dreamed you'd say that.

Incidently, is it just me or is predicting a deliberate attack on US soil not the best idea? I mean, here we have someone posting on the interweb that someone is going to attack thbe US, and if it does then happen, who will be the first suspect? If you're going to predict things, at least make sure it's not things you're going to be arrested for.

 

[Spektator]

Well, we should know in 24 hours whether Drew's prediction of a bomb attack in a midwestern state is a hit or not. I hope he returns to the thread in any case.

 

[Rodney]

I wish to correct an error in my posting about the chapter from the Encyclopedia of Ghosts book (I was up very late last night, and I read the faxed pages too rapidly, I guess). The name of the judge was not Sir Edward Hornby, but Sir Edmund Hornby. I admit the mistake and apologize for it!

Edited to add: I found a short account of the judge's misremembered apparition online at http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-154238676.html. It agrees with the article in the Cohen book.

Thanks for the link, but -- aside from the very sketchy details of this story -- it doesn't appear comparable to yours because the judge didn't seem to know the reporter who died. Therefore, I can possibly understand how he could have confused this person's death with another person's death. In your case, however, you knew the victim, and so I don't see that as a possibility.

 

[Miss Anthrope]

For Rodney: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_ignorance

 

[Reno]

Thanks for the link, but -- aside from the very sketchy details of this story -- it doesn't appear comparable to yours because the judge didn't seem to know the reporter who died. Therefore, I can possibly understand how he could have confused this person's death with another person's death. In your case, however, you knew the victim, and so I don't see that as a possibility.

First, I'm not calling Spektator a liar, I'm just trying to figure out how the sequence of events he describes could have happened.

So if you're not calling Spektator a liar, what's your explanation for his post? Either he misremembers the sequence of events around his dream, or he misremembers misremembering the sequence of events around his dream. If it's neither of those, he must be lying. So, which do you think it is?

 

[Drew599]

Looks like I was wrong. I just figured that this would be a good place to post something like this just incase I was right. Not much else to really say. I always try and learn from things like this, like what to ignore and what to pay attention to.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Well, kudos for returning, Drew.

Maybe it seemed like we were putting a lot of pressure on you... Firstly to come up with some sort of prediction, and then to fine-tune it. This is just our nature - having viewed so many such claims over the years and even having questioned each other unto exhaustion.

If you have a feeling or a hunch in the future, just bump the thread. We'll probably be just as disrespectful (but in a good-natured way), and ask the same old questions, again... but how else are you to explore these things in a questioning/scientific environment?

<<Do check out the link I posted above... the number of quakes and volcanoes in a single week is rather astonishing. Sometimes it seems like you'd have a harder time predicting a date when there ISN'T an eruption or quake.>>

 

[Reno]

Well done Drew. Not many people who are wrong would return here and openly admit it. You have earned my admiration today.

If you are still a bit baffled about predictions you have made in the past that you think have come true, please post the details here and I (and I expect the other good people here) will try to help you understand some of the possible explanations of what happened.

If you don't want to post anything else about past, present or future predictions, then please stick around the board anyway. There is a lot of interesting info for someone who is willing to learn more

 

[Spektator]

Congratulations, Drew. I admire your honesty and your willingness to tell us you feel you were wrong. "Confirmation bias" means that when people get a feeling that something bad is about to happen and it doesn't, they tend to dismiss and forget about the premonition; while if people get a feeling that something bad is about to happen and something bad does, they remember the premonition very vividly. By sheer coincidence, some premonitions will happen before some notable event, so (since the tendency is to forget all the duds) the human reaction is to believe "Wow! I predicted that!" I am not saying this is necessarily what happened to you, but it is a possibility.

Oh, Rodney--you are wrong. The reporter, Hugh Lang Nivens,

"Was a man well-known and esteemed by me," Judge Hornby reported.

And, for the record, neither of us confused the death of the deceased person with anyone else's death. Both of us thought we had dreamed of the dead person's appearing to us on the night of the death, but in fact we both dreamed about the death after the event--my dream was four days after my friend's death, and Judge Hornby's was three months after the reporter's death. And both the Judge and I then displaced the dream backward in time, and in both cases we told others about the dream as our evidence that spirit apparitions could happen.

I will leave it to everyone else to consider whether what I did actually paralleled what Judge Hornby did.

 

[Drew599]

I try to be as open and honest with people as I think I should be. So my admitting that I was wrong about these dates isn't that big of a deal for me. Now if something happens on April 19th then I will be really confused because nothing happened on the date that was supposedly going to lead into the 19th. But I'm new to this whole thing and still learning. If I do come up with anything again that I have a strong feeling about I might post it here.

 

[Miss Anthrope]

Bravo to your backbone, Drew!