Our next unelected PM?

[a_unique_person]

Good to see that Jeremy Hunt is proposing that the Conservatives continue to be the party of fiscal responsibility



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48772596

At least Boris is sticking to the script...(from the same BBC article)

Boris is the epitome of the useful idiot.

 

[Matthew Best]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestic_violence_in_the_United_Kingdom#Prevalence


A bit over half as likely. Still, statistics don't tell you much about a particular incident. I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that he was the aggressor here, given that she was the one who was yelling.

Isn't one of the things she yelled "Get off me"? That would tend to make me think he was the aggressor rather than her, but I wasn't there.

However, tonight I will be attending a function at which Nigel Farage will also be present, no doubt clutching a pint of beer. My wife was insistent that I should punch him or throw a milkshake over him - I said if I did see him, which is unlikely, I would probably just ignore him, but she then said that that was how we got in this nightmare in the first place.

 

[The Don]

Which bears no relationship to what would happen in the case of a GE.
The Brexit party will sap seats from the Tories far more than Labour, not to take the seats but to lose them.

If Farage stands his party up for an election, as he says he will, then it's Johnson and the Tories that will suffer.

In addition, Farage will need a manifesto. And that's ripe for tearing apart.

IMO people who support the Brexit Party are not big on policy on any subject other than Brexit. The absence of any other policies, or having unacceptable or unworkable policies in other areas will only have an effect at the margin of Brexit Party support.

I think it all comes down to the Brexit policy on which the Conservative Party fights the next election. If the next general election is before 31 October and the Conservative Party is committed to a no-deal Brexit then I think the Brexit Party is a busted flush. If the next general election is after a 31 October no-deal Brexit then again, the Brexit Party doesn't really have a raison d'etre (unless the no deal results in frantic backpedalling from the government - something I don't envisage).

If Brexit is further delayed then perhaps the Brexit Party will still be electorally relevant. I'm not sure about Brexit with a deal. My gut says that leaving with Theresa May's deal will strike a blow against the Brexit Party but that there may still be considerable residual support.

As far as a general election goes, I think it's difficult to call. A quick election while Boris is still in a honeymoon period, promising no-deal and the Conservative Party having enjoyed wall-to-wall coverage for weeks against a pro-Brexit Labour Party with Jeremy Corbyn in charge would be a different matter than one against a Labour Party with a well defined Remain message and a charismatic (or at least effective) leader.

 

[McHrozni]

If the next general election is before 31 October

Is this even possible? Parliament reconvenes September 5th. If it confirms BJ as PM on that day, he calls an early election and secures the needed votes, that's a whooping 8 weeks for all the necessary formalities about the election.

A typical election campaign is half that and calling an early election on the day you're confirmed as PM sounds like a risky strategy to me. Even for BJ. It might be a way to secure another Brexit extension with the EU for a couple of months, but BJ already called Brexit day to be October 31st, come hell or high water.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Is this even possible? Parliament reconvenes September 5th. If it confirms BJ as PM on that day, he calls an early election and secures the needed votes, that's a whooping 8 weeks for all the necessary formalities about the election.

A typical election campaign is half that and calling an early election on the day you're confirmed as PM sounds like a risky strategy to me. Even for BJ. It might be a way to secure another Brexit extension with the EU for a couple of months, but BJ already called Brexit day to be October 31st, come hell or high water.

McHrozni

31 October is very unlikely, but still possible AFAIK.

IMO Boris stands to gain the most from a hurried election campaign, he already has good brand recognition, the Conservatives have had plenty of media coverage, Labour will be all over the place and it gives Parliament little or no time to stop a no-deal Brexit. It also gives him the minimum amount of time for him to do or say something fatal to the Tories' electoral prospects.

 

[Tolls]

IMO people who support the Brexit Party are not big on policy on any subject other than Brexit. The absence of any other policies, or having unacceptable or unworkable policies in other areas will only have an effect at the margin of Brexit Party support.

That's probably a sizeable chunk of their support, but I don't expect that lot to ever be convinced otherwise.
There is a "sane" minority that a nonsense manifesto will send them back to their party. It's a GE, so more than just Brexit has an influence.

I think it all comes down to the Brexit policy on which the Conservative Party fights the next election. If the next general election is before 31 October and the Conservative Party is committed to a no-deal Brexit then I think the Brexit Party is a busted flush. If the next general election is after a 31 October no-deal Brexit then again, the Brexit Party doesn't really have a raison d'etre (unless the no deal results in frantic backpedalling from the government - something I don't envisage).

There will be an election before a No Deal exit.
Most likely the exit will be postponed to allow for the election, something I expect the EU will allow in the hopes that it will put this crapfest behind us.

Neither of the current candidates for PM has the courage of their convictions to do otherwise.

On that basis, the Faragists will be standing, but the only result of that is a knackering of the Tory support.

 

[The Don]

There will be an election before a No Deal exit.
Most likely the exit will be postponed to allow for the election, something I expect the EU will allow in the hopes that it will put this crapfest behind us.

Neither of the current candidates for PM has the courage of their convictions to do otherwise.

On that basis, the Faragists will be standing, but the only result of that is a knackering of the Tory support.

No deal is still the default and it's becoming more urgent and important for the Conservatives to deliver a no-deal to keep their membership happy.

Parliament would need to take decisive action to stop it - I'm not sure that there are enough Tory "rebels" to counteract the Labour Brexiteers.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I think there's no doubt that all the other parties are now taking Farage and his party very seriously indeed (at least, they dammed well better had be taking it seriously).

It was Cameron taking Farage seriously that got us in to this mess.

 

[SusanB-M1]

Vixen

Referring to your question re Jeremy Hunt up thread, the answer is, no, I do not agree with much of what he says, but I disagree with less of what he says than what Boris says ... ... well, it's something like that!

That is flippant, but I'm serious about voting for whatever is the alternative choice to Boris.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Boris is his character's name, it's meant to be a friendly unpretentious name to show he ain't a posh toff. I've consciously been trying to refer to him by his last name.

I just call him The Pinãta of Lies

 

[P.J. Denyer]

They achieved 31.6% in the EU election, on a turnout of 36%.

They will not achieve anywhere near that in a general, where turnout tends to be 65-70%.

Agreed, Brexit Party supporters are highly energised and hopefully it won't pick up more casual voters.

As The Don says, a by election in one of the more staunchly Leave constituencies in the country, and they failed to win at a point where Brexit fever is rather high.

Yep

The Brexit party will suck votes from the Tories far more than they will from Labour.

This does not mean those Tory seats go Brexit, it means those Tory seats go Labour or Lib Dem.

Labour will not form a deal with Farage.

Which bears no relationship to what would happen in the case of a GE.
The Brexit party will sap seats from the Tories far more than Labour, not to take the seats but to lose them.

If Farage stands his party up for an election, as he says he will, then it's Johnson and the Tories that will suffer.

In addition, Farage will need a manifesto. And that's ripe for tearing apart.

Pre-Election Farage would be in a strong position to deal in exchange for not standing in likely Tory win seats for exactly this reason. In addition we shouldn't write off the opposition's ability to shoot themselves in the foot, be it by Labour fence sitting or splitting the pro-Remain vote three ways (shades of the 80's).

And despite all the reasons Farage shouldn't win any seats I think we discount his ability to make turkeys vote for Christmas at our own risk.

 

[Tolls]

No deal is still the default and it's becoming more urgent and important for the Conservatives to deliver a no-deal to keep their membership happy.

Parliament would need to take decisive action to stop it - I'm not sure that there are enough Tory "rebels" to counteract the Labour Brexiteers.

Can't remember if I've brough this bit up here before or not.
Anyway, March was bad enough, with lots of companies buying up warehouse capacity to stock up in case of a No Deal throughly disrupting their networks.

All that capacity has gone now, and any attempt to do the same thing for an October departure will fail as all that capacity is booked up well in advance as it is the run up to Christmas.

Do you seriously think a majority of MPs will want to be responsible for screwing up everyone's Christmas?

When the shops empty in November, and Amazon is marking everything as "currently not available" I doubt people will be so forgiving.

No, if it comes to it they'll force an election rather than have to face one after the fall out hits.

 

[Tolls]

Pre-Election Farage would be in a strong position to deal in exchange for not standing in likely Tory win seats for exactly this reason. In addition we shouldn't write off the opposition's ability to shoot themselves in the foot, be it by Labour fence sitting or splitting the pro-Remain vote three ways (shades of the 80's).

And despite all the reasons Farage shouldn't win any seats I think we discount his ability to make turkeys vote for Christmas at our own risk.

But that leaves the Faragists standing in non-Tory seats (splitting the Tory vote). There is a chunk of Labour voters who are pro-Leave, but they are dwarfed by the Tory voters. Don't make Corbyn's mistake of assuming a pro-Leave constituency means that most Labour voters there are pro-Leave.

In the current climate I do think Farage will win seats. I just don't think it'll be more than a score, and will be almost entirely from the Tories. I think the main result of a Brexit Party standing is an increase in Lib Dem and Labour seats, just by the nature of FPTP.

 

[ponderingturtle]

How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?

He is extremely unlikely to get any better deal from the EU (or even any different deal at all). And all previous votes in the HoC say he will not be able to get MP's to vote for a "No Deal" exit either ....

But he does not have to get them to, he just needs nothing to happen. Can they force him to extend brexit again?

 

[IanS]

By getting nothing done, it is the default outcome.

You are talking about what has been called the "Nuclear Option", which was also threatened by Dominic Raab until he was ousted from the PM race. See the following from the New Statesman and from the Guardian, which together explains that position in some detail -

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...t-claim-he-could-force-through-no-deal-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/24/theresa-may-replacement-no-deal-brexit-pm

Here is some more with discusssion with a view from inside the HoC from both Labour and Conservative front bench spokesmen -

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-to-back-safety-valve-to-stop-no-deal-brexit


The fact is it would be practically impossible for Boris (or any PM) to refuse to let MPs vote by either proroguing Parliament + refusing any time for any opposition votes + somehow preventing a Vote of No Confidence in the Tory Government (or any other similar artifice). In addition to which, the Speaker (John Berkow) has to agree to let the PM actually do any of that … and according all known reports and all previous precedent, the Speaker will certainly not allow that.

Finally, here is the detail of the legal position if Boris were so 100% reckless and/or insane as to ask/demand the Queen to Prorogue the Parliament -

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019...rogue-parliament-to-deliver-a-no-deal-brexit/

In short – I don't think any political analyst (nor any legal anayst following the above) think it's a realistic opposition for Boris to attempt to force a No Deal exit by running down the clock so as to exclude MPs in the HoC from any vote on the issue.

 

[ponderingturtle]

You are talking about what has been called the "Nuclear Option", which was also threatened by Dominic Raab until he was ousted from the PM race. See the following from the New Statesman and from the Guardian, which together explains that position in some detail -

But it isn't like their votes are binding on anything anyway, what would a vote to refuse to leave with no deal actually do? How will parliament negotiate with the Eu when I thought that when through the PM?

So they get a vote, what would they be voting for that would be binding on Boris that would prevent this?

 

[Francesca R]

I don't think any political analyst (nor any legal anayst following the above) think it's a realistic opposition for Boris to attempt to force a No Deal exit

Understood, and the bookies' odds of it are around 3/1 (25%)

I disagree and think it is significantly more likely than that too.

 

[Lothian]

However, tonight I will be attending a function at which Nigel Farage will also be present, no doubt clutching a pint of beer. My wife was insistent that I should punch him or throw a milkshake over him - I said if I did see him, which is unlikely, I would probably just ignore him, but she then said that that was how we got in this nightmare in the first place.

£350 fine appears par for a chucking milkshakes. I'll chip in £100.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The next Prime Minister will be chosen by 0.3% of the population who are members of the fourth (or fifth) most popular party in the country, so he can railroad through the No Deal Brexit that he said would never happen back in 2016.

Tell me again how Remainers hate democracy

 

[Vixen]

Boris is his character's name, it's meant to be a friendly unpretentious name to show he ain't a posh toff. I've consciously been trying to refer to him by his last name.

He went to Eton on a full scholarship so isn't that posh.