Our next unelected PM?

[Vixen]

And the idea that a shortage of builders etc is a good thing strikes me as bizarre since we're supposed to be building tens of thousands of houses a year.

That's like suggesting a shortage of nurses is a Good Thing.

Otherwise known as a bloody stupid idea.

With the EU nurses and builders migrating back home, Brits simply do not want to work in low salaried jobs which are physically demanding.

The Irish who traditionally used to do the building work often worked cash in hand and thus never qualified for mortgages and ended up in low quality housing stock for generations. Brits can see this and steer well clear.


Now that the cheap labour has gone, employers are being forced to put up wages to attract UK workers.

 

[Vixen]

The report you link actually says it did (a bit)

Anyway, in my view it is entirely plausible that if there is free migration from (on balance) low wage countries to higher wage countries then of course allowing it should narrow the gap some. The primary reason many EU nationals came to the UK was a sizeable income bump. I think it would be extraordinary to expect that this had no effect on pay in the relevant jobs.

But 1) it should also mean that prices of the related goods or services should also fall and 2) it should not mean that aggregate wages fall and 3) it seems that none of these effects are anything but small even though the pre-existing differences in wages between the UK and countries that large migration came from are actually rather big.

Personally I think benefits of migration are much bigger than costs and I would have voted for a political party that had a manifesto to increase net immigration to a million rather than one promising to cut it to 100,000, but I would not deny there are any costs.

Ah, ninja-ed. There is a reason the UK has three million free movement EU migrants and other EU countries only have eight-hundred thousand free moving Brits between them.

 

[Vixen]

A certainty in politics you say? And what's more, alleged certainty of outcome in what is clearly the most uncertain of times in UK politics for perhaps 100 years. I think, not!

To repeat (sorry about that!) - if Boris becomes PM (looks highly likely at present ... but almost any surprise could happen yet; especially with Boris!), then it's very likely that he will get no new deal from the EU, and he will as a result be forced to offer the HoC a No Deal Exit ... on all evidence so far, that option would be rejected by MP's (though it could be very close) ... in that case Boris begins to look to the Conservative MP's like an even greater liability and an even bigger embarrassment than Mrs May in her very worst moments ... that may easily lead to a General Election ...

... in that case, Farage has already sworn that he will field a nationwide set of candidates for his Brexit Party.

If you think the Brexit party cannot possibly win, then you are an absolutely awful judge of politics lol!

Farage & his Brexit Party may not be the favourites in a GE, but they already showed that they can count on about 30% of the electorate as absolutely insistent on voting for Farage regardless of any other policies or any other issues at all. That, by any parties standards, is a very big threat indeed ...

... and they do not need anything else at all in a Manifesto. For Farage, the Brexit party, and about 30% of the electorate, this would be a one-issue election.

30% may not be enough to give Farage victory, but he would probably only need to pick up another 6% or 7% (something like that … keep in mind, that would be 6% -7% votes gone from any of the other parties).

Personally as I said above, I think the most likely result would be a narrowish Labour victory, with say a Majority of maybe 15 seats. But another obvious possibility is that Labour and Lib Dem could agree on an anti-Brexit coalition, with their votes added together to give a majority of maybe about 30 or 40.

People will vote very differently in a General Election than in any mid-term or EU one. A large percentage of the Farage vote was a protest vote.

Look what happened in Leicester (???iirc) where that Labour MP was kicked out for perverting justice and a bye-election had to be held. The Brexit Party were so confident it would win, not only did Nigel Farage turn up but Richard Tice did, too. Red faces all round. Nigel did a runner.

 

[IanS]

People will vote very differently in a General Election than in any mid-term or EU one. A large percentage of the Farage vote was a protest vote.

Look what happened in Leicester (???iirc) where that Labour MP was kicked out for perverting justice and a bye-election had to be held. The Brexit Party were so confident it would win, not only did Nigel Farage turn up but Richard Tice did, too. Red faces all round. Nigel did a runner.

Just re. the by-election (see footnote) ...

In more normal circumstances people certainly do vote differently in both local elections and EU elections vs. how they vote in a General Election ... I was saying exactly that myself some pages back. But these are very far from normal times...

... if anything at all is obvious about the present situation, it is that Farage has a very solid 30% of the UK electorate who will vote for his Brexit party no matter what (they are not interested in anything else, and will vote purely on that one issue to get the UK out of the EU) ...

... in fact most of that 30% are now so enraged that they actually want us to leave with no deal (you hear that over & over again in every interview the media has with UK voters).

So I think it's very likely indeed, and all evidence so far shows, that Farage would almost certainly get about 30% of the vote in a General Election. And he might get the bit extra that he would need, e.g. to 36%) ...

... but nothing is guaranteed here (very far from it in fact), and all sorts of things could yet happen to seriously dent the votes of any of the parties (inc. Farage and his Brexit Party).

I think we are simply in seriously uncharted waters, and none of the parties can be confident at all about how all this mess will turn out.

One thing for sure though (because it's history) – 3 years ago before the referendum, most political analysts would have thought it virtually impossible that Farage would have upset the apple cart to the extent that he now has.

Personally I can't stand Farage, and I want a more caring & more equal society in the UK, so I'm horrified at the prospect of Farage and his Brexit Party gaining power in Britain. But I suppose, and I hope, that if Farage did win the most seats in a General Election, then Labour and Lib Dem would immediately form a coalition to stop him.


Footnote - re any By-Election; do you mean the Peterborough by-election on 7th June this year? Where, Brexit actually came a very strong second to Labour! On the basis of results like that, we certainly do have to expect Brexit/Farage to get pretty close to winning a General Election!

 

[Darat]

that political correctness is a facade people pay lip service to in public, and make their opinions REALLY known when it suits them.

Of course {modern} political correctness is a facade, it was invented as a strawman for the self labeled "right" leaning USA to use against what they considered to be their enemies i.e. those to the left of themselves.

 

[Francesca R]

if Boris becomes PM (looks highly likely at present ... but almost any surprise could happen yet; especially with Boris!), then it's very likely that he will get no new deal from the EU, and he will as a result be forced to offer the HoC a No Deal Exit ... on all evidence so far, that option would be rejected by MP's (though it could be very close) ... in that case Boris begins to look to the Conservative MP's like an even greater liability and an even bigger embarrassment than Mrs May in her very worst moments ... that may easily lead to a General Election ...

I think you have that wrong. BJ will not secure any concessions from the EU, and he will have the UK leave on no deal.

MPs do not have to agree with this or vote for it and they can not stop it either. It is a big risk and may ultimately undo Boris, but not for at least two years I think.

And if he and everyone know one thing by now, it is that you have to do something Theresa May did not do. Repeating what she did is Einstein's definition of insanity.

(What stops this is enough Tory MPs being willing to bring the government down. How likely that is is left as an exercise for the reader)

 

[The Don]

Just re. the by-election (see footnote) ...

In more normal circumstances people certainly do vote differently in both local elections and EU elections vs. how they vote in a General Election ... I was saying exactly that myself some pages back. But these are very far from normal times...

... if anything at all is obvious about the present situation, it is that Farage has a very solid 30% of the UK electorate who will vote for his Brexit party no matter what (they are not interested in anything else, and will vote purely on that one issue to get the UK out of the EU) ...

... in fact most of that 30% are now so enraged that they actually want us to leave with no deal (you hear that over & over again in every interview the media has with UK voters).

So I think it's very likely indeed, and all evidence so far shows, that Farage would almost certainly get about 30% of the vote in a General Election. And he might get the bit extra that he would need, e.g. to 36%) ...

... but nothing is guaranteed here (very far from it in fact), and all sorts of things could yet happen to seriously dent the votes of any of the parties (inc. Farage and his Brexit Party).

I think we are simply in seriously uncharted waters, and none of the parties can be confident at all about how all this mess will turn out.

One thing for sure though (because it's history) – 3 years ago before the referendum, most political analysts would have thought it virtually impossible that Farage would have upset the apple cart to the extent that he now has.

Personally I can't stand Farage, and I want a more caring & more equal society in the UK, so I'm horrified at the prospect of Farage and his Brexit Party gaining power in Britain. But I suppose, and I hope, that if Farage did win the most seats in a General Election, then Labour and Lib Dem would immediately form a coalition to stop him.


Footnote - re any By-Election; do you mean the Peterborough by-election on 7th June this year? Where, Brexit actually came a very strong second to Labour! On the basis of results like that, we certainly do have to expect Brexit/Farage to get pretty close to winning a General Election!

That's one way to look at it. Another is that in a strongly leave constituency against a remain labour candidate and in a by election which attracts a protest vote, Farage failed yet again

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Seriously.
Daft as many people in this country are, we won't be getting Farage as PM.

No, but he might hold enough Tory votes before a GE, or seats afterwards to leverage considerable influence, especially in the likelihood or event of another hung Parliament. We might find ourselves thinking back fondly to when the DUP had May by the short and curlies.

 

[a_unique_person]

I think you have that wrong. BJ will not secure any concessions from the EU, and he will have the UK leave on no deal.

MPs do not have to agree with this or vote for it and they can not stop it either. It is a big risk and may ultimately undo Boris, but not for at least two years I think.

And if he and everyone know one thing by now, it is that you have to do something Theresa May did not do. Repeating what she did is Einstein's definition of insanity.

(What stops this is enough Tory MPs being willing to bring the government down. How likely that is is left as an exercise for the reader)

Boris has made sure that if there is one group of people he has not an ounce of good will with, it is the EU.

 

[Puppycow]

Will you be providing a citation for this claim?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestic_violence_in_the_United_Kingdom#Prevalence

According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) about 4.2% of men and 7.9 % of women suffer domestic abuse in the UK during 2018[10]. This equates to about 685,000 male victims and 1,300,000 women.

A bit over half as likely. Still, statistics don't tell you much about a particular incident. I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that he was the aggressor here, given that she was the one who was yelling.

 

[The Don]

Good to see that Jeremy Hunt is proposing that the Conservatives continue to be the party of fiscal responsibility

Jeremy Hunt's promises in his race to be the next Conservative Party leader would cost between £37-65bn, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48772596

At least Boris is sticking to the script...(from the same BBC article)

The IFS has also analysed Mr Hunt's rival Boris Johnson's tax plan and said they would cost "many billions" and benefit the wealthy the most.

 

[Darat]

Seriously.

Daft as many people in this country are, we won't be getting Farage as PM.

No but imagine if whatever he is calling his party this week had say just 10 MPs....

 

[Darat]

I don't have any clear idea of what Farage would do if his Brexit party did win a GE in Britain, i.e. whether he'd actually step down as head of that Party and let another of it's MP's take over as PM.



But many people who have worked with Boris Johnson, both within the Conservative party and before that when Boris was editor of the Spectator, say Boris's method of doing a job is not to do it himself but instead to appoint other people to do it for him. Also, whilst I'm bing unkind/unfair to Boris - I don't know how many people have checked his actual name, but its rather showy/flamboyant in parts, i.e. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson .

Boris is his character's name, it's meant to be a friendly unpretentious name to show he ain't a posh toff. I've consciously been trying to refer to him by his last name.

 

[Darat]

Good to see that Jeremy Hunt is proposing that the Conservatives continue to be the party of fiscal responsibility



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48772596

At least Boris is sticking to the script...(from the same BBC article)

What is amazing, is how they harp on about having to leave the EU because it is undemocratic not to do, we have to deliver what we told the nation we would in our manifesto all that malarkey but are quite happy to rip up the manifesto they were elected on other points. You'd almost think there wasn't a principle....

 

[IanS]

Yep. And the only way the Brexit party will even stand in the next GE (assuming it's before Brexit day) is if there is any doubt about whether the UK is actually going to leave. Johnson knows this and will do anything to ensure we do leave.

How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?

He is extremely unlikely to get any better deal from the EU (or even any different deal at all). And all previous votes in the HoC say he will not be able to get MP's to vote for a "No Deal" exit either ....

... so how on earth is he going to "ensure we do leave"?

So far, all the evidence is that Boris will NOT be able to get the UK to leave.

We've seen Boris in several interviews now (I just posted one above, with Laura Kuenssberg from the BBC), and he was 100% totally incapable of explaining any plan at all of how he was going to get the EU to make any more concessions …. his “plan” is apparently (according to Boris himself) to just bluff his way through and hope that his non-existent "charm" as an amiable buffoon persuades the EU to do what they have consistently insisted they will not do, and where they already showed they will not do it when Mrs May tried to re-negociate for a better deal.


Well, stranger things have happened in politics, and some catrastrophic worldwide event may change everything for everyone. But on the face of things it's cloud cuckoo land to think that Boris will achieve anything better at all from either the EU or from a vote amongst MPs in the HoC.

 

[IanS]

That's one way to look at it. Another is that in a strongly leave constituency against a remain labour candidate and in a by election which attracts a protest vote, Farage failed yet again

Well it's an objective factual way to look at it - the fact is that Brexit did get a hell of lot of votes in that by-election. And they got more votes than any other party in the recent EU elections. And this is a party that did not even exist until just a few months ago.

Until David Cameron made the disastrous decision to offer the UK public a referendum on leaving the EU, if anyone had said that in a matter of just weeks Farage would suddenly create a right-wing party that was really a barely concealed version of something close to the BNP or National Front, and that it would immediately beat the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems to get more votes than any of them in nationwide election, then they would have been regarded as crazy and wildly into the area of conspiracy theories to suggest such a thing ... but, the fact is, that has indeed what has actually happened.

I think there's no doubt that all the other parties are now taking Farage and his party very seriously indeed (at least, they dammed well better had be taking it seriously).

 

[Francesca R]

How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?

By getting nothing done, it is the default outcome.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12012M050&from=EN#d1e32-13-1

 

[lionking]

The "Blairite" Labour Party is the only party that has beaten the Tories in a general election in the last 30 years. The last eleven general elections were won by Tories eight times and Tony Blair three times. James Callaghan, Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn were all losers. I know Tony Blair did some bad things during his presidency prime ministership including climbing inside GW Bush's bottom but the Blairites were able to make Labour electable.

I’m glad someone said this. The only thing you can do in opposition as far as too many Labour (and Labor in Australia) supporters are concerned is to remain ideological pure. And unelectable. As I think will be Corbyn’s fate, even against an abysmal opponent.

For all of Blair’s (and Hawke’s and Keating’s) faults, he led, and led pretty well.

 

[The Don]

Well it's an objective factual way to look at it - the fact is that Brexit did get a hell of lot of votes in that by-election. And they got more votes than any other party in the recent EU elections. And this is a party that did not even exist until just a few months ago.

Until David Cameron made the disastrous decision to offer the UK public a referendum on leaving the EU, if anyone had said that in a matter of just weeks Farage would suddenly create a right-wing party that was really a barely concealed version of something close to the BNP or National Front, and that it would immediately beat the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems to get more votes than any of them in nationwide election, then they would have been regarded as crazy and wildly into the area of conspiracy theories to suggest such a thing ... but, the fact is, that has indeed what has actually happened.

I think there's no doubt that all the other parties are now taking Farage and his party very seriously indeed (at least, they dammed well better had be taking it seriously).

They both are taking it very seriously.

The Conservatives seem determined to become the Brexit Party.

The Labour Party is typically bipolar and isn't entirely sure whether to become a clearly defined opposition to the Brexit Party (in line with the views of 75%+ of its supporters) or, if Jeremy Corbyn has his way, to try and persuade Brexit Party supporters to vote Labour (a fool's errand IMO).

 

[Tolls]

Farage & his Brexit Party may not be the favourites in a GE, but they already showed that they can count on about 30% of the electorate as absolutely insistent on voting for Farage regardless of any other policies or any other issues at all. That, by any parties standards, is a very big threat indeed ...

They achieved 31.6% in the EU election, on a turnout of 36%.

They will not achieve anywhere near that in a general, where turnout tends to be 65-70%.

Footnote - re any By-Election; do you mean the Peterborough by-election on 7th June this year? Where, Brexit actually came a very strong second to Labour! On the basis of results like that, we certainly do have to expect Brexit/Farage to get pretty close to winning a General Election!

As The Don says, a by election in one of the more staunchly Leave constituencies in the country, and they failed to win at a point where Brexit fever is rather high.

No, but he might hold enough Tory votes before a GE, or seats afterwards to leverage considerable influence, especially in the likelihood or event of another hung Parliament. We might find ourselves thinking back fondly to when the DUP had May by the short and curlies.

The Brexit party will suck votes from the Tories far more than they will from Labour.

This does not mean those Tory seats go Brexit, it means those Tory seats go Labour or Lib Dem.

Labour will not form a deal with Farage.

No but imagine if whatever he is calling his party this week had say just 10 MPs....

Which bears no relationship to what would happen in the case of a GE.
The Brexit party will sap seats from the Tories far more than Labour, not to take the seats but to lose them.

If Farage stands his party up for an election, as he says he will, then it's Johnson and the Tories that will suffer.

In addition, Farage will need a manifesto. And that's ripe for tearing apart.