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North Korea/South Korea
- Thread starter alfaniner
- Start date
You're being naughty, to misdirect me. Comment on this please
Because of the military service, there would be no way to keep military and civilian targets separate.
It's a fallacy like any other, arguably no better or worse than most. What of it?
McHrozni
The Great Zaganza
Maledictorian
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How would you distinguish? Only those wearing uniforms?
North Koreans have been indoctrinated since Kindergarten to defend their leader with their lives. Why would we assume that only those on active duty would fight back?
North Koreans have been indoctrinated since Kindergarten to defend their leader with their lives. Why would we assume that only those on active duty would fight back?
It's really quite simple once you realize I'm not advocating an invasion of North Korea, but a destruction of their military that could potentially present a military threat outside of North Korea.
Hordes of armed peasants or any other potential military target that isn't marching south can be ignored. Stuff like that that is marching south is taken out. Cities are left in peace, once the airfields and missile pads are in pieces.
The only really dangerous tactic North Korea could attempt to utilize in this case is that of ISIS - have fanatics infiltrate hordes of refugees to conduct terrorist attacks later. South Korea already has a strategy for dealing with this - filtration camps - the only problem is one of scale. Longer stays may be necessary. North Korean regime couldn't survive such a drain for very long anyway.
McHrozni
Considering the number of people who manage to flee each year I would lay fair odds that the indoctrination is only skin deep in many cases.
The idea that the population is mostly brain-washed drones is, I suspect, rather fanciful.
Case in point, they banned the heinous crime of sarcasm only last week.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...casm-kim-jong-un-freedom-speech-a7231461.html
Officials told people that sarcastic expressions such as “This is all America’s fault” would constitute unacceptable criticism of the regime.
I suppose this makes attending funerals of Dear leaders (or equivalents) rather suicidal, more so than just simply being a North Korean.
McHrozni
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The Great Zaganza
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Read some interviews of refugees or workers from NK: most still retain a strong sense of devotion to their Dear Leader, and maybe even return.
No doubt, but Dear leader croaked five years ago this December. His kid isn't nearly as popular.
McHrozni
The ones I've read don't.
They clearly aren't so devoted as to actually, you know, remain.
They've been brainwashed by the state propaganda machine all their lives, so they do consider Dear leader as something akin to how Jesus is seen by really devout Christians (or perhaps more similarly, Allah by members of ISIS). I have little doubt the majority of defectors would gladly get on their knees before Dear leader or Great leader and do their bidding (including unsavory deeds of sexual nature) if they were told so.
But they aren't alive any more, and I sincerely doubt all that many North Koreans would throw away their lives to protect, well, just about anything else in their country. Some would, and I strongly suspect most of them are members of their special forces.
McHrozni
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Jules Galen
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North Korea fight back? With what?
The annual South Korean Military Budget (est $35.7 Billion nominal) is more than twice as great as the entire Gross Domestic Product of North Korea (est $15.4 Billion nominal).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Korea_Armed_Forces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea#Military
The premise that North Korea would go to war with any other country is laughable.
Jules Galen
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I have to prove I have little doubt about something? Please spell out for me how I can do that, don't spare the details.
I edited your post in my quote for accuracy.
McHrozni
angrysoba
Philosophile
There are a lot of people who leave North Korea because they are starving and have to earn a living somehow. They often go to China, get jobs and work in Korean restaurants there, then make regular trips back over the border with food for their families.
Some people also leave because they fear for their lives because they believe they could get into trouble with local authorities, but many of them believe that if the Great Leader, Dear Leader or the Little Chubby One found out their plight, they would intervene.
There have also been a few high level defections which involve a higher number of openly critical figures, and there are a number of refugees who were never taken in, but for many the programming does seem to stick.
Delvo
Дэлво Δε&#
Whenever the subject of NK's artillery pointed at SK has come up before, I've only thought that SK knows precisely how bad to think that particular threat is, and must already have its own answer for how much of a risk a pre-emptive strike would be because of them, both with and without American help. It's fairly straightforward math: how long would it take to hit them all, and how much can they fire before that time is up. But some key information didn't seem to be available to the public, so I figured there was no way for us at this forum to evaluate the situation ourselves and come up with anything other than "just wait for SK to tell us what SK wants". However, this time, I looked around a bit again, and now I have the answer to a central question: how many pieces of artillery we are talking about. The answer is 700. (NK has more artillery than that, but most of it is not an immediate threat to SK.)
So, that's how many targets SK, or the USA, or both, would need to hit as fast as possible. There's no doubt that every one of those guns would get destroyed, because NK has essentially nothing for air defense, but the question is how long it would take, because each one could keep firing til it's hit. Obviously, surprise is important, so let's not bother considering any weapon system that they would see coming, like B-52, the F-"teen" fighters, A-10, or AC-130. The USA has 20 B-2s and 62 B-1s in service. B-1 is not a "stealth" plane, but was designed to penetrate the USSR by other means around 1980 against detection-&-defense systems no worse than NK's current ones, and also had some subtle redesign work to substantially reduce radar signature before it went into "mass" production.
Together, that's (2×20)+(3×62)=226 of essentially the same kind of bomb bay, each of which can carry eight 2000-pound bombs, or dozens of smaller bombs, at a time. Normally, you'd expect to use a relatively small bomb (200-500 pounds) on a piece of artillery and 1000-or-2000-pounders on big buildings, but, just for the sake of making this as hard on USAF as possible, let's assume every NK gun we need to hit is protected well enough to require one of those bigger bombs.
USAF can still put 226×8=1808 of those in the air simultaneously in delivery systems that NK would not see coming.
That's 2.6 bombs per target... without counting the couple hundred (and growing) stealth fighters which can also internally carry another couple of 500/1000-pound bombs apiece. Of course, not all of those planes & bombs are near Korea at any given time, and flying all at once isn't normal practice (and it would get pretty "crowded" by aircraft standards along a border only 160 miles long). But they could be moved within a day or two... and that's if they wanted to do this entirely with bombs dropped from planes; it still didn't take into account the various surface-to-surface missiles at nearby Army bases... or the dozens of such missiles apiece aboard the probably at least a dozen cruisers & destroyers & submarines within short-notice range at any given time. In other words, the entire NK artillery threat to SK could be eliminated pretty much simultaneously without a chance for a shot to be fired in response, even if most of the possible assets for such a strike weren't used and most of the attempts we did make missed. Adding a few more targets to the list to hit the ballistic missile sites that they claim could hit the USA (or Japan!) would not change the picture much.
For SK to do it alone is more troublesome. They have thousands of pieces of artillery, tanks, and surface-to-surface rockets/missiles, but most or all of it is smaller ammo/warheads meant for smaller targets, and/or can't maneuver itself to a target once launched, and/or might need to be conspicuously moved into place first and give the plan away. They have a total of 478 fighters which can certainly carry more than two bombs apiece, so that's well more than enough bombs for 700 targets, but some of the planes & bombs they have might not have particularly modern targeting systems, which would make their hit rate lower. (Apparently the purchase of more GPS-JDAM kits is in the works to address this, but it hasn't happened yet.) And none of them have a hint of radar signature reduction, so NK could see them coming at any time during the flight there from SK bases, which could be around an hour. If they put everything into it all at once, they could go for every single gun they need to hit in a single wave, but they'd probably need a second wave to get any that are left where the bombs just didn't land close enough the first time. They would simply need to deal with whatever amount of firing those guns could do from the time the planes launched til it was over.
In a few years they will have their own stealth fighters, so at least the first wave would be a total surprise, so the guns couldn't start firing until some of them were already gone. The initial purchase will only be for 40 planes. Even if you do fly them all simultaneously, that's enough for 80 big bombs or 320 small ones, so a second non-stealth wave would still be needed about an hour behind the first one to get all 700 guns. So a stealth attack from SK without help would significantly reduce what the guns could do before it was over, but not eliminate it.
So, that's how many targets SK, or the USA, or both, would need to hit as fast as possible. There's no doubt that every one of those guns would get destroyed, because NK has essentially nothing for air defense, but the question is how long it would take, because each one could keep firing til it's hit. Obviously, surprise is important, so let's not bother considering any weapon system that they would see coming, like B-52, the F-"teen" fighters, A-10, or AC-130. The USA has 20 B-2s and 62 B-1s in service. B-1 is not a "stealth" plane, but was designed to penetrate the USSR by other means around 1980 against detection-&-defense systems no worse than NK's current ones, and also had some subtle redesign work to substantially reduce radar signature before it went into "mass" production.
Together, that's (2×20)+(3×62)=226 of essentially the same kind of bomb bay, each of which can carry eight 2000-pound bombs, or dozens of smaller bombs, at a time. Normally, you'd expect to use a relatively small bomb (200-500 pounds) on a piece of artillery and 1000-or-2000-pounders on big buildings, but, just for the sake of making this as hard on USAF as possible, let's assume every NK gun we need to hit is protected well enough to require one of those bigger bombs.
USAF can still put 226×8=1808 of those in the air simultaneously in delivery systems that NK would not see coming.
That's 2.6 bombs per target... without counting the couple hundred (and growing) stealth fighters which can also internally carry another couple of 500/1000-pound bombs apiece. Of course, not all of those planes & bombs are near Korea at any given time, and flying all at once isn't normal practice (and it would get pretty "crowded" by aircraft standards along a border only 160 miles long). But they could be moved within a day or two... and that's if they wanted to do this entirely with bombs dropped from planes; it still didn't take into account the various surface-to-surface missiles at nearby Army bases... or the dozens of such missiles apiece aboard the probably at least a dozen cruisers & destroyers & submarines within short-notice range at any given time. In other words, the entire NK artillery threat to SK could be eliminated pretty much simultaneously without a chance for a shot to be fired in response, even if most of the possible assets for such a strike weren't used and most of the attempts we did make missed. Adding a few more targets to the list to hit the ballistic missile sites that they claim could hit the USA (or Japan!) would not change the picture much.
For SK to do it alone is more troublesome. They have thousands of pieces of artillery, tanks, and surface-to-surface rockets/missiles, but most or all of it is smaller ammo/warheads meant for smaller targets, and/or can't maneuver itself to a target once launched, and/or might need to be conspicuously moved into place first and give the plan away. They have a total of 478 fighters which can certainly carry more than two bombs apiece, so that's well more than enough bombs for 700 targets, but some of the planes & bombs they have might not have particularly modern targeting systems, which would make their hit rate lower. (Apparently the purchase of more GPS-JDAM kits is in the works to address this, but it hasn't happened yet.) And none of them have a hint of radar signature reduction, so NK could see them coming at any time during the flight there from SK bases, which could be around an hour. If they put everything into it all at once, they could go for every single gun they need to hit in a single wave, but they'd probably need a second wave to get any that are left where the bombs just didn't land close enough the first time. They would simply need to deal with whatever amount of firing those guns could do from the time the planes launched til it was over.
In a few years they will have their own stealth fighters, so at least the first wave would be a total surprise, so the guns couldn't start firing until some of them were already gone. The initial purchase will only be for 40 planes. Even if you do fly them all simultaneously, that's enough for 80 big bombs or 320 small ones, so a second non-stealth wave would still be needed about an hour behind the first one to get all 700 guns. So a stealth attack from SK without help would significantly reduce what the guns could do before it was over, but not eliminate it.
Or else rely on means other than high precision bombs to take out those positions. It depends on how hardened the bunkers are, but dropping a couple dozen (hundred?) fuel-air bombs has a good chance of neutralizing the crews at least. The guns can then be taken out at a much less frantic pace.
I'm sure ROK armed forces have at least two distinct plans to take those guns out before they flatten their capital that also happens to be their largest population center by far and a cornerstone of their economy.
McHrozni
I see the initial "precision" idea has now been replaced with a "couple hundred" fuel-air bombs. So the principles enunciated by you in #13
The same military goals can now be achieved with a fraction of the raw tonnage of bombs needed six decades ago. And without having to resort to similar volumes of area effect munitions.
now appear to have been diluted.It really depends on the target you pick. If it's a system of heavily entrenched guns pointing at a city of over 20 million people different principles apply than if the target is a ammunition depot surrounded by kindergartens (Hamas style).
If you can't understand the distinction instantly it would probably be better you refrained from commenting on these matters until you do.
McHrozni
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