North Korea readies missiles against the USA

[Wolfman]

To those advocating military action against NK...a quick reality check.

The United States is already strained to its limits militarily. Its finances are out of control, just trying to cover current military activities. And you think that they're in a position to start another war -- against a very well-armed opponent, who has nuclear weapons at their disposal -- in an entirely different region of the world?

Meanwhile, China -- with the world's largest standing army, and military strength second only to the U.S. -- is right next door, and pretty damn certain to respond to American military action that takes place right on its own doorstep.

Reality check. If the U.S. gets involved, they will lose. Period. Because while they might possibly have a chance fighting NK (although given the logistics, I'd argue that even that is debatable), they wouldn't have a freakin' chance once China got involved.

Furthermore, the U.S. gov't is fully aware of this. Obama doesn't want another war, in another part of the world. He doesn't want to strain an American economy that is already in serious trouble with even more military costs (and we're talking billions of dollars here). And he most definitely doesn't want military conflict with China.

And I guaran-damn-tee that he doesn't want to go down as the President who lost the war with North Korea.

I'm not defending NK at all. The overthrow of their gov't would be the best thing that could happen, for their people, and for the rest of the world. And if South Korea can pull that off, without the involvement of American troops, China probably wouldn't do anything. But I seriously doubt that South Korea could win such a conflict on their own.

Its a lose-lose proposition. Spout idealistic dreams all ya' want...the people in charge have to deal with cold, hard reality.

 

[InfidelSavant]

Relevent?

 

[dtugg]

I don't think that the USA would or should get involved in invading and occupying that craphole should it come to that. But it should use the full force of its virtually invincible Air Force and Navy to destroy the North's ability to wage war. The South can then invade the North, get rid of the Kims forever, and hopefully reunify the country.

I predict the Chinese would do nothing to the USA. What could they do? Start shooting down American planes and sinking American ships? Assuming they have the ability (big if), I highly doubt it. What reason do they have for risking WWIII with the USA over that ****hole?

 

[MikeMangum]

Meanwhile, China -- with the world's largest standing army, and military strength second only to the U.S. -- is right next door, and pretty damn certain to respond to American military action that takes place right on its own doorstep.

Reality check. If the U.S. gets involved, they will lose. Period. Because while they might possibly have a chance fighting NK (although given the logistics, I'd argue that even that is debatable), they wouldn't have a freakin' chance once China got involved.

Firstly, the US wouldn't do something without at the very least informing China first, unless it was an immediate response to an attack (which is probably the only thing the US would do anyway). Secondly, I think you vastly overestimate China's willingness to engage in a shooting war with its primary trading partner and the source of its economic growth.

 

[angrysoba]

Actually a lot has happened. There has been a shake up in the South Korean government and the mood in the South has turned dramatically. Most SK supported peaceful overtures to resolve tension. Now, particularly among the younger SK population they want to start bitch slapping the North

I'll believe it when I see it.

There was anger about the way in which the defence minister's department didn't react well to the North Korean attacks but when I see South Koreans out on the streets demanding action from the South Korean government in the same numbers as those who opposed beef imports from the US then I'll think they take it seriously. Until then I'll believe that the general feeling in South Korea is that their northern neighbours are slightly wayward and childlike people who don't understand how to behave properly and the biggest problem on the peninsula is those dastardly Yankees.

 

[angrysoba]

To those advocating military action against NK...a quick reality check.

The United States is already strained to its limits militarily. Its finances are out of control, just trying to cover current military activities. And you think that they're in a position to start another war -- against a very well-armed opponent, who has nuclear weapons at their disposal -- in an entirely different region of the world?

Meanwhile, China -- with the world's largest standing army, and military strength second only to the U.S. -- is right next door, and pretty damn certain to respond to American military action that takes place right on its own doorstep.

Reality check. If the U.S. gets involved, they will lose. Period. Because while they might possibly have a chance fighting NK (although given the logistics, I'd argue that even that is debatable), they wouldn't have a freakin' chance once China got involved.

Furthermore, the U.S. gov't is fully aware of this. Obama doesn't want another war, in another part of the world. He doesn't want to strain an American economy that is already in serious trouble with even more military costs (and we're talking billions of dollars here). And he most definitely doesn't want military conflict with China.

And I guaran-damn-tee that he doesn't want to go down as the President who lost the war with North Korea.

I'm not defending NK at all. The overthrow of their gov't would be the best thing that could happen, for their people, and for the rest of the world. And if South Korea can pull that off, without the involvement of American troops, China probably wouldn't do anything. But I seriously doubt that South Korea could win such a conflict on their own.

Its a lose-lose proposition. Spout idealistic dreams all ya' want...the people in charge have to deal with cold, hard reality.

I don't favour military action right now.

I favour a concerted effort to depose the regime from within using all the propaganda methods at the disposal of the governments of the Republic of Korea, Japan and the United States.

 

[Wolfman]

I predict the Chinese would do nothing to the USA. What could they do? Start shooting down American planes and sinking American ships? Assuming they have the ability (big if), I highly doubt it. What reason do they have for risking WWIII with the USA over that ****hole?

The U.S. would have to fight a land war in N. Korea, if they were going to accomplish anything. That means shipping military forces over to Asia; provisioning them; etc. Keep in mind that a significant part of the U.S. military is still tied up in the Middle East. Keep in mind that the people of the U.S. would almost certainly revolt against a government that got them tied up in yet another war, stretching their military beyond reason (and quite possibly requiring reinstating the draft in order to provide enough troops), and kicking the **** out of an already badly bruised economy.

Meanwhile, China's right there. Walk across the N. Korean border, and they're in China. They can throw wave after wave of soldiers at it...and also have a very impressive arsenal of weapons that they've been building over the years. Weapons that can very quickly and easily be shifted across the border, and deployed instantly...unlike American weapons.

And China knows it wouldn't be WW III, because while it might end up having Chinese and Americans fighting on Korean soil, neither side would ever actually attack each other on their own soil (which is exactly what happened in the original Korean war...more than adequate precedent to illustrate my point)

Firstly, the US wouldn't do something without at the very least informing China first, unless it was an immediate response to an attack (which is probably the only thing the US would do anyway). Secondly, I think you vastly overestimate China's willingness to engage in a shooting war with its primary trading partner and the source of its economic growth.

I think that you vastly underestimate China's paranoia about a nation that it still considers its political opponent, and a direct military threat, to be waging a war right on its very borders. China's far more willing to sacrifice economic gain for political victory than most Western countries would be...particularly when it knows that its got a good chance it would win.

Hell...it could be a godsend for them. A war starts. The U.S. gets involved. China gets involved. Using the pretext of war on their border (and the inevitable fact that N. Korea will directly request military support from the Chinese ally, making everything 'legal', ie. its not an invasion), China moves into N. Korea. Once there, their military quickly takes over, pushing back S. Korea and the U.S.

Most importantly in this scenario, China takes over N. Korea by installing a puppet government (possibly force Kim Jong Il to resign, and appoint his son the official leader...but his son is directly controlled by the Chinese gov't). The puppet gov't requests Chinese forces stay in N. Korea, to "maintain stability".

They then announce that they are stopping the aggression against S. Korea, and the war is over.

End result: China wins control of N. Korea, eliminating a threat to them, and the rest of the world. The U.S. backs down willingly, recognizing that with the Chinese in charge, the N. Korean threat is largely eliminated, and that they're very highly unlikely to win a land war against China. The U.S. has just spent billions of dollars they don't have, only to "lose" the war in N. Korea for a second time.

China has far, far less to lose from a war in Korea than the U.S. does. China has the world's largest standing army...and is not currently involved in any wars. Their entire military force can be deployed and focused exclusively on N. Korea, which is directly across the border. Put that up against an American military that has to travel halfway around the world, with much of its strength already committed elsewhere, and an economy that, at best, is struggling.

 

[WildCat]

I am 100% confident that if they fire a single rocket at an American or SK ship during the next few day's exercises, they will get a retaliation at a scale not seen since the bombing of Serbia.

What sort of retaliation came when they captured the USS Pueblo?

 

[WildCat]

Do you think that we can go against N Korea in our weakened state? Do you think that China's going to sit by and let us 'beat down' N Korea?

We have lots of assets lying around to support South Korea's 650,000 active and 3 million reserve troops. And that's really all S. Korea needs. China is not going to war over N. Korea these days.

 

[Wolfman]

A quick note here: some people seem to suffer under the delusion that the U.S. has infinite military resources.

It doesn't.

If the U.S. and China were pitted against each other, on a level playing field, with both sides at full power, then I agree...the U.S. would likely kick ass.

But that's not the case. China's military is at full strength, and can be deployed and on the ground in N. Korea within a matter of days. Meanwhile, not only is the U.S. military spread all over the globe, involved in several conflicts, but the U.S. is not even able to adequately provision the existing troops that are in combat! Lack of armor, lack of proper vehicles...these are only some of the problems the U.S. currently faces. And that is against enemies who are far, far less powerful than China.

Unless one believes in a divine entity that is A) going to magically provide more troops, B) provide all the equipment that is currently lacking, C) provide the billions of dollars necessary to wage such a war, and D) ship all those forces, and their equipment, over to Asia in a quick, timely manner...I don't see how the hell you can think the U.S. would have much of a chance at all.

My god. Vietnam. Korea. Afghanistan. How many *********** times does America have to get into a war based on "we are the most powerful *********** country in the world", only to discover that power on paper does not translate to actual power on the ground?

Personally, I think that Obama is smart enough to realize this. And I think he's got enough concern about his own image and legacy not to want to go down in history as the President who lost in Korea for the second time.

 

[WildCat]

Meanwhile, China -- with the world's largest standing army, and military strength second only to the U.S. -- is right next door, and pretty damn certain to respond to American military action that takes place right on its own doorstep.

Reality check. If the U.S. gets involved, they will lose. Period. Because while they might possibly have a chance fighting NK (although given the logistics, I'd argue that even that is debatable), they wouldn't have a freakin' chance once China got involved.

China is not nearly as powerful as you think. They can kill unarmed political demonstrators with the best of them, but against a technologically advanced foe such as the US they are way out of their league. Any airplanes they sent to confront US or SK planes would be shot down immediately, much like Saddam's were. And a million troops without air cover is just so much cannon fodder.

But all that aside, no way do they go to war over N. Korea. They have way to much to lose.

If China is worried about US military presence, they will yank N. Korea back in line. Because if they don't they're going to get way more US military presence than there is now.

eta: and if China decided to war with the US they can kiss bye-bye to all those US treasury bonds they're holding.

 

[WildCat]

But that's not the case. China's military is at full strength, and can be deployed and on the ground in N. Korea within a matter of days.

Why would they? What's in it for them?

 

[Wolfman]

China is not going to war over N. Korea these days.

If it is a domestic issue -- ie. North and South Korea fighting each other -- then I agree. And if it is a purely defensive issue -- ie. American troops defending S. Korean soil, but not invading N. Korean territory -- then I agree.

But the moment it becomes an issue of the United States invading an allied country; an issue of their most significant political and military opponent waging a war on their very border; then yes, I'm quite confident that China would go to war.

First, there would be face issues...incredibly important to the Chinese. To turn their back on the N. Koreans, while the Americans invade, would be a show of cowardice in the eyes of many Chinese, and would make the gov't lose phenomenal face.

Meanwhile, there's the knowledge that China most likely would win a conflict with the U.S. in North Korea...or at least be able to fight it to a standstill. Or, as I stated above, even depose the current N. Korean gov't, install a puppet gov't, then declare the war over.

Either of those scenarios leaves the Chinese gov't gaining huge amounts of face, and the very devoted support of their populace at this phenomenal demonstration of beating back the aggressive Americans.

Economic instability? Child's play. The Chinese gov't is an experienced pro at dissolving internal discontent by focusing the citizenry's ire at external enemies. What better enemy than the evil American gov't invading the sovereign territory of a Chinese ally?

The end of such a conflict would leave America's reputation on the world stage even more damaged, while it would promote China's reputation as a world power. I'm quite confident that they're more than willing to risk some temporary economic growth in exchange.

 

[Wolfman]

China is not nearly as powerful as you think. They can kill unarmed political demonstrators with the best of them, but against a technologically advanced foe such as the US they are way out of their league. Any airplanes they sent to confront US or SK planes would be shot down immediately, much like Saddam's were. And a million troops without air cover is just so much cannon fodder.

Afraid you haven't been tracking China's military progress in recent years. Not to mention that the situation in N. Korea would be vastly different than that in Iraq (for one thing, the U.S. was able to devote much of its resources exclusively to that war...not the case in N. Korea, not by a long shot). Where exactly is all the equipment, manpower, weaponry, etc., going to come from? As I mentioned previously, the U.S. is having problems providing adequate supplies, machinery, armor, and transportation for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, who are fighting against a far, far less powerful enemy.

Why would they? What's in it for them?

Read my above analysis. Making the U.S. lose face, gaining international influence, proving themselves as a real world military power, gaining the powerful patriotic support of their own populace...take your pick.

 

[dtugg]

The U.S. would have to fight a land war in N. Korea, if they were going to accomplish anything.

No they wouldn't. NK's ability to wage war for any forseeable future could be eliminated without a single US troop crossing the border. It wouldn't even be hard or that expensive.

SK could then go in and clean up the mess.

 

[WildCat]

Afraid you haven't been tracking China's military progress in recent years. Not to mention that the situation in N. Korea would be vastly different than that in Iraq (for one thing, the U.S. was able to devote much of its resources exclusively to that war...not the case in N. Korea, not by a long shot). Where exactly is all the equipment, manpower, weaponry, etc., going to come from? As I mentioned previously, the U.S. is having problems providing adequate supplies, machinery, armor, and transportation for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, who are fighting against a far, far less powerful enemy.

Why are you assuming the US would engage in a ground invasion of N. Korea? S. Korea is more than capable of handling that all on their own. All the US need is support them with naval and air power, very little of which is tied up in Iraq or Afghanistan now.

Read my above analysis. Making the U.S. lose face, gaining international influence, proving themselves as a real world military power, gaining the powerful patriotic support of their own populace...take your pick.

If China goes to war with the US it certainly wouldn't emerge as a world power. Possibly neither country would be a world power after such a war.

There is no upside to China for going to war over N. Korea.

 

[Quad4_72]

Afraid you haven't been tracking China's military progress in recent years. Not to mention that the situation in N. Korea would be vastly different than that in Iraq (for one thing, the U.S. was able to devote much of its resources exclusively to that war...not the case in N. Korea, not by a long shot). Where exactly is all the equipment, manpower, weaponry, etc., going to come from? As I mentioned previously, the U.S. is having problems providing adequate supplies, machinery, armor, and transportation for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, who are fighting against a far, far less powerful enemy.


Read my above analysis. Making the U.S. lose face, gaining international influence, proving themselves as a real world military power, gaining the powerful patriotic support of their own populace...take your pick.

Here is a decent comparison for the United States Air Force compared to any other country:
http://www.globalfirepower.com/aircraft-total.asp

While air power has definitely been utilized effectively in Iraq and Afghanistan, those two places have been more challenging because of the lack of traditional tactical targets. If we went to war with North Korea, they absolutely would not stand a chance. With easily definable targets (Such as anti aircraft systems, tanks, military buildings, etc) in a traditional style warfare, the United States is not only unmatched, but completely dominates any other country, to include China.

 

[Pardalis]

If they try anything like that this should solve the problem of North Korea rather swiftly.

 

[dtugg]

Here is a decent comparison for the United States Air Force compared to any other country:
http://www.globalfirepower.com/aircraft-total.asp

While air power has definitely been utilized effectively in Iraq and Afghanistan, those two places have been more challenging because of the lack of traditional tactical targets. If we went to war with North Korea, they absolutely would not stand a chance. With easily definable targets (Such as anti aircraft systems, tanks, military buildings, etc) in a traditional style warfare, the United States is not only unmatched, but completely dominates any other country, to include China.

Not to mention the USN whose airwing probably out matches the air force of any country in the world. The USA has 11 supercarriers (which are of course escorted by several other ships). No other country even has one. In terms of naval power, the USA so completely dominates it isn't even funny.

 

[WildCat]

China is also getting sent a message:

South Korea and the United States on Sunday began joint naval exercises that will include live fire and bombing drills as hermetic North Korea deployed missiles close to the Yellow Sea and warned that it will turn the region into "a merciless shower of fire" if its territory is violated.

...China, North Korea's main ally and economic partner, also warned last week against military exercises without China's "permission" in what Beijing considers its exclusive economic zone. Beijing has pointedly refused to condemn North Korea for the attack.

The message to China is "we don't need your permission, so go stuff yourself and rein in your boy".

At some point, China will have to realize that having N. Korea as an ally does it far more harm than good.