My "ESP" experiences

[DangerousBeliefs]

How does a skeptic propose to test someone's 'ESP' experiences when that person doesn't even know when those experiences will occur, and can't control them when they do occur? [/B]

You mean it appears to be the same as random chance but we forget the failures and remember the successes?

I have that kind of ESP too!

 

[epepke]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: My "ESP" experiences

The intention is good, but if Stereolab cannot control and doesn't know when he gets his 'ESP' experiences, then it seems that setting up a controlled test becomes more than problematic.

Why are you making misstatements?

He said that these were unique in that he knew, that is, had a feeling of certain knowledge, when he had the experiences. It would be quite simple for him to make sure that he is always in range of a record-keeping device, such as my Palm Zire, and then when he knows, to make a record.

Either his claim that he knew is accurate, and his memory of having known at the time is accurate., in which case your suggestion that he doesn't know must be false. Why this follows is left as an exercize for the reader.

Or else his claim that he knew is inaccurate, in which case, why should anyone care anyway?

 

[T'ai Chi]

You mean it appears to be the same as random chance but we forget the failures and remember the successes?

I have that kind of ESP too!

So... no one has answered my question yet.

How do you test it when you don't even know if or when it will happen, and when it does you can't control it?

 

[T'ai Chi]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: My "ESP" experiences

He said that these were unique in that he knew, that is, had a feeling of certain knowledge, when he had the experiences. It would be quite simple for him to make sure that he is always in range of a record-keeping device, such as my Palm Zire, and then when he knows, to make a record.

I don't think he knows if or when these events will happen again.

But anyway, say he does make a record during or right after said events happen. A skeptic could simply say that since that is not a controlled experiment, the record is worthless as far as evidence is concerned.

Perhaps he should have a video recorder on at all times.

 

[Darwin'sGoat]

TRUE STORY.

I started reading this post moments after I started watching "The Wizard of Oz" on TV tonight (on WB) AND my girlfriend is playing the Wheel of Fortune on her computer and got "L. Frank Baum" as one of her puzzles.

Coincidence is just coincidence. *shrug*

 

[DangerousBeliefs]

So... no one has answered my question yet.

How do you test it when you don't even know if or when it will happen, and when it does you can't control it?

Like I said... this is exactly the way ESP appears to work. It's a combination of selective thinking and confirmation bias .

Once a person puts the ESP to a quantitive, measurable test... well then the ESP isn't predictable or they can't control when and where it happens.

Or as Aerosmith puts it... "It's the same old song and dance, my friend!"

The one thing that absolutely disproves the powers of ESP in my mind is gambling. Even a slight edge of a Psi-user would make them rich beyond their wildest dreams.... and yet Casinos still have enough money to pay the electricity bills. So either ESP is bunk or its effect is so small as to be insignificant.

 

[thaiboxerken]

How do you test it when you don't even know if or when it will happen, and when it does you can't control it?

The premise that it is random and can't be controlled has rendered the claim unfalsifiable, and it cannot be tested. Because the claim is unfalifiable, it's not worth entertaining seriously.

 

[Stereolab]

Yes, we will never be able to convince you because for whatever reason, you need these events to be paranormal. The only real question left is, why it is you need these things to be paranormal?

I figured that all this was coming.

If I needed these events to be paranormal, I wouldn't have come to this forum and posted about them to an obviously skeptical audience.

I don't need my events to be anything. I just don't really accept any of the possible scientific explanations that I've thought of, or that anyone here has presented. Sorry.

Some of you have become so smug in your skepticism that you'll automatically attack the credibility, intelligence, and/or rationality of anyone that has a question about something. What was it that I said, exactly, that made you think I need to have experienced paranormal events?

Or are you just blindly jumping to conclusions?

At least the first people that responded to me were nice.

 

[Stereolab]

The one thing that absolutely disproves the powers of ESP in my mind is gambling. Even a slight edge of a Psi-user would make them rich beyond their wildest dreams.... and yet Casinos still have enough money to pay the electricity bills. So either ESP is bunk or its effect is so small as to be insignificant.

I should note that I consistently win betting on NFL football. I have doubled my money two seasons in a row.

I have never suspected, not once, that my success has had anything to do with anything paranormal.

 

[DangerousBeliefs]

I should note that I consistently win betting on NFL football. I have doubled my money two seasons in a row.

I have never suspected, not once, that my success has had anything to do with anything paranormal.

So does my father-in-law.... and he doesn't claim to have ESP... he's just really good at picking odds over a season.

Try something truly random and get back to us....

For claiming to be a skeptic and a reasonably intelligent person, you certainly have a lot to learn about probability and biased thinking.

I will admit that my posts are coming across as direct even possibly rude, but this is all very much Skeptic 101 stuff.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You appear be making an extraordinary claim and justifying it with the feeblist of evidence... on a skeptics forum. What kind of response are you expecting?

 

[Stereolab]

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You appear be making an extraordinary claim and justifying it with the feeblist of evidence... on a skeptics forum. What kind of response are you expecting?

Well, that's the rub, isn't it? I have no extraordinary evidence, and never had a way to collect/present any. It's frustrating.

In case this makes my case just a little bit, as to how I don't just write off every coincidence as paranormal, here are some weird "coincidences" and explainable things that I've never considered anything special:

I was discussing Somerset, PA with someone around 8 AM on 9/11/01. About two hours later, Flight 93 was crashed into the ground in Somerset, killing everyone aboard. (But I had no suspicion that anything was going to occur.)

I am extremely good at guessing people's favorite colors. (But they're always just that, guesses.)

I got up and took a bath at three in the morning one night. I very rarely take baths, and that is the only time I've ever taken a bath at that hour. The next morning, I got the call that my mother had passed away at 3:25 AM.

All kind of weird...but not at all "ESP-like" like the original ones I posted. Because I had no idea something was going to happen, and had no desire to convince myself otherwise after the fact.

 

[renata]

I had a similar weird experience. A friend was doing online shopping for shirts on sale, and was upset because he kept clicking on shirts and they were out of his size. The website was designed so you saw pictures of shirt styles and only after clicking on the picture they would tell you what sizes they had left. They had dozens of styles, and he just could not find his size, and was cranky after continuing to click. I had a feeling. I scrolled down a few rows, to shirts he has not yet looked at, and stopped at a picture of a random shirt. I told him to try it, I had a feeling about it. He laughed, did not believe me. Clicked on it- there was one his size! He thought I cheated- I had not. We later went through every shirt on the website, this one was the only one his size available at the time. Flush with my success and with visions of dollars dancing in my head, I tried a week later, next time during sale- and could not replicate it, of course. Every time after that, I never did find the correct size just by looking at a style. There was usually 2-3 shirt styles with desired size among 40-50 shirt styles, and I never again guessed right. It was, of course, a coincidence, and I never thought otherwise. However, I should have stopped at the first and only trial, I would have had 100% success rate, and it could have made a great- explain this, damn skeptics story!

Unless....my friend had a need I tuned into, and that is how ESP works. The other times, it was merely experimentation for my own gain and curiosity, and my gift does not allow for that. Hmmm....

As to phone calls- I guessed that more times than I can count. My accuracy is higher now that I have caller ID, though.

 

[Brown]

I too had a similar strange experience. I was listening to a song on the radio that I was quite sure I'd never heard before, and suddenly I found myself saying the next line of the song before it was sung! The line was not a logical extension or a rhyme of what had already been sung, and yet I KNEW it, word for word.

The experience was spooky as hell, but easily explainable. I had heard the song on a previous occasion, but forgot that I had heard it. After all, the song was aired on an "oldies" station, so there was plenty of opportunity for me to have heard the song previously.

 

[epepke]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: My "ESP" experiences

I don't think he knows if or when these events will happen again.

But anyway, say he does make a record during or right after said events happen.[/b]

Actually, he'd need to make a record, say, after the time he heard wossname say "Place" and before the time that "The Land of Oz" is revealed.

A skeptic could simply say that since that is not a controlled experiment, the record is worthless as far as evidence is concerned.

Now, this is just a faux polite way of saying that skeptics are just dogmatists who will not accept anything ever.

But in any event, you completely miss my point. What I'm suggesting for him to do is primarily a way for him to ensure the veracity of what he thinks to himself. No third parties or other "skeptics" involved.

I've had many, many experiences that are just like what he describes, including the feeling of knowledge. I'd like to think of myself as a precog. But I am not willing to do that until I've managed to produce some information outside of my brain to confirm it. I'll keep trying, though.

 

[DangerousBeliefs]

Well, that's the rub, isn't it? I have no extraordinary evidence, and never had a way to collect/present any. It's frustrating.

In case this makes my case just a little bit, as to how I don't just write off every coincidence as paranormal, here are some weird "coincidences" and explainable things that I've never considered anything special:

I was discussing Somerset, PA with someone around 8 AM on 9/11/01. About two hours later, Flight 93 was crashed into the ground in Somerset, killing everyone aboard. (But I had no suspicion that anything was going to occur.)

I am extremely good at guessing people's favorite colors. (But they're always just that, guesses.)

I got up and took a bath at three in the morning one night. I very rarely take baths, and that is the only time I've ever taken a bath at that hour. The next morning, I got the call that my mother had passed away at 3:25 AM.

All kind of weird...but not at all "ESP-like" like the original ones I posted. Because I had no idea something was going to happen, and had no desire to convince myself otherwise after the fact.

Sounds like classic "remember the hits, forget the misses".

You were talking to someone about Somerset, PA? But then, you didn't have an ESP moment, you had selective validation. If nothing would have happened, you wouldn't have put significance to this event. I'm sure you've had hundreds of thousands that you've forgotten because they didn't "hit".

My favorite color is... gasp.... BLUE. For most people, their favorite color is either blue or red.

So far, all your postings about your amazing ability are easily attributable to well-known human conditions... selective thinking, retroactive clairvoyance, self-deception, and wishful thinking.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say you are definitely not a skeptic. You are a believer. And nothing anyone posts will change your mind that you have a true psychic power.

But instead of pointless discussion on this, why not test your powers using logical, controlled conditions?

Surely an MBA can come up with a reasonable controlled situation... something more statistically meaningful than "pick my favorite color".

Or better yet, ask some skeptics to come up with a test (re: my guess the card idea).

I think you'll find when you try to look at your powers objectively, that they just simply disappear. If they don't consider taking Randi's challenge and win a million dollars!

 

[Darwin'sGoat]

So far, all your postings about your amazing ability are easily attributable to well-known human conditions... selective thinking, retroactive clairvoyance, self-deception, and wishful thinking.

Calm down there Tex. You're attacking him for things he's not saying. That last post was full of coincidences he was NOT attributing to anything supernatural.

So far he's been playing nice and not flaming about what he does and does not believe. Let's try to respond in fashion.

 

[DangerousBeliefs]

Calm down there Tex. You're attacking him for things he's not saying. That last post was full of coincidences he was NOT attributing to anything supernatural.

So far he's been playing nice and not flaming about what he does and does not believe. Let's try to respond in fashion.

I am NOT attacking him. I am attacking his claim... or at least trying to get him to look at it with a skeptical eye.

If I was attacking his claim, I'd call him a nut case that needs to lay off the crack pipe.

Seriously, claim away.... but how about testing your claim than posting about the test?

 

[Darwin'sGoat]

My favorite color is... gasp.... BLUE.

Surely an MBA can come up with a reasonable controlled situation... something more statistically meaningful than "pick my favorite color".

Yeah, they didn't sound like insults or anything.

Regardless you were attacking claims he didn't make because you misread his post.

 

[DangerousBeliefs]

Yeah, they didn't sound like insults or anything.

Regardless you were attacking claims he didn't make because you misread his post.

No, I'm trying to show how easy it is to justify events. How about testing your abilities?

 

[Darwin'sGoat]

You've got him quoted in your own post:

"In case this makes my case just a little bit, as to how I don't just write off every coincidence as paranormal, here are some weird "coincidences" and explainable things that I've never considered anything special"

Did he edit your post too?