Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Evidence?

---

I'm more familiar with the vicissitudes of military procurement. Say the government wants a new tank. They want it to weigh under a certain tonnage, and have a top speed of so much. The contractor delivers a prototype that meets these requirements. Then, between prototype and production, the tank gets loaded with upgrades and additional features. Its weight goes up, its top speed goes down. Nobody pulled any numbers out of their ass. Everyone understood that the ideal tank was a starting point, and that the production model wouldn't match the ideal specs. A lot of times, the ideal specs are there just to set a target for the production model.

Or look at the Have Blue stealth prototype. Ridiculously stealthy shape. Almost completely unflyable shape. So the production F-117 traded away some stealth for a (marginally) more flyable shape. Did Lockheed pull the initial stealth numbers out of its ass? Did they scam the taxpayer, when their production model didn't live up to the promise of the prototype?

Funny how when Apple announce a new iPhone with 256Gb and 10Mp camera and a price of X$, they don't launch it 5 years later with 128Gb, 8Mp and a cost of 1.7X$. It's almost as if they know what they are doing.

Odd that its always Musk that overpromises isn't it? When was the last time another vehicle manufacture did the same?

Of course he's pulling it out of his arse. Its what he ALWAYS DOES, in absolutely EVERYTHING HE DOES. He always overpromises, ********s and straight up lies.

Why would you even consider giving him the benefit of the doubt?

He's a ******** artist.

 

[theprestige]

Funny how when Apple announce a new iPhone with 256Gb and 10Mp camera and a price of X$, they don't launch it 5 years later with 128Gb, 8Mp and a cost of 1.7X$. It's almost as if they know what they are doing.

Odd that its always Musk that overpromises isn't it? When was the last time another vehicle manufacture did the same?

Of course he's pulling it out of his arse. Its what he ALWAYS DOES, in absolutely EVERYTHING HE DOES. He always overpromises, ********s and straight up lies.

Why would you even consider giving him the benefit of the doubt?

He's a ******** artist.

So Lockheed doesn't know what it's doing?

 

[lobosrul5]

So Lockheed doesn't know what it's doing?

Lockheed deals with ever changing, extremely complex, requirements and locks in a cost+ federal contract. They know what they are doing.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

So Lockheed doesn't know what it's doing?

Does Lockheed work in the automotive industry, where public announcements and unveiling events are expected to be delivered on? Or do they work in a completely different business area where everyone understands the rules that you explained, and that prototyping is not the finished product, and that the finished product WILL rely on changes imposed during the building phase because of changing government requirements?

Also, most importantly, I imagine Lockheed are making genuinely new things.
Musk isn't. He is building a glorified milk float that has been on UK streets since the 1930s.

Ask yourself why Nissan or BMW or Ford or Kia or Mazda or Saab or Honda fail to consistently overpromise and underdeliver on their vehicles. Is it possibly because they actually get their ducks in a row BEFORE they shoot their mouths of and pull numbers out of their arses?

If Musk could rein himself in there would be no issue. But he can't. Because he's a ******** artist.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

A few pages back I expressed my concerns about Tesla’s direction. The stock had fallen to around $168 from its all time high of $409.97 back in November 2021, and I mentioned I was planning to sell a portion of my holdings if and when it hit $160.

Well, it didn’t quite get there, and the stock has been on a bit of a tear the last couple of days, so far today up around $19 to $229. So I guess the overall outlook for Tesla in the eyes of shareholders is not as bleak as I might have figured.

 

[jeremyp]

Evidence?

Obviously I have no evidence that the numbers were literally pulled out of Musk's arse. It's a colourful way of saying they were made up and Musk was the person on stage saying them as if they weren't fiction.

I'm more familiar with the vicissitudes of military procurement.

Why do you think military procurement is remotely relevant to new car development?

Say the government [snipped for lack of relevance]

This is Musk's MO. Whenever he is on stage announcing a new thing, there are always things said that are not true. Maybe Musk believed them at the time but sometimes he had to know he is not telling the truth.

 

[jeremyp]

So Lockheed doesn't know what it's doing?

Why do you think somebody else also ********ting about their new product means it is OK for Elon Musk to do it?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Boeing doesn't.

 

[theprestige]

Why do you think somebody else also ********ting about their new product means it is OK for Elon Musk to do it?

My thesis is that prototype specs being different from production specs doesn't constitute lying about the product. My exhibit A is the stealth fighter. Lockheed's Have Blue prototype had better stealth specs than Lockheed's F-117 Nighthawk production model. Was Lockheed lying? Did they not know what they were doing?

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

My thesis is that prototype specs being different from production specs doesn't constitute lying about the product. My exhibit A is the stealth fighter. Lockheed's Have Blue prototype had better stealth specs than Lockheed's F-117 Nighthawk production model. Was Lockheed lying? Did they not know what they were doing?

Its almost as if you are not reading people's replies that explicitly deal with your points.

Why is it only Musk that has this problem, and not all the other car companies? That is the actual scale on which we should be measuring the behaviour, not an irrelevant analogy from the government-procurement military/aerospace industry which has completely different expectations and ways of working, and work on actual new technology.

If it wasn't a Musk problem, why does only Musk do it in the automotive industry?

 

[GlennB]

Its almost as if you are not reading people's replies that explicitly deal with your points.
Why is it only Musk that has this problem, and not all the other car companies? That is the actual scale on which we should be measuring the behaviour, not an irrelevant analogy from the government-procurement military/aerospace industry which has completely different expectations and ways of working, and work on actual new technology.

If it wasn't a Musk problem, why does only Musk do it in the automotive industry?

Well, that wouldn't be much fun if your main aim is to be disputatious, would it?

 

[a_unique_person]

My thesis is that prototype specs being different from production specs doesn't constitute lying about the product. My exhibit A is the stealth fighter. Lockheed's Have Blue prototype had better stealth specs than Lockheed's F-117 Nighthawk production model. Was Lockheed lying? Did they not know what they were doing?

The political shenanigans of defence procurement are mind boggling for aircraft.

You have the politicians at the top at East with each other. Then you have the different services at war with each other. Then the manufacturers ears. Finall the wars between the people who makes the things and the people who want to make as much money a they can because capitalism.

This is for bleeding edge technology that costs a fortune to develop and may not even work. Then there are the continually changing specs.

SpaceX has had the luxury of being removed from much of that. It's a private company and people come to our for the products it produces.

It only produces rockets and it has been free from most of the political intrigue up to now. The moon shot could get messy.

 

[jeremyp]

My thesis is that prototype specs being different from production specs doesn't constitute lying about the product.

This was a public announcement about a new product that people could buy - or at least put a deposit down on. It's not a ******* stealth fighter, it's a car.

Musk has form on this. Practically every product launch involving him saying things that are simply not true. And if they can't get basic things like the price or availability date right, there's something clearly wrong.

Do you think the prototype they showed at the Cybertruck launch in 2019 (available 2022 allegedly) had the claimed range? I don't. Where did they get the number? How did they get it so wrong?

My exhibit A...

is still irrelevant.

 

[jeremyp]

Latest quarterly figures for Tesla

• 14.4% decrease in production year on year
• 4.8% decline in sales year on year
• Profit margin at 5.5% (half the industry average)

The good news is that Tesla sold more cars than it made. That means inventory will go down.

 

[Checkmite]

My exhibit A is the stealth fighter. Lockheed's Have Blue prototype had better stealth specs than Lockheed's F-117 Nighthawk production model. Was Lockheed lying? Did they not know what they were doing?

No; if, on the other hand, Lockheed's Have Blue prototype itself did not actually meet the specs that Lockheed claimed it did at the time, that would be Lockheed lying.

And it's Elon Musk lying. I don't think the Cybertruck prototype he presented on stage had the capabilities that he claimed it did. Hell, the one single capability that they tried to demonstrate on stage (the unbreakable windows) failed dramatically. Twice.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

And it's Elon Musk lying. I don't think the Cybertruck prototype he presented on stage had the capabilities that he claimed it did. Hell, the one single capability that they tried to demonstrate on stage (the unbreakable windows) failed dramatically. Twice.

Evidence?

Other people have tested Cybertruck windows with various sized steel balls, and it took a lot to damage (not 'break') them. Do you think Musk would deliberately lie about the glass being shatter-resistant and then immediately proceed to prove that he is lying in front of a live audience? No, that doesn't make sense. Clearly Musk believed that he was telling the truth.

Furthermore, what is not generally reported is that during the demonstration they first dropped steel balls onto regular and 'armored' glass from various heights. The regular glass broke, while Tesla's glass didn't (the ball just bounced off it).

I've had the driver's side window of my car broken twice by thieves, and in both cases it shattered into a million tiny fragments (which took ages to clean out of the air vents etc.). If my car had Cybertruck glass that wouldn't happened, and the thieves would not have gained entry to the vehicle. I know which type of glass I would prefer in a truck.

If you are going to accuse Musk of lying then don't use this case as an example, because it isn't. Aw heck, who am I kidding? Of course you will continue to use it - because the truth doesn't matter to you - it's all about pushing the narrative.

 

[dirtywick]

sometimes he lies, sometimes he’s an idiot. thanks for clearing that up buddy

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

If he was capable of creating a prototype that matched his ******** spec claims, and he knew what he was doing, then he would be capable of actually producing it. Not produce something half as good 5 years later.

Its not remotely like military procurement, where the specs can change due to changing requirements forced by external agencies. No one is forcing Musk to change specs mid stream, he controls the specs.

He's not generating something completely new like a stealth fighter. He's producing a variation of what he has already produced. A variation of something that has been around since the 1890s. An electric vehicle.

He was just incapable of delivering on what he promised, because he couldn't actually do what he promised in the first place.

Apple don't do this. Samsung don't this. Ford don't do this. BMW don't do this. Only Musk does this.

Because he is a bovine excrement artist.

 

[jeremyp]

Evidence?

Other people have tested Cybertruck windows with various sized steel balls, and it took a lot to damage (not 'break') them. Do you think Musk would deliberately lie about the glass being shatter-resistant and then immediately proceed to prove that he is lying in front of a live audience? No, that doesn't make sense. Clearly Musk believed that he was telling the truth.

That test actually meant nothing more than embarrassment. There are theories flying around that the glass was weakened during rehearsals in some way.

The real problem is the other untruths that Musk tells like how much the Cybertruck is going to cost and how far it will go. These are much more important than "Can its windows stop a steel ball?"

Musk has a history of presenting falsehoods at his product launches. At this point, if he told me his next car will have four wheels, I'd want to count them for myself.

 

[dirtywick]

i mean, musk has a history of straight up scamming people. he's manipulated the stock market and ran a crypto pump and dump scheme. he's pushed founders out of his company and rewritten it's history. even lying about product specs and making up production timelines is small potatoes compared to some of his whoppers. the window bit was just an embarassment, which he publicly humiliates himself pretty often anyway.

it's fool behavior and rightfully it's called out. and so is trying to personalize the criticism. no, i'm not part of some conspiracy to control a narrative or whatever the **** you're talking about. he's a ****** person