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Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

novaphile said:
After the show, everyone summons their self-driving cars. Since the cars cannot occupy the same physical space at the same time, a city-wide grid lock occurs as all the cars try to drive themselves from their parking place back to the venue at exactly the same time. Even for the ones that actually make it to the venue, the owners can't get to their cars, because of the mass of people all expecting their cars at the same time, and the cars can't leave because of the grid-lock.
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Not with phalanxing. When all the cars are communicating with each other and coordinating their routes and movements, gridlock can't happen.
 
novaphile said:
I've talked about this before, in the concert scenario.

How it currently works:

The people who take their own car, park somewhere near the venue, and after the show disperse on foot, and walk back to their cars, which are parked at various parking garages near the venue. From those diverse locations, the owners and their cars head home.

What will happen with self-driving cars:

After the show, everyone summons their self-driving cars. Since the cars cannot occupy the same physical space at the same time, a city-wide grid lock occurs as all the cars try to drive themselves from their parking place back to the venue at exactly the same time. Even for the ones that actually make it to the venue, the owners can't get to their cars, because of the mass of people all expecting their cars at the same time, and the cars can't leave because of the grid-lock.

We've already seen the chaos that occurs when three or four self-driving vehicles meet at an intersection, or car park.

Now imagine 10,000 vehicles all trying to get to the front door of an entertainment centre.
(Adelaide Entertainment Centre seats 10k people, I'm sure American equivalents would be larger.)


Note that all traffic modelling currently shows that traffic problems are increased by self-driving cars.

Why?

Because currently trips look like this:

1. Drive somewhere and park. (1 trip)
2. Go back to car and leave. (1 trip)

Self-driving trips look like this:

1. Drive somewhere and get out (1 trip)
2. Car drives somewhere else to get free parking (1 trip)
3. Car drives back (1 trip)
4. Get in car and leave (1 trip)

This means double the number of vehicles on the road during peak hours, because every vehicle is making an extra trip each way.

Note that some people who use taxis may start using driverless taxis, that doesn't change the number of vehicle trips, it's only the people that own and use their own cars that cause the increased number of vehicles on the road, because of the extra trips.

Note that driving away to some free parking location is part of the 'sell' for self-driving cars.
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Just as well that better quality technology and streaming will soon make all such big, in city, venues redundant then.

I'm not entirely joking. Cinemas are already losing their audiences to home streaming, and I've seen London ballet and theatre performances live by walking to my local town hall.
 
Pixel42 said:
Just as well that better quality technology and streaming will soon make all such big, in city, venues redundant then.

I'm not entirely joking. Cinemas are already losing their audiences to home streaming, and I've seen London ballet and theatre performances live by walking to my local town hall.
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Pedantic nit pick, but no, you haven't. You've seen a simulcast of an event. Live means being in the same physical space as the performers, and for many events, that's part of the experience, plus being in a crowd of like minded people.
 
Pedantic nitpick accepted. I guess it depends whether that part of the experience is worth the hassle of actually getting to and from that physical space. I went up to London to see performances when I was younger, but I can't imagine anything that would tempt me to do so now if the option to see a simulcast locally or at home was available.

Maybe we'll end up with performance venues outside cities but with good transport links and parking, so those who really need to be present in person can still be so, whilst the rest of us watch at home or in smaller local venues. I do think the days of big city centre venues are numbered, though.

ETA: or maybe we'll all end up sitting in our armchairs with our 3D headsets on whilst the robots do all the physical work, and rarely venture out at all.
 
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acbytesla said:
I'm not sure I would call Musk a con man. Trump is a con man. Musk is more akin to a carnival barker. The corporation stock model of capitalism makes the illusion of success more important than actual success. He sells an illusion. Tesla is a car company with an insane amount of money created by the story and illusion that somehow down the road it will be more than a car company. It's a successful electric car company. I've never said differently. But the question is why and how.it is.
First is its charging network. Undoubtedly the most important reason not only why Tesla is dominant but why rhe EV industry will continue to grow. The second is thar they have slowed the creation of competition in the US. The only real EV market where they are truly dominant anymore.
The lack of Chinese competition in North America. Without which Tesla is still the best EV option. Maybe I'm wrong, but I believe Tesla will collapse. It has more to do with just how long they can convince investors that profit and earnings don't matter. They have been very good at this.
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That's 99% of what a con is.
 
Darat said:
Starship isn't a finished design yet, how can you make meaningful predictions yet? It's my understanding that it is years behind Musk's previous predictions, and I believe it's payload capacity is around 50 tons not his originally predicted 100 tons?

And we've seen even with the far, far easier to test and manufacture Cyber truck his predictions can be very wrong.
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It's predicted payload is sometuing like 15 tons at the moment ( he keeps revising down), actual payload is more like the weight of one banana.
 
arthwollipot said:
Not with phalanxing. When all the cars are communicating with each other and coordinating their routes and movements, gridlock can't happen.
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Yes it can, there are limitations to what we can model mathematically; especially in real-time with constant changing conditions, and that is what is required to control traffic to the degree required to get a particular car to a particular person at a particular position at a particular time. Usually we can use models that use statistics that give us "good enough answers" for the resolution we need, for example gas flowing through a system of pipes and valves, we can't use such models when we need to know where each specific molecule of gas is in a given space. And it is that level of resolution we need when trying to get your car back to you where you are now.

It may be that we can come up with "automated" systems that have fewer gridlocks and logjams a day when any car will do i.e. we only have access to robotaxis as then any car getting to your position will do. As long as you are willing to wait of course. Perhaps someone could come up with a system in which a larger passenger capacity vehicle goes along a specific route at set intervals? (And then you still have the issues of delivery vans and other commercial vehicles, your plumber does need their van to be the one that gets to them, you need your Amazon delivery not an Amazon delivery.)

It’s why the leaders in car autonomous systems such as Mercedes concentrate on individual cars, it’s the only way it can be feasibly done, each vehicle making their own decisions.
 
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