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Is Manafort's conviction proof of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia? No. But it is an indicator, given that it's a man who risked life imprisonment to cover up one channel of communication between the Trump campaign and Russia and that's something that the judge - who has seen lots of evidence that is not yet public - says is "at the undisputed core of" the investigation.

Similarly, there's no proof that Trump has laundered money for Russia. But looking at what is known of his financial history turns up evidence for which the best explanation is that he was laundering money for Russia.

These things are not smocking guns. But all the evidence there is is inculpatory, and none of it is exculpatory. To me the balance of probability points quite firmly in one direction.

What do you base any of this on? Take the money laundering theory. You are saying that it is the best explanation from the financial history. For it to be the best explanation, you would need something like formal observation of similar histories and rate of laundering.
 
Trump is doing the finest impersonation of a guilty man I've ever seen. I've never witnessed an innocent person doing so many things that scream "I'm guilty" as Trump. An innocent person would welcome an investigation knowing he has nothing to hide. An innocent person would want the integrity of the investigation to be above reproach so that, when found faultless, it cannot be questioned by critics. Instead, we have Trump who has attacked the investigation and those who involved in it from day one as a "witch hunt". No, he's scared ****less of what they are finding. It may not be direct conspiracy with Russia by Trump, but he is scared to death of what they will find or have found. Only those suffering from severe HISS (Head in Sand Syndrome) cannot, or more accurately, refuse to see it.

I don't think that in abstract someone needs to be guilty to fear investigation, if they have reason to believe the investigators to be dishonest and out to get them.

After all, the victims of the original witch hunts in Salem were innocent but had plenty to fear from investigators. You could say the same thing about people being investigated in Soviet Russia or during McCarthy here.

So to really capture how guilty Trump appears we do also need to note how unfounded, inconsistent and dishonest his attempted smearing of the Mueller investigation is.
 
Mueller’s office says they have Roger Stone’s communications with Wikileaks and Guccifer.

Roger Stone says he had no communications with Wikileaks or Guccifer.
 
I don't think that in abstract someone needs to be guilty to fear investigation, if they have reason to believe the investigators to be dishonest and out to get them.
After all, the victims of the original witch hunts in Salem were innocent but had plenty to fear from investigators. You could say the same thing about people being investigated in Soviet Russia or during McCarthy here.

So to really capture how guilty Trump appears we do also need to note how unfounded, inconsistent and dishonest his attempted smearing of the Mueller investigation is.

What reason does anyone have to believe this?

Evidently, those who DO believe this have quite a double standard of what constitutes evidence when applied to this vs when applied to Trump/Russia.
 
Well played. But he has a point. Process crimes aren't proxies for the crimes actually being investigated.

You're trying to traduce other offenses into proof of the offense you're alleging.

Just so we're clear and starting from the same point, "process crimes" is defined as "anything a Republican gets convicted of," right? Because maybe it's just me, but stuff you could serve decades behind bars if you're convicted of it sure doesn't smell like "process crimes."
 
After all, the victims of the original witch hunts in Salem were innocent but had plenty to fear from investigators.
Are we still in 1692?

You could say the same thing about people being investigated in Soviet Russia or during McCarthy here.
or 1950?

So to really capture how guilty Trump appears we do also need to note how unfounded, inconsistent and dishonest his attempted smearing of the Mueller investigation is.
No, we just have look at how the FBI has been conducting itself recently. Can you think of a recent case where the FBI avoided bowing to pressure for a 'witch hunt' and the hostile IG admitted that they had conducted an even-handed investigation?

4 key takeaways from the inspector general’s report on the FBI, Comey, and Clinton emails
1) The investigative decisions in the Clinton email case seemed to be made on the merits, the IG finds

When it comes to the overall handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation, Horowitz retraced its progress from its opening in July 2015 to its seeming conclusion in the summer of 2016, to try to assess whether the investigative team’s decisions were skewed by political bias — and on the whole, he found little evidence that they were.

The context is that there’s been much criticism from the right because investigators often used voluntary processes to get evidence, that they granted certain witnesses immunity, that their interview of Clinton herself was only for show, and that Clinton wasn’t charged for political reasons.

Yet in all these cases, Horowitz concludes that investigators’ choices were “not unreasonable.” He says these choices on evidence “were supported by Department and FBI policy and practice,” and that the immunity agreements were given after considering department policy. He also writes that FBI agents “asked Clinton what appeared to be appropriate questions and made use of documents to challenge Clinton’s testimony and assess her credibility during her interview.”

And when it comes to the decision not to prosecute Clinton or anyone else in the case, Horowitz writes that he found this was based on prosecutors’ “assessment of the facts, the law, and past Department practice in cases involving these statutes.” He adds, “We did not identify evidence of bias or improper considerations.”
 
So to really capture how guilty Trump appears we do also need to note how unfounded, inconsistent and dishonest his attempted smearing of the Mueller investigation is.
Indeed, and we should remember that this pissant smearing of Mueller isn't the best that Trump can come up with, it's the best that he can buy from peoiple who do this for a living.
 
What reason does anyone have to believe this?

There's lots of corrupt and nasty people out there. Some of whom are indeed investigators, law enforcement, and so on. That fact is pretty much indisputable, quite honestly. To go into why that's pointedly relevant here, though... I have friends and family who strongly favor Republicans. Being the kind of person I am, I give their claims a fair hearing, which means that I've also seen a fair chunk of where they're coming from and what is influencing them. One of the very common themes that I've noticed in right-wing propaganda (I would dare to say that it's notably more prevalent there than in current left wing propaganda) is that they seize upon frequently banally trivial truths (which are true!) and wildly overemphasize them to get to an easy answer rather than actually addressing the totality of the facts or making any attempt to apply critical thinking or quality control. Hence how, across the country, we had Republicans getting up in arms about how Democrats were stealing elections and backing up their claims with evidence that... votes were being counted and reported in proper fashion. And that riled up a lot more of them. Some of the better of them pointed to actual "problems" that occurred at places like Broward County and claimed, without reasonable evidence, that those problems equated to voter fraud and attempts to steal the election, even after the Republican person overseeing the elections in Florida pointedly said that there was no evidence of foul play there, despite the fact that there were indeed problems occuring (and might I add that the problems that occurred at Broward were very much compounded by the alarmism in play that led to bad behavior by right wingers).

Evidently, those who DO believe this have quite a double standard of what constitutes evidence when applied to this vs when applied to Trump/Russia.

I'm somewhat at the point where I question whether "double standard" is even particularly appropriate. That would imply that actual standards were being applied in the first place.
 
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There's lots of corrupt and nasty people out there. Some of whom are indeed investigators, law enforcement, and so on. That fact is pretty much indisputable, quite honestly. To go into why that's pointedly relevant here, though... I have friends and family who strongly favor Republicans. Being the kind of person I am, I give their claims a fair hearing, which means that I've also seen a fair chunk of where they're coming from and what is influencing them. One of the very common themes that I've noticed in right-wing propaganda (I would dare to say that it's notably more prevalent there than in current left wing propaganda) is that they seize upon frequently banally trivial truths (which are true!) and wildly overemphasize them to get to an easy answer rather than actually addressing the totality of the facts or making any attempt to apply critical thinking or quality control. Hence how, across the country, we had Republicans getting up in arms about how Democrats were stealing elections and backing up their claims with evidence that... votes were being counted and reported in proper fashion. And that riled up a lot more of them. Some of the better of them pointed to actual "problems" that occurred at places like Broward County and claimed, without reasonable evidence, that those problems equated to voter fraud and attempts to steal the election, even after the Republican person overseeing the elections in Florida pointedly said that there was no evidence of foul play there, despite the fact that there were indeed problems occuring (and might I add that the problems that occurred at Broward were very much compounded by the alarmism in play that led to bad behavior by right wingers)....
Any chance you understand the concept of paragraphs? Walls of text are not worth the time it takes to read them.
 
I don't think that in abstract someone needs to be guilty to fear investigation, if they have reason to believe the investigators to be dishonest and out to get them.

After all, the victims of the original witch hunts in Salem were innocent but had plenty to fear from investigators. You could say the same thing about people being investigated in Soviet Russia or during McCarthy here.

So to really capture how guilty Trump appears we do also need to note how unfounded, inconsistent and dishonest his attempted smearing of the Mueller investigation is.

I agree, which is why I said "Instead, we have Trump who has attacked the investigation and those who involved in it from day one as a "witch hunt". He began his discrediting campaign from the very beginning. I don't think Trump is paranoid. I think he has every right to be afraid...of the truth.
 
Any chance you understand the concept of paragraphs? Walls of text are not worth the time it takes to read them.

Paragraphs? What are those? Are they tasty?

Short version, though -

There's lots of corrupt and nasty people out there. Some of whom are indeed investigators, law enforcement, and so on. That fact is pretty much indisputable, quite honestly. Given the quality of logic used far too often by those on the right, showing that it actually applies meaningfully in any particular case they they want to apply it to is entirely skipped when it comes to what they believe.

It's a trait of the average right-winger's arguments that I've seen rather consistently across many topics.
 
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More speculation on why Manafort just can't/won't stop lying.

The only two men who know what transpired between campaign chairman and candidate during the campaign are Manafort and Trump. Manafort was Trump’s cut-out to Putin’s intelligence operatives who were hacking the Democrats’ emails and releasing them through WikiLeaks. They obviously used the campaign polling data Manafort passed to Kilimnik in determining when to release information damaging to Hillary Clinton and her campaign chairman, John Podesta. Only Manafort knows what instructions Trump gave him when he was dealing with the Russians during the campaign, and so far, he is keeping this very, very big secret.
......
Trump will pay off Manafort for his silence with a pardon, and the Russians will pay him off with millions of dollars. That’s why Paul Manafort is sitting in jail in Washington D.C. lying to Robert Mueller’s investigators. He’s always been a dirty-trickster and a fixer, and just because he’s wearing an orange jumpsuit and going gray in the absence of his bottle of black hair dye doesn’t mean he’s stopped trickstering and fixing. Look out, Bridgehampton and Manhattan! Paul Manafort has a big secret and even bigger plans to use it to make his comeback!
https://www.salon.com/2019/02/16/ma...ye-and-hell-walk-with-oodles-of-russian-cash/
 
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