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!!! Analogy Warning !!!

Bob is heroin dealer, who is attacked by an armed robber while walking down a dark alley. Bob shoots and kills the robber. The cops have been following Bob because they suspect he's a heroin dealer, and they witness the shooting. The cops snag Bob up after he kills the robber, and take him in for interrogation. During the interrogation, they tell him that he's under suspicion for being a heroin dealer, which carries a sentence of 25 years... but that murder only carries a sentence of 5 years. Bob isn't completely sure how much info the cops have on him with respect to heroin dealing. The cops offer him a deal: plead guilty to murder and flip on his supplier, and they'll drop the case against him related to heroin dealing. The cops tell Bob that if he doesn't take the plea bargain, they will prosecute for heroin dealing.

Bob didn't commit murder - it was clearly self-defense. But he is willing to plead guilty to murder because it carries a shorter sentence than heroin dealing does.

The action can be cast as a crime, and can be plead to as a crime, without actually having been a crime.

Analogy fail.

Firstly, Murder is clearly a worse crime than Dealing, but let's ignore that for the moment.

Prosecutors simply don't offer a charge that they can't actually prove, and there is a very good reason for that.

Let's take your wacky example. Until Bob is found guilty by the Judge, he can back out of the plea at any time. See he comes before the Judge who says, "Bob you have been charged with Murder and I understand a plea deal is on the table, correct? Good, then how do you plead?" And at this point Bob can say "I've changed my mind and decided to plead not guilty" At that point, the Prosecutor is stuck in the position of having to prove the charge of Murder, and if they are for a crime the Defendant didn't commit, then the Defendant walks.

Prosecutors don't take this chance, so they use a lessor charge, but one the defendant is still guilty of, such as an assault charge instead of a grievous bodily harm or an attempted murder. In the case you gave they might go with possession of a class A substance instead of possession with intent to deal, and perhaps add some related gun charges, perhaps carrying an illegal firearm, or unlawful possession of firearm.

The Plea Deal lessens the punishment, perhaps even dropping a felony to a misdemeanor, but it's always something that the Defendant provably did so as to stop them ditching the deal and getting a Not Guilty verdict.
 
You don’t understand why I provided that link, do you?

Yes, I do: You're pursuing the smokescreen argument that a judge accepting a guilty plea does not say anything about actual guilt. That's a trivial truth. In this case, however, we know what Cohen did, but you want to argue that he might have gotten off on a technicality. Go ahead, but statistics from the innocence projects about people who didn't actually commit the act they were accused of aren't relevant.
 
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No. It doesn’t work that way. Cohen’s guilty plea does nothing legally to establish Trump’s guilt. That must be established separately.

Guilt is a legal term. That is determined by jurors. So technically you are right. But Cohen's testimony goes a long way in implicating Trump in criminal acts. That along with testimony that comes form others such as David Pecker and documents and recordings etc will likely confirm it. Whether there is ever a moment where Trump is found guilty of criminal acts seems as unlikely as more than a priest or two being convicted in all these sexual assaults in Pennsylvania.
 
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Yes, I do: You're pursuing the smokescreen argument that a judge accepting a guilty plea does not say anything about actual guilt. That's a trivial truth. In this case, however, we know what Cohen did, but you want to argue that he might have gotten off on a technicality. Go ahead, but statistics from the innocence projects about people who didn't actually commit the act they were accused of aren't relevant.

Not only that, Judges don't have to accept plea deals. If they are unhappy that there is evidence of a crime it is more then likely that they'd step in and demand evidence before accepting any deal.
 
Not only that, Judges don't have to accept plea deals. If they are unhappy that there is evidence of a crime it is more then likely that they'd step in and demand evidence before accepting any deal.

Yes, and even if the case had gone to trial and a jury found him guilty, Zig could keep arguing that they shouldn't have because it wasn't really a crime; they just didn't understand the law as well as he. Whatever, but trying to claim that he might have been pressured into confessing to something he didn't do won't fly.
 
Yes, and even if the case had gone to trial and a jury found him guilty, Zig could keep arguing that they shouldn't have because it wasn't really a crime; they just didn't understand the law as well as he. Whatever, but trying to claim that he might have been pressured into confessing to something he didn't do won't fly.

Far from being pressured, he seemed to be almost eager to get in there and confess. My wife was like, "They must have something really big on him for him to be getting in and agreeing to this so fast."
 
Yes, and even if the case had gone to trial and a jury found him guilty, Zig could keep arguing that they shouldn't have because it wasn't really a crime; they just didn't understand the law as well as he. Whatever, but trying to claim that he might have been pressured into confessing to something he didn't do won't fly.

lol wut
 
It's kind of neat how Trump faces bogus charges in this regard, but you were more open-minded when it came to Edwards' being in legal jeopardy:

Maybe Trump's proven himself a strong leader. Maybe we've learned more about the law from politician payoffs. Learning. We needed to be wary of thin-skinned narcissists, but we can learn how to make peace with them. Character still matters.

Bonus arguments against Trump Edwards:

Zig said:
We now know, for example, that John Edwards is reckless. You may not care about his fidelity to his wife, but his willingness to take great risks for purely selfish and petty reasons should give anyone pause.
:sdl:

Similar words from all the Republicans should give people pause about what serious hypocrites and liars they are.

How can they live with themselves?
 
Gee,Trump really is trying to be like Nixon in every way possible....
Excerpt from Nixon's resignation speech.
To continue to fight through the months ahead for my personal vindication would almost totally absorb the time and attention of both the President and the Congress in a period when our entire focus should be on the great issues of peace abroad and prosperity without inflation at home.

So like Trump.
 
Do we need to review all the innocence project cases where they exonerated people who agreed they were guilty?
No need. You can just look at the vastly different circumstances in giving a false confession after hours of being manipulated by police interrogators with no lawyer present and Cohen coming to this decision with the consultation of an excellent attorney and Cohen's conscience.

You don't even need the facts and Cohen's taped conversation with Trump to see the difference.
 
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Do we need to review all the innocence project cases where they exonerated people who agreed they were guilty?

No need. You can just look at the vastly different circumstances in giving a false confession after hours of being manipulated by police interrogators with no lawyer present and Cohen coming to this decision with the consultation of an excellent attorney and Cohen's conscience.

You don't even need the facts and Cohen's taped conversation with Trump to see the difference.

Michael Cohen is a 50 year old attorney with decades of law experience. He was represented by a highly respected attorney. To compare this to Innocence Project exonerees that were falsely convicted by a coerced confession or uninformed plea deal is ridiculous.
 
<snip>

Perhaps, but your justification for believing in the likelyhood of such evidence, namely that the judge hasn't thrown out Cohen's guilty plea on that count, doesn't make sense to me. Judges aren't usually in the practice of taking on the role of defense counsel. If the defense pleads guilty, the judge is only going to reject that plea under extraordinary circumstances.

<snip>


And you don't think that pleading guilty to something that isn't a crime would be something a judge might consider to be "extraordinary circumstances"?

How does that work, anyway? The judge has to find them guilty of something, some actual criminal statute, to accept a plea of guilty, whether the defendant is in fact guilty or not.

If there was no crime to commit, just exactly what does the judge find the defendant guilty of?
 
You don't need to understand legal theory to know this. You can just look at what actually happens. And what actually happens is that people plead guilty to crimes they don't commit, and judges accept those pleas, all the time.

<snip>


Sure. Not certain how that is relevant.

How many examples can you offer of judges accepting guilty pleas for something that wasn't a crime?
 
<snip>

I mean, the whole hush-money thing is both campaign related (to avoid negative PR) and personal (it was a personal interaction from prior to his candidacy). Which makes this seem like there's no possible way for this to be done that doesn't leave Trump open to a claim of breaking a campaign law...


Sure there was. It could have been reported properly. Just because doing so would have been embarrassing is not a sufficient reason to try to evade the law.

He could also have not made the pay-off.

Yeah, that could have ended up embarrassing, too, but that's the situation he got himself into. There was no Catch-22. He just got himself in a bind with no way out that wasn't personally embarrassing to him. That isn't the law's fault.

even though if he weren't a candidate, none of it is at all illegal in any way.

Or have I missed something material in there? I confess I find the situation confusing.


Yes. you are missing the fact that if he wasn't a candidate and wasn't campaigning then there wouldn't be any campaign contributions to break any laws.
 
Some thinking out loud.

I just saw a clip of George Will saying the country decided not to remove Clinton from office for his "abominable" behavior because they determined that his crimes were not serious enough to overturn a presidential election. As far as the Cohen stuff is concerned, I'm inclined to say Trump's behavior similarly fails to meet that otherwise reasonable threshold (even if Trump funneled payments through his fake charity).

Could the Daniels/McDougal revelations themselves have turned the election? It's tempting to answer "no" and argue "everyone knew" Trump was a womanizer. Putting aside hindsight bias, the news would have made his cheating more concrete and less abstract. The Access Hollywood tape was "just locker room talk," whereas an affair with a pornstar, and a newborn at home, is pretty scuzzy. The bigger problem could have been, "What else has he done? What else do we not know?"

Trump's narrow victory complicates matters. Overturning an election is serious business, which is why Comey has said the American people should not count on Mueller to save them. Citizens can take matters into their own hands by voting. The argument see-saws the other way because elections derive their moral legitimacy from the will of the people, and we have an Electoral College that awarded the presidency to someone who won fewer votes. It's a stupid institution, but we have to abide by the results (and work to abolish it).

Trump apologists have recently taken to crediting broad powers to the president -- he cannot obstruct justice, he can pardon himself, he's not accountable to financial conflicts of interest; maybe we don't even like it, they could say, but that's how the Constitution works. And if we take that logic, then Congress can impeach and remove the president for just about any ol' reason -- because that's how it works. However, in addition to laws, we have norms and traditions (e.g., release your tax returns) which Trump has been subverting. Even with removing a president, the Constitution undermines popular will; understandably, it requires a super-majority of two-thirds, but that's two-thirds of the highly unrepresentative Senate. Some of these problems are ultimately rooted in a pre-democratic Constitution.

What if Trump won 70% of the vote? Would this Russian probe matter as much? MAGAns would probably say the Democrats are just out to get the president by any means available. Nixon trounced the Democrats in his re-election, yet he was threatened with removal. Corruption, as Biden might say, is a big ******' deal. For the point against, however, there was no recourse available for the people; Nixon was serving his second and final term, so Congress had to use its impeachment power.

I'd bet a lot of people feel the same way -- you can't deny Trump the presidency for a sex scandal, especially if you frame it as a campaign finance violation (and tack on conspiracy for good measure). Now, collaborating with Russia is another matter, and if Mueller can back it up, then I think that's something a large part of the country can get behind.
 
Some thinking out loud.

I just saw a clip of George Will saying the country decided not to remove Clinton from office for his "abominable" behavior because they determined that his crimes were not serious enough to overturn a presidential election. As far as the Cohen stuff is concerned, I'm inclined to say Trump's behavior similarly fails to meet that otherwise reasonable threshold (even if Trump funneled payments through his fake charity).

Could the Daniels/McDougal revelations themselves have turned the election? It's tempting to answer "no" and argue "everyone knew" Trump was a womanizer. Putting aside hindsight bias, the news would have made his cheating more concrete and less abstract. The Access Hollywood tape was "just locker room talk," whereas an affair with a pornstar, and a newborn at home, is pretty scuzzy. The bigger problem could have been, "What else has he done? What else do we not know?"

Trump's narrow victory complicates matters. Overturning an election is serious business, which is why Comey has said the American people should not count on Mueller to save them. Citizens can take matters into their own hands by voting. The argument see-saws the other way because elections derive their moral legitimacy from the will of the people, and we have an Electoral College that awarded the presidency to someone who won fewer votes. It's a stupid institution, but we have to abide by the results (and work to abolish it).

Trump apologists have recently taken to crediting broad powers to the president -- he cannot obstruct justice, he can pardon himself, he's not accountable to financial conflicts of interest; maybe we don't even like it, they could say, but that's how the Constitution works. And if we take that logic, then Congress can impeach and remove the president for just about any ol' reason -- because that's how it works. However, in addition to laws, we have norms and traditions (e.g., release your tax returns) which Trump has been subverting. Even with removing a president, the Constitution undermines popular will; understandably, it requires a super-majority of two-thirds, but that's two-thirds of the highly unrepresentative Senate. Some of these problems are ultimately rooted in a pre-democratic Constitution.

What if Trump won 70% of the vote? Would this Russian probe matter as much? MAGAns would probably say the Democrats are just out to get the president by any means available. Nixon trounced the Democrats in his re-election, yet he was threatened with removal. Corruption, as Biden might say, is a big ******' deal. For the point against, however, there was no recourse available for the people; Nixon was serving his second and final term, so Congress had to use its impeachment power.

I'd bet a lot of people feel the same way -- you can't deny Trump the presidency for a sex scandal, especially if you frame it as a campaign finance violation (and tack on conspiracy for good measure). Now, collaborating with Russia is another matter, and if Mueller can back it up, then I think that's something a large part of the country can get behind.

It's encouraging that shares on predictit.com that Trump won't even be the 2020 nominee have gone from 36¢ when I mentioned it a few days ago to 44¢ now -- dang, coulda already turned a profit if I bought then. I hope he is the candidate, rather than someone more electable, but that's still a tempting bet because I really think Republicans will eventually realize that, too.

I did, however, cash in on my 29¢ shares that the difference in the 538 generic Democrat/Republican polls would be 7 points or more by last night: it was 7.9. :D
 
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!!! Analogy Warning !!!

Bob is heroin dealer, who is attacked by an armed robber while walking down a dark alley. Bob shoots and kills the robber. The cops have been following Bob because they suspect he's a heroin dealer, and they witness the shooting. The cops snag Bob up after he kills the robber, and take him in for interrogation. During the interrogation, they tell him that he's under suspicion for being a heroin dealer, which carries a sentence of 25 years... but that murder only carries a sentence of 5 years. Bob isn't completely sure how much info the cops have on him with respect to heroin dealing. The cops offer him a deal: plead guilty to murder and flip on his supplier, and they'll drop the case against him related to heroin dealing. The cops tell Bob that if he doesn't take the plea bargain, they will prosecute for heroin dealing.

Bob didn't commit murder - it was clearly self-defense. But he is willing to plead guilty to murder because it carries a shorter sentence than heroin dealing does.

The action can be cast as a crime, and can be plead to as a crime, without actually having been a crime.

That's not the right analogy, of course one could plead guilty to a crime for which you are innocent.

The argument occasionally is that he pleaded guilty to something that wasn't a crime bug which he did actually do. Or possibly that he pleaded guilty to something that he didn't do and anyway wasn't a crime.

Which is just a stupid argument.

It is like Bob being charged with dealing in carrots.
 
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