Status
Not open for further replies.
Some thinking out loud.

I just saw a clip of George Will saying the country decided not to remove Clinton from office for his "abominable" behavior because they determined that his crimes were not serious enough to overturn a presidential election. As far as the Cohen stuff is concerned, I'm inclined to say Trump's behavior similarly fails to meet that otherwise reasonable threshold (even if Trump funneled payments through his fake charity).

Could the Daniels/McDougal revelations themselves have turned the election? It's tempting to answer "no" and argue "everyone knew" Trump was a womanizer. Putting aside hindsight bias, the news would have made his cheating more concrete and less abstract. The Access Hollywood tape was "just locker room talk," whereas an affair with a pornstar, and a newborn at home, is pretty scuzzy. The bigger problem could have been, "What else has he done? What else do we not know?"

Trump's narrow victory complicates matters. Overturning an election is serious business, which is why Comey has said the American people should not count on Mueller to save them. Citizens can take matters into their own hands by voting. The argument see-saws the other way because elections derive their moral legitimacy from the will of the people, and we have an Electoral College that awarded the presidency to someone who won fewer votes. It's a stupid institution, but we have to abide by the results (and work to abolish it).

Trump apologists have recently taken to crediting broad powers to the president -- he cannot obstruct justice, he can pardon himself, he's not accountable to financial conflicts of interest; maybe we don't even like it, they could say, but that's how the Constitution works. And if we take that logic, then Congress can impeach and remove the president for just about any ol' reason -- because that's how it works. However, in addition to laws, we have norms and traditions (e.g., release your tax returns) which Trump has been subverting. Even with removing a president, the Constitution undermines popular will; understandably, it requires a super-majority of two-thirds, but that's two-thirds of the highly unrepresentative Senate. Some of these problems are ultimately rooted in a pre-democratic Constitution.

What if Trump won 70% of the vote? Would this Russian probe matter as much? MAGAns would probably say the Democrats are just out to get the president by any means available. Nixon trounced the Democrats in his re-election, yet he was threatened with removal. Corruption, as Biden might say, is a big ******' deal. For the point against, however, there was no recourse available for the people; Nixon was serving his second and final term, so Congress had to use its impeachment power.

I'd bet a lot of people feel the same way -- you can't deny Trump the presidency for a sex scandal, especially if you frame it as a campaign finance violation (and tack on conspiracy for good measure). Now, collaborating with Russia is another matter, and if Mueller can back it up, then I think that's something a large part of the country can get behind.

I would not hold impeachment proceedings against Trump over this. Not his affairs, not his hush money, not this illegal campaign contributions. But if he paid Cohen legal fees or the porn stars with the Trump foundation accounts, it's a very different ball game.

Far more troubling to me has been his abuse of power. The blatant obstruction of justice and jury tampering.

My guess is that there will be other crimes uncovered.
 
It's encouraging that shares on predictit.com that Trump won't even be the 2020 nominee have gone from 36¢ when I mentioned it a few days ago to 44¢ now -- dang, coulda already turned a profit if I bought then. I hope he is the candidate, rather than someone more electable, but that's still a tempting bet because I really think Republicans will eventually realize that, too.

I did, however, cash in on my 29¢ shares that the difference in the 538 generic Democrat/Republican polls would be 7 points or more by last night: it was 7.9. :D

Still time to buy in: Trump couldn't have won 2016 without the help of the National Enquirer - he certainly can't win a 2020 nomination with Pecker as his enemy.
 
The crux of the matter is Cohen is guilty of commiting a crime. There is no doubt about this since he agrees that he is guilty.

As long as one Republican supporter somewhere continues to say he is innocent you have no choice but to agree to having reasonable doubt about his guilt. :rolleyes:
 
The crux of the matter is Cohen is guilty of commiting a crime. There is no doubt about this since he agrees that he is guilty.

As long as one Republican supporter somewhere continues to say he is innocent you have no choice but to agree to having reasonable doubt about his guilt. :rolleyes:

Not to mention the Dolt sycophants seem never to have heard of Corpus Delecti

For the few ignorant ones among us, it is a term in Western jurisprudence referring to the principle that a crime must be proved to have occurred before a person can be convicted of committing that crime.

Pleading guilty, and having that plea accepted by the court is a conviction. Cohen could not, indeed would not have been allowed to plead guilty to a crime if no crime had been committed.
 
Last edited:
Yep very standard, the government offered leniency in regards to his (and his wife's) sentencing in exchange for not having to prove all of the elements of the charges by clear and convincing evidence, and to get a plea on charges that it will try to use to go after much bigger fish.

Consensus is cool.

Isn't this a cornerstone of the American legal system and why most criminal convictions are not the result of actual trials?

I mean where i come from people cannot "plead guilty" and get a lesser sentence (although they can, because of a recent new law, potentially help with the criminal investigation in return for a lesser sentence).

In at least one case the judges found someone innocent of DUI, even-though the accused admitted it, because the other evidence was of such poor quality.
 
Trump Tweets


“Department of Justice will not be improperly influenced by political considerations.” Jeff, this is GREAT, what everyone wants, so look into all of the corruption on the “other side” including deleted Emails, Comey lies & leaks, Mueller conflicts, McCabe, Strzok, Page, Ohr......"

"....FISA abuse, Christopher Steele & his phony and corrupt Dossier, the Clinton Foundation, illegal surveillance of Trump Campaign, Russian collusion by Dems - and so much more. Open up the papers & documents without redaction? Come on Jeff, you can do it, the country is waiting!"


 
Trump Tweets


“Department of Justice will not be improperly influenced by political considerations.” Jeff, this is GREAT, what everyone wants, so look into all of the corruption on the “other side” including deleted Emails, Comey lies & leaks, Mueller conflicts, McCabe, Strzok, Page, Ohr......"

"....FISA abuse, Christopher Steele & his phony and corrupt Dossier, the Clinton Foundation, illegal surveillance of Trump Campaign, Russian collusion by Dems - and so much more. Open up the papers & documents without redaction? Come on Jeff, you can do it, the country is waiting!"



Trump needs to Twitter-shame Sessions into resigning, because he will never have the guts to fire him.
 
Trump has said on Fox News that 'flipping', ie co-operating with prosecutors and testifying about their superior's wrongdoing isn't 'fair' and should 'almost' be illegal.
 
Trump has said on Fox News that 'flipping', ie co-operating with prosecutors and testifying about their superior's wrongdoing isn't 'fair' and should 'almost' be illegal.

That's literally what any higher-up in an Organized Crime organizations says.

But only only that. He also said:
“I have seen it many times,” he continued, leaning in toward Earhardt. “I have had many friends involved in this stuff. "

The President just said that he had many friends who were investigated for being involved in Organized Crime.

Republicans must be so proud.
 
(I spotted a major mistake in my post, which would take more time to fix than I have right now. Apologies to all.)
 
Last edited:
Rachel Maddow pointed out last night that all of the cases in which the Mueller has indicted have been turned over to other offices, except one: Paul Manafort. Whereas the charges he was convicted of in his first trial were personal finance crimes, having nothing to do with Trump, his next trial will get into his acting as a foreign agent while working for the campaign.
 
Remember to donate to heroes of the Resistance!

Andy McCabe: sat on evidence, repeatedly lied under oath, fired by FBI.
Peter Strzok: serial philanderer, used FBI equipment to hide affairs, fired by FBI;
Michael Cohen: 5 time convicted tax cheat.

All with go fund me accounts for the convenience of the Rubes.
 
That means the prior probability that a convicted felon (such as Michael Cohen) whose guilty plea was accepted by a judge is actually innocent is believed to be between 2 and 8 percent. As stated above by both jimbob and LSSBB, and remarked upon by a number of others, we do in fact have additional information in this particular case that has the effect of lowering that probability by quite a bit.

No, WD. Whether Cohen is guilty or innocent of making a campaign contribution by paying Stormy depends entirely upon whether paying Stormy is a campaign contribution. Statistics do not matter for that evaluation.

And again, because you're misrepresenting the debate, the issue here was whether or not judges reject false guilty pleas. It was claimed that the judge's acceptance of the plea was evidence that the plea was correct. But this is wrong. Judges do not generally reject guilty pleas even when the defendant is not guilty. That's all the link was needed for. Nobody has actually contested that.

Ziggurat's argument here has been dishonest, accusing others of mistakes Ziggurat himself has introduced into the conversation, and accusing those who applied the statistics correctly of not understanding statistics when it is Ziggurat who is failing to apply the statistics correctly.

No, WD. You have every single thing in this post wrong, because you don't understand what's actually being argued.
 
And you don't think that pleading guilty to something that isn't a crime would be something a judge might consider to be "extraordinary circumstances"?

God damn it, are you not paying any attention? We just went through this! No, it's not extraordinary circumstances. It's sadly quite ordinary. Judges very rarely reject guilty pleas from the innocent.

How does that work, anyway? The judge has to find them guilty of something, some actual criminal statute, to accept a plea of guilty, whether the defendant is in fact guilty or not.

You really need to work on your reading comprehension. Cohen pleaded guilty to an illegal campaign contribution. That's an actual crime. But if the payment to Stormy wasn't a campaign contribution (and I do not believe it was, for reasons detailed already), then Cohen can't actually be guilty of it.

That isn't a complicated concept. How can you not grasp it? You can claim I'm wrong that it was a campaign contribution and therefore a crime, but that's what the argument has to rest on, not the fact that the judge accepted the plea. Star making an argument that actually makes sense.
 
No, WD. Whether Cohen is guilty or innocent of making a campaign contribution by paying Stormy depends entirely upon whether paying Stormy is a campaign contribution.


It's a ******* campaign contribution!

It was made within 2 weeks of the election.

It was done for the purpose of influencing the election.
 
God damn it, are you not paying any attention? We just went through this! No, it's not extraordinary circumstances. It's sadly quite ordinary. Judges very rarely reject guilty pleas from the innocent.


You really need to work on your reading comprehension. Cohen pleaded guilty to an illegal campaign contribution. That's an actual crime. But if the payment to Stormy wasn't a campaign contribution (and I do not believe it was, for reasons detailed already), then Cohen can't actually be guilty of it.

That isn't a complicated concept. How can you not grasp it? You can claim I'm wrong that it was a campaign contribution and therefore a crime, but that's what the argument has to rest on, not the fact that the judge accepted the plea. Star making an argument that actually makes sense.

To repeat folks:

"Cohen pleaded guilty to an illegal campaign contribution. That's an actual crime. But if the payment to Stormy wasn't a campaign contribution (and I do not believe it was, for reasons detailed already), then Cohen can't actually be guilty of it."

This has been explained ten ways to Sunday
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom