[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Since you've quoted him/her and the quote box begins with his/her name, there is no need to type out his/her name at all.



You're free to do so, if you wish. But it's something you're imposing on yourself. Nobody other than you cares. Except, maybe, when you arbitrarily shorten their names, as that can be seen as disrespectful. Were I you, I'd just reply like absolutely everybody else on this site does. Part of being part of a group is learning the conventions and social standards of that group. Not starting a reply with someone's name is absolutely fine here. Doing it without typing that person's full name can be seen as rude and disrespectful.

It's entirely up to you but, if you choose to continue posting as you have, you should recognise that it's a rod you've made for your own back and it's not the responsibility of other posters to accept you changing their names in order to make it easier for you to adhere to rules which are self-imposed.


Eschewing social conventions is a hallmark of woo beliefs.

In the world of Internet forums, this is usually demonstrated via non-standard formatting. He can't bring himself to conform; he is too special.
 
- Reviewing the last two pages, I found the following issues.
1. Deterministic universe? (My answer @ #2558.)
2. Why aren’t the rest of us special? (My answer @ #2540.)
3. False dichotomy. (My answer @ #2560.)
4. Why “at most”?
5. Validity of my numbers?
6. Other life forms?

- I’ll start by elaborating re #3.
- As for my definitions of p and ~p -- assuming that P is what I'm calling the "Scientific Model" -- specifically, this model holds that my self will exist for only one finite life at most. The complementary model is that my self will exist and it will exist continuously, or for multiple lifetimes.
- At this point, I have to admit that my model is not quite complementary. My model is that I am immortal -- that I will exist continuously or periodically ... forever.

- I think that what I would like to do now is shift over to the real complementary model and see if I can establish that its posterior probability is unimaginably large (I had it backwards before) -- given my current existence. If I can do that, I'll come back to the immortality model and argue it.


- Questions?

You're saying time is long my life is short therefore I'm immortal.
 
LL,
- That isn't my "proposition." My current proposition is that if I (as a potential self) ever come to exist, I will live for one finite lifetime. My complementary proposition is that if I (as a potential self) ever come to exist, I will live either infinitely, or more than once.
- These propositions apply equally to either a non-deterministic universe, or a deterministic universe. A deterministic universe wouldn't make any difference re the prior probabilities, as prior probabilities are based upon the information we have prior to the particular event. Consequently, whether our universe is deterministic or not, we still have to deal with probabilities -- as our relevant info is grossly lacking.

This is entirely insufficient and you have not controlled for a deterministic universe...

LL,
- I think that the highlighted section accounts for a deterministic universe. Why do you think that it doesn't?
Anyone,
- It appears that Loss Leader is away from his computer. Can anyone else answer my question?
 
Anyone,
- It appears that Loss Leader is away from his computer. Can anyone else answer my question?

Good afternoon, Mr. Savage!

I realize that I am not the person you are hoping to hear form, nor is what I am going to say what you are hoping to hear. However, in response to this:

- That isn't my "proposition." My current proposition is that if I (as a potential self) ever come to exist, I will live for one finite lifetime. My complementary proposition is that if I (as a potential self) ever come to exist, I will live either infinitely, or more than once.
- These propositions apply equally to either a non-deterministic universe, or a deterministic universe. A deterministic universe wouldn't make any difference re the prior probabilities, as prior probabilities are based upon the information we have prior to the particular event. Consequently, whether our universe is deterministic or not, we still have to deal with probabilities -- as our relevant info is grossly lacking.

I have to say that the thing you continue to miss is that if your p invokes a "deterministic" universe, your ~p will encompass everything else--including the iterations where the universe would not be deterministic; if your p does not invoke a "deterministic" universe, your ~p will encompass everything else--including the iterations where the universe would be deterministic. As long as you keep trying to define ~p as anything other than "everything that is not p", you keep on making the same mistake. Once you define p, ~p is everything else.
 
LL,
- I think that the highlighted section accounts for a deterministic universe. Why do you think that it doesn't?


Because I understand logic and reasoning?

This has all been explained to you many, many times over. If you choose not to understand it, for whatever reason, I cannot force it upon you.
 
Frozenwolf,

[...]
- My chemistry/biology teacher in HS would answer raised hands with the person's first name. She'd just point at me. [...]

Why? Perhaps she took umbrage with your attitude that scientists are dishonest and incompetent.
 
Because I understand logic and reasoning?

This has all been explained to you many, many times over. If you choose not to understand it, for whatever reason, I cannot force it upon you.
LL,
- I still disagree with you re the deterministic universe issue, but I think I've given it my best shot and will move on.
 
- I might finally have an effective way to express my dichotomy.
- The SM holds that any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence. The NSM (the complement) holds that any self that comes to exist will either exist continuously, or will exist more than once.
- Many of you will believe that it's the same thing I've been saying -- and I agree that it is what I've been trying to say -- hopefully, I'll be satisfied with this rendition.
 
- I might finally have an effective way to express my dichotomy.
- The SM holds that any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence. The NSM (the complement) holds that any self that comes to exist will either exist continuously, or will exist more than once.
- Many of you will believe that it's the same thing I've been saying -- and I agree that it is what I've been trying to say -- hopefully, I'll be satisfied with this rendition.

No good.

Without being exactly precise in my use of language, your proposition is that "all living things are mortal". The complement is not "all living things are not mortal", which is what you seem to be saying. You flipped from one extreme to the other, living the middle out completely.

The complement of "all living things are mortal" is "some living thing is not mortal". It only takes one.
 
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Maybe this is worth a shot?

Well, Jabba, let’s try something different.

Consider what it would be like to survive bodily death, consciousness intact (that’s what immortality means, right?), and know that you would never die, not ever, not even when the universe had expanded until every subatomic particle was octillions of kilometers from the next one. Why, the first instant of eternity would not have elapsed even then! Do you really think your human mind could take that?

What would not taking it mean anyway? Would you beg your deterministic/nondeterministic God to let you cease to exist, to fall mercifully asleep and not awaken? He’d just reply, “Nuh-uh, buddy. Nobody told you to be born, you started existing on your own. In my eternity, you take what you get. If you’re bored, try doing crosswords or sumpin’.” Because if you could die in that bodiless state, then it wouldn't be immortality at all, now would it? God would never let you get away with a cheap trick like that, country boy!

This matter of immortality comes up on JREF from time to time. I can recall a thread of some years back in which we – brace yourself for the sheer improbability of it – actually reached a consensus! Yes, we JREFers, atheists, agnostics (whatever those are), and religious believers, all agreed: In order to endure immortal existence, we’d have to become something other than human.

Maybe you’re a closet Mormon and think you’ll grow up to be a god, but in my estimation, we’d have to become something considerably less than human – that means, in your case, something considerably less than Jabba. Creepy thought, innit?

A poster here observed, in that thread or some other, that “the most exquisite paradise would become an unendurable hell in no more than an aeon or two.”

So I hope you’ll put aside that bowl of salad you’re been mixing for two years and think about what you say you desire, that is, immortality. Don’t try to think rationally; that’s not your game. Instead, try to feel your human limitations in the immensity of the universe, and be glad that, in cosmic terms, you exist only for a fragment of a second.
 
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- I might finally have an effective way to express my dichotomy.
- The SM holds that any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence. The NSM (the complement) holds that any self that comes to exist will either exist continuously, or will exist more than once.
- Many of you will believe that it's the same thing I've been saying -- and I agree that it is what I've been trying to say -- hopefully, I'll be satisfied with this rendition.

It's exactly the same thing that you've already been saying. Nobody has a problem with your phrasing, it's your logic which is lacking. Rephrasing illogic doesn't make it more logical.
 
- I might finally have an effective way to express my dichotomy.
- The SM holds that any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence. The NSM (the complement) holds that any self that comes to exist will either exist continuously, or will exist more than once.
- Many of you will believe that it's the same thing I've been saying -- and I agree that it is what I've been trying to say -- hopefully, I'll be satisfied with this rendition.

Good evening, Mr. Savage.

I am sorry, but I agree with neither of your formulations above; further, they represent the same mistake you have been making all along with regards to p and ~p.

1. Unless and until you can demonstrate that any scientist makes the claim that "any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence", I refuse to agree that that represents the "scientific model" (your SM). The "scientific model" is that consciousness (what you are celling the "self", but by which you mean the "soul") is an emergent property of the neurosystem, that is, consciousness if a by-product of the structure of the brain. (p)

2. The complement of that statement (~p) is that consciousness is not an emergent property of the brain. Full stop. Any description of consciousness that does not involve consciousness being a by-product of the structure of the brain will be included in that ~p. Do notice, please, that a description such as "the "soul exists independently of the body, and is immortal" is only a part of ~p; ~p includes anything and everything that is not p.

3. The complement of your "SM" is not, as you have it, that "any self that comes to exist will either exist continuously, or will exist more than once". Instead, if your "SM" is p, ~p can only be stated as , "any 'self' that comes into existence will not have only one, finite existence". Anything that fits that description (two finite existences; three; the illusion of existence at all; a non-infinite existence at the will of the Hairy Thunderer; an unspecified number of non-infinite existences based on random chance; etc.) is part of ~p; is subsumed in ~p. It is, as you have been told, the fallacy of false dichotomy to pick only your desired case, that the "soul" is immortal, and call that inevitable. Instead, any condition where the self does not have only one finite existence is a small part of ~p.

As long as you continue to mis-state ~p, there is no ground for agreement. You are correct in that you are still saying what you have been saying all along; it is, however, still wrong.
 
Frozenwolf,
- Hopefully, the following will approach an answer to your request, even though it's mostly my reasoning rather than my evidence, and it's within my argument for the concept/story of Jesus. If you'd prefer to skip it, let me know, and I'll come back with what "evidence" I have.

- http://messiahornot.com/Magic.php
- I suspect that reductionistically speaking, reality doesn't make sense -- and, in that sense, reality is "magical."

What does Jesus have to do with immortality?
 
1. Unless and until you can demonstrate that any scientist makes the claim that "any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence", I refuse to agree that that represents the "scientific model" (your SM). The "scientific model" is that consciousness (what you are celling the "self", but by which you mean the "soul") if an emergent property of the neurosystem, that is, consciousness is a by-product of the structure of the brain.


Jabba: I think that this sums up your problem with p nicely.

The bolded above is a scientific model. I would add the statement "Consciousness does not exist independently of the brain, and will cease to exist when the brain no longer functions". This is what p should be.

You are stating that p is "any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence." This is a conclusion based on the above scientific model, not a scientific model in itself.

By stating p as "any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence.", you are focusing on the number one, so that in ~p the number of lives must be different, hence greater.

This is not logic. This is playing word games.
 
Frozenwolf,
- Hopefully, the following will approach an answer to your request, even though it's mostly my reasoning rather than my evidence, and it's within my argument for the concept/story of Jesus. If you'd prefer to skip it, let me know, and I'll come back with what "evidence" I have.

- http://messiahornot.com/Magic.php
- I suspect that reductionistically speaking, reality doesn't make sense -- and, in that sense, reality is "magical."

You don't have to address me by username, just quoting me is fine. I'll know if I see my username in the quote box.

Your source appears to be relegating all explanations and evidence to an antecedent labeled "magical reality" and is basing this reasoning on the assumption that one's existence is next to impossible. It makes this assumption in much the same way you have. In both cases, it's an unsupported assertion. Your source makes several arguments from incredulity, and seems to be saying that if we don't know the answer or lack the capacity to seek the answers, we must assume reality is "magical." Also, this still doesn't provide a mechanism or explanation for how consciousness could survive physical death.

Here's the thing. This falls into the category of a personal belief. If you want to believe it, that's fine. If you want to present it as evidence however, you're going to have to do a lot better than merely claiming that reality is "magical."
 
- I might finally have an effective way to express my dichotomy.
- The SM holds that any self that comes to exist will have only one, finite existence. The NSM (the complement) holds that any self that comes to exist will either exist continuously, or will exist more than once.
- Many of you will believe that it's the same thing I've been saying -- and I agree that it is what I've been trying to say -- hopefully, I'll be satisfied with this rendition.

Your NSM might also include instances where a self might only have a single, finite existence. You are implying that in the current scientific model, there is no room for immortality. While it is not proven that immortality is impossible, no scientist would say flat out that it is impossible. You can't lean on current knowledge as truth. Our understanding of the physical universe is ever changing, therefore, your SM might, in the future, also include the possibility that at least one self may exist as an immortal self.

I'm quite sure this point has been brought up at least once in this thread. Is it possible it is an immortal point?
 
He has appealed for support before, on the Shroud thread. In general, he'd go to Shroud believer sites and tell people how horrible we are and ask for people t join him. He'd get people saying that yes, we are horrible, but not supporting him. However, when he was presented with evidence or arguments he couldn't refute, he would ask them and they'd give him answers which he would dutifully parrot back to us, regardless of whether or not they'd already been addressed in the thread several times.

Interesting.

I will reflect on it.
 
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