[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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Jabba said:
LL,
- That isn't my "proposition." My current proposition is that if I (as a potential self) ever come to exist, I will live for one finite lifetime. My complementary proposition is that if I (as a potential self) ever come to exist, I will live either infinitely, or more than once.
- These propositions apply equally to either a non-deterministic universe, or a deterministic universe. A deterministic universe wouldn't make any difference re the prior probabilities, as prior probabilities are based upon the information we have prior to the particular event. Consequently, whether our universe is deterministic or not, we still have to deal with probabilities -- as our relevant info is grossly lacking.
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Loss Leader said:
This is entirely insufficient and you have not controlled for a deterministic universe...
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LL,
- I think that the highlighted section accounts for a deterministic universe. Why do you think that it doesn't?
 
Jabba said:
LL,
- I think that the highlighted section accounts for a deterministic universe. Why do you think that it doesn't?
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Good morning, Mr. Savage:

At the risk of being accused of being "pre-coffee grumpy", I will point out that Loss Leader has addressed that. Go back and read again.

It's really just another way to point out your confusion about ~p.

I hope your weekend goes well.
 
@jabba,

What is the complement of IF a THEN b?

If your response after simplification of ~(IF a THEN b) has an IF...THEN in it, you are doing it wrong.
 
Frozenwolf150 said:
I will admit I'm full of personal biases. I will admit I make mistakes, have made mistakes, and will continue to make mistakes in the future. I will admit I don't know everything there is to know about the universe, the nature of human consciousness, where we came from, or where we're going. Yes, the big questions in life are tough. However, that gives me all the more reason to believe it's very unlikely that someone has already come up with all the answers...
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Frozenwolf,

- I'm a slow two-finger typist. Is there a shorter nickname that you wouldn't mind me calling you by?
- My chemistry/biology teacher in HS would answer raised hands with the person's first name. She'd just point at me. It seems to me that using a person's first name in such situations tends to be a show of respect. That's why I think that it's functional to start each response here with the user name of the person I'm speaking to...

- Anyway, I'm not sure why you think that I'm implying that I have all the answers. I think that I have a little bit of knowledge, and that a little bit of knowledge does tend to be problematic. Note that my "signature" includes, "Most good ideas don't work.
 
Jabba said:
- I'm a slow two-finger typist. Is there a shorter nickname that you wouldn't mind me calling you by?
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You almost certainly have some way of cutting and pasting text from the screen, to save typing. That said, since you're replying to a quoted post, which has the name of the person you are replying to at the beginning, you can surely save yourself even that step.
 
Jabba said:
Frozenwolf,

- I'm a slow two-finger typist. Is there a shorter nickname that you wouldn't mind me calling you by?
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Since you've quoted him/her and the quote box begins with his/her name, there is no need to type out his/her name at all.

- My chemistry/biology teacher in HS would answer raised hands with the person's first name. She'd just point at me. It seems to me that using a person's first name in such situations tends to be a show of respect. That's why I think that it's functional to start each response here with the user name of the person I'm speaking to...
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You're free to do so, if you wish. But it's something you're imposing on yourself. Nobody other than you cares. Except, maybe, when you arbitrarily shorten their names, as that can be seen as disrespectful. Were I you, I'd just reply like absolutely everybody else on this site does. Part of being part of a group is learning the conventions and social standards of that group. Not starting a reply with someone's name is absolutely fine here. Doing it without typing that person's full name can be seen as rude and disrespectful.

It's entirely up to you but, if you choose to continue posting as you have, you should recognise that it's a rod you've made for your own back and it's not the responsibility of other posters to accept you changing their names in order to make it easier for you to adhere to rules which are self-imposed.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Since you've quoted him/her and the quote box begins with his/her name, there is no need to type out his/her name at all.



You're free to do so, if you wish. But it's something you're imposing on yourself. Nobody other than you cares. Except, maybe, when you arbitrarily shorten their names, as that can be seen as disrespectful. Were I you, I'd just reply like absolutely everybody else on this site does. Part of being part of a group is learning the conventions and social standards of that group. Not starting a reply with someone's name is absolutely fine here. Doing it without typing that person's full name can be seen as rude and disrespectful.

It's entirely up to you but, if you choose to continue posting as you have, you should recognise that it's a rod you've made for your own back and it's not the responsibility of other posters to accept you changing their names in order to make it easier for you to adhere to rules which are self-imposed.
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Surely an immortal would have plenty of time to learn that?
 
Jabba said:
jsfisher said:
@jabba,

What is the complement of IF a THEN b?

If your response after simplification of ~(IF a THEN b) has an IF...THEN in it, you are doing it wrong.
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jsfisher,

- If I understand your question, this should be the answer.

- The following comes from www.math.uiuc.edu/~hildebr/461/conditional.pdf‎
- "Complement rule for conditional probabilities: P(Ac|B)=1 − P(A|B)."
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- Oh, my!
- "IF a THEN b" is a proposition in logic. It is of the same form as the proposition you've been trying to palm-off, "IF jabba will exist THEN...".
- The complement of a proposition in logic is another proposition in logic.
- I did not ask anything about probabilities, conditional or otherwise.

Let's try again, please: What is the complement of IF a THEN b?

If this question causes you great confusion, then it is no wonder you cannot state the complement for your own proposition.
 
Frozenwolf150 said:
All I'm asking is for some evidence. Show me any of the things of which you speak.
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Frozenwolf,
- Hopefully, the following will approach an answer to your request, even though it's mostly my reasoning rather than my evidence, and it's within my argument for the concept/story of Jesus. If you'd prefer to skip it, let me know, and I'll come back with what "evidence" I have.

- http://messiahornot.com/Magic.php
- I suspect that reductionistically speaking, reality doesn't make sense -- and, in that sense, reality is "magical."
 
Jabba said:
Frozenwolf,

- I'm a slow two-finger typist. Is there a shorter nickname that you wouldn't mind me calling you by?
- My chemistry/biology teacher in HS would answer raised hands with the person's first name. She'd just point at me. It seems to me that using a person's first name in such situations tends to be a show of respect. That's why I think that it's functional to start each response here with the user name of the person I'm speaking to...

- Anyway, I'm not sure why you think that I'm implying that I have all the answers. I think that I have a little bit of knowledge, and that a little bit of knowledge does tend to be problematic. Note that my "signature" includes, "Most good ideas don't work.
Click to expand...

You appear to have no trouble typing in a lot of text; you can type (or paste in) a much shorter full name, can't you? Also do or did you call your boss a short nickname? Using the full name is a sign of social respect.

I also must note that it was you who said you would use Baysein logic to prove your point that you are immortal (post 1), now you say you can't ""prove" it, that you never implied you have the answers, and you have repeatedly shown that you cannot set up correctly, let alone do the math, on a Baysein problem. You have also shown that you are unwilling to learn from those of us who are trying to help. What a waste of a thread!
 
dafydd said:
I think that he is just amusing himself. Even a non-mathematician like me has got the point about p by now.
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^^^^This. I can't even stand to look at Greek letters, and even I get it.:) We may have reasonably expected a "eureka moment" by now.
 
jsfisher said:
- Oh, my!
- "IF a THEN b" is a proposition in logic. It is of the same form as the proposition you've been trying to palm-off, "IF jabba will exist THEN...".
- The complement of a proposition in logic is another proposition in logic.
- I did not ask anything about probabilities, conditional or otherwise.

Let's try again, please: What is the complement of IF a THEN b?

If this question causes you great confusion, then it is no wonder you cannot state the complement for your own proposition.
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jsfisher,
- I didn't understand your symbolization. I would have said, "If A, then B." Upper case and lower case would have been switched
- The complement of "If A, then B" is "If A the non-B."
 
Jabba said:
jsfisher,
- I didn't understand your symbolization. I would have said, "If A, then B." Upper case and lower case would have been switched
- The complement of "If A, then B" is "If A the non-B."
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You still don't get it: not a is the complement of a, not your conditional example. Can't you imagine if A implies nothing about B or non-B?

If I wear a blue shirt today does not determine if we live in a spiral.arm galaxy or not
 
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Jabba said:
Frozenwolf,
- Hopefully, the following will approach an answer to your request, even though it's mostly my reasoning rather than my evidence, and it's within my argument for the concept/story of Jesus. If you'd prefer to skip it, let me know, and I'll come back with what "evidence" I have.

- http://messiahornot.com/Magic.php
- I suspect that reductionistically speaking, reality doesn't make sense -- and, in that sense, reality is "magical."
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Good morning, Mr. Savage!

I hope your Saturday is progressing to your liking.

At the risk of being accused of being "biased", are you finally admitting that your argument boils down to, "I believe I am immortal, because Jesus"?

It is fine for you to hold that belief. It is either dishonest, or self-deceptive, to pretend that your belief counts as evidence, or is, in any way, an end-run around needing to provide rational, empirical, practical evidence in order to say that you have "proved", or "essentially proved", or "kinda proved", your claim that:
1. there is such a thing as a "soul";
2. that "consciousness" is just another word for "soul";
3. that the "soul" is independent of the neurosystem; and,
4. that the "soul" is "immortal".

If all this is just your statement of faith, you should have left it in the Religion section. OTH, it does explain your position in ShroudTM and Son-of-ShroudTM. You do not scruple to simply assume that scientists are dishonest, or incompetent, or both--because Jesus.
 
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Jabba said:
jsfisher,
- I didn't understand your symbolization. I would have said, "If A, then B." Upper case and lower case would have been switched
- The complement of "If A, then B" is "If A the non-B."
Click to expand...


- IF...THEN is standard logic construction.
- Letter case is immaterial. It is just notation where case was used to clearly separate operators from variables.
- If you prefer the variables as upper case and the operators as mixed case, fine with me. But this contradicts your own usage of capital-P as the probability operator and lower-case-p as your proposition.
- The complement of "if A then B" is not "if A then not B"

Your response is a reflection of the fundamental trouble you have stating the complement of your proposition. You are working from a false foundation.

When you finally understand why it is "A and not B" and what that means, then you may be ready to move another step.
 
Jabba said:
- http://messiahornot.com/Magic.php
- I suspect that reductionistically speaking, reality doesn't make sense -- and, in that sense, reality is "magical."
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I suspect that reductionistically speaking, most of that web page doesn't make sense; yes, it's trivially obvious that if you believe in magic, things will appear magical, but nonsense about one brain hemisphere processing "holistically," and the other "analytically" doesn't lend it any weight - it just shows up the careless superficiality of the thought behind it.
 
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