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McCain is done

FaisonMars said:
The model simulations at fivethirtyeight.com are fairly convincing, and they still show McCain winning about 13% of the time. Fairly improbable, but not impossible.
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That number is based on how fast reaction swings his way between now and the election day. As it is based on rates, the number will narrow to near zero by November.
 
corplinx said:
Even a big gaffe won't work. Its all about turnout. Obama has going to have tons of it. The extended primary process that democrats whined about worked to his advantage since he has battle tested organizations in place in states that usually don't even get a real say in the primary season.

His people are going door to door, registering people everywhere, using all that money he's gaining from being outside the system, and canvassing communities across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in higher than he's polling at.
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You have that right. He has the most amazing ground game I have ever seen. And it has coattails. Local Republicans are in dismay here as many of them are going to lose in a county which has been a Repub sinecure since the 1800s.
 
Oliver said:
I'm following the electoral map for quite some time now - and
now it's obvious that McCain drowns himself and Palin down the
Toilet of irrelevance - or as he would call it: "Suspending the
campaign":

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

So what shall we talk about concerning the election now that
Obama is the new President? :)
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Oliver, please do Obama (and all of us) a big favor and STFU. If anything can bring Obama down (besides a Joe Biden sex tape) it is arrogance. Fortunately, Obama is not so gleeful and certain as you are. The fact that he's trotting out the Keating Five ad is a testimony to how seriously he still takes McCain. You should take a clue from him.

And another thing. When and if Obama wins, try to be gracious. Let Republicans gloat when they win. Democrats should show more class. Okay?
 
Shutup shutup, everyone knows that saying it out loud jinxes it.

* wonders why all the skeptics are looking at him funny *
 
Tricky said:
Oliver, please do Obama (and all of us) a big favor and STFU. If anything can bring Obama down (besides a Joe Biden sex tape) it is arrogance. Fortunately, Obama is not so gleeful and certain as you are. The fact that he's trotting out the Keating Five ad is a testimony to how seriously he still takes McCain. You should take a clue from him.

And another thing. When and if Obama wins, try to be gracious. Let Republicans gloat when they win. Democrats should show more class. Okay?
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Huh, personally I'm in no way part of the Democratic or Republican party,
not even allowed to vote. So I just express my opinion regarding the
obvious winner. You'll see. :)
 
Oliver said:
Huh, personally I'm in no way part of the Democratic or Republican party, not even allowed to vote. So I just express my opinion regarding the obvious winner. You'll see. :)
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You are probably right about the winner, but not certainly. But gloating about it is enough to turn people against the team you support. You're acting like a brainless cheerleader. That's Palin's job. (just a joke, folks)
 
Tricky said:
You are probably right about the winner, but not certainly. But gloating about it is enough to turn people against the team you support. You're acting like a brainless cheerleader. That's Palin's job. (just a joke, folks)
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Okay, I will shut my mouth about President Obama and the oval office's
new carpet until the already decided election is over, promised.

You'll see. :">
 
dudalb said:
I think Obama is a very heavy favorite, but he needs to keep up the get out the vote campaign , and not get sloppy. I think overconfidence is what the Obama people have got to guard against .
It ain't over till it's over.
I am voting for Obama, and I don't lot to see him lose because some people who were going to vote for him decide to stay home because he has it in the bag.
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I think you'll see more overcompensation than overconfidence. Every Obama supporter I know (myself included) is skittish and ulcer-prone about this election. There's a real take-no-chances mood. For every declaration of victory there's a prediction of disaster just around the corner.
 
I'm still in the nail-biter camp. Yeah, things look decent but the potential for election day hyjinks puts away any certainty at all.
 
I agree that it looks very favorable for Obama and I do not expect him to falter down the stretch, but....

Never forget the 800-lb gorilla that no one speaks about and everybody knows about: Will enough white voters, when they are actually in the polling booth and alone with their thoughts, vote for a black man (mixed race, I grant you, but still considered black by most) as president?

I intend to. But that gorilla keeps prowling around....
 
BenBurch said:
I just heard from my friends that McCain is pulling out of Florida.
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Your friends also said the Obama is going to take Texas, so forgive me if I don't put much stock in this pronouncement. :D

edit: Pulling out of Florida would literally be a concession. It won't happen.
 
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chipmunk stew said:
Your friends also said the Obama is going to take Texas, so forgive me if I don't put much stock in this pronouncement. :D

edit: Pulling out of Florida would literally be a concession. It won't happen.
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LOL. Yeah, as an Obama supporter in Texas, I can tell you that this is a big "no way". It won't be close. Closer than recent elections, perhaps, but still not close. It's a bummer, but at least I can take comfort in the fact that Obama's favored to win overall. Every year, I curse the electoral system.
 
Hutch said:
Never forget the 800-lb gorilla that no one speaks about and everybody knows about.
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You are muddling your metaphorical animals.

It's elephants in the room that no-one talks about.

800-lb gorillas sleep where they like.

Mind you, we could argue about this 'til the cows came home to roost, so maybe it's better to let sleeping dogs have their day.
 
chipmunk stew said:
Your friends also said the Obama is going to take Texas, so forgive me if I don't put much stock in this pronouncement. :D

edit: Pulling out of Florida would literally be a concession. It won't happen.
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Same here..... McCain pulled out of Michigan to FOCUS on Florida (and others). If he doesn't win Florida and Michigan there is nothing to win.

I would love to believe you Ben but I HIGHLY doubt this. Color me skeptical.
 
chipmunk stew said:
I think you'll see more overcompensation than overconfidence. Every Obama supporter I know (myself included) is skittish and ulcer-prone about this election. There's a real take-no-chances mood. For every declaration of victory there's a prediction of disaster just around the corner.
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Same here, every Obama supporter I know is on pins and needles. Years of Rove's tatics and Democrats folding before the finish line are fresh in people's minds.

I honestly don't see folks skipping this election on either side.

That said this show is FAR from over.... it looks pretty good for Obama right now but there are MANY things that could move this in the other direction and quick. No one should give up the race now on the Democrat side.
 
I've been following that site (electoral-vote.com) for a while now. Obama had about 301 projected when I first checked it... dipped to as low as about 264 after the RNC, and now it's as high as I've seen it (except that Colorado recently turned). It looks like McCain is in serious trouble, though.
 
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