Lib Dems beaten into 6th place in Barnsley by-election

[Undesired Walrus]

Just thinking - I would wager many a shiny penny that this also signals the death knell of the pro AV camp. Turnout will likely be low - meaning it'll be a poll of the seriously pro-AV and seriously annoyed. And like it or not plenty of people will simply use it as a "sod off" to the lib dems - I'd guess a comprehensive defeat - 60-40%.

Despite it being only two months away, it really is too early to say whether it will go one way or another. The reason for this is that most people don't know or don't care about AV. I'd imagine the pro-AV camp realise this, so expect them to get more vocal in April. I think most local Joes will know something about it then.

 

[andyandy]

I must be channelling YOUGoV:

A spokesman for No to AV said: "Last night's result is a body blow for Nick Clegg and his £250m AV dream."

The latest polling suggests that opponents of change are ahead in the campaign for the 5 May AV referendum.

YouGov found that 43% of those questioned would vote to retain the current first-past-the-post system, against 32% who would back a change to AV, under which voters rank candidates in numerical order on the ballot paper. Another 17% said they did not know, while 7% said they will not vote.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/mar/04/barnsley-central-kicking-liberal-democrats

Given the pull of the status quo, the dislike of the lib dems and the general ignorance about the net result of a change to AV (and associated boundary changes) would be - i would be amazed if it passes actually.

William Hill say:

William Hill are offering odds of 5/6 that the referendum on voting reform will produce a vote in favour, and the same odds of 5/6 that it will produce a vote against. ‘We believe the outcome will be almost too close to call’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

http://www.betortrade.com/betting-on-bank-of-england-interest-rates-and-latest-a-v-odds/

I'm surprised they're pricing it equally....maybe enough to place a bet

 

[Undesired Walrus]

What I don't understand about the No2AV campaign is why they think talking about the cost will doom it. How is voting No going to get rid of the 250m spent on it?

 

[andyandy]

Despite it being only two months away, it really is too early to say whether it will go one way or another. The reason for this is that most people don't know or don't care about AV. I'd imagine the pro-AV camp realise this, so expect them to get more vocal in April. I think most local Joes will know something about it then.

Well William Hill agree with you

I just don't think the pro AV camp is big enough or powerful enough to affect much change. You have the lib dem mps who everyone hates, only about half of labour MPs led by (so far) a pretty ineffectual leader, and that's pretty much it. There's not going to be too much grassroots enthusiasm to help out with a campaign given the massive disillusionment with politics generally. And unless any of the big papers come out strongly in favour of AV which seems very unlikely - indeed they will likely come out strongly against - then i think this will fizzle.

I'm talking myself into placing a bet here....

 

[Francesca R]

Ladbrokes are Yes: even and No: 8/11. Betfair used to make markets in this sort of thing but I can't find anything at their shop.

ETA: Yes I can. Search for "referendum". Yes is 1.97/2.00, No is 2.00/2.04 http://politics.betfair.com/

 

[andyandy]

What I don't understand about the No2AV campaign is why they think talking about the cost will doom it. How is voting No going to get rid of the 250m spent on it?

The poster writers probably think that most people will only remember stark headlines and are too disinterested in politics to really care to find out if it's true i guess....

I think the £250 million is a pretty much lumped in figure which includes the cost of the referendum (about £80 million), plus possible needs to have computers if we do (though these are not essential....)

 

[andyandy]

Ladbrokes are Yes: even and No: 8/11. Betfair used to make markets in this sort of thing but I can't find anything at their shop.

damn - the markets must have moved based on the by-election and YOUGoV poll....I've missed my edge

(8/11 still seems pretty tempting....)

 

[Francesca R]

Betfair is almost always cheaper than going to regular bookies . . . as in this case

 

[Tolls]

Much of the party and its supporters migrated from the Labour party in the first place, so it's quite understandable IMO.

Except they migrated to a centrist party that stood for PR.
So understandable maybe, but not forgiveable I'm afraid.

And, to be honest, the SDP were fairly centrist themselves, being the right wing of Labour.

Then again, there are some quite, quite barking elements to my party of choice it has to be said.

 

[andyandy]

Definite trends for decline of AV and rise in FPTP....

YouGov, on successive polling including a lengthy explanation[114] followed with the question "If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether to stick with first-past-the-post or switch to the Alternative Vote for electing MPs, how would you vote?", has found the following:


Date↓ For AV↓ For FPTP↓ Wouldn't Vote↓ Don't Know↓
13–14 June 44% 34% 5% 17%
27–28 June 42% 34% 5% 18%
4–5 July 45% 32% 6% 17%
18–19 July 39% 38% 7% 17%
1–2 August 41% 36% 5% 18%
15–16 August 37% 38% 7% 18%
30–31 August 37% 39% 5% 18%
5–6 September 35% 39% 8% 18%
19–20 September 36% 39% 8% 17%
3–4 October 35% 40% 7% 18%
17–18 October 33% 41% 6% 19%
31 October–1 November 32% 43% 8% 17%
14–15 November 33% 40% 7% 20%
28–29 November 35% 41% 7% 17%
12–13 December 33% 39% 7% 21%
25 January 32% 41% – –
7 February 38% 39% 7% 16%
8 February 37% 38% 6% 18%

 

[Francesca R]

Except they migrated to a centrist party [ . . . ]

Perhaps people find centrism boring. I don't.

Blair was the most centrist Labour leader (and the best) and Cameron is the most centrist Tory leader (and the best). Both have had a significant influence on their parties that produced their election wins, but it did not last with Labour and it may not with the Tories. The trashing of the LibDems would be very unfortunate in my view because IMO their influence has been to pull the others to the middle.

 

[Tolls]

Definite trends for decline of AV and rise in FPTP....

Not so sure.
The low point seems to be October/November last year.

 

[Tolls]

Perhaps people find centrism boring. I don't.

Blair was the most centrist Labour leader (and the best) and Cameron is the most centrist Tory leader (and the best). Both have had a significant influence on their parties that produced their election wins, but it did not last with Labour and it may not with the Tories. The trashing of the LibDems would be very unfortunate in my view because IMO their influence has been to pull the others to the middle.

That's what I'm fearing.
Lose them and we'll likely see a polarising.

Interesting times, or something...

 

[Francesca R]

Re the AV referendum: IMO the best predictor is that betfair price, not the historical trend in polls, not current polls and not the bookies. Prediction markets have a much better track record in politics (as long as they are deep enough).

 

[Lothian]

Definite trends for decline of AV and rise in FPTP....

Sorted out the formatting

Month | 4 Av | 4 FPTP | Woudn't vote | Don't know
13–14 June | 44% | 34% | 5% | 17%
27–28 June | 42% | 34% | 5% | 18%
4–5 July | 45% | 32% | 6% | 17%
18–19 July | 39% | 38% | 7% | 17%
1–2 August | 41% | 36% | 5% | 18%
15–16 August | 37% | 38% | 7% | 18%
30–31 August | 37% | 39% | 5% | 18%
5–6 September | 35% | 39% | 8% | 18%
19–20 September | 36% | 39% | 8% | 17%
3–4 October | 35% | 40% | 7% | 18%
17–18 October | 33% | 41% | 6% | 19%
31 October– | 32% | 43% | 8% |17%
14–15 November | 33% | 40% | 7% | 20%
28–29 November | 35% | 41% | 7% | 17%
12–13 December | 33% | 39% | 7% | 21%
25 January | 32% | 41% | – | –
7 February | 38% | 39% | 7% | 16%
8 February | 37% | 38% | 6% | 18%

 

[andyandy]

Sorted out the formatting

You're a clever chap

 

[Rolfe]

Mutter mutter grumble.... how can we persuade the disaffected LibDems to go SNP in May rather than Labour.... </OT>

Rolfe.

 

[Francesca R]

I'm cleverer:

 

[andyandy]

Anyone any clearer on the proposed boundary changes/changes to number of MPs? Are these going to be bundled in with the AV question? If they are I can't help thinking that they're a Tory poison pill to mitigate any positive benefit from AV to entrench Tory political power.....or is that just being cynical?

 

[Francesca R]

? Boundary changes don't need to be approved by the public. Do they?