Lib Dems beaten into 6th place in Barnsley by-election

[Undesired Walrus]

It's worth noting that the BNP vote actually went down by 2000. Did having a ex military man as Labour's candidate peel off these votes or did they go to UKIP?

Howling Laud Hope's share of the vote went down from where it was in May when he stood in Witney. The Loony Party aint what they used to be. I suggest a change of leader. A cat perhaps.

 

[Francesca R]

It didn't matter who won the last election, the lengths they needed to go to to clear up the previous mess guaranteed they will be unpopular.

The Lib Dems have a large amount of specific unpopularity directed their way for a separate reason; which is that much of their support base was closer to Labour than the Tories (as was the party itself), so their decision to enter government with the Tories is extremely hard for many to stomach.

 

[Vladd]

The Lib Dems have a large amount of specific unpopularity directed their way for a separate reason; which is that much of their support base was closer to Labour than the Tories (as was the party itself), so their decision to enter government with the Tories is extremely hard for many to stomach.

Anything to get power I guess

 

[Keeper]

My argument against AV is that it probably won't make any significant different to the value of my vote in elections and that implementing it would be used as a good reason not to consider any further change towards proper PR in the future because 'we've already changed the system therefore sit down, shut up and continue to have no say in how your country is governed.'

Hadn't considered pro-PR folk might feel like this. Must make the whole exercise of an AV referendum a tad frustrating.

 

[Francesca R]

Anything to get power I guess

Wasn't such a leap for all of them. An unbridgeable divide for many if not most voters though.

 

[stokes234]

People have a short memory, they have already forgotten who left us in the mess that the current government has to fix. It didn't matter who won the last election, the lengths they needed to go to to clear up the previous mess guaranteed they will be unpopular.

You could use that arguement to defend the tuition fee changes (though university funding only made up <0.5% of the budget), but that doesn't fly with the NHS reforms. There is no evidence to say that they will save money, and the transition itself is predicted to cost a few billion. Alot of the tory changes are coming across as ideological, rather than pragmatic.

Monbiots article on some of the quangos that weren't scrapped:
http://www.monbiot.com/2010/10/18/britains-shock-doctrine/#more-1291

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Possible, but rejection of AV can very likely also be used--by parties who will not benefit from it, namely the big two--as a "mandate" not to go down that road again.

I side with that view more than yours.

Which is why I am so p'ed off with Clegg and the LDs on this particular issue because they have put us in a lose lose situation of choosing between no change at all and no meaningful change, neither of which will get us any closer to the system that the LDs claimed to support in their manifesto.

I don't know who the hell to vote for at the next Scottish elections; I can vote for independence and not get it, I can vote for Labour and get public sector trough-guzzling or Tory and get private-sector trough-guzzling, I can vote LD and get nothing or something or the opposite of whatever they tell me they will give me, or I can vote Green and get some sensible ideas wrapped up in a big old blanket of lunancy or Socialist and get some lunatic ideas wrapped up in a big old blanket of even more lunacy.

Or I can stay home and watch Eastenders.

 

[ddt]

A LibDem-Labour recombination could bring Labour back towards the centre,

Looking at the Political Compass, that would only marginally be the case. A re-emergence of Militant would more likely bring Labour back towards the centre.

Hadn't considered pro-PR folk might feel like this. Must make the whole exercise of an AV referendum a tad frustrating.

AV is not PR. For PR, you either need to abolish the district system or, if you want to keep those, adopt the German system.

 

[Darat]

I'm never sure about these things.
Labours turnout dropped by 3000.
In other words it's mostly people not bothering to vote, which doesn't necessarily transfer into a constituency in which the majorities are small.

UKIP is the only party that increased the number of people voting for them, and I doubt they were LibDem voters.

UKIP often picks up unhappy Tories.

 

[Darat]

People have a short memory, they have already forgotten who left us in the mess that the current government has to fix. It didn't matter who won the last election, the lengths they needed to go to to clear up the previous mess guaranteed they will be unpopular.

Yeah all those folks in the USA not paying back their mortgages!

 

[stokes234]

Looking at the Political Compass, that would only marginally be the case. A re-emergence of Militant would more likely bring Labour back towards the centre.

It's probably worth mentioning that the article and graph were drawn up before the election, and the libdems seem to have shifted to the right since then. The U-turn on tuition fees, for example.

 

[ddt]

It's probably worth mentioning that the article and graph were drawn up before the election, and the libdems seem to have shifted to the right since then. The U-turn on tuition fees, for example.

You're maybe not familiar with Militant? My point was that LibDems flocking to Labour would hardly make their policies more centrist as they are already at the right side of the spectrum. That graph says there's only 1 English party that can be considered left-wing, having 1 MP. And it's not Labour. (and I used "English" carefully there).

 

[Mojo]

What i think will happen is a lib dem carve up - seeing the writing on the wall the libdems could well enter into an electoral pact with the Tories - basically splitting the party into its neo-liberal wing and left-wing. The neo-libs will join with the tories and the lefties with labour. ....

I am pretty certain that a large majority of LibDem voters will go with the left. Most of them were to the left of "New Labour".

 

[Francesca R]

It's probably worth mentioning that the article and graph were drawn up before the election, and the libdems seem to have shifted to the right since then. The U-turn on tuition fees, for example.

It's debatable whether state-funded university tuition is "left" or "right" of course. Labour introduced fees and commissioned the report that suggested lifting the cap, but now wants to abolish them. The Tories opposed the introduction of fees in 2004 but is now happy to double them on average. The Lib Dems opposed them and probably still want to. So unless the Tories were left of Labour 7 years ago it is not clear cut.

It can be (and is) easily argued that universal tuition funding redistributes lifetime income from poor to rich, which is not very left-wing.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Voted Yes for Wales yesterday though.

Hooray to a more devolved Wales!

Looking at the Political Compass, that would only marginally be the case. A re-emergence of Militant would more likely bring Labour back towards the centre.

Constantly bemused why people keep using politicalcompass as some kind of authority. Questions like 'do you believe in astrology' made you left/right??

 

[Darat]

Hooray to a more devolved Wales!

The Welsh are devolving? That explains a lot!

 

[Tolls]

Possible, but rejection of AV can very likely also be used--by parties who will not benefit from it, namely the big two--as a "mandate" not to go down that road again.

I side with that view more than yours.

Partly this, for me. And partly because once you've managed to change the voting system you then remove the "it's always been like this, why change" element. It ceases to be untouchable.

The Lib Dems have a large amount of specific unpopularity directed their way for a separate reason; which is that much of their support base was closer to Labour than the Tories (as was the party itself), so their decision to enter government with the Tories is extremely hard for many to stomach.

I never have understood that element of the party. It stands for PR. It is supposedly centrist. And yet it can't envisage partnering with the right of the country, but only the left.

 

[andyandy]

Just thinking - I would wager many a shiny penny that this also signals the death knell of the pro AV camp. Turnout will likely be low - meaning it'll be a poll of the seriously pro-AV and seriously annoyed. And like it or not plenty of people will simply use it as a "sod off" to the lib dems - I'd guess a comprehensive defeat - 60-40%.

 

[Francesca R]

I never have understood that element of the party. It stands for PR. It is supposedly centrist. And yet it can't envisage partnering with the right of the country, but only the left.

Much of the party and its supporters migrated from the Labour party in the first place, so it's quite understandable IMO.

 

[Lothian]

Point of information. They were much worse than decimated (which is to be knocked back by a factor of 10%).

Rolfe.

So it would be true to say that Labour were also decimated