Lib Dems beaten into 6th place in Barnsley by-election

[Undesired Walrus]

The Lib Dems were utterly decimated in the by-election, losing their deposit and coming behind an Independent candidate with no party machine. Not a good omen for the local elections..

*Dan Jarvis (Lab) 14,724
*Jane Collins (UKIP) 2,953
*James Hockney (C) 1,999
*Enis Dalton (BNP) 1,463
*Tony Devoy (Ind) 1,266
*Dominic Carman (LD) 1,012
*Kevin Riddiough (Eng Dem) 544
*Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 198
*Michael Val Davies (Ind) 60

 

[Darat]

Tories and LibDem got a drubbing - I can see LibDem and Conservative MPs with small majorities getting rather nervous. I think everyone was expecting the LibDem's to do badly, but not that badly. The real surprise result is UKIP's showing, that will put a lot more pressure on Cameron from the more right-wing of the party.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

I'm sure there will be a lot of damage control with Lib Dems saying 'there was no way we were going to win anyway' and 'we always expected to come low'. This glosses over the very troubling reality that they dropped from 17.3% to 4.2%.

4%! That makes them a fringe party in Barnsley.

 

[stokes234]

Nice.

 

[andyandy]

The Lib Dems were utterly decimated in the by-election, losing their deposit and coming behind an Independent candidate with no party machine. Not a good omen for the local elections..

*Dan Jarvis (Lab) 14,724
*Jane Collins (UKIP) 2,953
*James Hockney (C) 1,999
*Enis Dalton (BNP) 1,463
*Tony Devoy (Ind) 1,266
*Dominic Carman (LD) 1,012
*Kevin Riddiough (Eng Dem) 544
*Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 198
*Michael Val Davies (Ind) 60

Given that even Nick Clegg would probably lose a re-election if it was held tomorrow, and given how life is going to get a whole lot worse in the coming years, i doubt there'll be many libdem mps in 4 years time.

What i think will happen is a lib dem carve up - seeing the writing on the wall the libdems could well enter into an electoral pact with the Tories - basically splitting the party into its neo-liberal wing and left-wing. The neo-libs will join with the tories and the lefties with labour. ....

it's either that or electoral oblivion.

 

[Tolls]

I'm never sure about these things.
Labours turnout dropped by 3000.
In other words it's mostly people not bothering to vote, which doesn't necessarily transfer into a constituency in which the majorities are small.

UKIP is the only party that increased the number of people voting for them, and I doubt they were LibDem voters.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Be interesting to see how the LD's get on in the forthcoming Scottish Elections. Could be an absolute slaughter. I voted LD at the last general election but think they'd now be 5th or 6th on my list. Not that my general election vote counts anyway.

 

[Rolfe]

Point of information. They were much worse than decimated (which is to be knocked back by a factor of 10%).

Rolfe.

 

[Francesca R]

What i think will happen is a lib dem carve up - seeing the writing on the wall the libdems could well enter into an electoral pact with the Tories - basically splitting the party into its neo-liberal wing and left-wing. The neo-libs will join with the tories and the lefties with labour.

That sounds very plausible, although it is a bit less likely if AV replaces winner-takes-all. If not, it would play to Duverger's law--third parties only exist as long as they are not very relevant, and if they reach a point of relevance they get swallowed by the main two.

A LibDem-Labour recombination could bring Labour back towards the centre, but I doubt it since a fractured party is more likely to cause a polarising influence.

 

[Francesca R]

They were much worse than decimated (which is to be knocked back by a factor of 10%).

Well more sort-of executed/killed/professionally wasted/rubbed out.

Hence its colloquial use implies a harsher result than a 10% decline in support.

 

[Rolfe]

Be interesting to see how the LD's get on in the forthcoming Scottish Elections. Could be an absolute slaughter. I voted LD at the last general election but think they'd now be 5th or 6th on my list. Not that my general election vote counts anyway.

You bring up an interesting point, what with the Scottish elections being so close. I think the LibDems are going to be annihilated. I think the election will be decided by where the bulk of the LibDem voters choose to move to.

I do not have a freaking clue.

Rolfe.

 

[richardm]

I'm sure there will be a lot of damage control with Lib Dems saying 'there was no way we were going to win anyway' and 'we always expected to come low'

To me the most interesting bit is that they did reasonably well in the recent council election - which traditionally is used for beating up unpopular parties - yet in the "This One Matters" MP election they got thrashed. Bodes very badly for them I think.

Edit: No, hang on, I'm thinking about the Oldham East and Saddleworth election, which was for the Commons seat. They didn't do so badly there as they did this time, so perhaps this is a blip. Very low turn out for Barnsley too.

Edit: Didn't do so badly but didn't win it either, so I'm still thinking annihilation is on the cards.

 

[Keeper]

Polls generally not looking good for LDs. Their hopes are resting on 2 things:

1. This Government is economically successful so they can take credit for creating a majority Government and stability

2. That LDs who are currently adopting a 'wait and see' can be brought round. Polls show a larger proportion of LD voters stating 'don't know' in polls much higher than for other parties.

 

[Francesca R]

To me the most interesting bit is that they did reasonably well in the recent council election - which traditionally is used for beating up unpopular parties - yet in the "This One Matters" MP election they got thrashed. Bodes very badly for them I think.

I think that by-elections are used for protest more than local ones actually. Mainly because they don't usually matter, unless the government is in danger of losing its majority.

 

[stokes234]

That sounds very plausible, although it is a bit less likely if AV replaces winner-takes-all. If not, it would play to Duverger's law--third parties only exist as long as they are not very relevant, and if they reach a point of relevance they get swallowed by the main two.

From my limited polling of friends and family, the only good arguement AV that people seem to have is that it would give Nick Clegg something that he wants. Had the libdems not gone back on so many of their words, I probably would have been all in favour of it, even if it hurt labour. But now i'm finding myself in the revenge on clegg camp. I probably just won't vote.

Voted Yes for Wales yesterday though.

 

[Keeper]

Given that even Nick Clegg would probably lose a re-election if it was held tomorrow, and given how life is going to get a whole lot worse in the coming years, i doubt there'll be many libdem mps in 4 years time.

What i think will happen is a lib dem carve up - seeing the writing on the wall the libdems could well enter into an electoral pact with the Tories - basically splitting the party into its neo-liberal wing and left-wing. The neo-libs will join with the tories and the lefties with labour. ....

it's either that or electoral oblivion.

Interesting isn't it? That scenario leaves elements of the Tory party, including some bedrock support, potentially out of kilter with the party. Which is happening already of course - amazing how much criticism Cameron gets from the Telegraph for example and it's because they suspect he is more at home with certain LDs than he is with them.

I'm sure many Tories would feel happier in UKIP but probably don't want to relinquish the chance of power. Unless AV came in and they thought they could become the balance of power?

What Labour want I guess is to win over a few lefty LDs and for the Right to split, ideally before any boundary changes come in.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

From my limited polling of friends and family, the only good arguement AV that people seem to have is that it would give Nick Clegg something that he wants. Had the libdems not gone back on so many of their words, I probably would have been all in favour of it, even if it hurt labour. But now i'm finding myself in the revenge on clegg camp. I probably just won't vote.

Voted Yes for Wales yesterday though.

My argument against AV is that it probably won't make any significant different to the value of my vote in elections and that implementing it would be used as a good reason not to consider any further change towards proper PR in the future because 'we've already changed the system therefore sit down, shut up and continue to have no say in how your country is governed.'

 

[3point14]

Do you think clegg will be remembered as the man who finally killed off the liberal party for good?

 

[Francesca R]

My argument against AV is that it probably won't make any significant different to the value of my vote in elections and that implementing it would be used as a good reason not to consider any further change towards proper PR in the future because 'we've already changed the system therefore sit down, shut up and continue to have no say in how your country is governed.'

Possible, but rejection of AV can very likely also be used--by parties who will not benefit from it, namely the big two--as a "mandate" not to go down that road again.

I side with that view more than yours.

 

[Vladd]

People have a short memory, they have already forgotten who left us in the mess that the current government has to fix. It didn't matter who won the last election, the lengths they needed to go to to clear up the previous mess guaranteed they will be unpopular.