John Edward Sets Off The Baloney Detector

[TLN]

From Carl Sagan's The Fine Art of Baloney Detection.

The reliance on carefully designed and controlled experiments is key, as I tried to stress earlier. We will not learn much from mere contemplation. It is tempting to rest content with the first candidate explanation we can think of. One is much better than none. But what happens if we can invent several? How do we decide among them? We don't. We let experiment do it.

So, why won't Edward (or a host of other mediums for that matter) submit themselves for more scientific testing and study? Even if we were to assume that the Schwartz study was flawless, now it's time for replication. Where is it? Why isn't he participating?

Why isn't Sylvia Browne? Why isn't Lokianarchy, a skeptic, not embracing science?

What do these people have to hide?

 

[tracer]

John Edward Sets Off The Baloney Detector

Least surprising headline of 2003.

 

[TLN]

John Edward Sets Off The Baloney Detector

Least surprising headline of 2003.

Wow! What do I win?

 

[jim_scotti]

So, why won't Edward (or a host of other mediums for that matter) submit themselves for more scientific testing and study? Even if we were to assume that the Schwartz study was flawless, now it's time for replication. Where is it? Why isn't he participating?

Why isn't Sylvia Browne? Why isn't Lokianarchy, a skeptic, not embracing science?

What do these people have to hide? [/B]

Having quoted Carl Sagan, I suspect you already know the answers to your questions. They don't participate in scientific studies because all such a study can do is prove that they are in fact frauds. They resort to the usual mumbo-jumboisms while claiming to do things that they cannot do. Sounds like fraud to me.

JIm.

 

[TLN]

Re: Re: John Edward Sets Off The Baloney Detector

Having quoted Carl Sagan, I suspect you already know the answers to your questions. They don't participate in scientific studies because all such a study can do is prove that they are in fact frauds. They resort to the usual mumbo-jumboisms while claiming to do things that they cannot do. Sounds like fraud to me.

Of course, but I'm interested on the believer's take on this point.

Also, with a ton of conversations raging on Edward on this board, I thought it was about time to point out how worthless they all are.

 

[Thanz]

Well, first of all, if both Edward and Browne can be fully booked up to three years in advance, sell out seminars and in JE's case, sell books and his tv program without any scientific testing, why bother? You ask the question from the standpoint of "If they are telling the truth, what do they have to lose?" when really, perhaps you should consider "What would they have to gain?"

Next, while I do not want to go into the specifics of the Schwartz experiments and whether they have any validity or not, the fact is that JE did agree to be "tested" by someone at a university who claimed to be doing serious research on mediumship. I suppose it is possible that JE could have failed these tests miserably, and then been exposed by Schwartz. I know this contradicts my first point to a degree, but why did JE do even this?

Lastly, it could just be that they don't give a damn whether the scientific or skeptical community believes them or not. They have a large enough following that it certainly doesn't hurt their bankbook.

In essence, it all comes down to a risk/reward analysis. Even if JE thinks that he is for real, the risk that "the spirits aren't talking" or whatever on test day would be too high for the minimal reward.

 

[TLN]

Well, first of all, if both Edward and Browne can be fully booked up to three years in advance, sell out seminars and in JE's case, sell books and his tv program without any scientific testing, why bother? You ask the question from the standpoint of "If they are telling the truth, what do they have to lose?" when really, perhaps you should consider "What would they have to gain?"

So much that's a silly question.

How about being a part of one of the greatest discoveries in human history? Can you see Edward as Time Magazine's Man of the Year? "The Man Who Proved It To Us All."

How about credibility? They could silence us cynical skeptics once and for all. Edward could take his disclaimer off of his show.

Next, while I do not want to go into the specifics of the Schwartz experiments and whether they have any validity or not, the fact is that JE did agree to be "tested" by someone at a university who claimed to be doing serious research on mediumship. I suppose it is possible that JE could have failed these tests miserably, and then been exposed by Schwartz. I know this contradicts my first point to a degree, but why did JE do even this?

He did it because he claims to care about scientific research.

Prove it John. Where's the replication?

 

[Thanz]

So much that's a silly question.

How about being a part of one of the greatest discoveries in human history? Can you see Edward as Time Magazine's Man of the Year? "The Man Who Proved It To Us All."

I disagree. I don't think that it is the kind of thing that can ever be proven, if what we see him do is the result of his "Abilities". If we assume, just for the sake of argument, that he actually does communicate with the dead. Obviously, it is not the same sort of communication that happens with the living - otherwise he could say the sort of things that skeptics say he should ("Barney is here, used to live 123 Any Street, and he says don't worry about the ham sandwich" or whatever).

Therefore, even if we assume he is real, there seems to be a bunch of grey area involved. To put it as shortly and bluntly as I can, I don't think that any amount of JE guessing letters and sitters validitating them is ever going to convince many skeptics - let alone get him credit as part of one of the greatest discoveries of all time or man of the year.

How about credibility? They could silence us cynical skeptics once and for all. Edward could take his disclaimer off of his show.

See above. I don't think he cares about the skeptics that much. Also, the lawyers would not let him take the disclaimer off anyway.

He did it because he claims to care about scientific research.

Prove it John. Where's the replication?

Well, considering the reception that the first shot at scientific research got, I am not surprised that he is not eager to do it again.

 

[TLN]

To put it as shortly and bluntly as I can, I don't think that any amount of JE guessing letters and sitters validitating them is ever going to convince many skeptics - let alone get him credit as part of one of the greatest discoveries of all time or man of the year.

That's simply your prejudice against skeptics. There are tests that could prove Edward was speaking to dead people conclusively. I could be turned around. I want to be turned around.

Waiting...

Well, considering the reception that the first shot at scientific research got, I am not surprised that he is not eager to do it again.

Then next time pick a scientist that will share his data and there won't be a problem.

No experiment, no proof. Simple.

 

[michaellee]

Originally posted by Thanz

In essence, it all comes down to a risk/reward analysis. Even if JE thinks that he is for real, the risk that "the spirits aren't talking" or whatever on test day would be too high for the minimal reward .

You cannot be serious. "the minimal reward"???

TLN stated:

How about being a part of one of the greatest discoveries in human history? Can you see Edward as Time Magazine's Man of the Year? "The Man Who Proved It To Us All."

Do you read posts in their entirety, Thanz?

So far, "the minimal reward" includes:

1. The greatest discovery of mankind in human history.
2. Photo-ops for JE

May I add: JE would never again have to perform those dreary readings. He could, instead, do something actually beneficial to the world like:

3. Tell us where Jimmy Hoffa's body is located.
4. Ask Nicole Simpson who her REAL killer is.
5. Eliminate all criminal trials for murder. JE tells who the killer is, and straight to the chair.
6. Revolutionize life as we know it by revealing "The meaning of life" (assuming that spirits of the dead are privy to this info)
7. Reveal to the world the details, if they exist, of Jesus, God, Heaven and Hell, Satan and the whole religious mantra. Some people may not consider this issue "minimal".
8. Find out if it hurts when you die.
9. Do dead spirits eat or drink? Are they eternal? What about love? Hate? Anger? Sex? Do they age? Where do they reside? Do they sleep?
10. Is Heaven a democracy, autocracy, etc.. If democratic, will my vote be equal to a vote from God?
11. Do all humans that die become spirits? If not, what are the pre-requisites or no-no's we should know about.

 

[Dogwood]

Well let's be fair TLN, who else besides Schwartz, has asked him to be tested? Let's leave aside for the moment open challenges like Randi's. What researchers have asked JE to be tested scientificaly? We can't accuse him of refusing to be tested if no one has asked him to.

 

[TLN]

Well let's be fair TLN, who else besides Schwartz, has asked him to be tested? Let's leave aside for the moment open challenges like Randi's. What researchers have asked JE to be tested scientificaly? We can't accuse him of refusing to be tested if no one has asked him to.

True and fair.

 

[Thanz]

Originally posted by Thanz

You cannot be serious. "the minimal reward"???

TLN stated:

Do you read posts in their entirety, Thanz?

Yes I do. Do you? Is there some sort of distortion in the space-time continuum where you live? I posted my comment regarding minimal reward BEFORE TLN responded to that post with the quote above. I then stated what my opinion of that response was in the very next post.

Before you accuse me of not even reading the posts, perhaps you should get your facts straight.

So far, "the minimal reward" includes:

1. The greatest discovery of mankind in human history.
2. Photo-ops for JE

As I have already stated, I don't think that this would happen. I don't think that mediumship (if all it is is what we see JE doing) will ever be proven to the point of being "the greatest discovery of mankind in human history". I think that the best we would see is that JE scored at a level that was statistically significantly above random chance. Those results would then be debated until the cows come home as to what they actually MEAN.

May I add: JE would never again have to perform those dreary readings. He could, instead, do something actually beneficial to the world like:

3. Tell us where Jimmy Hoffa's body is located.
4. Ask Nicole Simpson who her REAL killer is.
5. Eliminate all criminal trials for murder. JE tells who the killer is, and straight to the chair.
6. Revolutionize life as we know it by revealing "The meaning of life" (assuming that spirits of the dead are privy to this info)
7. Reveal to the world the details, if they exist, of Jesus, God, Heaven and Hell, Satan and the whole religious mantra. Some people may not consider this issue "minimal".
8. Find out if it hurts when you die.
9. Do dead spirits eat or drink? Are they eternal? What about love? Hate? Anger? Sex? Do they age? Where do they reside? Do they sleep?
10. Is Heaven a democracy, autocracy, etc.. If democratic, will my vote be equal to a vote from God?
11. Do all humans that die become spirits? If not, what are the pre-requisites or no-no's we should know about.

I think that a lot of these are just crap. It is lists like these that probably make people like Neo think that skeptics are disappointed in the messages from the "other side". What makes you think, for example, that JE can find out anything like where Jimmy Hoffa was buried? I can talk to the living. That doesn't mean I can find out where Bill Gates puts all of his money by giving him a call.

I don't know why you assume that if one can comminicate with the dead in any fashion that they should be able to do whatever it is you want them to do. This is a faulty assumption. I don't think that anyone who claims to talk to the dead has claimed to be able to do the things that you list. If they could, then maybe they would.

People who claim to talk to the dead, like JE, simply claim that the stuff that we see them do is real. If we assume that what we see is the peak of their abilities, proving that it is an ability rather than a trick will not suddenly open the doors to the things you list.

 

[Thanz]

That's simply your prejudice against skeptics. There are tests that could prove Edward was speaking to dead people conclusively. I could be turned around. I want to be turned around.

Waiting...

I am not prejudiced against skeptics. I am not sure that there are tests that could prove that JE was talking to the dead conclusively. I admit that I have not followed all of the debates on test design in this area, however. Can you give me a short paragraph on a test that would do this?

Then next time pick a scientist that will share his data and there won't be a problem.

No experiment, no proof. Simple.

I do not want to get into the whole scwhartz data sharing thing again. However, I don't think that Schwartz's data sharing policy should be used against JE. From what I understand, the problem is with Schwartz, not JE, and it wasn't JE that picked the scientist anyway.

 

[neofight]

I think that the best we would see is that JE scored at a level that was statistically significantly above random chance. Those results would then be debated until the cows come home as to what they actually MEAN.

I think you are probably correct on that, Thanz.

I think that a lot of these are just crap. It is lists like these that probably make people like Neo think that skeptics are disappointed in the messages from the "other side". What makes you think, for example, that JE can find out anything like where Jimmy Hoffa was buried? I can talk to the living. That doesn't mean I can find out where Bill Gates puts all of his money by giving him a call.

I don't know why you assume that if one can comminicate with the dead in any fashion that they should be able to do whatever it is you want them to do. This is a faulty assumption. I don't think that anyone who claims to talk to the dead has claimed to be able to do the things that you list. If they could, then maybe they would.

People who claim to talk to the dead, like JE, simply claim that the stuff that we see them do is real. If we assume that what we see is the peak of their abilities, proving that it is an ability rather than a trick will not suddenly open the doors to the things you list.

This is so cool, you have no idea! A skeptic who doesn't, himself, believe that JE is a medium, yet is able to argue from the perspective of "but if he is doing what he says he is doing.....", remembers specific points that believers make, and who makes them, and the best yet, even concedes that their points may be valid. Thanz, you have made my day! Thank you! ......neo

 

[Diamond]

Because "psychics" exist in the grey area between scientific fact and people's innermost beliefs. And they make a lot of money staying there.

 

[Darat]

...snip...

As I have already stated, I don't think that this would happen. I don't think that mediumship (if all it is is what we see JE doing) will ever be proven to the point of being "the greatest discovery of mankind in human history". I think that the best we would see is that JE scored at a level that was statistically significantly above random chance. Those results would then be debated until the cows come home as to what they actually MEAN.

...snip...

Your comment seems to be that you are pre-judging the outcome of any results and then using your "pre-judgment" to follow to a conclusion?

"The best we..." - how do you know this? Why shouldn't the results be completely "off the scale" if JE can communicate with the dead?

...snip...

I think that a lot of these are just crap. It is lists like these that probably make people like Neo think that skeptics are disappointed in the messages from the "other side". What makes you think, for example, that JE can find out anything like where Jimmy Hoffa was buried? I can talk to the living. That doesn't mean I can find out where Bill Gates puts all of his money by giving him a call.

...snip...

Using your analogy - surely Bill Gates knows where his money is?

If JE can communicate and receive the information he claims he can then many of the points in the list should be possible. If JE can do what he claims he can.

...snip...

I don't know why you assume that if one can comminicate with the dead in any fashion that they should be able to do whatever it is you want them to do. This is a faulty assumption. I don't think that anyone who claims to talk to the dead has claimed to be able to do the things that you list. If they could, then maybe they would.

...snip...

Many of the people (to broaden out from JE) who claim they can communicate to the dead do claim they can, for instance, diagnose illnesses, find deceased people and so on.

I would also disagree about the relevance of a list like this - I think these list do demonstrate some of the consequences that follow from being able to communicate with the dead that many believers just don’t seem to address.

 

[Zep]

You are all making way too much of a very simple situation. JE doesn't give a rat's ass about the past or the future or the spirit world or whatever.

THIS, in the here-and-now, is what it is all about...

 

[Thanz]

You are all making way too much of a very simple situation. JE doesn't give a rat's ass about the past or the future or the spirit world or whatever.

THIS, in the here-and-now, is what it is all about...

I am shocked at you Zep. How can you think JE would stoop so low? Don't you think he is more about this:

 

[Zep]

Indeed, Thanz! Great bunches of the same.

(I don't have any of those myself that I could scan, you see.)

All of JE's antics and thinking completely revolves around the moolah first and only. He has already demonstrated that he has no scruples whatsoever by ripping off crowds of grieving folk for huge fees. I strongly suspect if there was more money to be made in, say, selling his own lemonade by the side of the road, he would do that instead. So the money is king, nothing else. He is, quite literally, laughing all the way to the bank.

Thus the answer as to why he won't go for any genuine challenges of a scientific nature is that they have the possibility of cutting off his income flow, and the JREF's million is nowhere near big enough to compensate him for that. That's it, end of story.