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Jogging in Georgia while black.

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Thermal said:
Dropping off the childish taunts for the moment: do you think that is a plausible reading of events and available information? If not, why not?
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It is not outlandish or absurd, but I think it is a barely plausible reading of the events. If he were strong and confident, I think he would have initiated a confrontation earlier.

I think more likely he was annoyed and perhaps somewhat fearful, but thought it was unlikely that they would actually assault him in broad daylight, so he just tried to avoid them, not in a fearful way as, "I need to get the hell out of here before these guys kill me", but in a more nervous, "I don't know what these jackasses are up to and I really don't want to find out."

And each time they cut him off, I'll bet that the anxiety grew.

By the time he saw the gun, I think it was a "fight or flight" moment, and he chose fight.
 
Meadmaker said:
It is not outlandish or absurd, but I think it is a barely plausible reading of the events. If he were strong and confident, I think he would have initiated a confrontation earlier.
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Star witness Roddy said Arbery did just that. Said he tried to get into one of the trucks.

I think more likely he was annoyed and perhaps somewhat fearful, but thought it was unlikely that they would actually assault him in broad daylight, so he just tried to avoid them, not in a fearful way as, "I need to get the hell out of here before these guys kill me", but in a more nervous, "I don't know what these jackasses are up to and I really don't want to find out."

And each time they cut him off, I'll bet that the anxiety grew.

By the time he saw the gun, I think it was a "fight or flight" moment, and he chose fight.
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i've asked this before: look at the video. See all that wooded cover on either side of the road? Think Arbery didn't see it?

Have you ever run from police cars (hopefully as a kid)? You. Get. Off. The. Road. If you stay diddy bopping around on the asphalt, you're not afraid, or tying to escape. You're ******* with them.
 
Thermal said:
See above, or read the last two pages. A poster asserted Arbery was "exhausted from running for his life". I noted that he hadn't run far, and had a lot of time to do so, relatively. This seems more a low-speed conflict.

Upthread, the NYT posted a map of the distance covered and the back-and-forth route taken. It wasn't far, like a couple football fields total. That's barely a walking pace, as another poster noted. To throw the contrast more starkly, I said that a serious runner could drop a mile in like 4 minutes, so a couple hundred yards in 8 minutes indicated slow moving, even allowing for back and forth juking.

Then everyone went ape **** about 4 minute miles.
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Because your whole assertion here is nothing but a load of complete BS.

Arbery was an outside linebacker in American Football at High School.... linebackers get nowhere near dropping four minute miles!
 
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smartcooky said:
Because your whole assertion here is nothing but a load of complete BS.

Arbery was an outside linebacker in American Football at High School.... linebackers get nowhere near dropping four minute miles!
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This is precious.

Psst...Arbery wasn't a 17 yr old high school football player anymore; he was a 25 yr old runner, as we are told. What do you picture every teenybopper lineman in high school to be anyway, like 300lbs or something? He was a kid.

Btw, that you are handwaving the actual argument and harping on irrelevant trivialities is telling.
 
arthwollipot said:
If you say so. I don't see a lot of evidence on either side.

I guess that's what criminal trials are for, right?
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Absolutely, and I hope they never breathe free air again.

Still, I think it's fun and a good exercise to try to piece things together and test them out.
 
Thermal said:
Star witness Roddy said Arbery did just that. Said he tried to get into one of the trucks.



i've asked this before: look at the video. See all that wooded cover on either side of the road? Think Arbery didn't see it?

Have you ever run from police cars (hopefully as a kid)? You. Get. Off. The. Road. If you stay diddy bopping around on the asphalt, you're not afraid, or tying to escape. You're ******* with them.
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Choosing "fight" in a "fight or flight" scenario doesn't mean you aren't afraid.

However, I would agree that he did not spend seven minutes (or however long it was) frightened and hounded until he was finally trapped and had no choice but to make a desperate grab for a weapon.



I haven't followed the case enough to really say more about it, or even to know if my impression is correct. I guess I'm not interested enough to really try to find out more, either, for the reasons you have already articulated. It's still murder. That is, unless there's some big bombshell revelation to be revealed later.
 
Thermal said:
The argument is that he was running for his life in fear of being shot and run over. I don't think anyone would have the luxury of rationing out how quickly they got the hell out of there.
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Depends on how "serious" a runner he was. In my experience of "serious" runners, they're very knowledgeable about how far they can run and at what pace.

Thermal said:
I am specifically not saying "200 yards", and using the more imprecise "couple football fields", because the upthread map is only loosely scaled. I'm also confident it would not have been a consistent pace, with stopping and turning around to whittle the average rate down, which accounts for the time lags.
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For a sustained eight-minute effort, the expected distance would be several times your vague speculation.

This supports the prosecution story that this was a deadly game of "hide and seek" in which a truckful of vigilantes hunted down and killed someone over an extended period of time while that person was desperately trying to escape them knowing that simply running away wouldn't work because they're in a pickup.

Thermal said:
But I do think it shows that this was no frantic sprint for survival. He was toying with them, I think, and staying +/- on their asphalt turf.
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Ah, bending the facts and filling in the gaps to meet your own narrative - how surprising :rolleyes:
 
Thermal said:
This is precious.

Psst...Arbery wasn't a 17 yr old high school football player anymore; he was a 25 yr old runner, as we are told. What do you picture every teenybopper lineman in high school to be anyway, like 300lbs or something? He was a kid.

Btw, that you are handwaving the actual argument and harping on irrelevant trivialities is telling.
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No, he's being portrayed as a 25 year old who was a regular runner who had played linebacker in high school. Unless something extraordinary happened after highschool, he would likely still have the same underlying attributes which would likely lead to him being picked in that position, physical size, high muscle mass and good fast twitch muscles - none of which would help him as a distance runner.

I was a 35 year old who was a regular runner and I was 6'2" and close to 200 lbs. That's pretty chonky for anyone who has any aspirations to be a decent long distance runner.

In the last 20 years I've lost 40lbs or so but even at 6'2" and 155-160lbs I'm still a fatty-boom-boom compared to even the fast men in the local running club, much less professional distance athletes.

That's not to say that there aren't some pretty heavyset people who run good marathon times, but the rule of thumb is that every pound you are over your ideal running weight (whatever that is for you) will cost you around 2 seconds a mile all other things being equal. Despite being 20 years older, my distance running pace is around 1 minute a mile quicker than it was back then.
 
Thermal said:
OK. Specifically, now: what was I wrong about?
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You have got to be kidding me.

Near as I can tell, my statement was 100% accurate, and confirmed by several other posters.
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Did you wake up with a wiped memory, or something? I repeat: finding one human that can do X does not support a claim that "humans do X all the time", for example. Your claim wasn't that "there are very few people who can do it in 4", but "actual runners can do it in 4 ergo the victim was not seriously running away". Not only is the claim wrong, the inferrence is nonsense.
 
Thermal said:
The competing theory requires more filling in the blanks. Occam has my back.
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Said every woo proponent ever.

No, there are exactly as many blanks in the facts regardless of who's theorising. Sheesh, you've basically been broken rhetorically because of a simple failure to adjust a silly claim.

It says a lot about you.
 
Didn't they hit him with the car hard enough to leave a mark on the car at one time? Doesn't sound like just a leisurely drive and walk around the neighbourhood to me.
 
arthwollipot said:
I'm just wondering what any of this has to do with the fact that someone was murdered.
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It makes a great distraction and moved the discussion from the murderers actions to the victims failures to perform to proper expectations of any black man.
 
Thermal said:
But I do think it shows that this was no frantic sprint for survival. He was toying with them, I think, and staying +/- on their asphalt turf.
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You've been quite critical of others making leaps of logic here, but your repeated assertion that Arbery was somehow trying to stick it to these CHUDs deliberately is one hell of a whopper.

I can think of a lot of more plausible explanations why someone being menaced in public might stick to public roads and not sprint off to a secluded area, and "toying" with his pursuers strikes me as especially implausible.

Perhaps Arbery thought he would be safer if he stayed in the public eye, perhaps he thought his pursuers would leave him alone if he continued his jog and ignored them, perhaps he thought others would see the situation and intervene on his behalf. Perhaps he thought the police may be on there way and hopefully defuse the situation.

All these explanations strike me as much more plausible than the idea that he was slowly jogging around "their turf" as some display of dominance. That somehow, the unarmed jogger being pursued by two separate chase vehicles that were steadily escalating the violence felt that he was in control of the situation, strikes me as patently absurd.
 
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ponderingturtle said:
It makes a great distraction and moved the discussion from the murderers actions to the victims failures to perform to proper expectations of any black man.
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Yep. Usain Bolt could run 100 m in less than 10 s. Why couldn't this guy just sprint away like Bolt would?
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
You've been quite critical of others making leaps of logic here, but your repeated assertion that Arbery was somehow trying to stick it to these CHUDs deliberately is one hell of a whopper.

I can think of a lot of more plausible explanations why someone being menaced in public might stick to public roads and not sprint off to a secluded area, and "toying" with his pursuers strikes me as especially implausible.

Perhaps Arbery thought he would be safer if he stayed in the public eye, perhaps he thought his pursuers would leave him alone if he continued his jog and ignored them, perhaps he thought others would see the situation and intervene on his behalf. Perhaps he thought the police may be on there way and hopefully defuse the situation.

All these explanations strike me as much more plausible than the idea that he was slowly jogging around "their turf" as some display of dominance. That somehow, the unarmed jogger being pursued by two separate chase vehicles that were steadily escalating the violence felt that he was in control of the situation, strikes me as patently absurd.
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Arbery could have run through the yards to get off the street, and then he would have been shot for trespassing and the same people would be excusing it here, saying, "He should have just stayed on the public streets."
 
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