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Intelligent Design & the tapeworm?

Pretty much.

One of my co-posters on the CreationTalk forum recently posted this rebuttal to Dembski's Universal Probability Bound. In case you don't know, this is the probability at which Dembski rules out the possibility of chance.

One unexpected consequence of the Universal Probability Bound is that beyond a certain point, ordinary playing cards cease to be random and become wholly deterministic. This may seem absurd, but you can easily confirm it yourself.

Take two standard 52-card decks, shuffle them together, and deal out the entire combined deck. The resulting sequence of 104 cards will have a probability of 1 / (104!), or about 9.71 * 10 ^ -167. Since this is less than the Universal Probability Bound of 10 ^ -150, it is clear than the 104-card sequence you dealt "cannot reasonably be attributed to chance regardless of whatever probabilitistic resources from the known universe are factored in". In fact, the Universal Probability Bound indicates that no card-sequence of at least 96 cards can be attributed to chance; a 96-card sequence has a probability of about 1.01 * 10 ^ -150, and any greater number of cards must necessarily result in a less-probable sequence. Since the probability for any 95-card sequence is about 9.86 * 10 ^ -149, which is greater than the Universal Probability Bound, and smaller numbers of cards will necessarily yield more-probable sequences, it follows that any number of cards below 96 will behave randomly, as you expect them to.

As no card game uses decks with 96 or more cards, the deterministic nature of decks with 96+ cards need not concern aficianados of bridge, poker, etc. Since a pinochle deck has 48 cards in it, one might suppose that double-deck pinochle would run afoul of the Universal Probability Bound; fortunately, double-deck pinochle discards the 9s, thereby bringing its deck-size down to a sensibly random 80 cards.

I think this sums up the problems with Intelligent Design quite well (except for the fact that Canasta is played with two full decks, plus Jokers), by demonstrating that any sequence of 96 or more cards perforce is not random, but has to have been designed.
 
arthwollipot said:
Pretty much.

One of my co-posters on the CreationTalk forum recently posted this rebuttal to Dembski's Universal Probability Bound. In case you don't know, this is the probability at which Dembski rules out the possibility of chance.

I think this sums up the problems with Intelligent Design quite well (except for the fact that Canasta is played with two full decks, plus Jokers), by demonstrating that any sequence of 96 or more cards perforce is not random, but has to have been designed.
Thank you. I took statistics. I strugled with it. I'm having a difficult time grasping the concpet and it seems counter intuitive. Is there by chance a layman's explanation? I don't remember "probability bound". I remember the infinite monkey theorem.

In any event Dembski's argument seems counter intuitive. I'll have to study the argument and the rebutal just to get my head around both.

It sucks not getting this stuff so easily. It's easy to see why appeal to authority is so tempting.
 
Universal Probability Bound

A degree of improbability below which a specified event of that probability cannot reasonably be attributed to chance regardless of whatever probabilitistic resources from the known universe are factored in. Universal probability bounds have been estimated anywhere between 10^–50 (Emile Borel) and 10^–150 (William Dembski).
 
But it does mean that the statement "this is impossible" is wrong.

You cannot claim that it is impossible for a bombardier beetle to have evolved its defence mechanism when you have been shown one scenario by which it is possible. Again, it does not mean that the scenario is "the" way that it occurred, but it does demonstrate that it is not impossible<<<<

This is flawed logic. I can come up with a scenario in which warp travel will take place amongst the stars. Just the fact I can come up with a scenario doesn't mean it's not still impossible. Warp travel might just be impossible but we just don't know it yet. I think your scenario for the beetle is impossible. There just isn't anyway to prove it to you.
 
I think this sums up the problems with Intelligent Design quite well (except for the fact that Canasta is played with two full decks, plus Jokers), by demonstrating that any sequence of 96 or more cards perforce is not random, but has to have been designed.<<<<<

The cards mean nothing. You are taking a very finite set that is only delusionally random in any fashion to start with and then when you suddenly discover that it is actually a ordered set you go "eureka!".

The universe has virtually infinite variables all of which would have to come into alignment with precision, at a precise time and place all by accident. This has nothing in common with a deck of cards in the slightest.
 
Is that really what happened? I have no idea. I do know that a fully formed spinnerett would not be necessary to start making use out of thread spinning. A partially formed spinnerett would still do something useful for the spider.

My objection to ID as a "scientific" theory is that it is, as someone else has already said, an argument from ignorance. I can't see why this is useful, therefore it is not useful. If the ID people could somehow prove that transitional forms were non-existent or useless, then they would have something, but they can't do that. All they can say is either, "we haven't found transitional forms" or "we're pretty sure that the transitional form is useless" At best, it's a hypothesis looking for experimental evidence, not a theory at all.<<<<<

Yeah, it's possible if you imbue prehistoric spiders with intellect that exceeds that of most current human beings. This to me is far more far fetched than just assuming creation.

I think it's more than a theory for me to assume that spiders can't repair lawn mowers, or anything else for that matter. You are making a far greater leap assuming a spider or any other form of life short of modern humans could look at it's nest and figure out anything by it. Or suddenly it will just have goo coming out of it's butt and just accidently put it anyplace useful, or that this would get passed on to any other spiders, in what possible manner? Spider school I suppose? You cannot have "transisitional" stages unless you are going someplace that is planned. How could the organ possibly know what it is transisitioning into? What you propose is utterly impossible.
 
Vagabond said:
What you propose is utterly impossible.

You speak with a confidence that is not justified by your knowledge.

Don't take that personally, the complete knowledge of the world's biologists is not enough to make this statement.

And that is my problem with Intelligent Design. We simply don't know enough to make a claim that evolution is impossible.

To be fair to the creationists and ID crowd, we do not, in fact, have enough knowledge to prove, in any meaningful way, that evolution really happened.

Before anyone jumps on that, let me explain what I mean. I am certainly not using the usual "it's only a theory" line.

I cannot prove that a Daspletosaurus evolved into a Tyrannousaurus, or that chimps and humans share a common ancestor. I wasn't there. Neither was anyone else.

What I can prove is that if those things were true, if evolution happened, if chimps and humans shared a common ancestor, etc, that the world would look pretty much exactly like it looks. If I go about and examine rocks, fossils, and living organisms, they look the way they would look if they evolved. In fact, it looks so much the way it would look if evolution were true, that I can assume evolution is true, and use that to make useful and accurate predictions about things I've never looked at before. To put it differently, the theory of evolution makes predictions about the world, and those predictions can be verified by observation and test.

Does that mean that evolution really is true? Technically, no. However, it does mean that it explains everything we know, and that there is nothing that we can observe that contradicts the theory.

ID proponents disagree. They say that certain organs demonstrate "irreducible complexity". I think they are wrong. At best, what those organs have is "complexity we haven't reduced yet". In other words, no biologist has studied that particular organ and come up with an explanation for that specific bit of the evolutionary puzzle.

But I'm up for a challenge, Vagabond. Not being a biologist, I don't know if I can do it, but hey, it's only a message board. Give me one organ on one organism that you think could not have evolved, and I'll come up with a similar organ that would be useful to a similar creature, and that could change into the current organ with a very, very, minor change, possibly a single mutation. For example, if you said a spinneret of a spider, I wouldn't trace the evolution of the spinneret from the primordial soup to the modern arachnid, but I would show something that is not a spinneret, but is useful to a spider, and could become a spinneret with a very, very simple modification.

Or I might not be able to do it. After all, I'm a programmer who does this in his spare time. I just can't resist the challenge.
 
But I'm up for a challenge, Vagabond. Not being a biologist, I don't know if I can do it, but hey, it's only a message board. Give me one organ on one organism that you think could not have evolved, and I'll come up with a similar organ that would be useful to a similar creature, and that could change into the current organ with a very, very, minor change, possibly a single mutation. For example, if you said a spinneret of a spider, I wouldn't trace the evolution of the spinneret from the primordial soup to the modern arachnid, but I would show something that is not a spinneret, but is useful to a spider, and could become a spinneret with a very, very simple modification.

Or I might not be able to do it. After all, I'm a programmer who does this in his spare time. I just can't resist the challenge.<<<<

First of all I never said evolution is impossible. It is a given that evolution does take place. I said your version of evolution that requires high level thought from both spiders and their transistioning organs was impossible. My argument is there are some things too complex to be the result of randomness. Your challenge is pointless I have already said the stages mean nothing. You can come up with a scenario where anything transitions to anything but you are just taking the intelligence of the design and transferring it from a creator to spiders. Whatever makes you feel better. You won't even answer the basic question brought up by myself. You keep dodging it because you have no answer. Without one you are just talking out your ass.
 
On this thread you seem to be the expert on talking out of your ass. I certainly do not understand evolution as well as I should, but your understanding of how evolution functions is woefully inadequate for you to be positing with such arrogance. Further, for you to arbitrarily assign what does or does not having meaning in this thread is both reductive and egotistic.

As pointed out from others, you are arguing from ignorance, and now you are also moving the goal posts. Creationists have argued that evolution did not work because there were no transitional stages, and then credible scientists discover fossils like Ambulocetus. So now the argument is that transition does not matter? You, sir, are the one who is dodging here.
 
Arthwollipot said:
I think this sums up the problems with Intelligent Design quite well (except for the fact that Canasta is played with two full decks, plus Jokers), by demonstrating that any sequence of 96 or more cards perforce is not random, but has to have been designed.
Careful now. What Dembski says about a sequence of 96 or more cards is that it could not have fallen together by chance juxtaposition of random cards. It still may have come together by some other naturalistic means, although we happen to know it did not, because we shuffled and dealt the cards. So the sequence is "complex."

In order to be designed, it also has to be "specified," resulting in complex specified information. I've had a hard time coming to grips with what specified means. I think something is specified if its pattern is independent of the specific event. Dembski does a lot of hand-waving in No Free Lunch:
Here is the idea. An event has occurred. A pattern describing the event is given. The event is one from a range of possible events. If all we knew was the range of possible events without any specifics about which event actually occurred (e.g., we know that tomorrows's weather will be rain or shine, but we do not know which), could we still identify the pattern describing the event? If so, the pattern is detachable from the event.

Is a random sequence of 96 cards specified? You tell me. If it is, then the sequence exhibits CSI, I guess.

~~ Paul
 
Wait, I think we have the usual problem here. The probability of dealing a specified sequence of 96 cards is indeed below the universal probability bound. The probability of dealing any sequence of 96 cards is 1.

~~ Paul
 
But I'm up for a challenge, Vagabond. Not being a biologist, I don't know if I can do it, but hey, it's only a message board. Give me one organ on one organism that you think could not have evolved, and I'll come up with a similar organ that would be useful to a similar creature, and that could change into the current organ with a very, very, minor change, possibly a single mutation.

First up, I'm not a flaming proponent of ID. It's interesting to me, but that's as far as it goes at the moment. Evolution is also very interesting to me, but again I don't take it much past the speculation. Theories are wonderful, but I'm glad I don't live there.

You mention the challenge. One of the best arguments I've see is (Behe or Bebe?) on blood-clotting. It's in the book "Darwin's Black Box," I can't remember the guy's name and I'm too lazy atm to browse my library. In short, a chemical reaction occurs when flesh is torn and some part of the blood comes in contact with oxygen in the outside air. According to evolution, that part evolved over time, with creatures who bled out not being able to reproduce VS. creatures who magically mutated a RNA sequence to clot were able to survive and reproduce. I'm already choking up.

On top of the magical mutation, Behe or Bebe (I swear the guy must not have made that big of an impression on me to forget his name) notes that a counter-clotting mechanism also developed. Basically, the blood stops clotting at the absence of the oxygen trigger due to the release of another RNA sequence that tells the blood to stop clotting.

So can you imagine the newly evolved super-species from RNA sequence in change ONE suddenly finding that ALL HIS BLOOD CLOTTED and now must reproduce in the few short seconds of life he had left in order for a chance mutation of his genepool that taught his future offspring to stop the clotting process before he totally dried up? Simultaneous gene mutations on different RNA sequences and living long enough to reproduce?

It's a bit farfetched to me, but then again I'm a person of faith, so faith in far-fetched is fine with me. It's just how far I have to go to fetch the truth. It's obvious which way I lean, so sue me.

Flick
 
Do you have "faith" that the sun will shine tomorrow? That doesn't sound too far-fetched does it? :D ... yet it is faith nonetheless.
 
stamenflicker said:
First up, I'm not a flaming proponent of ID. It's interesting to me, but that's as far as it goes at the moment. Evolution is also very interesting to me, but again I don't take it much past the speculation. Theories are wonderful, but I'm glad I don't live there.

You do know that "gravity" is a theory? But I bet you're glad to live "there"! ;)

stamenflicker said:

You mention the challenge. One of the best arguments I've see is (Behe or Bebe?) on blood-clotting. It's in the book "Darwin's Black Box," I can't remember the guy's name and I'm too lazy atm to browse my library. In short, a chemical reaction occurs when flesh is torn and some part of the blood comes in contact with oxygen in the outside air. According to evolution, that part evolved over time, with creatures who bled out not being able to reproduce VS. creatures who magically mutated a RNA sequence to clot were able to survive and reproduce. I'm already choking up.

What's so preposterous about such a reaction evolving over time? I suspect your problem arises because you have a misconception e.g. somehow a creature evolved a blood circulation system and then and only then could and did evolve a clotting mechanism. Now that would seem rather unlikely but then that is not what the theory of evolution says would happen.

And what is "magical" about mutation? It is a fact that as cells divide, mutations happen and it’s a fact that if cells are “assaulted” then mutations occur.

stamenflicker said:

On top of the magical mutation, Behe or Bebe (I swear the guy must not have made that big of an impression on me to forget his name) notes that a counter-clotting mechanism also developed. Basically, the blood stops clotting at the absence of the oxygen trigger due to the release of another RNA sequence that tells the blood to stop clotting.

So can you imagine the newly evolved super-species from RNA sequence in change ONE suddenly finding that ALL HIS BLOOD CLOTTED and now must reproduce in the few short seconds of life he had left in order for a chance mutation of his genepool that taught his future offspring to stop the clotting process before he totally dried up? Simultaneous gene mutations on different RNA sequences and living long enough to reproduce?

It's a bit farfetched to me, but then again I'm a person of faith, so faith in far-fetched is fine with me. It's just how far I have to go to fetch the truth. It's obvious which way I lean, so sue me.

Flick

You really have misunderstood the evolutionary process you seem to think it is something like a check list that proceeds in a linear fashion from one “completed” step to the next. You seem willing to read books about this so I would recommend Ernst Mayr’s “What Evolution Is” ( http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...103-6966757-5080635?v=glance&s=books&n=507846 )

Until you actually understand what the theory of evolution is you will probably keep making the same error. What your opinion above is normally referred to as a “strawman”. (“ …The Straw Man is a type of Red Herring because the arguer is attempting to refute his opponent's position, and in the context is required to do so, but instead attacks a position—the "straw man"—not held by his opponent..” – see: http://www.fallacyfiles.org/strawman.html .)

Until you get a better grasp on what the theory of evolution is and predicts you will probably keep making the same error.


(Edited for words and formatting.)
 
Stamen said:
You mention the challenge. One of the best arguments I've see is (Behe or Bebe?) on blood-clotting. It's in the book "Darwin's Black Box," I can't remember the guy's name and I'm too lazy atm to browse my library. In short, a chemical reaction occurs when flesh is torn and some part of the blood comes in contact with oxygen in the outside air. According to evolution, that part evolved over time, with creatures who bled out not being able to reproduce VS. creatures who magically mutated a RNA sequence to clot were able to survive and reproduce. I'm already choking up.
To continue with Darat's point, consider that not every organism has the same blood clotting cascade, implying that it evolved in stages or perhaps independently. It's not an all-or-nothing matter.

Dolphins, for example, have one fewer cascade stages than humans.

~~ Paul
 
Vagabond

Yeah, it's possible if you imbue prehistoric spiders with intellect that exceeds that of most current human beings. This to me is far more far fetched than just assuming creation.
Now this is an attempted straw man that doesn’t even deserve the name.

Or suddenly it will just have goo coming out of it's butt and just accidently put it anyplace useful, or that this would get passed on to any other spiders, in what possible manner? Spider school I suppose? You cannot have "transisitional" stages unless you are going someplace that is planned.
Stupidity this time. It’s already been told where all the transitional changes are going, or at least attempting to go – enhance survival ability.

How could the organ possibly know what it is transisitioning into? What you propose is utterly impossible.
Declaring something doesn’t make it so. Again, already explained, your embrace of stupidity is growing stronger.

First of all I never said evolution is impossible. It is a given that evolution does take place. I said your version of evolution that requires high level thought from both spiders and their transistioning organs was impossible.
I’ll bite. What is your version of evolution?

Ossai
 
I appreciated your post Dr.A, however taken to its logical conclusion it seemingly contradicts something I (somewhat vaguely) remember from The selfish gene (or perhaps another of Dawkins' books) - specifically that strains of flu virus tend to evolve so as to be less virulent (at least in terms of symptoms we register) over time.

In this manner (using the same loosness of language that Dawkins does) they keep the host alive longer, and thus infect more hosts. I guess the point is that only a small number of viruses infect any new host, and thus a large parameter space of "virulity" can be explored until an optimum is found...
 
Iacchus said:
Do you have "faith" that the sun will shine tomorrow? That doesn't sound too far-fetched does it? :D ... yet it is faith nonetheless.
Faith that the sun will shine tomorrow is based on objective observation and experience. Faith in god is blind and based on subjective criteria. There is a world of difference.
 
RandFan said:
Faith that the sun will shine tomorrow is based on objective observation and experience. Faith in god is blind and based on subjective criteria. There is a world of difference.
And why it so necessary to spell it out in absolute terms? Because you have faith in your beliefs that God doesn't exist? There's a world of difference there you see. Are you saying God can never exist, merely because you don't believe He does?
 
RandFan said:
Excellent site (Irriducible Grotesqueness). Thank you. Just one problem. I don't get it. Is the argument that an inteligent designer wouldn't make grotesque creatures?

Yup. Beautiful sarcasm taking ID to the next level. Obviously, if ID is true, the kind, loving God must have wanted flies eating at the eyes of babies, etc. Nice God, there.

Of course, Mark Twain did it beautifully a century ago. I forget the exact quote, but it's something like "Even if I were heard hearted enough to throw a dog into a fire, upon hearing it's whimper, I couldn't help but pull it back out again." Implying God not only throws the dog in, but, even more heard hearted, stands there while it whines and screams and dies.
 

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