arthwollipot
Limerick Purist Pronouns: He/Him
Pretty much.
One of my co-posters on the CreationTalk forum recently posted this rebuttal to Dembski's Universal Probability Bound. In case you don't know, this is the probability at which Dembski rules out the possibility of chance.
I think this sums up the problems with Intelligent Design quite well (except for the fact that Canasta is played with two full decks, plus Jokers), by demonstrating that any sequence of 96 or more cards perforce is not random, but has to have been designed.
One of my co-posters on the CreationTalk forum recently posted this rebuttal to Dembski's Universal Probability Bound. In case you don't know, this is the probability at which Dembski rules out the possibility of chance.
One unexpected consequence of the Universal Probability Bound is that beyond a certain point, ordinary playing cards cease to be random and become wholly deterministic. This may seem absurd, but you can easily confirm it yourself.
Take two standard 52-card decks, shuffle them together, and deal out the entire combined deck. The resulting sequence of 104 cards will have a probability of 1 / (104!), or about 9.71 * 10 ^ -167. Since this is less than the Universal Probability Bound of 10 ^ -150, it is clear than the 104-card sequence you dealt "cannot reasonably be attributed to chance regardless of whatever probabilitistic resources from the known universe are factored in". In fact, the Universal Probability Bound indicates that no card-sequence of at least 96 cards can be attributed to chance; a 96-card sequence has a probability of about 1.01 * 10 ^ -150, and any greater number of cards must necessarily result in a less-probable sequence. Since the probability for any 95-card sequence is about 9.86 * 10 ^ -149, which is greater than the Universal Probability Bound, and smaller numbers of cards will necessarily yield more-probable sequences, it follows that any number of cards below 96 will behave randomly, as you expect them to.
As no card game uses decks with 96 or more cards, the deterministic nature of decks with 96+ cards need not concern aficianados of bridge, poker, etc. Since a pinochle deck has 48 cards in it, one might suppose that double-deck pinochle would run afoul of the Universal Probability Bound; fortunately, double-deck pinochle discards the 9s, thereby bringing its deck-size down to a sensibly random 80 cards.
I think this sums up the problems with Intelligent Design quite well (except for the fact that Canasta is played with two full decks, plus Jokers), by demonstrating that any sequence of 96 or more cards perforce is not random, but has to have been designed.