Implications of Scottish Independence

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Undesired Walrus said:
Evidence?
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Rolfe said:
Oh, come on.

Rolfe.
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From the Scottish Government

In 2008-09, the estimated net fiscal balance in Scotland, that is the estimated current budget balance plus estimated net capital investment, was a deficit of £14.7 billion (12.8 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £13.6 billion (11.5 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £3.0 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) when an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.

From the detailed report

Estimated total public sector expenditure for Scotland ... was equivalent to 9.4 per cent of comparable total UK public sector expenditure in 2008-09​

On the other side

The total public sector non-North Sea current revenue in Scotland was ... equivalent to 8.3 per cent of UK total non-North Sea current revenue which is in line with Scotland's share of the UK population​

So from that report the Scotish income in is line with population the expenditure 13.25% higher (9.4/8.3) than the UK as a whole.

In other words (if you trust the Scotish Government's own figures) the net 'profit' the Government earns from scots is less than in the UK as a whole and there is a net subsidy from the rest of the UK to Scotland.
 
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stokes234 said:
Well, that didn't work out so well in ireland. Nor is it particularly ethical, as it spurs a race to the bottom for countries to out-compete eachother on the lowest viable taxes.
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Works quite well in Switzerland though. Its not the only tool obviously but its one we would need to consider using. It might be non-universally applied to specific industries that we wish to develop.

I'm afraid countries are already in a race to out-compete each other, if we think we can not play that game then we'll pay the price for it. Of course 'out compete' is not synonymous with 'race to the bottom of the tax %' there are many other factors at play.
 
Last of the Fraggles said:
Works quite well in Switzerland though. Its not the only tool obviously but its one we would need to consider using. It might be non-universally applied to specific industries that we wish to develop.

I'm afraid countries are already in a race to out-compete each other, if we think we can not play that game then we'll pay the price for it. Of course 'out compete' is not synonymous with 'race to the bottom of the tax %' there are many other factors at play.
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If scotland lower their corporation tax and attract over companies from england, then england loses out. If they attract them from france, france loses out, etc. England and france then have to respond by lowering their own corporate tax rates, and so scotland loses out while england/france are gaining less than they were before. Etc etc until corporations are paying 0.2% tax and the job description for executive of any company anywhere consists of the single line "Rolling around in more money than you can contemplate."

As I understand, Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel have all advocated a standard minimum corporation tax within the EU, and i'm all in favour of that.
 
Lothian said:
From the Scottish Government

In 2008-09, the estimated net fiscal balance in Scotland, that is the estimated current budget balance plus estimated net capital investment, was a deficit of £14.7 billion (12.8 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £13.6 billion (11.5 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £3.0 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) when an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.

From the detailed report
Estimated total public sector expenditure for Scotland ... was equivalent to 9.4 per cent of comparable total UK public sector expenditure in 2008-09
​
On the other side
The total public sector non-North Sea current revenue in Scotland was ... equivalent to 8.3 per cent of UK total non-North Sea current revenue which is in line with Scotland's share of the UK population
​
So from that report the Scotish income in is line with population the expenditure 13.25% higher (9.4/8.3) than the UK as a whole.

In other words (if you trust the Scotish Government's own figures) the net 'profit' the Government earns from scots is less than in the UK as a whole and there is a net subsidy from the rest of the UK to Scotland.
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I'm in a rush and struggling to get my head aroud these snippets and don't have time to refer to the full report but 2 immediate thoughts:

1. There is an imbalance in revenue/expenditure IF you exclude all the North Sea Oil revenues. That seems unfair. Its also not clear what if any other revenues are being included or excluded - e.g. revenue from Scotland's share of Crown Estates.

2. If we include NSO and we are running at a 2% of GDP deficit while the UK as a whole was running at 10% or more we seem to be doing significantly better than the UK.

A final thought is that these numbers are more or less meaningless while the economy of Scotland is controlled from Westminister because the Scottish government are powerless to control the income or, in many ways, the expenditure.
 
stokes234 said:
If scotland lower their corporation tax and attract over companies from england, then england loses out. If they attract them from france, france loses out, etc. England and france then have to respond by lowering their own corporate tax rates, and so scotland loses out while england/france are gaining less than they were before. Etc etc until corporations are paying 0.2% tax and the job description for executive of any company anywhere consists of the single line "Rolling around in more money than you can contemplate."

As I understand, Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel have all advocated a standard minimum corporation tax within the EU, and i'm all in favour of that.
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The reality is that come countries in Europe have lower levels of corporation tax than others and it hasn't resulted in a tit for tat race to the bottom. I seriously doubt that the tax regime of a small northern european nation of 5m people looking to win a couple of factories and a bank HQ is going to have France, Germany and others panicing
 
What he said. (Both posts, though I was referring to the one above the one above.)

Rolfe.
 
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Last of the Fraggles said:
The reality is that come countries in Europe have lower levels of corporation tax than others and it hasn't resulted in a tit for tat race to the bottom. I seriously doubt that the tax regime of a small northern european nation of 5m people looking to win a couple of factories and a bank HQ is going to have France, Germany and others panicing
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Sure, but it all adds up.
 
Lothian's post to UW and me wasn't actually adressing what UW was talking about, which was the belittling of Scotland and the Scots that has been going on for generations. All I can say on that is, if he hasn't seen it, he must live in more high-minded circles than I do.

Of course, we have to acknowledge that Scots themselves have been culpable in this, as some realised the money to be made out of belittling their own nation.

Rolfe.
 
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Rolfe said:
Lothian's post to UW and me wasn't actually adressing what UW was talking about, which was the belittling of Scotland and the Scots that has been going on for generations. All I can say on that is, if he hasn't seen it, he must live in more high-minded circles than I do.

Of course, we have to acknowledge that Scots themselves have been culpable in this, as some realised the money to be made out of belittling their own nation.

Rolfe.
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:boggled:

You are aware that that type of nonsense (i.e. one region belittling another) has being going on all over the country for generations?

E.g., (some) people from Birmingham belittle people from Wolverhampton.
 
I don't think this is really a constructive discussion, but I'm not talking about friendly joshing, or football rivalry, or even rival gangs. There's a reason why so many Scots believe their nation is uniquely too small, too poor and too stupid to govern itself, and it isn't someone having a go in the pub.

Rolfe.
 
He's the latest in a long line that aren't helping, but our political "masters" are far more culpable than the comedians.

Rolfe.
 
Last of the Fraggles said:
I'm in a rush and struggling to get my head aroud these snippets and don't have time to refer to the full report but 2 immediate thoughts:

1. There is an imbalance in revenue/expenditure IF you exclude all the North Sea Oil revenues. That seems unfair. Its also not clear what if any other revenues are being included or excluded - e.g. revenue from Scotland's share of Crown Estates.
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NSO is included.

2. If we include NSO and we are running at a 2% of GDP deficit while the UK as a whole was running at 10% or more we seem to be doing significantly better than the UK.
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Don’t know where 10% comes from but if you compare like with like, as the Scottish Government does here, the deficit in Scotland is higher per head than in the UK.

A final thought is that these numbers are more or less meaningless while the economy of Scotland is controlled from Westminister because the Scottish government are powerless to control the income or, in many ways, the expenditure.
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Of course everyone who does not have to make the decisions promises to spend less and earn more than the current lot.

An independent chancellor could cut subsidies and change the rates but the point made by these figures is that overall the net tax burden on the Scottish people needs to increase to offset the subsidy currently provided to Scotland by the rest of the UK.
 
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Damien Evans said:
Quarries and Sheep never did Australia any harm.
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Big mining industry. When wales had a mining industry we didn't do so badly compared to england, but that got shut down. I'm guessing australia does a tad better out of tourism as well.
 
Rolfe said:
He's the latest in a long line that aren't helping, but our political "masters" are far more culpable than the comedians.

Rolfe.
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The bottom line is that people don't have to swallow the bilge that politicians, the media or even comedians spout. But I fear that for many people, democracy begins and ends at the ballot box, and in the intervening 4-5 years it's a question of just letting the elected get on with it regardless.
 
stokes234 said:
That is basically what i'm suggesting, yes - though instead of "against themselves", i'd have put it as "protecting some english from other english". Wales and the north of england have spent a sizeable portion of the last 100 years getting underfunded and screwed over so that the south of england can prosper. It's all very well saying "stop voting tory", but wales and the urban areas of northern england as a rule already don't, and murdoch has such a stranglehold on the news that places like essex are not going to change their ways.

In my head it was an appeal to solidarity, but you appear to have taken it differently.
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Yes. People only vote Tory because they have been brainwashed by Murdoch (or like eating babies). Gerrymandering to ensure the "correct" election results are returned should be how we decide whether Scottish Independence is a good thing.
 
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