How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[HoverBoarder]

I suggest you optimists take a good hard look at the clusterhump that went down in Egypt, and Libya, after the recent "Arab Spring" fun concluded. We shall see whether or not Syrian are sick of killing one another yet in a few months. If they are, then good for them, it took them 18 years less than the folks in Mozambique. (1976-1995, or so)

As to the complaints about the Russians: they are a Power.
They have interests.
They pursued them.
The have a veto on the UNSC.
No deal goes down without them.
So, work with them. Make a deal.

Leave your altruism at the front door, on the mat where it belongs.

No one's saying that it is going to be all peaches and roses, but the Syrians don't really have much left of a choice.

People have tried to work with Russia, and they don't want to.


You said that "Assad is going to go down swinging," and their main backers don't show any sign of switching course and helping the Syrians get an in-control, and not massivily homicidal government.

As you said, they have their own interests, and they are pursuing them. Those interests do not allow for a stable and peaceful Syria with Assad not in power, and Assad is going to continue to kill as many Syrians as he can to stay in power.

So what else are they supposed to do?

As far as being an "altruistic optimist," I have no problem with that. Imperfect democracies like those that have started to develop in Libya and Egypt are in my mind better than brutal bloody dictators. I don't support anyone being killed, but I also don't support allowing serious human rights crimes and crimes against humanity just because it suits a foreign policy interest.

The current Syrian civil war was fully 100% preventable, without taking that much effort. If Russia had put the red line for their support at something less than using chemical and biological weapons, say at mass murdering protesters, than the regime would have had to negotiate.

As it was, they looked at their situation, and compared it to other cases. In Tunisia, the government transitioned without any major fight. In Egypt, they caved to international pressure. In Libya, the government was only unsuccessful in killing massive numbers of Libyans to retain power only because Nato got involved. The real success stories seemed to be Bahrain and Iran, where they mercilessly killed any dissenting protesters, and executed hundreds more in the privacy of their jails. So when Iran came to give Syria advice and support, that is exactly what Assad's forces did.

It was OK, and seemingly the logical route to kill thousands of protesters and tens of thousands of Syrians instead of negotiating and working on a solution to end the violence. The previous Assad government had killed 20,000 Syrians to terrorize them into submission, and the current Assad government saw no reason to do things any differently.

That calculus could have easily been much different for the Syrian government if the cost-benefit analysis would have been different. If they would not have gotten unconditional support to continue on as large of a mass killing spree as they wanted, they would have had to of chosen a different route.

When the next situation like Syria, Libya, Egypt, Iran, or Bahrain arises, we will have likely not changed anything about that unconditional support structure that allowed those cases to get out of control, and have blatant human rights abuses. However, I have no problem in being optimistic, altruistic, and realistically trying to change that. Much better than being sarcastic and indifferent.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Crud. Just lost a detailed response to you. Here's the pithy version:

Pay attention to history. See French Revolution, Russian Revolution, and Iranian Revolution as test cases for how you'll predict the outcomes of the "Arab Spring, Syria" plays out.

See also my previous notes about this all looking quite a bit like Spanish Civil War, 1930's. You happy with how that worked out?

Misplaced altruism gets people killed, and contributes to, as well as feeds, civil wars.

Read up on Somalia if you don't believe me.

EDIT: also, please read this comment I made in John Mekki's thread.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=8764727&postcount=37

 

[HoverBoarder]

Crud. Just lost a detailed response to you. Here's the pithy version:

Pay attention to history. See French Revolution, Russian Revolution, and Iranian Revolution as test cases for how you'll predict the outcomes of the "Arab Spring, Syria" plays out.

See also my previous notes about this all looking quite a bit like Spanish Civil War, 1930's. You happy with how that worked out?

Misplaced altruism gets people killed, and contributes to, as well as feeds, civil wars.

Read up on Somalia if you don't believe me.

EDIT: also, please read this comment I made in John Mekki's thread.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=8764727&postcount=37

Yeah, I get the whole "remember history thing," but hindsight is always 20-20.

So what lessons are they exactly supposed to learn that could help them today?

Misplaced altruism can definitely be detrimental, especially when it only focuses on one part of the picture, but so can callous indifference.

Right now you have a situation where tens of thousands of people are being killed in a bid by a brutal dictator to terrorize the people into submission. Air raids and artillery regularly target civilian neighborhoods. Bread lines time and time again are targeted with helicoptors hovering over the lines and waiting until the line gets large enough before dropping their bombs and blowing up as many women, children, and men as possible who waiting for what is in many cases their only line for food in a military seige before they are blown to pieces.

Family members of defecting soldiers are taken out and executed. Around 30,000 people have been abducted by the regime, and the best hope of their families is that they are merely being tortured and detained, and have not been killed.

Whole neighborhoods have been completely destroyed. Tens of thousands dead, Hundreds of thousands have fled.

So what grand vision are they supposed to learn from history? Beyond that it just sucks to be them?



There is not much the Syrians can do about their current situation, except to work on forming a responsible government that can work to end the chaos, and bring peace and stability to the region.

You can talk about misplaced altruism, or imperfect interventions, but what is really needed is realism and accountability.

I have no illusions that the rebels in Syria are far from perfect, but the reality is that the FSA, and especially the leadership of the FSA are the only ones seriously working on bringing peace and stability to the country. Assad may say that he is working for the good of the Syrian people, that he is fighting to rid the country of terrorists, but the reality is that he is killing tens of thousands of innocent people that have nothing to do with terrorism, and he will not stop until all groups stop questioning or opposing his rule, which is never. The Syrians are left with that reality, and they have no choice but to look for a way out of that mess.

There is nothing wrong about being altruistic in wanting the Syrians to find a way to end the killing and the cycle of violence, and there is nothing wrong about being optimistic about steps that they have taken to form a new responsible government that work to rebuild the country.

There is nothing wrong with altruism and optimism, as long as it is realistic. Wanting to help doesn't mean that Syria will turn into Somalia, or that we will have to intervene to help. The main thing that is needed is accountability. Something that if Russia and Iran had adhered to, would have prevented a Syrian civil war from ever happening in the first place. The more that accountability can be adhered to globally, the less common that situations like Syria will happen in the future. It we are going to learn anything from the past, it should be that.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Now that there have been major advancements on the issue of how the transition of the political leadership in Syria can progress after the bloody reign of the Assad dictatorship. The question now turns to how to end the conflict, and how and where arms should be provided to the opposition to help end the civil war.

Syrian opposition coalition hailed by Britain, France and Germany

EU foreign ministers have warmly embraced the new US-backed group announced in Doha on Sunday. But both the EU and the Arab League have yet to give it formal recognition. Speaking in Cairo, the foreign secretary William Hague said the new body had to prove its democratic credentials and show it enjoyed support from all Syrians, including from the country's ethnic and religious minorities.

"This coalition gives the opportunity for a united, inclusive and credible political alternative to the Assad regime." he said. "We urge them to set out a detailed platform for a political transition to a democratic Syria, and to demonstrate that they are acting on behalf of all Syria's communities."

France, however, went a step further, with Francois Hollande, declaring: "I announce today that France recognises the Syrian National Council as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people and as future government of a democratic Syria allowing to bring an end to Bashar al-Assad's regime."

The French president added that Paris would look at the question of arming the Syrian National Council once it had created a transitional government.

A Syria donors' conference will be held in London on Friday. The meeting will discuss how to step up non-lethal aid to the new rebel group headed by Khatib, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. Hague today stated that the "more progress" the opposition makes towards its goals, the "greater practical support" it can expect from the UK.

But enhanced diplomatic support falls well short of what the rebels have long been demanding: significant western military assistance to change the dynamics on the ground in Syria. The 20-month uprising to overthrow president Bashar al-Assad has now reached a bloody stalemate, with the regime waging a tenacious and brutal counter-offensive against the lightly armed Free Syrian Army. On Tuesday the Syrian Arab Red Crescent said 2.5 million people had been displaced inside Syria, as civilians sought to escape cities and villages under attack. The figure is twice as high as previous estimates. The UN refugee agency says that the real number of internal refugees could be even higher.

The longer that Assad is able to pummel Syrian cities and villages into the ground in his bid to terrorize them into submission, the more that people will unnecessarily die.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Yeah, I get the whole "remember history thing," but hindsight is always 20-20. So what lessons are they exactly supposed to learn that could help them today?

That the replacement of a despot doesn't always result in sweetness and light. Do you not understand that? Some people have been helping them, by supplying them the means TO FIGHT!

Right now you have a situation where tens of thousands of people are being killed in a bid by a brutal dictator --

Your drama is noted. It is a civil war. Quite crying about it. People die in a civil war. The butcher's bill is so far rather modest, compared to, say, Rwanda ...

Whole neighborhoods have been completely destroyed. Tens of thousands dead, Hundreds of thousands have fled.

And a million or so fled Iraq's descent into civil war about seven years ago.
Your point is ... what?

So what grand vision are they supposed to learn from history?

That change often costs in blood, and that what replaces a despot is not by definition better. It may be better, but it isn't a sure bet.
If you aren't willing to pay that price, blood, you may not get your free or changed country.
Funny old thing, OUR OWN country learned that. Did you even go to school?

There is not much the Syrians can do about their current situation, except to work on forming a responsible government that can work to end the chaos, and bring peace and stability to the region.

The can fight. And some of them are doing so. And, like in our own revolution against a despot, interested third parties are assisting.
Again, did you even bother going to school?

You can talk about misplaced altruism, or imperfect interventions, but what is really needed is realism and accountability.

Realism I have in plenty, but I leave the cry baby act at the door. You'd do well to behave in a like manner.

I have no illusions that the rebels in Syria are far from perfect, but the reality is that the FSA, and especially the leadership of the FSA are the only ones seriously working on bringing peace and stability to the country.

I think you are right about that for the moment, and coalition of anti Assad groups may be the best vehicle for the way forward. You will note from history that coalitions usually dissolve when their purpose ends. (NOTE: NATO is an odd exception to that model.)

Assad may say that he is working for the good of the Syrian people,

Assad is trying to stay in power. Were you in his shoes, you'd do likewise. Your alternative is a noose. What he says ought to be taken with a nice big grain of salt. He's in the old cornered rat situation. heh, he sorta looks like a rat, so it's an apt analogy.

There is nothing wrong about being altruistic in wanting the Syrians to find a way to end the killing and the cycle of violence, a --

Please stop with the stupid. A civil war is violent in nature. Our own revolution and civil war ought to teach you that. Once again, with Assad not believing that he can go into exile and be left alone (my link, please read) he is in fight or flight when confronted by a challenge to his power. So, he fights. Psych 101. Did you even go to school?

There is nothing wrong with altruism and optimism, as long as it is realistic.

Since yours isn't very, there is plenty wrong with it, so I am tweaking your nose and watching you get all wound up.
Try more reality.
War gets people killed.
Sometimes, force is necessary to remove a despot from power.
A civil war tends to be very nasty.
So, Syria has been paying the usual butcher's bill.
Further comment after your next post, which is a bit more current.

I sincerely hope that in Egypt, there won't be a civil war as the factions begin bickering on power sharing. That concerns me a whole lot more than Syria. A whole lot more.

 

[Darth Rotor]

But both the EU and the Arab League have yet to give it formal recognition.

But nothing happens overnight, and maybe this is one of those baby steps forward that gets to a new Syria. One step at a time.

Meanwhile, in re your highlighted, the standard things that happen in a civil war are happening.

Why do you think Syria should be exempt from that? What makes them so special?

Why aren't you all up in arms over a new Kurdish Homeland? What's wrong with you? Your compassion for "syria" generally looks like barely concealed anti Kurdish bigotry from here.



(heh, more nose tweaking, but maybe you ought to learn why I sneer at selective altruism).

 

[HoverBoarder]

That the replacement of a despot doesn't always result in sweetness and light. Do you not understand that? Some people have been helping them, by supplying them the means TO FIGHT!

Your drama is noted. It is a civil war. Quite crying about it. People die in a civil war. The butcher's bill is so far rather modest, compared to, say, Rwanda ...

And a million or so fled Iraq's descent into civil war about seven years ago.
Your point is ... what?

That change often costs in blood, and that what replaces a despot is not by definition better. It may be better, but it isn't a sure bet.
If you aren't willing to pay that price, blood, you may not get your free or changed country.
Funny old thing, OUR OWN country learned that. Did you even go to school?

The can fight. And some of them are doing so. And, like in our own revolution against a despot, interested third parties are assisting.
Again, did you even bother going to school?

Realism I have in plenty, but I leave the cry baby act at the door. You'd do well to behave in a like manner.

I think you are right about that for the moment, and coalition of anti Assad groups may be the best vehicle for the way forward. You will note from history that coalitions usually dissolve when their purpose ends. (NOTE: NATO is an odd exception to that model.)

Assad is trying to stay in power. Were you in his shoes, you'd do likewise. Your alternative is a noose. What he says ought to be taken with a nice big grain of salt. He's in the old cornered rat situation. heh, he sorta looks like a rat, so it's an apt analogy.

Please stop with the stupid. A civil war is violent in nature. Our own revolution and civil war ought to teach you that. Once again, with Assad not believing that he can go into exile and be left alone (my link, please read) he is in fight or flight when confronted by a challenge to his power. So, he fights. Psych 101. Did you even go to school?

Since yours isn't very, there is plenty wrong with it, so I am tweaking your nose and watching you get all wound up.
Try more reality.
War gets people killed.
Sometimes, force is necessary to remove a despot from power.
A civil war tends to be very nasty.
So, Syria has been paying the usual butcher's bill.
Further comment after your next post, which is a bit more current.

I sincerely hope that in Egypt, there won't be a civil war as the factions begin bickering on power sharing. That concerns me a whole lot more than Syria. A whole lot more.

What's with all the 'did you go to school' attitude?

Especailly when you largely agree with my analysis.

 

[HoverBoarder]

But nothing happens overnight, and maybe this is one of those baby steps forward that gets to a new Syria. One step at a time.

Meanwhile, in re your highlighted, the standard things that happen in a civil war are happening.

Why do you think Syria should be exempt from that? What makes them so special?

Why aren't you all up in arms over a new Kurdish Homeland? What's wrong with you? Your compassion for "syria" generally looks like barely concealed anti Kurdish bigotry from here.


(heh, more nose tweaking, but maybe you ought to learn why I sneer at selective altruism).

Overly broad generalizations and sarcasm is not 'nose tweaking' it is just forgoing serious in depth analysis in favor of simplified mass characterizations.

It doesn't mean anything to say that Syria should learn that 'revolutions take time, blood, and sacrifice, and are never perfect.' Syria knows full well that civil wars kill lots of people. Telling them what they already know firsthand doesn't provide them with any new insight or help.

What is important is getting into the specific causes for what caused the Syrian civil war in the first place so they can work on how best to address those issues in their new government. As well as what we can learn from the conflict to reduce the number of similar situations in the future.

 

[trustbutverify]

Considering how thoroughly rebel units are outgunned in the air and on the ground, their success in meeting a number of military benchmarks is surprising. If an improvement in command structure is coupled with the acquisition of a sufficient anti-aircraft arsenal, they could win this thing.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Considering how thoroughly rebel units are outgunned in the air and on the ground, their success in meeting a number of military benchmarks is surprising. If an improvement in command structure is coupled with the acquisition of a sufficient anti-aircraft arsenal, they could win this thing.

I agree, I couldn't imagine going against such a large scale array of mechanized weaponry with mostely light weapons, but Assad hasn't given them much of a choice. Either flee, risk dying in their homes from air and artillery strikes, or fight back.

Anti aircraft weapons could make a major impact, although I am worried that they would be used against Israel or in Afghanistan by some of the more extremist groups in the country.

I have semi-seriously thought about weapons with internal parts that would degrade after a period of say three months. It would not be that hard to do, and would require that the users get replacements from the supplying governments which could control the groups they are given to.

Of course Iran and China could find a way to supply the replacement parts, but they are not always likely to supply groups like Al-Qaeda with weaponry. Plus, the idea of compostable anti-aircraft weapons amuses me.


Turkey has talked about using Patriot missiles fired from their territory as a way of enforcing a no-fly zone near their border, but that would certainly escalate tensions between the two countries.


Violence Flares as Syrian Opposition Garners Support

Kahwaji said the rebels have been making slow but steady progress in capturing portions of Syria from the government, but that it has taken a human toll. He said a no-fly zone, which is being considered by the U.S. and its NATO allies, would cut down civilian losses and hasten the fall of the government.

"Deploying Patriots along the borders will establish a no-fly zone up to about fifty to sixty kilometers deep into Syria," he said. "This would cover most of the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and good chunks of Raqqa and Latakiya. Just the Patriots along the borders will create a no-fly zone for northern Syria."

 

[trustbutverify]

Your idea about degradable weapons is very interesting; the thought never even occurred to me. I have no idea how doable or practical it is, but still very interesting.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Your idea about degradable weapons is very interesting; the thought never even occurred to me. I have no idea how doable or practical it is, but still very interesting.

I am working on my second Bachelors degree right now in Electrical Engineering with a certificate in Nanotechnology, and from my classes on material science, I can think of a number of ways that it could be done.

Although somewhat amusingly, the compostable eating utensil industry may be the best source for this.

 

[McHrozni]

I
I have semi-seriously thought about weapons with internal parts that would degrade after a period of say three months. It would not be that hard to do, and would require that the users get replacements from the supplying governments which could control the groups they are given to.

Wouldn't an easier approach be to use weapons that use completely non-standard ammunition that won't fit anywhere else and that can't use any other ammunition either? All you have to take care is not to deliver too much ammo. Or you could use use degradable propellants, very easy to do, and just as effective.

McHrozni

 

[De_Bunk]

No..Seriously...

Who cares what is happening in Syria...

I can stil buy a quart of milk and bread in my local store..

I truly dont lose any sleep until it comes to my doorstep..

Harsh..Yes..

Both sides scream 'Allah Ackbar'..

Means zero jack squat to me...

Life in the 21st century..That's how it is..

DB

 

[HoverBoarder]

Wouldn't an easier approach be to use weapons that use completely non-standard ammunition that won't fit anywhere else and that can't use any other ammunition either? All you have to take care is not to deliver too much ammo. Or you could use use degradable propellants, very easy to do, and just as effective.

McHrozni

Sure, that would work great, I like the ideas. Although if something were to be used now, it would have to be a pretty immediate design change.

Good ideas though.

 

[HoverBoarder]

No..Seriously...

Who cares what is happening in Syria...

I can stil buy a quart of milk and bread in my local store..

I truly dont lose any sleep until it comes to my doorstep..

Harsh..Yes..

Both sides scream 'Allah Ackbar'..

Means zero jack squat to me...

Life in the 21st century..That's how it is..

DB

Your life will probably not be that different no matter what happens in Syria. Short of Assad firing off chemical weapons in a 'you're all going down with me' bid of a doomed dictator, or extremists getting their hands on the chemical/biological weapons.

However, one of the reasons that this could be important to you is the pattern of unaccountability that allows cases like these to continually re-occur.

Eventually the patterns of unaccountability could create cases that would spiral out of control, and get some of the big powers directly involved.

The Syrian conflict could have very easily have never happened in the first place, and that's a whole lot of people who have died because of a small miscalculation of policy from Russia to not care about the accountability of mass killings.

We live in a world surrounded and saturated with thousands of weapons of mass destruction. Refusing to fix the miscommunication and unaccountability problems that caused the Syrian civil war, and will likely cause more conflicts in the future because of general apathy is a very dangerous calculation.

 

[Praktik]

Clearly the solution has been found: an iron fist and a midwife are the solutions to Syria's problems. Why? Cause the world is flat errr... or something...

 

[HoverBoarder]

Clearly the solution has been found: an iron fist and a midwife are the solutions to Syria's problems. Why? Cause the world is flat errr... or something...

Funny article, but Taibbi didn't say much of anything.

 

[Praktik]

Doesn't need to when Friedman provides so much material up front, for free!

 

[JihadJane]

No..Seriously...

Who cares what is happening in Syria...

I can stil buy a quart of milk and bread in my local store..

I truly dont lose any sleep until it comes to my doorstep..

Harsh..Yes..

Both sides scream 'Allah Ackbar'..

Means zero jack squat to me...

Life in the 21st century..That's how it is..

DB

Why bother posting such bigoted bunk, De_Bunk? Go back to sleep!