How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[JihadJane]

So just ignore any contradicting data or questions that you don't want to answer, and move on.

Enjoy fantasy land.

You haven't provided any "contradicting data", unless one calls meandering, abstract generalizations and unsupported "liar, liar pants-on-fire!" assertions data.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Oh, I am happy to respond, I just have been too busy for the last few days, so I couldn't check JREF.

I hear that.

On the rest, Spit.

 

[HoverBoarder]

You haven't provided any "contradicting data", unless one calls meandering, abstract generalizations and unsupported "liar, liar pants-on-fire!" assertions data.

Sari.

Houla video.

Houla claims.

Protester deaths.

Regime artillery attacks.

Regime air attacks.

War crime examples.

The over 28,000 Abductions.

Regime Torture centers and patterns.

Intentional targeting of civilians.

Credibility problems of the SANA/ANNA information used.

Unsupported conclusions on the Wiki.

Ignoring contradictory data.

 

[HoverBoarder]

When you add up the numbers of protesters killed from the source you posted, it quickly adds up to a few hundred here, a few hundred there, and the few thousand estimate provided would be a fairly reasonable estimate.

Beyond that, there certainly are a number of details we would likely disagree on. The number of protesters killed would certainly be far higher than the 35 number you cited though.

Yeah. I explained that previously, not far back. You're very confused on this, and I suggest just paying attention to what that estimate is actually tied to, by me, in words with all the usual meanings. 'K? This part I won't re-explain again other than this last hint: show how significantly more than about 25-50 or maybe a little more protesters, or anyone, was killed prior to March 23 or bug off because we're not talking about the same thing, even though you claim we are. I don't care how confused you continue to act about it, you're on your own. Figure it out or don't.

It is not a serious number whatever way you want to spin it.

Just clicking on the wikipedia list you linked to, there are hundreds to thousands of dead protesters before the formation of the FSA in July.

There is no reason to choose March 23rd as the cutoff date for not counting killed protesters.


Especially when one of the only groups that are bothering to keep a death count include statistics like this:

Government forces loyal to al-Assad killed 4,532 civilians in October, an average of 147 people a day, the Syrian Network for Human Rights said in an e-mailed statement.

Re-re-explained: Just look at the video. 2:10-2:15, walking towards and then past (south of) the camera. 2:38 I think is another blast of the same tearing-type sound. The camera tries to ignore, but later pans south, about walking distance in that time, half-block or so, and there's the same kind of cloud at the mouth of an alley. The guy isn't visible. My guess is he went down that alley just as another "shell came crashing down" near him. UNLUCKY but LUCKY dude, and armed.

A loud sound off camera does not equal what you say it does.

It does not show that he was next to a second large shell explosion.

And you still have the problem of the explosion that he was viewed as being next to not being anywhere close to what an RPG firing looks like.

Not sure what you mean here.

Note the person next to him in wave-catching robes is not tipped over by the blast, only the guy holding a rocket launcher. Neither of them was injured, one guy just fell down about a second after the blast.

We don't see him shoot? Nor do we see a shell coming "down." It takes 25 frames to follow the sound and see the guy just then falling down and losing his Khaffiyeh.

At 0:34, you see people running towards a large cloud of smoke to rescue what turns out to be dead people. At 1:35 is your zoomed in and enhanced video of the man falling down. Pretty cool video stabilization work, however.

Nowhere is there evidence that:

1) Any of those people were killed by that 'some guy with an RPG.'

2) That the man fired the RPG.

3) That any of the artillery shelling was attempted to be faked.

Other rebels with RPGs we do see them firing the things, two instances in this video, neither certainly from May 25 but more than likely so, both placed around north Main Street in Taldou.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DKTRO_AAXA
(latter half)
In both cases, there are clouds of exhaust very like what we see in my video, a little in the rocket's path, more trumpeted out the back end. In both cases, it's thinner than seen in the first blast. In that case, the guy was backed up against a wall with a low overhang, so the cloud in back should be dense and rolling, as it is.

Actually it shows the EXACT opposite. There are three RPG firings in the video you linked to.

At:

1:42, 2:10, and 2:48.

None of them look anything like the video you include about Houla.

As I've said, grudging acknowledgment is also acceptable, but I see no reason to expect anything more than you've been giving over and over. So I can also just walk away, as I'm about to, from your continued hollow posturing as the valliant defender of the orthodoxy against the hordes of a few "dishonest" ... whatever else you think I am that causes the lying. It's a sadder ending than realizing I finally got through that brick wall (or one of 'em) and got you to agree or at least UNDERSTAND a single thing I've said. But it seems to be the ending you wrote into your script here, so whatever.

I am more than happy to admit where I have been wrong, but I am not going to just accept unsupported assertions because you want me to.

I did not see him right next to another explosion, and the angle and other factors make it seem very unlikely to me that it could have been from an RPG...

Just curious though, how many artillery and air attacks throughout Syria do you think were faked by 'some guy with an RPG?'

1%, 5%, 50%.


Let's just say for the sake of argument 75%. 75% of all reported regime artillery and air attacks were due to 'some guy with an RPG.'

1) Why would no one say anything about that?
2) Do you think the building damages and size of craters through many of the bombed cities in Syria could realistically been caused by RPGs?
3) What about the pictures of regime planes and artillery in areas of reported regime shelling/ air bombing?
4) How many deaths could the thousands of reported, photographed, and filmed artillery, air, and 'some guy with an RPG' have caused?

100% in the "Houla massacre," including several hundred guys with these and other weapons. Or so the physical battle damage as seen on May 26, several rebel videos of their own actions, and the portion of the alleged witnesses you consider to be the liars, conspire to suggest.

The site is down, so I can't easily make it as hard to ignore as I'd like, but the photos, videos - look 'em up. Horizontal shelling. Few damaged roofs, but lots of walls holed on par with both heavy AA rounds (think Tripoli and Sirte last year) and RPGs, against the massacre homes and the nearby government security posts that even the UN acknowledged two of these were conquered by some rebel offensive that very day. Not terribly late in the day, before the massacres. Plus smaller bullet holes all over, power lines down, tress in the median mowed down, signs and crests torn down, black graffiti, massive arson of homes and fields, and those darn massacres.


I don't know, dude. I deal in specific cases.It's probably at least semi-significant portion on average, 5-25%? In Taldou, apparently, 100% by him and his hundreds of friends.

Wow, really? 5-25% of regime artillery/air attacks in Syria are faked by 'some guy with an RPG.'

Have you really thought that through?

I mean seriously?

5-25%? Even if that is just a rough estimate. How would even 5% make any sense at all?

Consider the feasibility, cost, logistics, complete lack of witnesses.


There would be thousands of faked attacks across Syria in rebel held areas, that destroyed thousands of buildings, and would have contributed to thousands of deaths, and NO ONE anywhere saw any of it.

Do you realize how statistically impossible that assertion is?

Probably the same reason they don't at actual levels, that you don't even when it's distilled past the point of ignoring and put right in your face about this one instance. It's grossly inconvenient and just cannot be true. Something explains it, whatever. And for all the other evidence, obviously, or else - gulp - and no, that's not possible. Someone would have said something.

Grossly illogical, habitually dishonest, and statistically impossible is not the same as inconvenient.

The ones that truly don't look like it? No, I would guess most likely not. But in Houla, yeah, even the UN investigators didn't see anything that couldn't be caused mortars, which the rebels own plenty of.

What about 'em? None in Houla. Not even tracks. Just rebels firing explosives around town that same day, as they overran probably all of the security posts and secured free reign for themselves, while removing it for "the regime," just before the massacres. Like SOME of the alleged witnesses said and the others uniformly glossed over or didn't happen to see.

Let's take one simple fact. In areas that the regime is not in control of, the rebel held areas are bombed to crap, while the Kurdish held areas are largely intact.

It would be illogical for the rebels to destroy so much of their own bases of operations.

Strange list, but just taking the last one, I could only say ATM 5-10% to maybe 25-35% or possibly more, depending on lots of variables over many places, many months, and many parallel info-universes. It's a lot, but then the government's been kicking some pretty serious ass too, so I imagine they're still doing easily more than half of the overall blowing up.

So in other words, Gooooo team!


Although, if Assad is so clearly winning the war, why are so many parts of Syria resisting his rule and no longer under his control?

Do you think the rebels are not making any gains?

Syria rebels launch assault on key northern airbase

In Taldou, May 25, other than rebel fighters killed in the attack, it would be 100% of the victims, given as 108 in number, 49 children.

Yes, I realize the gravity of what I'm saying and why it can never have been true. Don't sweat it man, just keep doing your defending thing. You'll help the world see the light.

It's not true because there are no facts to support it.

 

[HoverBoarder]

An article posted by JJ linked to an article that claims that a peace deal has already been agreed to between Turkey and Russia:

A few interesting articles posted on yesterday's Information Clearing House news digest:

--------

'The Sore Losers Of The Syrian Crisis'

During a recent Round Table in Ankara, Admiral James Winnfeld, Vice-Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced that Washington would reveal its intentions toward Syria once the 6 November presidential elections were over. He made it plainly understood to his Turkish counterparts that a peace plan had already been negotiated with Moscow, that Bashar al-Assad would remain in power and that the Security Council would not authorize the creation of buffer zones. For his part, Herve Ladsous, the U.N. Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations, announced that he was studying the possible deployment of peacekeepers ("blue helmets") in Syria.

Note that the source is very CT heavy with a history of posting inaccurate, and purposefully falsified reports, but it is an interesting idea to think about none-the-less.

Any thoughts on it?

 

[HoverBoarder]

A lot more should probably be said about the "Day After Project" partly organized under the US Institute for Peace.

The Day After project brought together a group of Syrians representing a large spectrum of the Syrian opposition—including senior representatives of the Syrian National Council (SNC), members of the Local Coordination Committees in Syria (LCC), and unaffiliated opposition figures from inside Syria and the Diaspora representing all major political trends and components of Syrian society—to participate in an independent transition planning process...
The project has been facilitated by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) in partnership with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP).

The seven page summary of their longer report can be found here:

Goals and Core Principles
Participants in The Day After project identified the following as goals that should guide the efforts of transitional authorities. Progress toward the achievement of these goals will increase prospects for a successful post-Assad transition:

• Citizenship and equality of all citizens, rather than sectarian, ethnic, or gender considerations, should be decisive in relations between individuals and the state.

• Syria should be a civil state in which the role of the security forces should be to protect the security and human rights of all citizens.

• Unity of state and territory together with elements of decentralization will allow for citizens’ participation on all levels.

• The economy should be managed to realize social justice, human development, sustainable development, and the protection of natural resources.

• The new political leadership and government should demonstrate a clear commitment to democratic principles and processes to break with authoritarian legacies.

• A new national identity needs to be developed, strengthened and promoted. Unity needs to be fostered among all components of Syrian society, and a consensus on the core values and fundamental principles of the nation as well as the new framework for governance needs to be built. Also, citizens need to be educated and empowered on the principles and practice of democracy.

I am actually surprised that I, or no one else have brought up this group before on this thread, since they are one of the main groups looking into a peaceful transition once the conflict is over, and include the Local Coordination Committees. Which include many of the communities that are free from Assad's rule, or are struggling to be free.

The LCC is very influential currently while the conflict is still raging as they basically have formed some of the post-Assad government structures for communities not under his control, and they will also be very influential post conflict regardless of the outcome:

Local Coordinating Committees of Syria (LCCSyria)
When the Syrian uprising began in March, local committees emerged in towns and cities across Syria. These committees took responsibility for meeting, planning and organizing events on the ground within their own communities.

Over time, the committees have sought greater coordination between themselves, in order to synchronize their activities, movements on the ground and political positions. Together the committees formed the Local Coordinating Committees of Syria, an umbrella organization with members from most cities and many smaller towns across Syria.

Local Committees under the LCCSyria:

•Committee Dara
•Committee Homs
•Committee Banias
•Committee Saraqeb
•Committee Idleb
•Committee Hasaka
•Committee Qamishli
•Committee Der Ezzor
•Committee Syrian Coast
•Committee Hama
•Committee Raqqa
•Committee Swayda’
•Committee Damascus suburbs
•Committee Damascus

 

[HoverBoarder]

In case there was any doubt about of whether the regime has been carrying out war crimes and human rights violations, I just looked at an LCC report that covers just one half of one month in November 2011, and includes many abuses by the regime including attacks on protesters.

The Syrian Regime’s Violations File Covering the Period November 1-15, 2011


Hopefully, the Syrian people will be able to move beyond the brutality of the Assad regime, and begin to rebuild their country, but the war looks like it still has a long way to go, and Assad's forces are only getting more and more brutal. Russia and Iran have yet to confront Assad about his massive war crime abuses, and it seems unlikely that they ever will.

Which is partially, at least as far as Russia is concerned, is due to the fact that if they do confront Assad about his massive human rights abuses, than that would mean they would be admitting fault for supporting and helping to continue the conflict in the first place.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Divisions emerge at Syria opposition conference

The groups that will likely shape the post Assad Syria are meeting in Doha, and working on a plan for what the new Syrian government structure should look like.

At the conference in Doha, the SNC will have to decide whether to accept a plan proposed by a prominent dissident, Riad Seif, to set up a new leadership group of about 50 members. The SNC would get some 15 seats, meaning its influence would be diluted, while military commanders and local leaders in rebel-held areas would win wider representation.

Seif said his plan has broad international backing and portrayed it as a stepping stone to more robust foreign aid.

SNC chief Abdelbaset Sieda dismissed Seif's optimism, saying he and others in the SNC no longer trust promises of international support that are linked to restructuring of the opposition.

"We faced this situation before, when we formed the SNC (last year)," he told The Associated Press. "There were promises like that, but the international community in fact did not give us the support needed for the SNC to do its job."

The SNC is to decide Wednesday whether to accept Seif's plan. Sieda said the SNC believes it deserves at least 40 percent of the seats, should it decide to join the new group, suggesting the group may have decided it's under too much pressure to reject the plan entirely.

The SNC has not been very happy about a plan that would give it diluted power, but it is likely necessary to include other groups in Syria if there is going to be enough broad support.

The support for Assad is largely gone except for some Allawites, some Kurds, and some Christians. Although even those who still support Assad are generally not supportive of his bloody mass killings, and many are afraid of the chaos, as well as having their neighborhoods subject to the daily shelling and bombing of other neighborhoods who are already free from Assad's rule.

If there was a solid plan put in place, there could be a pretty big rush to end the Assad dictatorship, and work towards rebuilding a free Syria.

On Thursday, Seif will attempt to form the new leadership group with the backing of the SNC. If he is successful, the Friends of Syria, an alliance of countries backing the rebels, is to convene in Morocco, he said.

The 66-year-old Seif, who left Syria few months ago after having been detained by the regime, said that if his plan is accepted, "the whole world will be behind" the new opposition leadership.

At the Morocco conference, "maybe 100 countries will recognize this new leadership as the legitimate and only representative of the Syrians," said Seif, who suffers from cancer and is not seeking a leadership role.

He did not say what kind of practical support the opposition could expect, but suggested the Morocco gathering would be a launching pad for a transitional government.

And of course there still is the problem of radical rebel groups, there has been a lot of work by the SNC to bring structure and accountability to members of the FSA, but they hold less power over the more radical groups.

In his opening speech at the conference, Sieda said the SNC is trying to unify all military groups under one leadership, in part to prevent "any extremism, mistakes or atrocities" from being committed. Earlier this week, a video appeared to show rebel fighters executing a group of unarmed, captured Syrian soldiers, prompting an international outcry.

Sieda urged all commanders and rebel fighters to respect human rights and said those violating them on the rebel side would be brought to justice.

 

[HoverBoarder]

More info on why Assad will likely never voluntarily agree to peace talks

Bashar al-Assad wants war not peace reveals Syria's former prime minister Riyad Hijab

The most senior politician to defect from the Bashar al-Assad's regime has revealed that the President repeatedly rejected calls by his own government for a political compromise, in favour of all-out war.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Prospects for a comprehensive Syrian opposition to Assad's bloody dictatorship are rising daily.

That is very good news for Syrians who want to end the war, and work on rebuilding their country.

United opposition in Syria a realistic proposition

 

[trustbutverify]

Not great news for the Mullahs, Putin and the inside job cult.

 

[McHrozni]

Prospects for a comprehensive Syrian opposition to Assad's bloody dictatorship are rising daily.

That is very good news for Syrians who want to end the war, and work on rebuilding their country.

United opposition in Syria a realistic proposition

A very interesting development: they elected a Christian as their leader.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20276252

This demonstrates that they're looking a bit further ahead than the usual fanatics do. Regardless of how much actual support he has and how much of this is a ploy to gain more foreign aid, they have demonstrated maturity above and beyond what anyone expected of them. If he also has geniune support, Syria may actually stand a chance.

McHrozni

 

[HoverBoarder]

Not great news for the Mullahs, Putin and the inside job cult.

The ironic thing is that Putin would actually benefit from a peaceful Syria, but they can't bring themselves around to supporting a peace solution because it might mean admitting some of their role in perpetuating and supporting the conflict.

Which really comes down to pride. Russia will likely let another few ten thousand Syrians die, and even give weapons and support to the Assad regime to continue the conflict, just because they don't want the inconvenience of admitting any fault.


It's good news for the Syrians though. All Syrians except for the top dictatorship power struggle. The more that Christians, Alawite, Kurds, Sunnis and all Syrians get behind a peace plan for a post Assad Syria, the quicker they can start to rebuild.

 

[HoverBoarder]

A very interesting development: they elected a Christian as their leader.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20276252

This demonstrates that they're looking a bit further ahead than the usual fanatics do. Regardless of how much actual support he has and how much of this is a ploy to gain more foreign aid, they have demonstrated maturity above and beyond what anyone expected of them. If he also has geniune support, Syria may actually stand a chance.

McHrozni

Which is very good news.

They have been making some really viable plans for the future, and while they still have to deal with a dictator who declared that he is willing to fight to the death to retain his bloody grip on power, which will lead to a lot more than the over 36,000 already dead, they really don't have any other choice.

The more that the new Syrian governing body that will replace Assad develops solid plans for the future, the more international support, and the more Syrian support they will get.

 

[HoverBoarder]

With the new head of the SNC, and continued negotiations in Doha, the chance for peace in Syria is becoming more and more viable.


Syria refugees want opposition to unite

 

[HoverBoarder]

A very interesting development: they elected a Christian as their leader.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20276252

This demonstrates that they're looking a bit further ahead than the usual fanatics do. Regardless of how much actual support he has and how much of this is a ploy to gain more foreign aid, they have demonstrated maturity above and beyond what anyone expected of them. If he also has geniune support, Syria may actually stand a chance.

McHrozni

This is very good news, but the longer that the conflict goes on, the more the vacum of power creates opportunities for extremism, and the harder it will be for any new governing body to control them.

As Assad gets more and more towards the "nothing left to lose" mode, the more violent and brutal he has become. Over a decade ago Assad talked about working towards reforms to change the brutal nature of the dictatorship rule that he inherited, but was prevented from doing so by the security infrastructure that sought to show him who was really in power. Assad never could control the Shabiha and Mukhabarat forces that killed some many innocent Syrian civilians under his watch and created the civil war we have today, and he still can't. Assad couldn't stop the mass killing by his own forces even if he wanted to. Now his fate, and his life is in their hands, and he has become more and more desperate with the mess that they have created.

It is unlikely that Assad will put the needs or the tens of thousands of Syrians who have been, and will be killed in his bloody bid to retain power. And it is also unlikely that his main backers, Russia and Syria, will ever put the needs and lives of the Syrian people above their own foreign policy interests. While they continue to support an inevitably doomed dictator, the Syrian people continue to suffer.

Thousands flee Syria as violence worsens



The Syrian people will need to find a way to achieve a post Assad Syria if they want to achieve peace and start to rebuild, and that will take a strong government structure that can take over after Assad is gone and help convince Syrians to support the transition, but it will also take the means to resist the Assad regime which will take arms.

Which of course is a very risky endeavor because of the access that extremist groups could have to those arms, but right now, the arms that are being provided are being given almost to a majority of extremist groups, and more weapons from moderate countries like Jordan and Turkey could help with that problem. In addition the constant flow of arms from Iran and Russia to the regime are unimpeded, even when the regime blatantly uses those arms to kill civilians.

Syria needs both good ideas from people like the groups in Doha, as well as people willing to put their lives on the line to fight the tyranny of the regime.

Jordan Said to Help Arm Syria Rebels

AMMAN, Jordan—Jordan has stepped up its support for neighboring Syria's political and military opposition, including allowing some light arms to flow across the border, according to Syrian rebels and an Arab official familiar with the operation.

Several shipments of arms—including assault rifles, Russian-designed antitank missiles and ammunition—have been delivered to the border in Jordanian military trucks and then taken into Syria by rebel brigades, according to Syrian rebel fighters. Dozens of other shipments have been smuggled to Syria with the covert support of Jordanian border officials, these people say. Saudi Arabia and Qatar pay for these arms and transport them to Jordan, say rebel fighters based along the Syria-Jordan border and a person involved in arms procurement for the rebels.

Jordan, which has long sought to stay out of Syria's growing conflict, denies aiding Syrian rebels militarily, either by transporting weapons or allowing them to move across the border.

The emerging weapons pipeline, a previously unreported development, isn't large enough to shift the balance of power in favor of rebels, say the rebel fighters and those who help them procure arms. The Syrian regime's air force and mechanized units continue to outgun lightly armed insurgents, they say.

Still, such an energized supply route through Jordan would show how even regional states with the risk of significant blowback are boosting support for the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

 

[McHrozni]

This is very good news, but the longer that the conflict goes on, the more the vacum of power creates opportunities for extremism, and the harder it will be for any new governing body to control them.

Yes, this is the biggest danger Syria is facing now. It could become new Somalia, there is a real danger of that. I'm sure some will find a way to blame US for it.

McHrozni

 

[HoverBoarder]

Yes, this is the biggest danger Syria is facing now. It could become new Somalia, there is a real danger of that. I'm sure some will find a way to blame US for it.

McHrozni

The somewhat ironic thing is that the very people in the FSA and many in the army, could very well be fighting together in the new Syria government structure against the extremists who do not want what many in the army and the FSA want, a peaceful and stable Syria that protects all Syrian people regardless of sect or religion.

This conflict started because Assad was not able to control his own brutal forces, and his allies, Iran and Russia, did not give him the support to reign them in. Instead they just provided an endless supply of weapons, without giving him what he really needed. An excuse to calm things down with his own out-of-control forces before it lead to the killing of tens of thousands of his own people.

Now it is too late, and Assad has too much blood on his hands, and Iran and Russia cannot risk hurting their pride by admitting any fault and switch their role to help end the crisis instead of promoting and sustaining it.

The Syrian people are left to suffer from that.


The agreements in Doha could provide a solid and major framework to help end the crisis, but once they achieve a post Assad government, they very likely could have to battle and tackle the extremists in their country. Something that very well could possibly combine the former foes in the FSA and the Syrian army into a new combined fighting force.

 

[HoverBoarder]

And the new Syrian government starts to form:




Syrian rebels show united front

Feuding factions finally put aside differences to agree deal combining Syrian National Council with smaller groups

Qatar and Turkey, two of the Syrian opposition's biggest international backers, have called for other states to endorse an umbrella deal signed on Sunday night that unites feuding anti-Assad groups and paves a way for funding to resume.

The formation of the group had been a key demand of the US and the Gulf states, which have sidelined the original political body, the Syrian National Council, and urged that a broader and more representative group be established.

After a week of wrangling in the Qatari capital, Doha, the chance of such a group being enshrined had nearly evaporated. However, an agreement was finally reached that absorbed the SNC and nominated a new leadership.

A former imam at the Umayyad mosque in the Syrian capital, Damascus, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, was named leader. Riad Seif, who proposed the new initiative, and Suhair Atassi, a female activist, will be his deputies.

Qatar, which had invested much regional capital in an accord being struck on its soil, said the international community no longer had an excuse to ignore the Syrian opposition. Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, adopted a similar tone. Qatar later called for the new body to be considered the only legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

Finally a pathway forward to end the killing.

This new body will hopefully increase the aid and support for the Syrian people who are resisting the regime, and that will help bring an end to the conflict quicker as more aid is provided to them. The Syrian people will not have to endure the bloody Assad dictatorship much longer.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I suggest you optimists take a good hard look at the clusterhump that went down in Egypt, and Libya, after the recent "Arab Spring" fun concluded. We shall see whether or not Syrian are sick of killing one another yet in a few months. If they are, then good for them, it took them 18 years less than the folks in Mozambique. (1976-1995, or so)

As to the complaints about the Russians: they are a Power.
They have interests.
They pursued them.
The have a veto on the UNSC.
No deal goes down without them.
So, work with them. Make a deal.

Leave your altruism at the front door, on the mat where it belongs.