How can peace in Syria be achieved?

[IDB87]

As the regime continues to lose control of airbases, military bases, towns, they lose tanks, ammunition, helicopters, jets, artillery, anti-air assets, trucks, soldiers, as well as cities and towns to the Free Syrian army, it diminishes their ability to attack the towns, cities, and soldiers who have joined the rebellion.

It's simple - the rebellion is 100% illegitimate in Empress' eyes. If Assad cannot have tanks, helicopters, and jets to combat the 'insurrection', then that is a bad thing.

If the uprising had any legitimacy in their eyes, it is completely gone now that foreign fighters are streaming into the country, and oh, what a lovely opportunity to point out Western hypocrisy! Support of Syrian rebels now equates to support of Islamic terrorism, don't you know?

 

[Childlike Empress]

It's simple - the rebellion is 100% illegitimate in Empress' eyes. If Assad cannot have tanks, helicopters, and jets to combat the 'insurrection', then that is a bad thing.

If the uprising had any legitimacy in their eyes, it is completely gone now that foreign fighters are streaming into the country, and oh, what a lovely opportunity to point out Western hypocrisy! Support of Syrian rebels now equates to support of Islamic terrorism, don't you know?

Speak for yourself, pal. HB's mantra is detached from reality; wishful thinking based on an utterly flawed understanding of the situation. You can see it again by the hilarious way in which he quotes Escobar above. There's news in Pipelineistan (why is he always half a year behind?) - talk has started again, and not only that, it's being build. To whose primary disadvantage (geopolitical trick question)?

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[HoverBoarder]

Speak for yourself, pal. HB's mantra is detached from reality; wishful thinking based on an utterly flawed understanding of the situation. You can see it again by the hilarious way in which he quotes Escobar above. There's news in Pipelineistan (why is he always half a year behind?) - talk has started again, and not only that, it's being build. To whose primary disadvantage (geopolitical trick question)?

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I know you don't like anyone talking negatively about the 'dear leader,' but I really wouldn't bring up being detached from reality given your history of ignoring contradictory information.

The basic fact is that as Assad loses more and more military assets and defected military personnel, the shorter his time remaining in power becomes. He simply cannot win this war if he continues to lose territory, bases, and arms, and no amount of propaganda or cheerleading can change that.

The sad and tragic fact is that none of this was necessary at all if Assad and the uncontrollable institutions set up under Hafez al-Assad had not created it. It especially would not have happened if people had held Syria accountable. Or for example if Russia had put the lives of the Syrian people above their sole focus on the protection of Gazprom's profits, the Russian loans made to Syria, and their arms sales.

 

[HoverBoarder]

It's simple - the rebellion is 100% illegitimate in Empress' eyes. If Assad cannot have tanks, helicopters, and jets to combat the 'insurrection', then that is a bad thing.

If the uprising had any legitimacy in their eyes, it is completely gone now that foreign fighters are streaming into the country, and oh, what a lovely opportunity to point out Western hypocrisy! Support of Syrian rebels now equates to support of Islamic terrorism, don't you know?

Not all of the rebels are 'good guys,' some have committed some very serious war crimes.

There definitely needs to be serious discussions on how the new Free Syria will deal with the protection of minorities and reprisals against supporters of the regime.

The problem for almost any conflict comes when you support a side so much that you are willing to ignore anything bad that they do.

Whether the number of people killed in Syria surpasses other civil wars does not negate the fact that Syria will be dealing with the major repercussions of this conflict for decades if not longer.

Peace is badly needed in Syria, but how and under what circumstances that peace is achieved is of enormous importance for the 22 million Syrian people who will have to rebuild, both psychologically and physically.

 

[Caustic Logic]

The rebellion tried many times to advocate for change through peaceful demonstrations, and every time Assad responded with bullets, mass detentions, torture, and executions. Both for the people involved with the demonstrations, as well as people whose killing was determined by the regime as a viable strategy for deterring future protests.

The campaign of terror and destruction that Assad unleashed backfired, and the Free Syrian army is the result. If Assad was a more capable, competent, and less bloodthirsty tyrant, than there never would have been a civil war in the first place.

So of course, every girl that's raped married and consummated by rebel fighters in Syria will be Assad's fault.

"Sorry, dear. Your president shoulda surrendered to the armed Salafists long ago instead of killing protesters. Then they wouldn't have to be there raping and pillaging and protesting still after 22 months. But they are, so... what did you expect?"

Peace is badly needed in Syria, but how and under what circumstances that peace is achieved is of enormous importance for the 22 million Syrian people who will have to rebuild, both psychologically and physically.

Good point. Too bad you can't think it through too clearly. Id a functioning government a good or a bad thing in a country suddenly plagued with well-armed Islamo-nihilists, thanks to Turkey, NATO, the Gulf kingdoms, and Al-Qaeda?

 

[Darth Rotor]

22 million minus the two million refugees.

Right?

 

[Caustic Logic]

22 million minus the two million refugees.

Right?

The whatever original number, 21/22 million, minus app. 45-50,000 killed (not 60,000) on both sides, plus births, minus other deaths, minus however many have left. That includes nearly 600,000 registered refugees, plus others who left without fitting that definition (unknown). The 2 million I mentioned is a possible high end of a number of at least one million, I estimate, that have been displaced by the war. That will include those who left the country, and IDPs, as you might recall. The majority of that one million-plus will still be in the country, some fleeing now for a second or third time, but internally.

So no, they don't count against the total number of people subjected to increasing levels of chaos, anxiety, suffering, and death as the rebels and their benefactors stall the inevitable return of peace to Syria, all over some pet project of regime change all over again.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Looks like another few months of this intramural homicide is on their dinner plates.

Food is starting to be a problem, isn't it?

 

[Caustic Logic]

Looks like another few months of this intramural homicide is on their dinner plates.

Food is starting to be a problem, isn't it?

Yes.

ETA: But I should add that there are probably signs one could find that Assad is about to crack. So probably, the return of peace and stability and food availability is just around to corner. Right?

 

[Darth Rotor]

Yes.

ETA: But I should add that there are probably signs one could find that Assad is about to crack. So probably, the return of peace and stability and food availability is just around to corner. Right?

Caustic, my expectation is that when Assad goes, be it by fleeing or by lead plebiscite, there will be some months of internecine fighting as various factions and groups try to become top dog. Depending upon how local actors -- Turks, Saudis, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon -- choose to aid and abet any stabilization process, and how much money and help the entire international community via UN and other organs offers up, this could be a short period or one lasting a couple of years. My hope is that this all leads to the establishment of some form of "Kurdistan" or autonomous Kurdish region where Syria and Iraq meet. My hope may be in vain.

See Iraq for a fine example.

I read today that a few dozen more were killed by the now boringly usual bombing by some sectarian group. Shia took the face shot, according to the article.

 

[HoverBoarder]

So of course, every girl that's raped married and consummated by rebel fighters in Syria will be Assad's fault.

"Sorry, dear. Your president shoulda surrendered to the armed Salafists long ago instead of killing protesters. Then they wouldn't have to be there raping and pillaging and protesting still after 22 months. But they are, so... what did you expect?"

Well yes, Assad definitely deserves a portion of the blame.

He could have chosen to hold those in his regime responsible for mass killing protesters, or Syrian civilians, but he choose to/was not able to do that.

The chaos that has resulted as a consequence of Assad not being able to control the army, Shabiha, or Mukhabarat is something that Assad deserves a large portion of blame for.

If Assad were to have stepped down in replacement of someone who was actually able to govern the country, than none of this would have happened.

Good point. Too bad you can't think it through too clearly. I a functioning government a good or a bad thing in a country suddenly plagued with well-armed Islamo-nihilists, thanks to Turkey, NATO, the Gulf kingdoms, and Al-Qaeda?

Nice theory, but the problem is that the Syrian regime is by no means a functioning government.

The regime forces have been going on a mad killing spree, and have not been under control by Assad for over a decade.

With a major portion if not the majority of the country having declared themselves free from the regime's rule, and with the diminishing ability of the regime to project military power to take back those areas, it is becoming less and less likely that there is any possibility of a future for the regime in Syria.

Better to start looking at the realistic options for government structures in Syria, than to hold on to the impossible possibility of reforming a doomed and dying dictatorship.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Yes.

ETA: But I should add that there are probably signs one could find that Assad is about to crack. So probably, the return of peace and stability and food availability is just around to corner. Right?

Once the conflict comes to an end, full food, medicine, and other aid services can resume.

Until than, it is just a waiting game, one that many of those who are short on food, medicine, and who are being bombed daily will not make it through.


The major turning point will come when Assad is killed, captured to be put on trial for his war crimes, or removed in way or another by members of the regime in Damascus who do not want to see him to continue to take the country down with him in Assad's doomed and pointless campaign of death and destruction.

Negotiations for remnants in the regime would be under much better terms for them if they were to secure a stronger hand by removing Assad sooner, rather than waiting for the FSA to do it themselves.