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Let me again amend my guess for how the soon-to-be-infamous Eid cease-fire will end: After some thought on the first round, I predict the rebel narrative will be "yeah, we said we wouldn't comply, and we attacked. They said they'd retaliate, and this is their revenge. They responded with a new massacre of civilians, including as many children as possible. We control all the evidence, here's a video."
If kids wind up killed, not just injured, in the rebel bombing of the homes of police officers, that's bad PR in and of itself but in light of what's set next, that will be used to help explain why the regime chose the unacceptable route of revenge. Most will believe it.
Now I will go check on that. Expected to be happening now, in the last few hours, or next few hours.
According to a Google News search, no fulfillment of the prophecy yet. But the motive is set. Kids were apparently killed, at a playground. The rebels want us to know this, and they instantly blame the government itself.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/26/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html
...Some of the dead were reported to be children.
The blast seemed to mock the truce that the Syrian government and rebels agreed to abide by earlier this week.
...
Rebels said the blast went off near a playground.
...
About 15 minutes after the blast, Syria security forces showed up and shot directly at someone filming the scene, a source who CNN has spoken with before inside Syria recounted. CNN is not naming her to protect her safety.
"The people were mad with grief, with rage," she said.
A small demonstration formed, as Syrians chanted against the Assad regime, she said.
They immediately blamed President Bashar al-Assad's forces for the bomb.
"The whole neighborhood came down to the street," she said.
Sound legit, right? They even staged it themselves. But they say they believe rebels did it, so... We'll keep some kind of tabs on this
here.
The new massacres I did find actually pre-date the cease-fire, October 23:
About 25 killed by "Shabiha" or "terrorists," depending who you ask, in rebel-held Douma, Damascus' center for Icky Islamo-nihilist atrocities like
this and
this (further parts of the "5%" I'm starting to think is closer to 10%, maybe pushing 20 included with CE's and Petri's work, all combined). It was in a residential (apartment?) building, some were killed with knives, women and children were included, some mutilated, but it's no Houla for scale and too early to be my prophecy's fulfillment. It's
added to the wiki though.
And
a bakery was shelled in the rebel-held Hanano district of Aleppo, not quite a bread line, but
I'm noting it. Hanano is where those 20 soldiers were famously executed about a month ago. (less famously, some of them might be women, and at least as many civilian men were also bound and executed in a place and time that seem to be about the same as the soldiers. see
here). This new shelling also was a regime crime, designed to terrorize people and color the upcoming cease-fire plan blood red. Children were killed there too.
Tomorrow I'll be busy, and might not get to report back until Sunday, so anyone else feel free to let me know if once again efforts at peace in Syria have been crushed by the slaughter of underage innocents, allegedly by the "regime."
I'll add one final prediction on locale - given the first offensives in Dara'a, Damascus, and Aleppo, the rebels in Homs district and perhaps Deir Azour should be well rested. Expect the regime's shadow killers to allegedly extract their revenge in one of those places, more likely Homs (including Hama and that whole area). Somewhere nothing happened yesterday.
