I'm actually wondering if we might see a split decision. Neither enough to come close to convict, but still a noticeable difference between the two.
I can't put my finger on why, and to be clear this is one step removed from pure speculation so take it for what it's worth, but I just have a gut feeling that for the people on the fence the "obstruction of justice" charge is going to be easier to swallow then the "abuse of power" and the way for some of the people to "Bet 50 on black and 50 on red" so to speak.
I can see, again just on a gut level, the final vote for the "Obstruction of Justice" charge having a few more "Yay" votes then the "Abuse of Power" charges.
I wouldn't be totally shocked if the "obstruction" charge just barely gets to that 51 symbolic simple majority and the "abuse" charges stay well below it.
Or I could be completely wrong. Rolling dice in the dark here.