Haig and his Sun caused earthquakes

[Checkmite]

As a counterpoint to this theory I would like to introduce the eruption of the Bárðarbunga volcano in Iceland - a Hawaiian-type eruption that began when the fissure opened up in August of last year and had been flowing steadily since that time until about a month ago, when activity began to sharply decline. The eruption ended three days ago.

 

[Reality Check]

As a counterpoint to this theory I would like to introduce the eruption of the Bárðarbunga volcano in Iceland....

Hi Checkmite. Haig's little fantasy is to do with earthquakes, not volcanoes. To be more exact, that is Haig's blind regurgitation of a fantasy in a crank YouTube video .
The paper Haig cites is Influences of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes (PDF) in the low impact Natural Sciences journal. The authors simple note correlations and do no serious statistical analysis.
And what does serious statistical analysis by geophysicists show?
Does the sun trigger earthquakes? (also published in Natural Sciences)

Tavares and Azevedo [1] showed in their article, that there existed a correlation between the solar cycles and the earthquake activity. In their study they used both ancient records, as well as recent seismicity between 1950 and 2010. According to them, a possible link between solar activity and earthquake occurrence is the magnetic field of the earth, that is being changed in shape corresponding to the solar cycles and thus exerts a pressure on the earth’s crust. This study tries to test their results by means of correlation and cointegration, not only using recent solar and earthquake data, but also taking measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field strength into account. The results presented in this work show no clear connection between the seismicity and the 11-year solar cycles. The data rather indicates an anti-periodicity. It is not excluded, that a few strong CME events can influence the triggering of earthquake events, however, this effect is presumably small and plays only a minor roll in the faulting process.

And:
Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

 

[CapelDodger]

We know a huge volcano can bring about a global winter. I haven't heard that the Warmers have looked into, not the absence of huge volcanoes, but the quantity of small-to-mediums? Perhaps we have been having a 150 year long spell of lower total volcanic activity?

About a century of very low volcanic activity compared to the previous thousand years or so. The pause - and it really was a pause - contributed most to the global warming of the 20's and 30's (there was also a slight increase in solar activity and, of course, a slight greenhouse influence).

Ice-cores indicate that something similar happened in the century or so around 1000CE - the Medieval Warm Period.

Of course the warming forcing in this case is actually the removal of a cooling effect from volcanic aerosols. Once that's been compensated for the warming forcing ends; that happened in the 1930's. There have only been a couple of large (VE5 and above) climate-influencing volcanos since then; Pinatubo and another which escapes me, back in the 60's. These days the ups and downs of aerosols are almost entirely our doing.

Some recent research suggests that there's been some increase in aerosols due to VE4 volcanos but it's very recent. Needs work, as the saying goes.

 

[CapelDodger]

It does not matter - He is on a winner no matter what. According to this site

http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0197837.html

There are over 150 'strong Earthquakes' a year, nearly three a week.

According to this site

http://www.scholastic.com/teachers/article/volcanic-eruptions

There are 50 to 60 volcanic eruptions a year.

According to this site

http://www.scholastic.com/teachers/article/volcanic-eruptions

There are 70-110 tropical storms a year, 60 of which reach hurricane strength.

So my suggestion is it will be more unusual if something does not happen during the time period quoted.

Thanks for that. This is the old psychic's trick - nebulous predictions with a low probability of not happening.

Three strong earthquakes a week? It's a dangerous world.

 

[Haig]

This thread is still young ...

Indeed it is and it is worth considering but I have to point out the OP is misleading.

The claim isn't that the Sun is the "only cause" of earthquakes but that it can "trigger" them in certain solar outputs and circumstances and those "trigger" events can be use to predict the timing of earthquakes.

Hi Checkmite. Haig's little fantasy is to do with earthquakes, not volcanoes. To be more exact, that is Haig's blind regurgitation of a fantasy in a crank YouTube video .

Wrong and wrong again RC. you contradict yourself in your own post and haven't grasped that the mention of Piers Corbyn and SO and their ideas in the OP expands things a little.

First: it's not my fantasy! That is clear from the science papers quoted below where the issue is studied somewhat, though not supporting the idea. However, the actual solar outputs Piers Corbyn and Suspicious0bservers are citing are a bit different from those papers. i.e. Earth facing events such as coronal holes, CME's, flares, solar wind and magnetic effects. You can't have it both ways RC ... fantasy for me but worthy of science to study

Second: The main focus is on earthquakes (strong ones) but both Piers Corbyn and Suspicious0bservers also include volcanoes as being triggered by the same solar events. Nobody is saying it's certain yet ... just that the evidence is in favour of there being a connection.

The paper Haig cites is Influences of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes (PDF) in the low impact Natural Sciences journal. The authors simple note correlations and do no serious statistical analysis.
And what does serious statistical analysis by geophysicists show?
Does the sun trigger earthquakes? (also published in Natural Sciences)


And:
Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

Thanks for the links to these papers RC.

NASA have recognised recently that coronal holes are becoming much more important in times of solar minimum, in terms of their effect on our magnetosphere and hence the Earth.

New Insights On How Solar Minimums Affect Earth

Coronal holes seem to be responsible for minimizing the southward direction of the interplanetary magnetic field as well. The solar wind's magnetic fields oscillate on the journey from the sun to Earth. These fluctuations are known as Alfvén waves. The wind coming out of the centers of the coronal holes have large fluctuations, meaning that the southward magnetic component – like that in all the directions -- is fairly large. The wind that comes from the edges, however, has smaller fluctuations, and comparably smaller southward components. So, once again, coronal holes at lower latitudes would have a better chance of connecting with Earth's magnetosphere and causing geomagnetic effects, while mid-latitude holes would be less effective.

Seems like both Piers Corbyn and Suspicious0bservers could be on to something good with their insight into the Sun - Earth Connection
At the center of our solar system there is a magnetic variable star, our Sun, that affects the planets, including the Earth,

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

I suggest defending the OP claim with facts first before spamming electrogawhachamahozie nonsense in 'support' of of it.

 

[Reality Check]

Wrong and wrong again RC.

Oh the ignorance, Haig!
I cite one paper noting a correlation between sun spots and earthquakes.
I cite another paper showing that the first paper is wrong and there is no correlation between sun spots and earthquakes !
I cite another paper stating that there is no significant correlation between any solar activity and earthquakes.

You reply with the inability to understand what you read and citing a crank with no scientific work on earthquakes!

Good Haig - you are just repeating without any other thought the fantasies from a crank video then. ETA and the other crank - Piers Corbyn.

Repeating the inability to understand what you read : Two links with no mention of earthquakes

 

[Haig]

I suggest defending the OP claim with facts first before spamming electrogawhachamahozie nonsense in 'support' of of it.

The OP isn't mine to defend

I've posted my corrections and facts

Do you doubt our Sun is changing and coronal holes normally confined to the poles are moving down to the lower latitudes and bringing the massive power of their fast winds and Alfvén wave to bear directly at Earth. Are the suggestions that earthquakes and volcanic activity can be triggered by this so unlikely ?

What's wrong with the sun?

Sunspots and other clues indicate that the sun's magnetic activity is diminishing, and that the sun may even be shrinking. Together the results hint that something profound is happening inside the sun. The big question is what?

The stakes have never been higher. Groups of sunspots forewarn of gigantic solar storms that can unleash a billion times more energy than an atomic bomb. Fears that these giant solar eruptions could create havoc on EarthMovie Camera, and disputes over the sun's role in climate change, are adding urgency to these studies. When NASA and the European Space Agency launched the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory almost 15 years ago, "understanding the solar cycle was not one of its scientific objectives", says Bernhard Fleck, the mission's project scientist. "Now it is one of the key questions."

 

[Haig]

Wrong and wrong again RC.
{P/quote]
Oh the ignorance and crcakpottery, Haig!
I site one paper noting a correlation between sun spots and earthquakes.
I cite another paper showing that the first paper is wrong and there is no correlation between sun spots and earthquakes !
I site another paper stating that three is no significant correlation.

You reply with the inability to understand what you read and citing a crank with no scientific work on earthquakes!

Good Haig - you are just repeating without any other thought the fantasies from a crank video then.

Repeating the inability to understand what you read : Two links with no mention of earthquakes

I said that RC Don't you read my posts before you rant

 

[Reality Check]

I said that RC

You are right - you did say that before the usual reliance on cranks popped up, Haig.

What this science shows is there is not significant enough correlation between solar activity and earthquakes to allow predictions. Thus anyone who claims to predict earthquakes from solar activity without any better evidence (e.g. Piers Corbyn) is lying.

Suspicious0bservers is a random YouTube crank with the fantasy that earthquakes are triggered from solar activity.
ETA:

It is amazing that Haig does not seem to bother to find about the authors of the sources he relies on.
About Ben Davidson states that he has no climate science or even science credentials. He is an economist !
Ben Davidson is an Electric Universe crank - he spoke at one of their conferences. This may explain Haig's blind acceptance of anything Ben Davidson says since Haig seems to do that with the EC crank idea in general (see the Electric Comet thread).

Add to this that Ben Davidson is not a geophysicist and possibly has no idea what it takes to trigger an earthquake.

 

[Reality Check]

Do you doubt our Sun is changing ...

Do you doubt that earthquakes happen on Earth, Haig .
The fact that the Sun does the things that a star does is not the subject of this thread. It is not reasonable or likely that earthquakes will be triggered by anything you say that they can be triggered by without evidence, Haig. That is a fundamental part of science - if you are presenting a theory then present the supporting evidence.

 

[Pixel42]

Piers Corbyn, yet; there's a name I haven't heard for a while. It seems he still has one true believer left in Haig. That's Piers Corbyn the lunar tick, who announced that the world had already entered a long-term cooling-phase in 2007. Haig was all over that at the time.

Remember that thread a few years back where Haig kept quoting Corbyn's predictions and his claim to be 80% accurate? I kept track of 10 of them over the course of the next year; only two turned out to be correct. Corbyn's most egregious failure was predicting that the UK would have a colder than average spring. It was actually the warmest on record.

 

[CapelDodger]

Remember that thread a few years back where Haig kept quoting Corbyn's predictions and his claim to be 80% accurate? I kept track of 10 of them over the course of the next year; only two turned out to be correct. Corbyn's most egregious failure was predicting that the UK would have a colder than average spring. It was actually the warmest on record.

I do indeed recall. Haig's faith in Corbyn's accuracy (and probity) was based on a Corbyn cherry-pick (two years data on US storms from the 80's, as a I recall). Corbyn refuses to release all of his past predictions for independent analysis but this does not trigger the slightest glimmer of doubt in Haig.

 

[aleCcowaN]

NASA have recognised recently that coronal holes are becoming much more important in times of solar minimum, in terms of their effect on our magnetosphere and hence the Earth.

New Insights On How Solar Minimums Affect Earth



Seems like both Piers Corbyn and Suspicious0bservers could be on to something good with their insight into the Sun - Earth Connection
At the center of our solar system there is a magnetic variable star, our Sun, that affects the planets, including the Earth,

In fact, other person provided the paper you failed to link and you are moving into "the Sun does it" general fantasy of yours, jumping from topic to topic like a hummingbird.

I suggest you to keep yourself on-topic and provide accurate information regarding solar influences on earthquakes, instead of general poppycock and promotion of your commercial properties.

 

[aleCcowaN]

... this does not trigger the slightest glimmer of doubt in Haig.

The Jean Dixon's is too much a powerful effect for him to do without

 

[Haig]

Remember that thread a few years back where Haig kept quoting Corbyn's predictions and his claim to be 80% accurate? I kept track of 10 of them over the course of the next year; only two turned out to be correct. Corbyn's most egregious failure was predicting that the UK would have a colder than average spring. It was actually the warmest on record.

I do indeed recall. Haig's faith in Corbyn's accuracy (and probity) was based on a Corbyn cherry-pick (two years data on US storms from the 80's, as a I recall). Corbyn refuses to release all of his past predictions for independent analysis but this does not trigger the slightest glimmer of doubt in Haig.

Piers Corbyn is still doing great

British Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn Forecasts Earthquake Between March 23-27

Corbyn writes that the very active solar region which emerged from the SE limb of the sun on the morning of March 21st is crackling with dangerous activity, including extreme UV radiation and up to 50Mev proton bursts, and that its appearance along with other active regions on the sun "fits our WeatherAction.com long-range WARNING for significant weather extremes and earthquakes in the period around 23rd-27th March."

He cites the fact that a solar wind stream from a coronal hole will hit Earth March 23/24th; the newly reported activity on the Sun will lead to Earth hits following that.

"The recent extreme Earthquake events in the world were preceded by extreme events on the sun — specifically X-level solar flares and related proton bursts. It appears to us that it is always the case that extreme weather and earthquake events are preceded by extreme events on the sun, and historically proton events, which are usually associated with X flares, are an especially reliable warning of extreme weather, storm formation, and earthquake events. We have no forecast of specifically where the earthquake events are most likely, except to say that the Pacific 'ring of fire' is very vulnerable and new serious earthquake events in Japan and /or the West USA are very possible. Some other researchers [referring to Berkland] have also been making warnings of earthquake events around the present period. My main risk periods are a bit later than theirs because although lunar tidal effects (such as 'Supermoon' 19th March) are important, we find the solar hits are crucial determinants."

A point to note is his earthquake and volcano forecasts are "trials" as he makes clear here ...

Major Earthquake + Volcano Trial Risk

His long range weather forecasting is still by far the best around Forecast Accuracy

In fact, other person provided the paper you failed to link and you are moving into "the Sun does it" general fantasy of yours, jumping from topic to topic like a hummingbird.

Sure, RC did what you should have done. I'm not here to always do it for you !

I suggest you to keep yourself on-topic and provide accurate information regarding solar influences on earthquakes, instead of general poppycock and promotion of your commercial properties.

I suggest you realise that this is a thread that you started

"Haig and his the Sun caused triggered earthquakes + volcano's "

There I've fixed the title for you

Coronal Holes | Sun Series 8

Volcano Fire, Quakes, Huge News | S0 News March 4, 2015

RECORD-BREAKING STORM ACTIVITY ON URANUS IN 2014

 

[Andy_Ross]

It seems that Haig supports anything that opposes mainstream science.

We all know the cranks and loons are the only ones who know what's really going on.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Sure, RC did what you should have done. I'm not here to always do it for you !

No, he did what you said you had done. It's not strange that you failed to effectively provide the only element resembling a scientific paper within all your wall of links.

I suggest you realise that this is a thread that you started

"Haig and his the Sun caused triggered earthquakes + volcano's "

There I've fixed the title for you

Well, you may ask the thread title to be changed, but wait ... you didn't consider the Haig part to be wrong with it. How revealing ...

I'm still waiting for you to offer some evidence other than name dropping (Jean Dixon Corbyn), spamming (your youtube videos and your website) and unrelated elements (some storms happening in Uranus which are not earthquakes -no pun intended-)

Provide an actual paper yourself and I'll start dissecting it. We know you know your Dale Carnegie very well but, do you know your science?

Why didn't you start linking these threads in your website and mentioning them in your videos? ... bad for business?

 

[Tolls]

British Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn Forecasts Earthquake Between March 23-27

From MG1962's post earlier in the thread:
"There are over 150 'strong Earthquakes' a year, nearly three a week."

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

The OP isn't mine to defend

I've posted my corrections and facts

Do you doubt our Sun is changing and coronal holes normally confined to the poles are moving down to the lower latitudes and bringing the massive power of their fast winds and Alfvén wave to bear directly at Earth.

Okay. Not my area of subject matter expertise. I'll defer to the actual scientists on this issue. Got any?

Are the suggestions that earthquakes and volcanic activity can be triggered by this so unlikely ?

Horsepoop. No matter how bright a flashlight I shine on it I can't get this batch of concrete to mix. What should I try next? Loud music or magnets?