Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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You're a mind reader then? It's the truth. Your posts are incoherent messes.



Winters globally have been getting hotter, not colder.



I can't understand you. I can understand that the claim that winters have been getting colder is a load of tosh.

READ the article from skeptical science. READ it and understand that the author is talking about WEATHER and not CLIMATE.

ETA: Again you dishonestly snipped my post. Your agenda is getting clearer.

R-j, putting aside for the moment that your claim that winters are getting colder is demonstrably false, you seem to believe that you are making some kind of point with it. What is that point? You've failed to communicate what conclusion about AGW you are drawing from your erroneous belief about colder winters. This is why we say your posts are incoherent: You are not making any point, just laying out (incorrect) premises. State succinctly what your entire argument is, please.


If you are asking yourself that, you fail to understand the difference between weather and climate. We know you can't understand this difference. You have shown so repeatedly.



Yes, the cold local winter in some areas of the world is a sign of global warming. Climate change is a broader phrase than global warming. Both are correct. Again, you fail to understand the difference between climate and weather, global and local.



Again, yes. Locally, winter is getting harsher. Globally, that is not the case.




Correct. Harsher winters locally support global warming.

Was this your whole point? If so, thank you for accepting what we have known for quite some time.


I was going to snip some of the ;last post from uke2se but decieded it wasn't needed.

Looking at the first map image in the link quoted below,you see that Europe, some of the Pacific, and bits of Antarctica are slightly cooler, whilst Siberia and the Arctic is a lot warmer.

As has been said before *GLOBALLY* winters are not getting colder.
 
Actually skeptical science has a nice creative commons GIF

here



Escalator_2012_500.gif
 
Do you mean Gulfstream and waterflows?
That's not what is currently being discussed, no.

The Gulf stream keeps northern Europe a degree or two warmer than it would otherwise be, but it's the jet stream that's responsible for the "warm wet westerly winds in Winter" (as I was taught to recite in primary school), and it's the jet stream that's been meandering.
 
No-one here has denied that some areas have experienced unusually cold weather during winter in some recent years.
Nobody claimed that recently in this thread..

This was known by most posters here before you arrived in this thread, and the work of investigating the reasons why was already being followed with interest.
Perhaps, but that isn't what I brought up. Why are you bringing it up?
The fact that some areas are experiencing spells of unusually cold weather during winter does not mean that winters are getting colder overall, even in those areas, let alone globally.
Nobody said any of that. If you must argue, at least copy and paste what was said, then respond. Making up something and then arguing with what you said, that isn't honest.

The latter was what you originally appeared to be claiming, but even the former is a debatable claim.

Nonsense. Once again, don't just make up nonsense, and try and attribute it to somebody else. Dishonest. That which started this off is still right where it is. "Winters have been getting colder. If this had been predicted as part of global warming, we would be hearing about how cold it's been, and crying over global warming"
Because I was repeating what many articles, papers and reports had said, it isn't even my claim. This ws made clear by our first exchange, which nobody had any trouble understanding.
See? Now, after we all get over the shock, we can start complaining about global warming while we are buried in snow.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

Clearly cold winters are the next horror that global warming will bring upon us. Warming causes cooling!

http://www.greenbang.com/global-warming-might-cause-colder-winters-more-snow_21263.html

See? So quit complaining that your roof collapsed from record snow, you can't get a flight or even drive anywhere, and start doing something about global warming. Because it's really starting to mess with the weather.

If it's the underlying warming that's causing the changes in weather patterns that are resulting in some areas experiencing more severe winters - and the evidence is pretty compelling that it is - then the solution to the problem of rooves collapsing from record snow and not being able to get a flight or even drive anywhere is to tackle the underlying warming, yes.

I'm sorry if that's too much for some people to wrap their heads round, but there are many aspects of reality that are counterintuitive.

Even with my annoying repetition of the facts, it is claimed it's hard to understand and seems like ranting or something, I'm no sure what the snipers actually were trying to say. But back to your most recent post.
The apparent contradiction of global warming causing localised cold spells has been seized on by many deniers as evidence it's all nonsense, and the sarcastic tone of your first posts on this thread certainly suggested that was your position.
That may be your opinion, but I never said any of that. I noted that winters are getting colder (trend), not that the entire world is. Some places the winters are still trending up, as we will see in the links that follow.

If that wasn't what you were intending to suggest, you need to clarify what your position really is.

I don't have to defend against something people make up in their heads. I was clear about what I wrote. That I seem sarcastic and annoyed at the cold, that doesn't change the facts in any way.

Since nobody here seems to know how to actually check the data, the entire thing has become quite a source of amusement. If somebody claimed it was 105 degrees F today in Buffalo New York, I wouldn't bother to even argue with them. But I very well might post a link to the weather station for Buffalo.

If you claim winters are warming, and faster than any other time, just show the data. That's scientific method.
 
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I noted that winters are getting colder (trend)

and you are still wrong....for all the fluff above....you cannot even acknowledge that glaring error in your understanding. :rolleyes:

Data without comprehension is entirely useless. You don't have a sound understanding of the mechanisms at work so you are making errors and being challenged on them.

Until you are willing to acknowledge that - then the amusement is that of you're being a chew toy for those that do have a decent grasp of the principles,

If you claim winters are warming,
Just in this statement alone you show your lack of understanding.
You have been given ample evidence of long term trends ( 65 years in one case of warming winter average over a large portion of the planet ( Canada ).
There is no IF.

You have been given the mechanism for the the localized cold snaps.
Yet you still strut about like some wronged victim in possession of superior knowledge....

It's getting old.
 
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All that time wasting nonsense doesn't actually educate anyone.

The NCDC data clearly shows what is happening, and isn't even disputed by most, no matter what their leaning is. (and since when does what you believe change the temperature data? absurd in the extreme)

Here's a look at both sides, and they both are wrong in their methods. It's why I put little trust in anyone promoting their religious like views of climate. I find it disgusting that the weather has become a fight at the level of how many angels can dance on a pin head.

The "warming is awful" view
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590

Their agenda is obvious. The color code alone is insulting. But it's real data at least. I checked.

The "warming has stopped" view

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NCDC_Winters.pdf

Obviously by choosing a short time period they make it look really bad. Again, the data is accurate (I checked)

Now once you look at the data, and realize that in the US, the winters are getting colder, you will quite rightly object to the amount of time for the trend. This objection is quite valid, all the more so for using data since 1970 to show warming.

The truth is, as is so often the case, somewhere in between the two extremes.

Of course real climate science knows what is happening with the winters. That's why we are seeing more and more papers attempting to blame the cooling trend on global warming. That nobody here seems to know this is surprising. Obviously there are some firmly held beliefs being challenged just to state the obvious.

That winters have been getting colder.

Not just some cold spells, not just extremes, not just a few isolated areas. Stop living in denial about this.
 
I and others have shown that in Florida you just had a much warmer than average Winter. You escaped to the last couple of weeks.

Now you're talking about winters in the US. I doubt it, but still haven't checked the data.

It is irrelevant, however, since we are talking about AGW... wanna guess what the G stands for?
 
The best way to persuade somebody, assuming they actually want to know, is to show them the data. If they argue that the data is fake, you are out of luck.

But I have to trust the NCDC isn't fudging the numbers. I also did some checking, and there reports match the weather records, which makes perfect sense, since they get their data from the weather records.

No doubt at all that winters (trend) have been getting colder. Just as there is no doubt they were getting warmer during the warming 30 years ago.
 
BTW, your link is lying.

Ten years is by far not long enough to establish a significant trend in heavily auto-correlated data.

Also, the "average temperature" is misleading. All of those values are far above the 20th century average. Using the average of the decade at hand is at least misleading.
 
Also, the "average temperature" is misleading. All of those values are far above the 20th century average.

Once again you are wrong. The black line is the 1901-2000 average temperature. And obviously "All of those values are far above" is nonsense.

Learn to read a graph.

Then look at the southeast graph, and you will see why Florida (and the entire southeast) suffered so much of late.
 
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Now, the astute reader will note the next change in the responses. It will be something along the lines of "The US is not the world", or "the US doesn't matter", or "the world is still warming", or "So what is your point?", anything other than simply responding to the facts on the table.

The rebuke "you are just talking about weather", when obviously we are discussing trends, long term changes, will become more fun as time goes by.
 
As I said, I will look at the data myself, since I don't trust someone who graphs 10 years of temp. data and takes conclusions out of them.

I accept that I might be wrong regarding the average value presented, since I normally analyze the global set, not the US one.

I'll get back to this later.
 
Now you're talking about winters in the US. I doubt it, but still haven't checked the data.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

Plots whatever you want.

I'm looking at the plot for the temperature of the winter months (December-February) in the contiguous US since 1895. Strangely enough I can't see any cooling trend, not even if I only look at the last few years.

ETA: OK, if I set it to just show the last 10 years and then calculate the trend it shows a very small downward trend of half a degree Fahrenheit since 2004.
 
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No doubt at all that winters (trend) have been getting colder. Just as there is no doubt they were getting warmer during the warming 30 years ago.

Jesus Christ, you are WRONG! That has been shown time after time. Winters aren't trending towards getting colder.

I simply cannot imagine anyone stupid enough to fail to see that he's wrong after being corrected so many times, so I must now conclude that you are being intentionally dishonest, lying in your posts.

Stop lying.
 
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

Plots whatever you want.

I'm looking at the plot for the temperature of the winter months (December-February) in the contiguous US since 1895. Strangely enough I can't see any cooling trend, not even if I only look at the last few years.

Excelent link,Thank you!

First, my apologies. The link presents the real average temperature for the 20th Century. My mistake.

Second, the apparent trends are completely erased by the last couple of Winters. It's simple for anybody to verify. The exceptions are the West, Northwest and Southwest regions, where the "trend" seems to continue. I'll try to check for the significance of these trends later, but with 11 data points I doubt it's significant.

Third, the winter temperatures of the US48 seems not to have a trend, but only 9 of the last 30 Winters were below the 20th Century average (and 3 of the last 15). But without statistical analysis it's just another factoid.

What is apparent (conditional to stats) is that the Winters have not become significantly colder in the last 10 years.
 
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