Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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The behaviour of the jetstream is what determines how far south cold air gets in winter (and how far north warm air gets; Nature abhors a vacuum).

Utter nonsense, and a popular myth.

Contrary to popular belief, the jet stream does not "cause" weather conditions of a certain type to occur. Its existence is instead the result of certain weather conditions (a large temperature contrast between two air masses).
http://www.weatherquestions.com/What_causes_the_jet_stream.htm

Tell me how these studies of recent winters could have been performed and published before these episodes. I doubt I'm alone in wanting to hear that.

Don't be silly. The papers started after the cold winters, which is obvious if you read them. Trying to twist somebodies words is a woo woo trick. Stop it.

Where did you find the data which suggests otherwise?

If you don't know how to check the records, what are you doing posting here? Much less acting like some sort of expert?

Same for the outrageous posting of one brief temperature graph, that ends in February, to try and counter the fact that March was unusually cold. Disgusting and dishonest.

And trying to say it disproves the trend of colder winters is just so stupid it's not worth refuting. You posted one year and claim it means "the winters are getting warmer". And you can't see it.
 
The behaviour of the jetstream is what determines how far south cold air gets in winter (and how far north warm air gets; Nature abhors a vacuum).

I said to post a scientific source to support that absurd statement. That Buckaroo then posts a link to a paper that never mentions the jet stream, now that is starting to seem like par for this course.


A good argument for avoiding a quick Google search, and then just linking to a study with out actually reading it.
 
I said to post a scientific source to support that absurd statement. That Buckaroo then posts a link to a paper that never mentions the jet stream, now that is starting to seem like par for this course.



A good argument for avoiding a quick Google search, and then just linking to a study with out actually reading it.


Would you like to explain to me what a Rossby wave is? Go on, educate me. This should be good.
 
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Insults are the sign of a small mind.

JET STREAM
An area of strong winds that are concentrated in a relatively narrow band in the upper troposphere of the middle latitudes and subtropical regions of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Flowing in a semi-continuous band around the globe from west to east, it is caused by the changes in air temperature where the cold polar air moving towards the equator meets the warmer equatorial air moving polarward. It is marked by a concentration of isotherms and strong vertical shear.
http://www.weather.com/glossary/j.html

This is basic information. That you don't know this, well, it isn't making me look bad.
 
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Don't be silly. The papers started after the cold winters, which is obvious if you read them. Trying to twist somebodies words is a woo woo trick. Stop it.
That's not what he's doing. He's agreeing that the papers analysing past winters were published after those winters, and asking you how they could possibly have been published before.

The regional consequences of an underlying global warming trend are extremely hard to predict in advance, models capable of doing so have only recently been developed and are still fairly primitive. Once the consequences have happened it's relatively easy to work out the sequence of events that led to them, but predicting that sequence of events and their consequences in advance is a bugger. Having said that, I do recall reading papers which suggested that changes in weather patterns due to the warming Arctic would lead to some areas of the Northern hemisphere having severe winters around 2007, before most of the recent regional extreme cold events occured.

Same for the outrageous posting of one brief temperature graph, that ends in February, to try and counter the fact that March was unusually cold. Disgusting and dishonest.
The data for March isn't out yet, on account of the fact that it's still March. The data for December-February (which is what meteorologists designate winter, March is the first month of the meterological spring) was posted to show that the winter just passed didn't set any records for cold in Florida, which is what you appeared to be claiming.

And trying to say it disproves the trend of colder winters is just so stupid it's not worth refuting. You posted one year and claim it means "the winters are getting warmer". And you can't see it.
No, we posted the data for the most recent US winter to show that the most recent US winter was not exceptionally cold for most states, including Florida. Again, it appeared to us that that was what you were claiming. If it wasn't what you were saying, maybe you should try to be a little clearer as to what it is you are saying.
 
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I said to post a scientific source to support that absurd statement.
I did a search for jet stream on science daily, this seems to be the most recent relevant paper.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120606132420.htm

ETA relevant paragraph:

A warmer Earth increases the melting of sea ice during summer, exposing darker ocean water to incoming sunlight. This causes increased absorption of solar radiation and excess summertime heating of the ocean -- further accelerating the ice melt. The excess heat is released to the atmosphere, especially during the autumn, decreasing the temperature and atmospheric pressure gradients between the Arctic and middle latitudes.

A diminished latitudinal pressure gradient is associated with a weakening of the winds associated with the polar vortex and jet stream. Since the polar vortex normally retains the cold Arctic air masses up above the Arctic Circle, its weakening allows the cold air to invade lower latitudes.
 
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And trying to say it disproves the trend of colder winters is just so stupid it's not worth refuting. You posted one year and claim it means "the winters are getting warmer". And you can't see it.

Put a cork in it....

Jan 21, 2013 – In the past 65 years, Canada's national average winter temperature has risen 3.2 degrees. This reaffirms what many suspected. .

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...anadian-health-infrastructure/article7614461/

Canada is the second largest nation on the planet and that increase is astonishing.

You conflate regional weather shifts which are strongly influence by the jet stream with climate change which measures trending over time.

In the case of the Arctic, the ocean is opening to such an extent that it has split the polar high that used to sit over the poles and instead sits over the continents on eiether side of the polar regions which in turn puts colder air further south more often than in the past. Read the science and be done with anecdotal crap.
http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/warmarctic.html
All your blathering is total poppycock

Bottom line
It's getting warmer, we're responsible.
The further north, the greater the change and weather extremes are part and parcel of more moisture and more energy in the atmosphere

Climatologists say that changes in the jet streams are closely tied to global warming, especially the polar jet streams, because there is a great deal of evidence that the North and South poles are warming faster than the remainder of the planet. When the jets streams are warmer, their ups and downs become more extreme, bringing different types of weather to areas that are not accustomed to climate variations. If the jet stream dips south, for example, it takes the colder air masses with it.

http://www.livescience.com/27825-jet-stream.html

Now can we get on with discussing some of the better approaches to dealing with the reality of AGW impacts instead of dealing with anecdotal whinging from the denier cadre. :rolleyes:
 
Oh this says quite well what I have observed over the last few years.

POSTED ON SEPTEMBER 14TH 2012 We agree completely, except for the "climate denier" term. No one objects to the abstraction "climate" or to the assertion that climate changes over time. Here: "The clear distinction between a scientist and a climate denier (or indeed anyone who has pre-decided what they want) is that the scientist needs very good reasons for discarding or selecting data whereas the denier just needs to know what result they want" we agree completely. We just differ as to which people these words describe.

Like what we saw in the last few days. I answered the unscientific musings about why the topic was dead, by joking that maybe everybody was stuck in the snow and cold up north. (and as I type the snow is still coming down)

You can see the response to that. which wasn't basded on science, or even data.

Then I pointed out winters have been trending down, and we see unscientific comments, including denial of the records.

...

Interesting observation of yours. I there anybody here you regard as "discarding or selecting data" because they have "pre-decided what they want"? Apart from the usual suspects we can all agree on, of course. Further to that, what data do you feel is being discarded that you regard as evidence against AGW being a real and significant problem?

Maybe you should just leave off the joking because it doesn't seem to be your strong suit. I still can't see the joke after you've pointed out there is one.

That's not usually the sort of response one seeks with a joke. Like I say, maybe the subject isn't your natural thing.

...

Please, don't waste your efforts, my friend. Just look who s/he quoted and the date of the notion kept by this person. One may think that God grows uneducated narcissists and then the wind piles them up in the same corner, but in fact there's been also here a pattern of people returning under new names in short raids with the same old, same old, most noticeable the guy with the muppet avatar, the guy with the emperor name and at least once the guy with the "Third Man" avatar. Ah, and don't forget the gender mutant with the hysterical flavour. They circumvent their bans or their ill fame here and also show an image of a bunch of people holding similar opinions, while they promote the notion that the same crap is still trendy.

But this is not the case now. We're most probably seeing only something like a bad sketch of Statler and Waldorf as a part of a new approach in debate: the Alzheimer's stage.

Above, in purple, is the typical r-j-style statement. Here's what he was replied a couple of days ago:

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Well here is the unusually cold winter r-j was referring to. Defined for Florida as "much above normal"...

If only the temperature scale was reversed, he would be right.

And of course he replied in style:

Some people are so stupid. I say the last two weeks have been unusually cold, and they then act like somebody claimed the whole winter was cold.

Then they quote old articles on winter temperatures, instead of looking at the facts.

I would educate you, but it won't matter. Faith isn't swayed by facts.

But now he comes back as he's inventing a down trend that suits his preconceptions. Of course, it's just the most elemental case of cherry picking: s/he's sure about that information because s/he felt the cold in the veins, and that was intense and surely intellectually reassuring :rolleyes:

If there's any doubt, here are the records for the last years:

For Winters:

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And for the latter part of Winter:

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So, there's no trend, there's nothing, just a case of cherry picking similar to "it always rains during the weekend".

As this r-j person is probably going to be here hundreds of posts, like her/is doppelgänger, Malcolm, I'll continue with this in future posts. By now, I only can tell you all that this r-j person is applying the technique that makes the common flu virus a success: to constantly mutate, even to change from GW denier to GW paladin, and back again.
 
I am not claiming anything. What I said is based on all the official records of temperature, which if you bother to check you will see for yourself. Same for everyone else here. Try reading a real science source, not Wikipedia or realclimate

You don't know what you are talking about. One reason for not getting your information from some blog.



Utter nonsense. You obviously read such tripe on the internet. try talking to somebody who actually has a degree.

Of course if you insist you are correct, just post a real science source that supports your crazy idea.

We would love to see this.

can you demonstrate any factual errors on realclimate?
its a blog by real climate scientists. what is your problem with it? where have they been wrong?
 
How entertaining. Like a climate scientist trying to erase the past, we see the effort to try and control the very history of the debate here.
Now can we get on with discussing some of the better approaches to dealing with the reality of AGW impacts instead of dealing with anecdotal whinging from the denier cadre. :rolleyes:

But that wasn't what was happening at all, as anyone following can easily see. The weather was being discussed, along with some crowing about being right.
In their hearts the deniers know they're screwed, and we old-timers always knew the Arctic was where it would happen most publicly.
It's the obvious delight that the worst sort of quack engages in, in regards to the disaster they imagine is coming, that makes a mockery of their "concern" over the planet. No discussion of any solution or mitigation, just name calling and a smug superior attitude. And of course some fallacious talk about weather
We are getting blocking patterns more frequently down south as well.
By this of course Australia. Which in no way can be under the influence of record low sea ice, much less weakening of the polar vortex down under. But fortunately we see
Oh goodness, what I repeated had already been discussed! With a link no less. But no one seemed to notice. back to the weather it is then.
South East Australia, in particular Melbourne, experiencing a record heat wave that is easily smashing all the records. The recorded high temperatures are typically higher than those forecast. This after another heat wave just a month before, and what was called an 'angry summer' that saw record highs across the whole country.

Like the Russian heat wave, (IIRC, and others), this is being caused by a stationary high pressure system that is pushing away all cool changes. Are these something new? Are they related to global warming?
Good questions. Also note how the same mechanism is blamed for not letting cold air come down, that also forces cold air down. It's a magic jet stream. Then that fateful post.
Yeah was noticing how quiet it had become...white flag of surrender perhaps.
Again, discussing some imagined group that you are at war with, and that they ignore you, that is considered you winning.
I was stunned by the Canadian figures showing a 3.2 C increase in average winter temps over 60 years - that i
That's because it's not real. The arctic areas have warmed, a lot. The rest of Canada has not benefited as much from the winter warming. The early spring has been a huge blessing however, as it extends the growing season, and has reduced late frosts.
The geo-politics in the Arctic tho will be the decadal entertainment.
Again, the glee and description of a looming disaster as "entertainment" is outrageous.
Put a cork in it....
 
How entertaining. Like a climate scientist trying to erase the past, we see the effort to try and control the very history of the debate here.

Months have passed and innuendo seems to be the only thing you have. I told you it was a matter of morality and you have spared no effort to prove I'm quite right.

Ignorance and/or mild cognitive deterioration don't excuse you from distinguishing right from wrong and doing what is right (The difference between amorality and immorality that a previous poster couldn't grasp)
 
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If you can't stomach people complaining about the record cold, while they are being preached down to about global warming, you might want to get out of the kitchen.

The teeth-chattering cold snap that has caught many Canadians off-guard, seizing vehicle engines and setting cold-weather records in many parts of the country, is expected to last at least until the weekend.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/01/23/canada-cold-weather-wrap.html

Now stop casting stones and plant some trees.
 
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If you can't stomach people complaining about the record cold, while they are being preached down to about global warming, you might want to get out of the kitchen.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/01/23/canada-cold-weather-wrap.html

Now stop casting stones and plant some trees.

Stop replying my posts with garbage.

I have half an acre of trees planted (they should be about 4-5 feet tall now) in a 1 and 3/4 acre lot in a more rural location that I had bought not long time ago to build my home in the near future -but I'll probably sell it for many reasons and buy elsewhere-. You are not going to believe me anyway.

There's still the problem of your continuous misbehaviour and bad faith towards the debate in this thread.
 
ok i take that as a no, you can't find anything wrong with realclimate, it merely contradicts your belief and that is the only reason you dislike the website.
 
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