Moderated Global Warming Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
ok i take that as a no, you can't find anything wrong with realclimate, it merely contradicts your belief and that is the only reason you dislike the website.

Then you would be wrong. realclimate has no current research posted on the increasing snowfall, cold harsh winters, or the jet streams (that can be found using their search, or Google search)

Cold Winters Caused by Warmer Summers, Research Suggests
Jan. 16, 2012 — Scientists have offered up a convincing explanation for the harsh winters recently experienced in the Northern Hemisphere; increasing temperatures and melting ice in the Arctic regions creating more snowfall in the autumn months at lower latitudes.

Their findings may throw light on specific weather incidents such as the extremely harsh Florida winter of 2010 which ended up killing a host of tropical creatures, as well as the chaos-causing snow that fell on the UK in December 2010.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112193430.htm

If the new idea that melting sea ice can lead to colder winters (which is quite possible of course), then we have not only a possible mechanism to explain why winters have not been warming, and another reason to push for solutions to human caused climate change.

The problem is that ignorant people want to use a warm winter as "proof" of global warming, then also say a cold winter is also "proof" of global warming.

Or to say an Australian heat wave is proof. Or unusual cold is proof. It makes it sound like some woo woo nonsense.
 
I pity the fool that thinks Rossby waves cause the jet stream, or worse, that the jet stream causes the cold air to "move" or whatever nebulous claim you are now trying to make.

Where did I say Rossby waves cause jet streams? Rossby waves are a feature of jet streams. But since I don't believe you ever heard of Rossby waves before hastily Googling after I challenged you, I wouldn't expect you to know that. Now that you do know, however, are you prepared to admit that the paper I linked to above, the one which you didn't read, and yet claimed had nothing to do with the subject at hand because it didn't contain the phrase "jet stream," exactly addresses your request for "science" which backs up what CapelDodger was saying? Are you prepared to admit that you don't know what the **** you're talking about?

By the way, you know those first results that came up when you Googled "jet stream" so you could cut-and-paste words without understanding them? They contain MY WORK. Which is why I find this:

After you were schooled on the error of confusing the jet stream as the cause, rather than the result.

...especially amusing.

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/510155/Rossby-wave

Once again, you can see why the waves are a result, not a cause. That doesn't mean they don't matter, because they do. It's your ignorance of the cause that is irksome.

http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/SAT/Rossby/Rossbyintro.html

:rolleyes: More cutting and pasting, with zero evidence that you understand the words. Dude, you are waaaaay out of your depth.

If you feel you are being ignored in my responses, you are probably right.

I understand, I'm sure it's tough for you to keep up in a subject in which you are utterly ignorant.
 
Last edited:
I note that despite just having your ass handed to you, you still refuse to admit you were wrong. Once again: Are you going to admit that the paper I linked to above, the one which you claimed had nothing to do with the subject at hand because it didn't contain the phrase "jet stream," exactly addresses your request for "science" which backs up what CapelDodger was saying?
 
Last edited:
Nobody cares what you think. It just isn't important. After the dreadful 2010 winter the search was on to try and explain what was causing it.

Evasion noted.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2010november/

Note that on that page you can see the European winter temperatures on a graph. The downward trend is obvious, even with out the following winters. Once again, I didn't come up with the data on winters getting worse.

Which is why it's funny to see it dismissed as anecdotal evidence. Some people don't have a clue.

You do realize that you've just completely undermined your case that the jet stream does not influence weather conditions, don't you?

On second thought, you probably don't.
 
Last edited:
Then you would be wrong. realclimate has no current research posted on the increasing snowfall, cold harsh winters, or the jet streams (that can be found using their search, or Google search)

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120112193430.htm

If the new idea that melting sea ice can lead to colder winters (which is quite possible of course), then we have not only a possible mechanism to explain why winters have not been warming, and another reason to push for solutions to human caused climate change.

The problem is that ignorant people want to use a warm winter as "proof" of global warming, then also say a cold winter is also "proof" of global warming.

Or to say an Australian heat wave is proof. Or unusual cold is proof. It makes it sound like some woo woo nonsense.

stange, in your post it seemed like you have a general problem with realclimate and not only because they do have nothing about the specific problem you are talking about. good to see you have no problem with realclimate in general.
 
I clearly objected to this nonsense.
The behaviour of the jetstream is what determines how far south cold air gets in winter (and how far north warm air gets; Nature abhors a vacuum).
It's simply not true, and I showed you valid sources to support my calling nonsense on it. The cold air is what determines the jet stream, what creates it, not the other way around.

As the temperature gradient reduces between equator and poles the jetstream makes larger excursions and cold air can get as far as Florida when it wouldn't have in earlier times.
Utter tripe. The cold fronts extend farther south when the cold air mass is powerful, and it was exactly the earlier times when cold front would sweep so far south Cuba and the Bahamas suffered snow, that makes it so foolish a claim. It is when it is very cold that we see powerful jet streams, due to the difference between the air masses.

A reduced temperature differential leads to weak jet streams, and we see less wind, less precipitation (a strong jet stream is needed for snow), and less meandering of the fronts. Like in summer, where the arctic is warm, and the jet stream moves north, and is weak.

Right? It's simple
 
I clearly objected to this nonsense.
It's simply not true, and I showed you valid sources to support my calling nonsense on it. The cold air is what determines the jet stream, what creates it, not the other way around.

Utter tripe. The cold fronts extend farther south when the cold air mass is powerful, and it was exactly the earlier times when cold front would sweep so far south Cuba and the Bahamas suffered snow, that makes it so foolish a claim. It is when it is very cold that we see powerful jet streams, due to the difference between the air masses.

A reduced temperature differential leads to weak jet streams, and we see less wind, less precipitation (a strong jet stream is needed for snow), and less meandering of the fronts. Like in summer, where the arctic is warm, and the jet stream moves north, and is weak.

Right? It's simple

Here are some questions for you to meditate on, in the hope that you will achieve some epiphany: Where is the jet stream when "the cold air mass is powerful?" Where was the jet stream during your Cuban snows? What is the meandering of the fronts called (hint: it starts with "R"), and how does this meandering affect weather? Are southward excursions of this meander made impossible by a high thermal gradient, or simply unlikely? If a southward meander of the jet has occurred, is the cold air that it bounds farther north, or farther south, than it previously was? Do you think there is a connection between the answer to these questions, the paper I linked to, and CapelDodger's points? Why, or why not?
 
Last edited:
Where did you got such silly idea? I, personally, and I don't think it is much different with the rest of us, found your post to be a dramatization plenty of mistakes, not only an actor playing the scientist in your script.
... besides, I am not saying at all that the denialarabimus who says 2 plus 2 is 3 is an idiot because he doesn't share my "opinion" that it is 5 ... or pi, the right answer being 4.
Look, I don't mean to interrupt the process of strawmanization that you're trying on me and my forum colleagues, but how on Earth that character in that tale of yours, who is supposed to be some kind of a scientist, but not from the proper disciplines to deal with climate and its change, is capable to determine how much evidence is "enough" evidence? Please, refer us to the scholar material about epistemology that explains how to do that logical leap.
You can see, you started a mala fides argumentation that I and others are telling that people are idiots and fakes because they don't think as we do, and yet I am not calling you an idiot nor a fake, but just saying that you are not acting bona fide in the debate, and offering your own posts as a proof.
This response is not only for you but for all your "me and my forum colleagues " (what are you – a group, a cult?). "Scientist" of whom you blab so much is a concept, a methodology of thinking, a kind of epistemology. A good scientist in biology presented with a discussion on a subject in chemistry might be able to judge how good the science is if he understands the methodology (e.g. chromatography) the type of data support etc. Once Bruckarroo (7802) wrote "we've already heard everything you're likely to say" I immediately understood the scientific level of the "colleagues". Once same (and uke 7806) blabbed about evolution right after you guys claimed one should not make conclusive statements is areas of science he has no expertise in (or are they biologists on the subject of climate?), once you used "strawmanization" and few sentences later claimed that I claimed that you "and others are telling that people are idiots and fakes because they don't think as we do" (if you wont be able to show where I said this you will have to be considered unreliable in quoting others (delicately put), A,B,C of acceptable science), once I had realized all these then I really understood the scientific strength around here. I don't thing you understand why your 2+2 example has nothing to do with scientific theory and debate. And almost lastly, let's talk climate. Relating to my earlier remark, here is a question, that very likely your group has not heard yet: CO2 atmospheric concentration went up from roughly 280 to roughly 380ppm in the last 150 years or so. Also, carbon isotope ratio studies show significant support of a theory claiming major anthropogenic contribution to that. Can you show me where are the results of a set of thermodynamic calculations to show that this increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration matches the global air temperature change (in other words that this CO2 increase alone can account, according to theory, for the temp change observed)? Finally, loyal to our mentor's (Carl Sagan) legacy, I and others, besides our regular work, are struggling for long years now to strengthen the image of science and reputation of the scientific community among the non scientific public (mainly through frontal appearances and also writing). Some of the GW community has caused enormous damage to this image (and definitely not only because of the high profile politician and businessman, fossil fuel hog that used to be AGW movement self appointed (I hope)"representative").
 
This response is not only for you but for all your "me and my forum colleagues " ...
Oh dear, freesk - what are you using to write your posts. A random rant generator :rolleyes:?
You are posting in the Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology section of a skeptics forum.
We (in general) trust in scientific evidence as presented by the scientific community. So when 97% of climate scientists sat that AGW is happening and the scientific evidence for this is fairy easy to understand then we accept that AGW is happening.

Some of us have science backgrounds and know how scientists act.
Your "scientist" is a straw man because you make him act against what you say he is (a scientist). I might go as far as saying you make him into an idiot since the scientific evidence for AGW is strong :D.

Your example shoud read:
A …say…basic particle physicist gets interested in climate science.
Remember, he does not have an MSc. in climate science, however he can recognize the scientific reasoning and evidence that he finds.
He reads a book or two, reads the IPCC AR4 report, finds blogs run by experts on climate science, confirms that the scientific literature backs up the experts, and concludes due to his analytical thinking (not some weird 'to his liking') that GW is definitely real and is quite probably caused by us.
If he did not come to the conclusion that most scientists in the world (not only climate scientist!) agree with then there are many possibilities for his mistake (personal bias, politics, inability to understands the science, contrariness, etc.).
 
Last edited:
This response is not only for you but for all your "me and my forum colleagues " (what are you – a group, a cult?). "Scientist" of whom you blab so much is a concept, a methodology of thinking, a kind of epistemology. A good scientist in biology presented with a discussion on a subject in chemistry might be able to judge how good the science is if he understands the methodology (e.g. chromatography) the type of data support etc.

He's not going to get that type of understanding from watching the Discovery Channel. The "scientist" in your little hypothetical is still an example of a poor scientist that's not using his scientific training to understand a subject.

Once Bruckarroo (7802) wrote "we've already heard everything you're likely to say" I immediately understood the scientific level of the "colleagues".

We've had loads of global warming deniers here, and we've heard all the "arguments". That's what he meant. The scientific level of the people on these boards varies. AleCcowaN is, for example, a climate scientist. I'm a layman.

Once same (and uke 7806) blabbed about evolution right after you guys claimed one should not make conclusive statements is areas of science he has no expertise in (or are they biologists on the subject of climate?),

We "blabbed" about evolution, because you are making the same mistake an evolution denier would. A proper scientist knows better than to venture out of his field of study and make any conclusive claims. A field as complicated as climate science requires years of study to fully comprehend. A physicist, for example, might understand some of the underlying principles, but unless he's actively studied the field for a long time, he's not going to get all the intricacies. If he despite this starts shooting his mouth off about the subject in public - especially if his views contradict the vast majority of leading experts - he's most likely what we would call a McExpert - a faux expert most likely spouting from an ideological or religious bias, rather than any scientific understanding.

once you used "strawmanization" and few sentences later claimed that I claimed that you "and others are telling that people are idiots and fakes because they don't think as we do" (if you wont be able to show where I said this you will have to be considered unreliable in quoting others (delicately put), A,B,C of acceptable science),

I'm sure he meant your claim that he thought "that who does not interpret results as you do is not a scientist or a poor one."

once I had realized all these then I really understood the scientific strength around here.

You can drop this ridiculous concern trolling now. It's getting old.

I don't thing you understand why your 2+2 example has nothing to do with scientific theory and debate.

It's more likely that you don't understand why it has.

And almost lastly, let's talk climate. Relating to my earlier remark, here is a question, that very likely your group has not heard yet: CO2 atmospheric concentration went up from roughly 280 to roughly 380ppm in the last 150 years or so. Also, carbon isotope ratio studies show significant support of a theory claiming major anthropogenic contribution to that. Can you show me where are the results of a set of thermodynamic calculations to show that this increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration matches the global air temperature change (in other words that this CO2 increase alone can account, according to theory, for the temp change observed)?

If you took the time to learn a bit more about climate science, you would understand why this is a strawman. Climate science isn't saying CO2 alone is to blame for the warming. It is saying CO2 and other GHGs are principle driving factors that are setting in motion all kinds of positive feedback effects.

The link between CO2 and other GHG and the measurable increase in temperature is trivially easy to demonstrate, and it has been done most visually in the famous Hockey Stick graph, first presented by Michael Mann in 1998, and subsequently revised and corroborated by numerous others in later years (deniers have done their best to crap on this graph, but it is accepted more or less as a fact by any reputable scientific organizations by now).

Finally, loyal to our mentor's (Carl Sagan) legacy, I and others, besides our regular work, are struggling for long years now to strengthen the image of science and reputation of the scientific community among the non scientific public (mainly through frontal appearances and also writing).

Very commendable. I only wish you would take the time to actually learn a bit about science. You demonstrate ably that you aren't well versed in scientific theory, and you are apparently unaware of your short comings at least when it comes to this particular subject.

Some of the GW community has caused enormous damage to this image (and definitely not only because of the high profile politician and businessman, fossil fuel hog that used to be AGW movement self appointed (I hope)"representative").

There is no GW community. There are scientists. There is no AGW movement, and Al Gore has nothing to do with climate science. This particular canard is one of the most common we see around here, and is usually the sign of a apprentice denier, one who has seen a few Youtubes and perhaps read some of Watt's articles on Wattsuphisbutt. It further demonstrates how ill equipped you are to grasp the strength of the theories supporting AGW, and that you willingly blind yourself with ideology rather than face the simple truth:

- The Earth is demonstrably warming.
- The warming will bring drastic changes to our environment.
- We are primarily responsible.
 
Relating to my earlier remark, here is a question, that very likely your group has not heard yet: CO2 atmospheric concentration went up from roughly 280 to roughly 380ppm in the last 150 years or so. Also, carbon isotope ratio studies show significant support of a theory claiming major anthropogenic contribution to that. Can you show me where are the results of a set of thermodynamic calculations to show that this increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration matches the global air temperature change (in other words that this CO2 increase alone can account, according to theory, for the temp change observed)?

Reality Check and Uke2se have done a bang-up job responding to your rant, so I'll just add, first, there is no single equation that you can plug numbers into to spit out "air temperatures." This is why climate scientists use global climate computer models to understand the effects of AGW. These are robust, reliable predictors of future climate, within limits that are well-understood by the scientists using them. Second, your apparent belief that "air temperature" is the primary component of AGW further betrays that you know nothing of the subject that you criticize. With the most cursory survey of the state of climate science, you would have found that 90% of the change in the heat content of the climate system is going into heating the ocean, and only 10% or so into the atmosphere, the land, and ice combined, but apparently you couldn't be bothered.

You're going to have to do a little homework if you hope to be taken seriously here.
 
Last edited:
Also.....air temperature globally is transient and impacted by "in system" processes such as ENSO which are not climate forcings but impact local climate around the world ( hence the 1998 outlier deniers love to quote )

It's the much more massive cryosphere and hydrosphere changes that are measurable indicators of the scale.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Total-Heat-Content.gif

Since water and in particular melting ice take much more energy the atmosphere is are buffered from the changes .

The physics is simple...been known for a century or more....

Background/history
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

What you have to do as a denier is explain WHY in the face of known physics the increase from 280 to 380 would not increase global temperatures and provide an alternative explanation for the observed increases
( ie 3.2 degrees C average winter temp increase in Canada over 65 years as a strong example ).

Hint....there IS no valid alternative mechanism.
Every climatologist in the world wishes it AGW were not a reality as they understand the consequences.

Freesk..do YOU understand the consequences?? you clearly don't understand the physics.

•••

BTW - no one in the climate science community is claiming C02 alone is responsible....there are other more potent GHG factors including methane which is 20 x more potent but less long lasting.
And land use also plays a role.
 
Last edited:
I am not claiming anything. What I said is based on all the official records of temperature, which if you bother to check you will see for yourself. Same for everyone else here. Try reading a real science source, not Wikipedia or realclimate

Most of us consider actively publishing scientists to be real science sources, while you seem prefer to make it up as you go along.

I've linked to evidence before, and true to form you ignored it but it's easy to verify that the articles at realclimate are in fact written by currently publishing climate scientists and that the peer reviewed papers they cite in their articles do in fact say what's claimed.
 
This response is not only for you but for all your "me and my forum colleagues " (what are you – a group, a cult?). "Scientist" of whom you blab so much is a concept, a methodology of thinking, a kind of epistemology. A good scientist in biology presented with a discussion on a subject in chemistry might be able to judge how good the science is if he understands the methodology (e.g. chromatography) the type of data support etc.


I'm going to have to stop you right there...


As I already pointed out the so called scientist you invented for you example failed your own test miserably when you had him decide he could ignore the literature and form an opinion anyway based on their own "knowledge". Someone who does this is by definition not a good scientist.
 
Can you show me where are the results of a set of thermodynamic calculations to show that this increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration matches the global air temperature change (in other words that this CO2 increase alone can account, according to theory, for the temp change observed)?

There are many such papers. Just a few days ago someone posted results from a 1980's paper that didn't just calculate the rise in temperatures it predicted the subsequent rise in temperatures for an emissions scenario not much different than what has actually occurred.



This paper written nearly a decade ago not only gives the temperature rise occurring due to CO2 it looks at all the other major forcing as well.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3721:CONAAF>2.0.CO;2


For further reading I'd suggest http://www.realclimate.org/ one of the major contributors there (Gavin Schmidt) is NASA's premier expert in this area.


I would be remiss if I didn't point out that there are multiple lines of evidence that lead to this same result. It isn't just the radiative physics, the paleoclimate data gives the same result.


Finally, loyal to our mentor's (Carl Sagan) legacy,

Don't invoke Carl Sagan to justify ignoring the published science, it won't win you any brownie points.
 
Last edited:
you took the time to learn a bit more about climate science, you would understand why this is a strawman. Climate science isn't saying CO2 alone is to blame for the warming. It is saying CO2 and other GHGs are principle driving factors that are setting in motion all kinds of positive feedback effects.

- The Earth is demonstrably warming.
- The warming will bring drastic changes to our environment.
- We are primarily responsible.

Finally!!! We're getting somewhere! Few more posts and the anthropogenic claim of GW (not CO2 concentration) here will be reduced to a somewhat likely possibility among others. The science in your present post is acceptable by me. On the regular ad-hominem here I don't find it worth worthwhile for me to respond.
 
Finally!!! We're getting somewhere! Few more posts and the anthropogenic claim of GW (not CO2 concentration) here will be reduced to a somewhat likely possibility among others. The science in your present post is acceptable by me. On the regular ad-hominem here I don't find it worth worthwhile for me to respond.

A of AGW is proven beyond a reasonable doubt. that is why the vast majority of scientists in this field are convinced by it. try reading a bit of the scientific literature.
you sound like there is some controversy. outside of the denier blogs there is absolutely no controversy. just like there is no controversy outside of the geocentrists YT videos.
 
I clearly objected to this nonsense.
It's simply not true, and I showed you valid sources to support my calling nonsense on it. The cold air is what determines the jet stream, what creates it, not the other way around.

There is still going to be a lot of cold air up at the poles. The jet streams are getting it from there to where you are. The jet stream doesn't create cold air, it moves it around.
 
The science in your present post is acceptable by me.

I'll alert the press that climate science is now acceptable to freesk and now the debate can be put to bed. Seriously though, it doesn't matter whether the science is acceptable to you, me or any other individual. It is what it is regardless of whether you accept it or not.


What uke2se summarized is the most basic position of global warming and the highest level conclusion from the various IPCC report. your notion that it is somehow better than the "normal" global warming position is a strawman at best and more likely just wrong. At the highest level at least that IS the global warming position you have been disparaging.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom