Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Clearly that is not true. Notice how the regulars, who moaned at how quiet it was, how nobody could argue with them, they all refuse to respond to my points, which obviously is going to be difficult.

Your point appears to be that it has been cooler than usual for a few weeks. That is not much evidence for anything.

Here in Melbourne, it has been hotter than usual in autumn. This heat has been a record that has smashed all previous records. This after a record summer. So it's not just feeling hot, the heat has been measured and reported on. It's not just hot, it's record breaking hot. Did your cool weather break any records? Like I said, hot records are outnumbering cool records three to one. Thats an excellent indicator of global warming.
 
Way to miss all the points, as well as the articles I linked to.

Good for you using solar. As somebody once said, if they could charge you for solar power, everybody would have solar collectors on their roofs.

Since it threatens the fossil fuel/power cabals, solar is not supported by the US government.
 
Since it threatens the fossil fuel/power cabals, solar is not supported by the US government.

The US Government does support all forms of energy, some of which are unlikely candidates [algae-to-fuels]. Solar is supported only too well in the case of Solyndra.
Fossil fuels are also supported with the idea being that more efficient use of fossil resources is a good thing. They even support CO2 capture and underground sequestration from fossil fuel combustion, which is also unlikely in the near term unless used for enhanced oil recovery.
 
Since it threatens the fossil fuel/power cabals, solar is not supported by the US government.
Whoops, r-j, you need to do some basic research before making such a simple error. The US government supports solar power. A quick Goole gives How To Get Renewable Energy Grant Money from the U.S. Government :eye-poppi!
There is a policy for the US military to cut themesleves off from your fantasy of "fossil fuel/power cabals":
White Sands becomes US Army’s largest solar power system
The US Army today dedicated its largest solar photovoltaic system at White Sands Missile Range. The ceremony was led by Brigadier General Gwen Bingham, who was joined by the Honorable Katherine Hammack, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment.
From 2012: U.S. Military's Big Plan For Renewable Energy Projects
The U.S. Department of Defense plans to open up 16 million acres of its land for renewable energy development, which it hopes will create a boom of solar, wind and geothermal projects and provide clean power to military bases, the department announced Monday

The Department of Energy Loans Office has loaned out $34.5 billion dollars that has generated ~60,000 jobs.
The Financing Force Behind America’s Clean Energy Economy
 
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Well, how comes you (aleCc, Megalodon Buckardo) don't cringe just a little when you claim that who does not interpret results as you do is not a scientist or a poor one.

He never said anything of the sort. A real scientist would either agree with the established literature or make their own contribution. The "scientists" you invented for your example did neither. If such a person were real, we would be justified in calling them a poor scientist.


Natural Sciences, as opposed to religion, are full of debates on results (did you know this?).


The literature is full of many debates, but it isn't full of THIS debate and hasn't been for decades.

The real difference between science and religion is that science moves on, it doesn't hold onto ideas for decades or centuries after they are no longer supportable. Science requires evidence to re-open a debate, it doesn't do so simply because someone who doesn't even participate in the process finds the results unpalatable..
 
Well, how comes you (aleCc, Megalodon Buckardo) don't cringe just a little when you claim that who does not interpret results as you do is not a scientist or a poor one.
Well, I guess that everyone here (aleCc, Megalodon Buckardo and now me?) is cringing at your inability to understand what science is about.

The claim is that if someone disagrees with the scientific consensus (not us but actual climate scientist :jaw-dropp!) then they better have a solid scientific basis for that. If they do not have a solid scientific basis then they are not a scientist or a poor one.

We are so sure that climate is changing (warming) through human activities because we know that 97% of climate scientists say that it is warming.
Scientific opinion on climate change
The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is more than 90% certain that humans are causing it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[1][2][3][4] This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.

Many of us have also looked at the science behind this consensus (read the thread).
 
Way to miss all the points, as well as the articles I linked to.
Sorry r-j, but you seem to be missing the point.
You linked to articles aout climate.
But your "point" is a cold winter in Florida - that is weather. It will be decades before we know if this weather is a normal variation or calused by climate change.
 
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Oh this says quite well what I have observed over the last few years.
Originally Posted by Malcolm Kirkpatrick
We agree completely, except for the "climate denier" term. No one objects to the abstraction "climate" or to the assertion that climate changes over time. Here: "The clear distinction between a scientist and a climate denier (or indeed anyone who has pre-decided what they want) is that the scientist needs very good reasons for discarding or selecting data whereas the denier just needs to know what result they want" we agree completely. We just differ as to which people these words describe.

Interesting observation of yours. I there anybody here you regard as "discarding or selecting data" because they have "pre-decided what they want"? Apart from the usual suspects we can all agree on, of course. Further to that, what data do you feel is being discarded that you regard as evidence against AGW being a real and significant problem?

Like what we saw in the last few days. I answered the unscientific musings about why the topic was dead, by joking that maybe everybody was stuck in the snow and cold up north. (and as I type the snow is still coming down)
Maybe you should just leave off the joking because it doesn't seem to be your strong suit. I still can't see the joke after you've pointed out there is one.

You can see the response to that. which wasn't basded on science, or even data.
That's not usually the sort of response one seeks with a joke. Like I say, maybe the subject isn't your natural thing.

Then I pointed out winters have been trending down, and we see unscientific comments, including denial of the records.
You claim that winters are getting colder but that simply isn't so. In a global sense it doesn't even mean anything. In a hemispheric sense it isn't so. Even on a North American sense it isn't so.

Are you then referring to Florida? Is it even true there? Are you quite sure you're not using data you'd be better off discarding like a Monckton graph?

When I show how the last few weeks have been record cold, more denial. That winters have turned really cold, and the trend is colder winters, isn't in dispute. Yet we see denial here over it.
Why not deny what isn't so? It may have been record cold in Florida recently (really? record cold?), but why would anyone bother to deny that anyway since it signifies nothing?

Or, if it's impossible to deny, then the "deniers" start saying it was global warming that caused the cold.
Are they denying the cold or explaining it? It can't be both. OK, for the likes of Watts it can, but not here. People leap on that sort of thing.

The behaviour of the jetstream is what determines how far south cold air gets in winter (and how far north warm air gets; Nature abhors a vacuum). As the temperature gradient reduces between equator and poles the jetstream makes larger excursions and cold air can get as far as Florida when it wouldn't have in earlier times. This is theory : you're seeing the practice. For a few weeks.

Shameless, and not scientific. It's not hurting the climate skeptic, it's hurting the credibility of real climate science. I am concerned that the more strident and alarmists climate boys are poisoning the well, or whatever it is when you ruin any chance for the real dangers of climate change to be heard.
Perhaps you could take the opportunity to air the real dangers now?

Or acted upon. The lunatics seem to drown out the real science. That is a bad thing for science.
On that we can agree when the lunatics get control of the GOP and the run of the Murdoch media (not to mention the Daily Mail, Telegraph, Express and WSJ to name a few) along with false balance in the rest of a media which is generally ignorant of science.

The scientific message does get out there, though. Not everybody chooses to listen, of course, but waddya gonna do?
 
The unscientific continues.

Of course the science is being ignored. By the deniers.


http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135

http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9084487#post9084487
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/cl...r-summers-cause-colder-winters-scientists-say

More snow, especially early in the fall, has a feedback effect where the white snow reflects the sun, causing faster cooling, which leads to more snow, and the snow doesn't melt, so we get this amplification and it gets colder.

Colder, not warmer. And it is the warmer summers, and declining sea ice that may be causing the early snow.

So you've read the popular science and do understand the mechanism. At least we can leave that aside.

So global warming has been making the winters colder (a clear trend), especially in February, which shows the most drastic decline of average temperatures.
A clear trend since when? 2008? You think that's enough to declare a trend?

]One thing you're missing is that what we've been seeing is cold episodes, not cold winters. You yourself have said that winter in Florida was warm until the last few weeks. Your claim that "winters have been getting colder" needs some data to back it up, even for the Northern Hemisphere.
While this was obviously missed by almost every climate expert ...[/quote]

Obviously missed by almost every climate expert? Where's your data for that? Since they are climate experts they will obviously not have missed it, especially since :

a few have been predicting this. For decades.

You may have missed it (almost certainly did) but climate experts didn't.
Ii's been in the published science for decades, which makes it even more obvious that climate experts will have heard of it.

Now that everybody knows it's happening ...
No point trying to conceal it any longer, eh?

... the climate experts are now switching, and publishing about how global warming is causing colder winters.
Tell me how these studies of recent winters could have been performed and published before these episodes. I doubt I'm alone in wanting to hear that.

The sad thing is how this is being used to say all climate predictions mean nothing, when in fact it is how science advances. Once you know your theory is wrong, you change it.
What theory do you imagine has been changed, or should that be "switched from"? What was a hypothesis developed on models has now been supported by events. Nothing was going to prevent the deniers reacting exactly as they have done and will do whenever there's snow in winter. Remember Inhofe's igloo?

That is science. Not denial of what is being observed.
Indeed it is. Remind me, what is it that you think climate scientists have been denying?

Which is why the poor fool who still insists winters are warming is the real denier.
Where did you find the data which suggests otherwise?
 
It seems I was correct, and nobody in this topic actually knows what is happening with the winter temperatures. That's a sad reflection on the so very active boys constantly posting, and being insulting.

The really sad thing is, when you realize you are wrong, it won't matter a bit. But I think it's just true ignorance, not denial. As soon as you come to terms with what is real, you will simply switch your tune, and claim you knew all along.

I suggest you spend more time learning, and less time pretending you know it all.
 
It seems I was correct, and nobody in this topic actually knows what is happening with the winter temperatures. That's a sad reflection on the so very active boys constantly posting, and being insulting.

The really sad thing is, when you realize you are wrong, it won't matter a bit. But I think it's just true ignorance, not denial. As soon as you come to terms with what is real, you will simply switch your tune, and claim you knew all along.

I suggest you spend more time learning, and less time pretending you know it all.


What the Hell are you talking about?
 
If you couldn't grasp it the first time, repeating it won't really help.

Winters have been getting colder.

See? Now, after we all get over the shock, we can start complaining about global warming while we are buried in snow.

At least not everyone here is unable to follow a link and read!

If it's the underlying warming that's causing the changes in weather patterns that are resulting in some areas experiencing more severe winters - and the evidence is pretty compelling that it is - then the solution to the problem of rooves collapsing from record snow and not being able to get a flight or even drive anywhere is to tackle the underlying warming, yes.

I'm sorry if that's too much for some people to wrap their heads round, but there are many aspects of reality that are counterintuitive.

That is an understatement. With the 21st winter storm going on, and the 22nd coming on, and winter being over, it's got to be hard to sell the old global warming story. "Old" in this sense meaning "out of date and worn out".

Warming making it colder may seem like a tough concept, especially after all the years of saying the reverse, but it can be done. Evidence is always going to trump anything else.
 
Whoops, r-j, you need to do some basic research before making such a simple error. The US government supports solar power.

While somewhat off topic, I was talking about the homeowner or business using solar. There is almost zero support for that in Florida, where solar is abundant.

But that has nothing to do with global warming.
 
You claim that winters are getting colder but that simply isn't so.
I am not claiming anything. What I said is based on all the official records of temperature, which if you bother to check you will see for yourself. Same for everyone else here. Try reading a real science source, not Wikipedia or realclimate

The behaviour of the jetstream is what determines how far south cold air gets in winter (and how far north warm air gets; Nature abhors a vacuum).
You don't know what you are talking about. One reason for not getting your information from some blog.

As the temperature gradient reduces between equator and poles the jetstream makes larger excursions and cold air can get as far as Florida when it wouldn't have in earlier times. This is theory : you're seeing the practice. For a few weeks.

Utter nonsense. You obviously read such tripe on the internet. try talking to somebody who actually has a degree.

Of course if you insist you are correct, just post a real science source that supports your crazy idea.

We would love to see this.
 
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If you couldn't grasp it the first time, repeating it won't really help.





At least not everyone here is unable to follow a link and read!

Actually, I was referring to your first paragraph, which you posted immediately after CapelDodger answered your incoherent "cold winter" prattle comprehensively, and with far less dismissiveness than it deserved.

Warming making it colder may seem like a tough concept, especially after all the years of saying the reverse, but it can be done. Evidence is always going to trump anything else.

This is rich, given your posting history in this thread. Are you really all of a sudden convinced that AGW is real? Or are you deliberately talking out of both sides of your mouth in an attempt to **** with us?
 
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I am not claiming anything. What I said is based on all the official records of temperature, which if you bother to check you will see for yourself. Same for everyone else here. Try reading a real science source, not Wikipedia or realclimate

You don't know what you are talking about. One reason for not getting your information from some blog.



Utter nonsense. You obviously read such tripe on the internet. try talking to somebody who actually has a degree.

Of course if you insist you are correct, just post a real science source that supports your crazy idea.

We would love to see this.



You don't know who you're talking to, do you, hypocrite? Do you have any idea what causes the jetstream? Would you like to guess what subject my degree is in?
 
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Talk is cheap. Show us some science that proves the jet stream acts like what was claimed. I would love to see it.

According to that opinion, back when the arctic was much colder than now, cold fronts wouldn't dip south into Florida.

What a hoot.
 
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I am not claiming anything. What I said is based on all the official records of temperature, which if you bother to check you will see for yourself.

The official record of temperatures in the US was posted a page or two back. Winter temperatures in the US, like most of the world, are getting warmer not colder as you claimed based on a short spell of below normal temperatures in Florida.
 
Talk is cheap. Show us some science that proves the jet stream acts like what was claimed. I would love to see it.

According to that opinion, back when the arctic was much colder than now, cold fronts wouldn't dip south into Florida.

What a hoot.


http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/FrancisVavrus2012.pdf

[1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.


And I didn't even break a sweat, Sport. It's not that hard. But by all means, keep talking -- your ignorance is providing all manner of schadenfreude.
 
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